Archive for the ‘Elections’ Category

More Post-Election Tidbits

Monday, November 10th, 2014

A few more bits of 2014 election analysis:

  • Instapundit offers up six bills a Republican congress should pass. Can’t disagree with any of them.
  • How the Obama years have hollowed out the Democratic Party. “The more serious problem for Democrats is the drubbing they’ve taken in the states, the breeding ground for future national talent and for policy experimentation. Republicans have unified control—the governorship and the legislature—in 23 states.”
  • “The core tenets of the blue model as a basic governing philosophy are in much deeper trouble than many of the operatives and thinkers of the Democratic Party are prepared to admit.”
  • Wendy Davis was the face of the Democrat’s “War On Women” narrative, and she got slaughtered like a fat heifer.
  • Indeed, it’s been a rough week for all the Democrat’s “War on Women” mascots.
  • Democrats also got nothing from their incessant attacks on the Koch brothers. I just can’t imagine why their “your billionaires are evil but our billionaires are above reproach” strategy wasn’t a hit with voters…
  • Speaking of which: “There are many reasons to celebrate the Republican party surge in the US mid-term elections but for me they boil down to two words: ‘Tom’ and ‘Steyer.’
  • And wondering on Twitter why there wasn’t a Tom Steyer Downfall parody, I found out there were two:

  • Two Dissections of Democrats’ Failure to Turn Texas Blue

    Thursday, November 6th, 2014

    Enjoy these two moderately lengthy dissections of liberal failures to turn Texas blue:

    First, here’s this Jay Root/Texas Tribune piece by way of the Washington Post on why Wendy Davis lost the election. The piece soft-peddles Davis’ incompetence as a campaigner, and fails to mention her comparative unpopularity with Hispanics and the overall failure of the Democratic Party’s “War on Women” campaign strategy, of which Davis was a central piece, but is otherwise reasonably accurate.

    Second, here’s a piece on just how comprehensive Battleground Texas’ failure was. It also goes into down-ballot failures for Battleground Texas that I haven’t had time to look at yet:

    In House District 23, which even Republican Party of Texas Chairman Steve Munisteri had described as “neck-and-neck,” Democrat Susan Criss lost to Republican Wayne Faircloth by nearly 10 points. Rodney Anderson, the Republican candidate, bested Democrat Susan Motley by more than 12 points in House District 105. And incumbent state Rep. Philip Cortez, D-San Antonio, was toppled by Republican Rick Galindo, who lost by nearly 6 points.

    The piece also notes that, for all the money Battleground Texas put into the Wendy Davis campaign, she finished a whopping two points above Democratic Agriculture Commissioner nominee Jim Hogan, who didn’t campaign at all.

    Hat tip: Erick Erickson, who notes “bring down a bunch of liberal yankees who hate the ROTC, traditional values, the Alamo, and Texas itself and you’re setting the stage for disaster.” Also “Battleground Texas claims they are not going away. Thank goodness. They should stick around and serve as a money sink for guys like Tom Steyer lest that money go to other states.”

    Erickson touches on something I want to expand upon, namely the obvious distaste in-state liberal elites show for all manner of Texas traditions. Even when they embrace “moderate” positions on, say, gun control or energy regulation, they give off the reek of patronizing condescension. You always get the impression that these people would rather be living in New York City or San Francisco than anyplace in Texas. No matter how much they proclaim a love of football, cowboy boots or country music, they always give the impression of going through the motions as a sop for those gun-toting redneck freaks of JesusLand. (Bob Bullock was probably the last major Texas Democrat who seemed like he wasn’t faking it, and Anne Richards was the last one who was able to fake it convincingly.) Their real constituents are not Texans, but the left-wing politicians, trial lawyers, national media and urban elites who make up the liberal overclass.

    Texas Statewide Race Oddities

    Wednesday, November 5th, 2014

    With all the votes in, we can start analyzing some of odder aspects of the Texas statewide race results.

    For those watching the race, it’s no surprise that (discounting 2006′s strange four-way race) Wendy Davis was the worst-performing Democratic gubernatorial candidate this century. The surprising thing is that, as bad as she was, Davis was the Democrat’s best statewide candidate this year. Her 38.9% was the highest statewide vote percentage by any Texas Democrat in 2014. Leticia Van de Putte’s 38.7% was the second highest. Otherwise statewide Democratic candidates ranged from a low of 34.3% for invisible Senate candidate David Alameel to a high of 38% for Attorney General candidate Sam Houston.

