Archive for the ‘Elections’ Category

South Carolina CD1 Election Fallout

Wednesday, May 8th, 2013

A roundup of interesting commentary on Mark Sanford’s defeat of Elizabeth Colbert-Busch in the SC1 special election:

  • Erick Erickson on Mark Sanford’s victory: “[Colbert-Busch] opted out of most debate opportunities. Instead of debating her, Mark Sanford toured the district with a life-sized cutout of Nancy Pelosi. It worked.” More: “Between Bill Clinton and Kermit Gosnell, no one would ever accuse the Democrats of being for family values.”
  • Human Events joins the smackdown parade:

    “We gave it a heck of a fight,” Colbert Busch said in her concession speech. No, you didn’t. You were obliterated by the most beatable Republican in the House. Between campaign and independent spending, you blew upwards of $2 million, and got trounced by a candidate the National Republican Congressional Committee refused to support. You ran a weak, lazy campaign that never had much to say beyond harping on Sanford’s extramarital affair, and reminding voters that your brother is a TV star, while he threw himself furiously into shoe-leather retail politics. Sanford was still holding public events on Election Day, while you were nowhere to be found. You backed away from a crucial debate opportunity, leaving Sanford to own the stage by debating a cardboard cutout of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. It’s hard to imagine how you could have fought less for the seat, short of holding all your campaign events by closed-circuit TV from your brother’s house.

    More:

    The mythical backlash against opponents of gun control didn’t materialize to help Colbert Busch, which should only come as a surprise to those who take liberal media manipulation seriously. She took labor union money, which wasn’t going to endear her to voters in the state where unions tried to kill a Boeing plant. Between the ObamaCare disaster, the failure of their Sequester Terror efforts to cudgel more taxes out of the American people, and the gathering Benghazi storm, the Democrat Party isn’t looking its best at the moment…I would imagine we’ll be hearing a lot about Nancy Pelosi in tight 2014 races.

  • How the MSM carried Colbert-Busch’s water:

    What we see here is another refutation of what I’ve called a “beautiful little fairy tale that liberals tell themselves,” that the American public is broadly supportive of their worldview, and they only lose because Republicans manage to Jedi-Mind-Trick the electorate into caring about distractions, silliness, and those irrelevant ‘wedge issues.’…The fairy tale is that Americans, deep down, really agree with liberals on all of these issues and would heartily embrace their agenda if only these side issues, scandals, and manufactured distractions would just get out of the way. But the electorate doesn’t always think liberal ideas are better, and we may argue that they rarely do.

    More: “Today you’re hearing a lot of talk along the lines of, ‘Oh, everyone knew this was a really conservative district and that Sanford would probably win.’ Well, you don’t spend more than $2 million ($1.2 million in donations to Colbert Busch, more than $929,000 on independent expenditures against Sanford) for a race you know you can’t win.”

  • PPP’s polls were not exactly oracular: “At one point, PPP had Colbert Busch ahead by nine points…The fact that Sanford, a deeply flawed candidate, substantially outperformed the polls is just one data point. But it suggests that the Obama phenomenon may not be easily replicable. If that is the case, 2014 could look a lot like 2010.”
  • Colbert-Busch sucked as a campaigner. “At a Chamber of Commerce forum last week, the Democrat delivered four minutes of remarks and was then hustled out of the room by a team of handlers.”
  • MSM reports of Mark Sanford’s political demise were notably premature.
  • Heh. “Any time a Democrat white woman related to a famous man as the source of her fame fails to excite Democrat turnout, I chalk up a double victory for the GOP.”
  • Sandford Beats Colbert-Busch

    Tuesday, May 7th, 2013

    In the South Carolina First Congressional District race. In fact, it wasn’t even particularly close.

    Stephen Colbert may be America, but his sister can’t be a U.S. Representative on his coattails.

    Democratic Donor Marc Rosenthal Convicted

    Monday, March 25th, 2013

    From Holly Hansen comes word that Austin attorney and Democratic donor Marc Rosenthal was found guilty of 13 felony counts, including racketeering conspiracy, mail fraud and tampering with a proceeding.

    Holly did a great job looking at his state donations, but I wanted to take a gander at his national contributions as well.

    He gave $2,300 to Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar in 2008, and another $2,000 in 2010. He also donated $2,000 to Democratic U.S. congressmen Crio Rodriguez in March of 2008 (presumably for the Democratic primary), and then another $2,300 (the maximum donation) in October.

