Posts Tagged ‘2012 Election’

Well, Who Hasn’t Misplaced $600,000?

Thursday, January 17th, 2013

Top David Dewhurst campaign aide Kenneth “Buddy” Barfield has been accused of embezzling at least $600,000 from the Dewhurst campaign, starting all the way back in 2008. (This news evidently first came to light December 28, but I was distracted by tidings of comfort and joy.)

I’ll just wait a moment while that sinks in. $600,000 is pretty freaking big chunk of change. It’s only a little bit less than Democratic Senate nominee Paul Sadler raised during his entire campaign. I can’t imagine how Barfield thought such a sum wouldn’t be noticed, even in such a cash-flush environment as Team Dewhurst. The news reports don’t entirely make clear whether the funds were embezzled from Dewhurst’s 2010 Lt. Governor re-election campaign, his losing 2012 Senate run, or both, since Barfield worked on both.

Some articles suggest that Barfield embezzled the funds to make up for losses on business deals.

There was also this:

There also were reports of friction between Barfield and others on Dewhurst’s campaign team over what strategy to use against rival Ted Cruz before the GOP Senate primary.

While some thought it best to ignore Cruz as much as possible, Barfield pushed for the campaign to sharpen its attacks on Cruz, efforts that many analysts now believe were too exaggerated and turned voters against Dewhurst.

So the guy stealing money from the campaign was also the guy who managed to lose the campaign.

How convenient.

I think the embezzlement is a symptom of the disorder within the Dewhurst campaign, not the cause. Having a flush campaign papers over many flaws, but if a guy steals $600,000 from you over four years, you have some serious oversight problems. I think that if someone stole $600,000 from me, I would notice, even if I were a quarter-billionaire.

Of course, as of this moment Barfield does not appear to have been indicted, much less convicted. But if true, the story should really give hope to Jerry Patterson and anyone else gunning for Dewhurst’s current job, as it suggests that Dewhurst’s attention to detail is somewhat less than total…

Step 1: Stop the Hispanicing

Monday, December 17th, 2012

I’ve held off on offering up immediate judgment on the election because I’m incredibly lazy to get past the panic and knee-jerk reactions. The world hasn’t ended, Republicans are not doomed to permanent minority status, and the cause of smaller government is not lost forever. Go over that list of bright spots again. Republicans did not do as badly as they did in 1932, 1964, 2006 or 2008. And we survived those elections, just as the Democrats survived 1994, 2004, and 2010. We’ll survive this one.

One persistent theme in a lot of recaps is how badly Republicans did among Hispanic voters, and that Republicans must immediately cave on the issue of illegal alien amnesty to have any chance of courting Hispanic votes. Though no one can dispute that Republicans need to do better among Hispanics, much of the panic over the 2012 Hispanic vote (and the resulting predictable knee-jerk push for amnesty among prominent RINOs) has been overblown, for a number of reasons:

  • First, we don’t actually know how well Republicans did among Hispanics because the AP and the networks decided not to do detailed exit polling in Texas and 18 other states, the vast majority of them red states. Thus we don’t know the true percentage of Hispanics who voted for Republicans, as states where Republicans would do better among Hispanics have been systematically excluded from the count.
  • The Hispanic vote did not cost Romney the election.
  • Romney did worse than Bush not only among Hispanics, but among several other demographic groups, most notably white voters.
  • There are several reasons to doubt liberals’ demographics are destiny theory.
  • Those who think that caving on illegal alien amnesty is the key to Republicans winning Hispanic votes are deluding themselves.
  • Indeed, it’s more likely to destroy Republican competitiveness for the foreseeable future.
  • So take a deep breath. Republicans are far better off trying to pitch the ideas of freedom and limited government to Hispanics, and running conservative Republican candidate who happen to be Hispanic like Ted Cruz, than transparent and incompetent pandering via illegal alien amnesty.

    Bright Spots

    Wednesday, November 7th, 2012

    Well, that could have gone better.