    Possible explanations:

  • Perhaps Wendy Davis’ antics didn’t cause people to switch so much as it caused Democrats to stay home entirely.
  • Perhaps in lower-pofile races people felt free to vote for third party candidates.
  • Perhaps there is indeed a staunchly “pro-abortion Republican” segment of the Texas electorate, but evidence suggests that, if so, it ranges from 0.5% to 1% of the total…
  • And those who said Abbott would outpoll Dan Patrick were right…but only by 1.2%.

    Abbott took ten counties that Bill White won in 2010: Harris, Bexar, Brooks, Culberson, Falls, Foard, Kleberg, La Salle, Reeves and Trinity. Harris (Houston) and Bexar (San Antonio) are the 800-pound gorillas on that list. In 2012, Ted Cruz won Harris by 2% (while Romney was edged there by a thousand votes) while losing Bexar by 4%. For a while Democrats were able to stay competitive statewide by racking up big margins in those urban counties even while they were losing rural and suburban counties. If Republicans can now win those counties outright, it may be a long, long time before a Democrat can win statewide again.

    Two statewide Republican candidates got more votes than Abbott’s 2,790,227: Senator John Cornyn and Land Commissioner-elect George P. Bush. The rest of the country may suffer from Bush-fatigue (though I imagine that it’s now dwarfed by Obama-fatigue), but you’d be hard-pressed to find signs of it in Texas…

    Since Democrats failed to contest three statewide court races, both the Libertarian and Green parties reached the minimum 5% threshold to maintain ballot access in 2016.

    Shockingly, David Weigel actually brings the wood when discussing Battleground Texas:

    “These are the greatest geniuses of data in the f**king world and they can’t figure out that less people voted?” asked Carney. “Every publicly pronounced goal of Battleground, every one, has been an abject failure.”

    (snip)

    Davis only out-performed the 2010 ticket in her home base of Tarrant County (Ft. Worth).

    Oh, and it got worse. Abbott’s campaign said throughout the campaign that it would poach Latino voters, especially in the Rio Grande valley. A quick look at a Texas map might tell you that Abbott failed. Not quite true. Perry had lost Hidalgo County (McAllen) by 34 points; Abbott kept the margin down to 28 points. Perry had lost Webb County by 53 points; Abbott lost it by 39. In exit polling, Perry ended up pulling only 38 percent of the Latino vote. Abbott won 44 percent of it, about what was expected in a Texas Tribune poll that Davis allies tried to debunk. Abbott actually won Latino men, 50-49 over Davis. The Democratic wane and Republican outreach helped oust Rep. Pete Gallego, elected in 2012 in a district that sprawled across most of the border. He won 96,477 votes that year; he won only 55,436 this year, allowing black Republican Will Hurd to win, despite being out-fundraised 2-1.

    Weigel may be a partisan, but at least he can read a spreadsheet…

    Midday Post-Election Roundup

    Wednesday, November 5th, 2014

    A few quick post-election links:

  • Here’s a really solid Washington Post insider piece on how Republicans won, and Democrats lost, the election. “From the outset of the campaign, Republicans had a simple plan: Don’t make mistakes, and make it all about Obama, Obama, Obama.” That piece is also notable for David Krone, Reid’s chief of staff, going on record at how Obama screwed them. “The disagreements underscored a long-held contention on Capitol Hill that Obama’s political operation functioned purely for the president’s benefit and not for his party’s.” Read the whole thing.
  • The supposedly ascendant Obama coalition is intermittent and unstable.
  • “Tuesday’s voting was a wave alright—a very anti-Democratic wave.” Among the myths exploded: It wouldn’t be about Obama or ObamaCare, and women or their ground game would save Democrats.
  • Mickey Kaus notes that almost all Democrats who supported illegal alien amnesty lost.
  • “28 senators who voted for Obamacare and won’t be part of new Senate.”
  • “The actual truth is that Obama simply doesn’t do his job, because he is lazy, and he refuses to do the non-glamorous, non-”fun” parts of his job such as compromising, horsetrading, or working out the details, because he is a committed die-hard ideologue who also suffers from an intense Messianic complex in which he can only be the conquering hero.”
  • Nate Silver: The polls were indeed biased: in favor of Democrats.
  • Who do you think liberals will hate more, Mia Love or Carl DiMaio?
  • Sandra Fluke lost as well.
  • Brief Blurbs on a Brilliant Bloodbath

    Wednesday, November 5th, 2014

    Democrats didn’t just lose last night, they got slaughtered up and down the ballot:

  • Republicans took control of the Senate, flipping seven Senate seats in North Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, South Dakota, Colorado, Montana, Iowa, giving them 52 and control of the Senate. There’s a good chance that will be 54 after runoffs in Louisiana and Alaska.
  • Republicans added at least 12 House seats to their majority, a margin that is likely to grow as late seats finish counting.
  • Republicans picked up at least three governorships.
  • Republicans continued to make massive gains at the state legislative level. “The Republican wave that swept over the states left Democrats at their weakest point in state legislatures since the 1920s.”
  • Here in Texas, not only did Republicans win all statewide races (again), but Abbott beat Wendy Davis not only worse than Rick Perry beat Bill White in 2010, but worse than Perry beat Tony Sanchez in 2002: Sanchez came in at 39.96% of the vote; right now Wendy Davis is at 38.9%. Davis even lost white women by a 2-1 ratio. Battleground Texas bragged about how they were going to turn Texas blue; instead, it got still redder.
  • More later.