    Going back further, Rosenthal donated:

  • $2,000 to John Edwards in 2003 (I know, a wealthy Democratic trial lawyer supporting a wealthy Democratic trial lawyer for President. Try to contain your shock.)
  • Three separate donations of $1,000 to John Kerry in 2004.
  • $1,000 to Richard Raymond in 2005 (I’m assuming the Texas State Representative for Laredo).
  • $1,000 to Lloyd Doggett in 2004.
  • And $1,000 to Al Gore in 1999.
  • Here in Texas, we tend to convict people for felony jury tampering, no matter how many Democrats they’ve donated to.

    I’m sure this fact has absolutely nothing to do with trial lawyer and big Democratic donor Steve Mostyn suddenly deciding to move most of his practice to New York City…

    Ted Cruz Announces New PAC

    Saturday, March 16th, 2013

    Ted Cruz has announced he’s forming a new Jobs Growth & Freedom Fund PAC. Or rather, will be announcing it at 4:10 PM Eastern Time at CPAC. (You can watch Cruz’s address live.) “Our mission is to elect strong conservatives and to build a Republican Senate Majority in 2014.”

    Cruz is “paying it forward,” since endorsements from Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservative Fund and the Club for Growth were hugely important in gaining early momentum in Cruz’s Republican primary fight. So far I think Cruz has done an excellent job as senator, so I kicked in a few shekels myself.

    George P. Bush Running for Land Commissioner

    Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

    George Prescott Bush filed the official paperwork Tuesday to run for Texas land commissioner next year.”

    That would be Jeb Bush’s son, Bush43′s nephew, and Bush41′s grandson, one of the “little brown ones.” The Bush name alone is probably enough to win him the office, but add to that the fact that the Bush family has one of the most powerful money machines in all politics and you have a prohibitive favorite. Jerry Patterson was probably right to think he’d have an easier time defeating a post-Senate-race-meltdown David Dewhurst for Lt. Governor.

    Deeper analysis of a continuing Bush dynasty, and of how Democrats and the press react to facing a Bush scion who happens to be Hispanic, will have to wait until (at least) tomorrow.

    LinkSwarm for February 22, 2013

    Friday, February 22nd, 2013

    Enjoy your now-traditional Friday LinkSwarm:

  • Moody’s strips the UK of it’s AAA bond rating. For all the left-wing hand-wringing about “austerity,” Cameron’s government was still running big deficits, just not as big as Labour’s (or ours).
  • Bill introduced in Washington State to allow police to go house-to-house conducting warrentless searches for guns.
  • Smart Bomb drug approved. Let me know when they finally approve the Inviso drug, and we can finally finish off those pesky mutants.
  • China’s “Yellowed Pearls”. “‘Pretty girls do not need a lot of education to marry into a rich and powerful family. But girls with an average or ugly appearance will find it difficult,’ reads an excerpt from an article titled, Leftover Women Do Not Deserve Our Sympathy, posted on the website of the All-China Federation of Women in March 2011. ‘These girls hope to further their education in order to increase their competitiveness. The tragedy is, they don’t realise that as women age, they are worth less and less. So by the time they get their MA or PhD, they are already old – like yellowed pearls.’” And how old is too old in China? 27 years old. 27?!?! What self-respecting man could possibly love the withered, wrinkled, desiccated husk of a woman who’s reached the doddering, shriveled, decrepit age of 27? Why not just marry a mummy and be done with it?.
  • Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis.”
  • ObamaCare exchange costs up 29%…before the first one has even opened.
  • The left’s racists are out to get Ted Cruz.
  • Bag bans are killing people. Well, that won’t be the first time that liberal ecomadness has killed people.
  • Can Democrats mess with Texas in 2016? Short answer: No, but state GOP Chair Steve Munisteri is taking the threat seriously.
  • New charges against accused Plano pipeline bomber Anson Chi.
  • Abbott Rising

    Thursday, January 31st, 2013

    There’s much news about Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott as of late, so I’m just going to put it all here in this big virtual pile:

  • First, Abbott now has a hefty $18 million in his campaign fund, fueling speculation that he will be running for governor in 2014.
  • Rick Perry claims that if Perry runs again, Abbott won’t run against him, and that they’ve actually discussed this. Maybe. And maybe Perry’s not running again (he says he’ll decide in June or July). But frequently people have been known to misremember conversations, and politicians have been known to change their minds….
  • Matt S. Dowling interviewed Abbott about Second Amendment issues. As you would expect from an avid hunter, he comes down firmly on the pro-Second Amendment side of things.
  • He also did an interview on the same subject with Robbie Cooper of Urban Grounds.
  • And speaking of Abbott and guns, here’s an interview he did at last year’s NRA national convention:
  • Well, Who Hasn’t Misplaced $600,000?

