What’s Going On In Egypt?

Good question. Wish I knew. Or, more accurately, wish I knew more than what I can glean from various reports, which is that anti-Mubarak forces are getting a smackdown from pro-Mubarak forces, including (reportedly) police (secret and otherwise) in disguise. Beyond those clashes, its hard to tell what is going on. Maybe Mubarak waited until popular rage had run its course, and delayed the crackdown until fears of disorder and looting drove the majority of non-hardcore protesters off the street before beginning the crackdown.

The more I’ve read the past few days, the more I think that Mubarak survives until his promised stepping down in the September elections. What I’ve seen is lots of anti-Mubarak forces saying he has to step down now, he can’t survive, etc., as well as similar noises from various international governments, but no reports of Egyptian generals or colonels saying the same thing.

A few other interesting articles on the situation:

  • First-hand report of The Battle of Tahir Square
  • A summary of events as they have unfolded so far. It talks about Gamal Mubarak’s technocrat friends working economic miracles but their takeover of the ruling ruling NDP party alienated the army, which saw the NDP as a rival power.
  • Michael Totten interviews Abbas Milani on parallels between Egypt today and the fall of the Shah in Iran.
  • The ever readable Christopher Hitchens on Mubarak’s shaming Egyptians. “It’s possible that people will overlook outright brutality sooner than they will forgive undisguised contempt.” (David Pryce-Jones also made much of the Arab shame/honor response in The Closed Circle.)
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