    As an effort at alleviating depression among the vast right wing conspiracy, here are a few glimmers of hope amidst the dismal news:

  • Republicans kept the House.
  • Ted Cruz won. And here’s his victory speech:

  • Democrats picked up senate seats, but they still don’t have a filibuster-proof majority.
  • Randy Weber won.
  • Republicans hold as many statewide offices in Texas as they did before, i.e. all of them.
  • Republicans won all four seats on the Third Court of Appeals.
  • Donna Campbell won.
  • Tony Dale won.
  • In the real-life 2012 version of Atlas Shrugged, Texas has taken the place of Colorado, i.e. the redoubt of a dynamic economy, freedom and limited government in a country grown ever-more statist. Thankfully, it’s not the only one, and red states are still outperforming blue states by a good measure. A narrow Obama victory can’t change that. We’ve got to keep on fighting the good fight.

    We lost the battle. The war goes on.

    LiveBlogging/LiveTweeting the Election

    Tuesday, November 6th, 2012

    Congratulations to Ted Cruz and Tony Dale on well-deserved victories!

    And on that bit of good news, off to sleep…


    Weber beats Lampson in CD14.


    Obama 303, Romney 203, Florida and Alaska undecided. And Obama is edging Romney in the popular vote as well, but not by much.


    Fox calls election for Obama. Still not sure I trust the Wisconsin call. It looks like Romney may very well win the popular vote. Even so, I still don’t believe in abolishing the electoral college.


    Fox calls Ohio for Obama. That may be all she wrote.


    All annoying local news now.


    PBS calls Iowa for Obama.


    Obama still up .5% in Florida with 94% of the vote in.


    Florida, Florida, Florida.


    Any way this turns out, this is 1% difference election.


    No, Romney playing the bio film at the GOP convention wouldn’t have made any difference.


    AP RACE CALL: Romney wins North Carolina.


    Maybe we should have nominated #Hypnotoad.


    David Brooks (click) Elizabeth Warren (click) Crowd interview (click) Grrrrr


    Whether Obama wins or not, GOP house should refuse to pass a debt limit increase, and force government to live within it’s means.


    Hit my tweet limit!


    [Swing state name here] Too close to call. Repeat as necessary.


    Looks like it’s going to be a long night before this thing is decided.


    7:23 Romney up in VA, FL too close to call, but Panhandle polls close late, and that’s Romney territory.


    Everything in the battleground states is too close to call.


    6:50 PM
    ROMNEY: Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, South Carolina
    OBAMA:Vermont


    #ElectionNightSurprises: Fox News calls race for Obama, ABC for Romney, CBS for Gary Johnson, CNN for Jill Stein, and MSNBC for the reanimated corpse of Howard Taft


    Please note that I will be live-blogging and live-tweeting the election tonight as the returns roll in starting around 7 PM CST. Judging from my live-tweeting of the debates, there’s a good chance I’ll “exceed the tweet limit”, so you’ll want to check both places for pithy insight and wily snark.

    LinkSwarm for November 6, 2012 (Election Day!)

    Tuesday, November 6th, 2012

    Today’s the day! Get out there and vote!

  • Politician says FEMA’s response to Sandy is as incompetent as it was to Katrina. But what does Rudy Giuliani know about managing New York City in a crisis?
  • Texas Speaker of the House Joe Straus doesn’t seem wild about conservatives. Go figure.
  • Sheldon Anderson on how the Democratic Party left him. “When you look at states where Democrats have enjoyed years of one-party dominance-California, Illinois, New York-you find that their liberal policies simply don’t deliver on their promises of social justice.”
  • When Obama took office unemployment was 12.7% for blacks. Now it’s 14.3%.
  • NAACP decides that Texas election laws are for other people.
  • How Big Will Ted Cruz Win Tomorrow?

    Monday, November 5th, 2012

    I’m pretty confident that Ted Cruz will win the election (and deservedly so). The only question now is: By how much?

