Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics suggests that Democrats could be in for a bigger shellacking this November than the suffered even in 1994.
A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.
He foresees a bad economy, a controversial agenda (i.e, the deep unpopularity of runway spending in general and ObamaCare in specific) and the reversal of the 2006-2008 Democratic wins in traditionally Republican districts combining for a perfect storm of voter anger directed at the Democratic party.
Remember, Republicans don’t need to win in Massachusetts for a landslide; they could pick up seventy seats without winning a single one in a Democratic-leaning district.
Certainly it’s too early for premature celebration; six months is a long time in politics. But there’s good reason for Republicans to be optimistic…if they don’t blow it.
If Michael Steele isn’t scrambling to make sure every Democratic incumbent has at least one Republican challenger for the general election, he’s not doing his job.