    Thursday, January 17th, 2013

    Top David Dewhurst campaign aide Kenneth “Buddy” Barfield has been accused of embezzling at least $600,000 from the Dewhurst campaign, starting all the way back in 2008. (This news evidently first came to light December 28, but I was distracted by tidings of comfort and joy.)

    I’ll just wait a moment while that sinks in. $600,000 is pretty freaking big chunk of change. It’s only a little bit less than Democratic Senate nominee Paul Sadler raised during his entire campaign. I can’t imagine how Barfield thought such a sum wouldn’t be noticed, even in such a cash-flush environment as Team Dewhurst. The news reports don’t entirely make clear whether the funds were embezzled from Dewhurst’s 2010 Lt. Governor re-election campaign, his losing 2012 Senate run, or both, since Barfield worked on both.

    Some articles suggest that Barfield embezzled the funds to make up for losses on business deals.

    There was also this:

    There also were reports of friction between Barfield and others on Dewhurst’s campaign team over what strategy to use against rival Ted Cruz before the GOP Senate primary.

    While some thought it best to ignore Cruz as much as possible, Barfield pushed for the campaign to sharpen its attacks on Cruz, efforts that many analysts now believe were too exaggerated and turned voters against Dewhurst.

    So the guy stealing money from the campaign was also the guy who managed to lose the campaign.

    How convenient.

    I think the embezzlement is a symptom of the disorder within the Dewhurst campaign, not the cause. Having a flush campaign papers over many flaws, but if a guy steals $600,000 from you over four years, you have some serious oversight problems. I think that if someone stole $600,000 from me, I would notice, even if I were a quarter-billionaire.

    Of course, as of this moment Barfield does not appear to have been indicted, much less convicted. But if true, the story should really give hope to Jerry Patterson and anyone else gunning for Dewhurst’s current job, as it suggests that Dewhurst’s attention to detail is somewhat less than total…

    Brief Impressions of the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s 2013 Policy Orientation

    Monday, January 14th, 2013

    I enjoyed attending what little I could of the Texas Public Policy Foundation 2013 policy orientation held January 9-11. Here are a few quick and largely random impressions:

    Because I just started a new day job, I wasn’t able to attend until Thursday evening, which meant I got to enjoy Austin’s lovely rush-hour traffic on Mopac and only got to hear about half of Ted Cruz’s pre-recorded message. (Cruz was originally scheduled to appear with Sen. John Cornyn, but had to fly off to Afghanistan and Israel on a Senate Foreign Relations trip. Cruz also appeared at lunch that day, a session I was unable to attend.) Then it was time for Texas’ senior U.S. Senator, John Cornyn, to be interviewed.

    He defended the Fiscal Cliff deal as necessary to avoid a huge tax increase. He talked about the Senate’s inability to pass a budget. “Shame doesn’t work on Harry Reid.”

    On foreign and defense policy, he noted (correctly) that keeping the American people safe is the number one responsibility of government. Cornyn says he’s opposing the nomination of Chuck Hagel and dinged Obama over Benghazi. “If the President and his Administration had been honest about Benghazi, they’re wouldn’t have been a scandal.” (Paraphrased.)

    Cornyn also displayed a certain tone-deafness in regard to his audience. When asked to mention possible 2016 GOP Presidential candidates, the first name Cornyn mentioned was NJ Governor Chris Christie, which drew audible groans and hisses from the audience, for good reason.

    After the Cornyn speech there was a blogger met-and-great at Rivals Steakhouse. I met a bevy of state Reps whose names quickly blurred together, as well as Ashley Sewell, AKA @TXTrendyChick, who I had already been following on Twitter, and a bunch of other bloggers. Most interesting bit of off-the-record gossip: Confirmation of my Rick Perry hopped-up on goofballs theory. “When I saw him running around Iowa in flats I knew he was in a lot of pain. The man practically sleeps in boots.”

    On Friday, I took a long lunch to attend the Newt Gingrich luncheon and signing. I sat one seat down from the indefatigable Holly Hansen (who has her own, far more extensive coverage), and @TXTrendyChick promptly plopped down between us. Obviously our table was the place to be.

    I get to hang out with all the cool chicks!