    To determine that, let’s look at the recent history of non-Presidential top-of-the-ballot races in Texas:

  • 2000 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 4,078,954 (65%) over Gene Kelly 2,025,024 (32%)
  • 2002 Senate: John Cornyn 2,480,991 (55%) over Ron Kirk 1,946,681 (43%)
  • 2002 Governor: Rick Perry 2,617,106 (58%) over Tony Sanchez 1,809,915 (40%)
  • 2006 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 2,661,789 (62%) over Barbara Ann Radnofsky 1,555,202 (36%)
  • 2008 Senate: John Cornyn 4,326,639 (55%) over Rick Noriega 3,383,890 (43%)
  • 2010 Governor: Rick Perry 2,733,784 (55%) over Bill White 2,102,606 (42%)
  • (I’m throwing out the 4-way 2006 gubernatorial race as not germane. All numbers via Wikipdia, % rounded.)

    In terms of financial resources, Sadler’s fundraising has been very poor, having raised just over $800,000; poorer even than Rick Noriega, who managed to raise over $4 million, or Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who raised about $1.5 million. Then again, money isn’t everything: Tony Sanchez spent $60 million of his own money to garner a meager 40% against Rick Perry in 2002.

    I don’t think Sadler will do as poorly as vanity candidate Gene Kelly did in 2000. I expect Obama to run 4-5 points worse than he did in 2008, and I expect Sadler to probably lose a point or two off Obama’s total. So, I predict: Ted Cruz gets 61% of the vote, and Paul Sadler gets around 39%.

    Texas Senate Race Update for November 5, 2012

    Monday, November 5th, 2012

    And here’s your final Texas Senate Race update for 2012! I’ve been covering this race since Kay Bailey Hutchison decided not to run again on January 13, 2011.

    I expect Ted Cruz to beat Paul Sadler handily (and here’s my endorsement of Cruz). Later today I hope to have a prediction up on just how well I expect him to do.

  • Last poll shows Cruz leading Sadler 57%-36%.
  • Cruz picks up the endorsements of Texas mayors.
  • Sen. John Cornyn backs Cruz, but may be wary of the rising power of the Tea Party he represents. As well he should.
  • Paul Sadler managed to raise more money for his 2004 Texas Senate race than his 2012 U.S. Senate race. (Repeated from last week’s LinkSwarm.)
  • Sadler finally buys some ads a week before the election. Note how Robert T. Garrett references the previous item, but doesn’t have the decency to link to it.
  • Sadler gets in some last minute hispandering by pushing amnesty down on the border.
  • Perry vs. World wonders why Sadler’s ads suck so badly.
  • In his ad, Sadler asks if Texans really want to elect a Tea Party candidate. I suspect voters will answer overwhelmingly in the affirmative.
  • Romney is Talking About Hope and the Future

    Sunday, November 4th, 2012

    Mitt Romney’s latest video, “Red Rocks,” talks about hope for America’s future:

    That was posted yesterday, and already has over 117,000 views.

    Obama is talking about revenge and rape.

    Nick Lampson: “We need greater civility. That’s why I’m going to shove your camera away.”

    Saturday, November 3rd, 2012

    Obviously Democratic 14th Congressional District candidate (and former congressman) Nick Lampson really doesn’t like being asked how often he voted with Nancy Pelosi in the middle of his lecture on bipartisanship.

    I talked about the CD14 race between Lampson and Randy Weber earlier this week.

    (Hat tip: David Bellow)

    Ohio: Mitt Romney is Drawing Crowds Like U2, Obama is Drawing Crowds Like Whitesnake

    Friday, November 2nd, 2012

    Romney draws 30,000 at single rally in Ohio.

    (Pic via Brennan Hall (@bren_nan) on Twitter)

    Meanwhile, Obama is drawing crowds in Ohio between 2,800 and 4,000. That’s a good crowd…for a Whitesnake concert. It’s pretty piss poor for the President of the United States of America. I guess it’s hard to draw a crowd when you already have the stink of failure on you.

    (I would like to apologize in advance to any Whitesnake fans offended by crowd size comparisons to Obama. If you believe limited government, the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy welcomes you whether you’re a hair metal fan, a brony, a hipster, a juggalo, or even a furry (I thought it best not to link anything for that one), as long as you’re voting against Obama!)