    Liveblogging Election Night 2014

    Tuesday, November 4th, 2014


    Davis is currently at 38.1%. Just for the record, I called Wendy Davis dropping below Tony Sanchez’s 39.96% back in September.


    Back

    In local election news, Williamson County Republicans Tony Dale and Larry Gonzalez both won decisively over their Dem challengers.


    OK, I’m heading home. This isn’t a Republican landslide, it’s a Republican tidal wave. Enjoy it now. Tomorrow the hard work begins.


    Congratulations to Greg Abbott on being elected governor of Texas!


    News media now saying Ernst wins and Republicans take control of the senate.


    Republican Joni Ernst takes lead in Iowa.


    A very solid victory speech, with lots of family thanked.


    Wendy Davis called Abbott to congratulate him.


    Nope, family members first. Daughter Cecelia Audrey Abbott.


    Lights went down and they’re about to introduce Abbott.


    Fox just called Kansas Senate race for Republican Roberts.


    Wendy Davis didn’t even win Texas women.


    Right now Wendy Davis is running behind Tony Sanchez’s 39.97% in 2002. $38%.


    Ran into Sen. John Cornyn on my way to the bathroom. Congratulated him. Now he’s being interviewed 3 feet away from me.


    Wisconsin Governor’s race called for Republican Scott Walker.



    Governor Perry speaking after a huge round of applause.


    Whoa!

    Not a shock, but someone calling it this early is.



    Abbott spokesman saying they crushed Democrats AND BattleGround Texas. “Helping them waste their money, the way Democrats always do.”


    Calling West Virginia Senate race for for Republican Capito. Not a surprise, but that’s a flip from D to R.




    Republican Rounds projected to win SD Sen. No surprise.


    Republican Ed Gillispie beating Warner in VA; not final, but if true that would indicate a truly epic Republican wave.


    GOP Sen pickups: Cotton beats Pryor in Arkansas,


    OK, now I’m in on Twitter, but on another browser…


    Hi there! I’m blogging from the Greg Abbott Victory Party at the ACL theater. Can’t seem to get Twitter to take my password, so this may just be LiveBlog rather than LiveTweet.

    Go Vote!

    Tuesday, November 4th, 2014

    Williamson County voting information.

    Travis County polling locations.

    I hope to live tweet/live blog election results tonight.

    Election News Roundup for November 3, 2014

    Monday, November 3rd, 2014

    Election day is tomorrow! Now would be a good time to locate your voter registration card…

  • Democrats come up with a brilliant new strategy to get their voters to the polls: threaten them. And yes, that letter did actually come from the New York Democratic Party. “Nice voter you got there. Be a shame if anything happened to it…”
  • Wendy Davis’ campaign may doom Battleground Texas efforts by alienating Hispanics.
  • “On Tuesday, it is all but inevitable that Greg Abbott’s campaign and Texas voters are going to beat Wendy Davis like a circus monkey.” I think this line is deeply unfair to circuses who treat their monkeys humanely…
  • Yet another area the Wendy Davis campaign isn’t strong in: math. Namely, their bragging that Democratic early voting was up from 2010 was false: “Hours later, the organization had to remove that memo from its website, after it became clear that Battleground Texas was using inaccurately low tallies from 2010.”
  • “Joni Ernst has charged to achieve a 7-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley in a new Iowa Poll, which buoys the GOP’s hope that an Iowa victory will be the tipping point to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate.”
  • Speaking of Ernst, Tom Harkin has a unique pitch to vote against her: “Oh yeah, I’d totally bang that, but you shouldn’t vote for her because (R) and stuff.” Of course, I’m paraphrasing here…
  • Mary Landrieu says she’s unpopular because her Louisiana constituents are lousy, stinking sexist bigots. I’m sure they’ll enjoy hearing that…
  • The Charlotte Observer memory holes story on her family’s illegal graft. Reporting the news must rank considerably behind “Protecting Democrats” on The Charlotte Observer’s priority list…
  • Travis County GOP Guide to City Council candidates.
  • Travis County GOP on AISD, ACC, RRISD, etc. candidates.
  • More Travis County race information.
  • If you need additional reasons to vote against the latest rail boondoggle, here’s footage of the rally against it.
  • And here’s Holly Hansen’s rundown of RRISD races again.
  • Election Roundup for October 30, 2014