    Lt. Governor David Dewhurst was Gingrich’s warm-up speaker. Dewhurst has improved somewhat since his losing Senate race against Ted Cruz last year, but he’s still not a natural speaker. He tries to cram too many policy points into a speech, and isn’t skilled enough to distinguish between major and minor points. When it comes to conservative policy, he seems to know the words, but doesn’t hear the music.

    Dewhurst’s four points as to why Texas is doing better than any other state (1. We keep our spending low, 2. Keep our taxes low, 3. A light regulatory hand, and 4. Keep state government out of the way) were all very solid. He also promised additional budget cutting; let’s hope he follows through.

    Most interesting parts of Dewhurst’s speech: A clumsily-phrased plea for welfare reform (“I’m not going to pay people to sit on the couch and do drugs,” a proclamation that will no doubt disappoint many members of Occupy Wall Street), and a proposal to arm teachers in the classroom.

    Gingrich came on stage to a standing ovation. He said it was unfair for other states to compete with Texas, since we weren’t raising taxes and spending like California. (This is what people call “sarcasm.”)

    This was definitely Gingrich 2.0 (or maybe 8.6), an idea-a-minute futurist (I’d like to see him and Bruce Sterling bounce off each other for a couple of hours someday). He was saying things about America 2.0, ubiquitous diagnostic cell phones as a health care initiative, having the programmers behind World of Warcraft come up with ways to teach our kids, and puters mkn kdz wrt btr (I iz skptical). It was even more scatter-shot than Dewhurst, but seemed a lot more organic. And he had one truly fascinating factoid: Students taking Stanford’s online classes did better on tests than the ones taking classes in person.

    Gingrich seems genuinely optimistic about America’s future, which is a nice contrast with many of us after the 2012 election.

    After the speech I managed to get him to sign two books for me, To Renew America, and Jim Wright’s Reflections of a Public Man, which he was quite amused by.

    A few more luminaries:

    State Senator Larry Taylor

    State Rep Marsha Farney

    A very dapper Chuck DeVore. He wasn’t born in Texas, but he got here as quickly as he could.

    Hey girl, it’s Josh Trevino!

    Apologies to anyone I didn’t mention, didn’t run into, or didn’t get a picture of (some just didn’t come out well). It was a busy two days!

    And congratulations to TPPF honcho David Guenthner and his many minions, for all the hard work in carrying this off:

    In addition to the copy of Texas Got it Right handed out to everyone, David thrust a copy of DeVore’s The Texas Model: Prosperity in the Lone Star State into my hands. Hopefully I’ll have a chance to say more about both in the not-so-distant future.

    Step 1: Stop the Hispanicing

    Monday, December 17th, 2012

    I’ve held off on offering up immediate judgment on the election because I’m incredibly lazy to get past the panic and knee-jerk reactions. The world hasn’t ended, Republicans are not doomed to permanent minority status, and the cause of smaller government is not lost forever. Go over that list of bright spots again. Republicans did not do as badly as they did in 1932, 1964, 2006 or 2008. And we survived those elections, just as the Democrats survived 1994, 2004, and 2010. We’ll survive this one.

    One persistent theme in a lot of recaps is how badly Republicans did among Hispanic voters, and that Republicans must immediately cave on the issue of illegal alien amnesty to have any chance of courting Hispanic votes. Though no one can dispute that Republicans need to do better among Hispanics, much of the panic over the 2012 Hispanic vote (and the resulting predictable knee-jerk push for amnesty among prominent RINOs) has been overblown, for a number of reasons:

  • First, we don’t actually know how well Republicans did among Hispanics because the AP and the networks decided not to do detailed exit polling in Texas and 18 other states, the vast majority of them red states. Thus we don’t know the true percentage of Hispanics who voted for Republicans, as states where Republicans would do better among Hispanics have been systematically excluded from the count.
  • The Hispanic vote did not cost Romney the election.
  • Romney did worse than Bush not only among Hispanics, but among several other demographic groups, most notably white voters.
  • There are several reasons to doubt liberals’ demographics are destiny theory.
  • Those who think that caving on illegal alien amnesty is the key to Republicans winning Hispanic votes are deluding themselves.
  • Indeed, it’s more likely to destroy Republican competitiveness for the foreseeable future.
  • So take a deep breath. Republicans are far better off trying to pitch the ideas of freedom and limited government to Hispanics, and running conservative Republican candidate who happen to be Hispanic like Ted Cruz, than transparent and incompetent pandering via illegal alien amnesty.