    Thursday, October 30th, 2014

    Early voting ends tomorrow in Texas. Plan accordingly…

  • Turns out that Hispanics are just fine and dandy with a Republican-controlled senate. So how’s that “all gay marriage and abortion all the time” thing working out for you, Democrats?
  • CBS buries its own poll showing that Democrats are about to get slaughtered. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • Democratic Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate Mary Burke was fired from her own family company because her “my way or the highway” management style alienated employees.
  • Ironically, Harry Reid protecting Democrats from tough votes may end up dooming them for tying them too closely to Obama.
  • Want to increase the number of black voters? Maybe it’s not such a swell idea to keep repeating that Obama is not on the ballot.
  • Democratic South Carolina gubernatorial candidate calls Republican Governor Nikki Haley a “whore.”
  • Dr. Milton Wolf endorses bitter rival Pat Roberts in Kansas senate race. Should help. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • What better way to convince Iowans that Bruce Braley isn’t an out-of-touch elitist who sneers at them than having Joe Biden do a fundraiser for him in New York City?
  • Illegal alien amnesty is so unpopular even Karl Rove’s PAC is running ads against it.
  • Democrats offer up cunning direct mail come-on: “Accept Defeat.”
  • The Wendy Davis Campaign Prebituaries Are Already Coming In

    Wednesday, October 29th, 2014

    Has there ever been a campaign with as much national hype behind it as Wendy Davis’ that ended up doing so poorly? Maybe Edmund Muskie’s Presidential race in 1972, Ed Koch’s Governor’s run in 1982, or Gary Hart’s abortive 1988 Presidential run. But all those were already major political players before running smack into Nemesis, and Muskie and Koch still had careers after their debacles.

    Perhaps McGovern’s 1972 general election campaign comes closest, with one disastrous decision following another and a healthy streak of bad luck to boot. (Which only compounds the idiocy of Nixon’s dirty tricks team monkeywrenching an election that was already in the bag.) But the McGovern 1972 team can rightfully claim to have displayed real tactical brilliance in winning the nomination in the first place. And McGovern was already a Senator.

    Davis doesn’t even have that going for her. This was her first (and undoubtedly her last) statewide race. After this horrendous showing, I’m not sure Democrats would even nominate her for the Railroad Commission.

    Various media outlets are already busy writing Davis’ political obituary:

  • “How Wendy Davis became the Todd Akin of the 2014 midterms.” (Ouch! That’s gonna leave a scar.) “It turns out that the electorate can be just as unfriendly to bumbling liberal candidates who are identified almost exclusively with social issues.”
  • Michelle Malkin in National Review: “Wendy Russell Davis is on fire. And I don’t mean that in a good way. I mean it in a five-alarm, set-her-own-skirt-aflame, billowing-human-torch kind of way. To say that Davis is smokin’ hot is not a compliment. It’s a campaign incineration status update.” More: “Militant gender-identity politics [can] only get you so far.”
  • The Houston Chronicle‘s Patrick Svitek: “If Democrat Wendy Davis loses the governor’s race next week, there’ll be no shortage of commentary on what may have led to her downfall — early stumbles in conveying her life story to voters, coming across as too poll-tested and stage-managed, going too negative too early on Republican Greg Abbott.” He also notes Davis’ singular failure to grapple with border-security issues. That’s understandable, since Democrats keep crowing that Hispanics are their ticket to regaining majority status, and are notably hostile to securing the border for fear it might keep out future Democratic voters via their desired illegal alien amnesty.
  • And to top it all off, no one is buying Davis’ book:

    Despite enormous levels of media buzz, Nielsen BookScan numbers provided to Slate by a publishing source show only 4,317 copies of the memoir, called Forgetting to Be Afraid, have been sold since its Sept. 9 publication.

    Nielsen BookScan doesn’t include all book sales, notably sales at many independent retailers, so the actual number of copies sold is probably higher, although still likely below 6,000. As a point of comparison, Elizabeth Warren’s memoir, A Fighting Chance, sold more than 70,000 copies in its first few months on shelves. And David Limbaugh’s book Jesus on Trial, which was published the day before Davis’, has sold about 65,000 copies, including 6,778 just last week, according to BookScan.

    In some cases, selling 6,000 hardback books would be a good number. For a first-time novelist, for instance, 6,000 hardbacks would be a pretty good number. (And it’s more than all but one of this year’s Booker Prize nominees sold in the UK.)

    But for a book with a $132,000 partial advance? Not so much…