Posts Tagged ‘2014 Lt. Governor’s Race’
Monday, January 12th, 2015
Via PushJunction comes word that Amber Mostyn (wife of rich trial lawyer Steve Mostyn) is stepping down as chair of Annie’s List. What’s Annie’s List, you ask? Essentially an attempt to do Emily’s List for Texas, i.e. elect liberal female Democrats to office.
So how did Annie’s List do in 2014? By one measure they were quite successful: They raised 18th largest amount of money of any statewide political entity in 2014, raising $1,422,009.16 and spending $1,601,945.83.
But by another, more important measure, namely winning elections…not so hot. Let’s look at the results for the candidates they endorsed
Wendy Davis – Candidate for Governor: Lost to Greg Abbott 2,790,227 votes (59.3%) to 1,832,254 votes (38.9%).
Leticia Van de Putte – Candidate for Lieutenant Governor: Lost to Dan Patrick 2,718,406 votes (58.1%), to 1,810,720 votes (38.7%).
Libby Willis – Candidate for Senate District 10 (Wendy Davis’s old seat): Lost to Konni Burton, 95,484 votes (52.8%) to 80,806 votes (44.7%).
Susan Criss – Candidate for House District 23 (Galveston Island, La Marque and Texas City): Lost to Wayne Faircloth 17,702 votes (54.6%) to 14,716 votes (45.4%).
Kim Gonzalez – Candidate for House District 43 (San Patricio, Jim Wells, Kleberg and Bee Counties): Lost to Jose Manuel Lozano 17,273 votes (61.4%) to 10,847 votes (38.6%).
Susan Motley – Candidate for House District 105 (Irving and Grand Prairie): Lost to Rodney Anderson 13,587 votes (55.4%) to 10,469 votes (42.7%).
Carol Donovan – Candidate for House District 107 (Dallas, Garland and Mesquite): Lost to Kenneth Sheets 16,879 votes (55%) to 13,803 votes (45%).
Leigh Bailey – Candidate for House District 108 (Dan Branch’s old district): Lost to Morgan Meyer, 24,953 votes (60.7%) to 16,170 votes (39.3%).
Celia Israel – Candidate for House District 50 (Austin, Pflugerville and Wells Branch): The lone bright spot among their endorsed candidates, she Won, beating Mike VanDeWalle 22,651 votes (58.7%) to 14,339 votes (37.1%). This is the district Democratic incumbent Mark Strama left to run Google Fiber Austin.
So Annie’s List racked up a winning percentage of .111 for the races they publicly supported, which is pretty far below the Mendoza Line, and their lone win came for a seat Democrats already held. Going through Annie’s List campaign reports for 2013-2014 (more about which anon) shows two other campaigns they backed at some point in the cycle:
Incumbent Mary Ann Perez’s campaign to retain House District 144 (Southeast suburban Houston area near the chip channel). She Lost to Gilbert Pena, 6,009 votes (50.7%) to 5,854 votes (49.3%). Maybe because it wasn’t a “new” endorsement, they didn’t do as much for Perez, but at just over 150 vote difference between the two candidates, this is one of the few races where additional support could have made a difference.
Incumbent Toni Rose’s successful attempt to win the Democratic Primary for House District 110, a 90% black southeast Dallas district that drew no Republican candidate in the 2014 general election.
One wonders how long Annie’s pale, middle-aged, female leadership can keep raising money with such poor results.
For the sake of completeness, and providing a “one stop shop” for information about Annie’s List, here’s their official filing information via the Texas State Ethics Commission:
POLITICAL COMMITTEE INFORMATION
Annie’s List
Account: 00053715
Committee Type: General Purpose
Files Reports: Semi-Annually
8146-A Ceberry Drive
Austin, TX 78759
TREASURER INFORMATION
Pinnelli, Janis W.
P.O. Box 50038
Austin, TX 78763
(512) 478-4487
And here are their electronic filings covering the 2013 to 2014 fundraising period:
October 27th, 2014
October 6th, 2014
July 15th, 2014 (semiannual)
May 19th, 2014 (runoff report; see how many times “The Mostyn Law Firm” appears in that list…)
February 25th, 2014 (very brief)
February 3rd, 2014
January 15th, 2014 (corrected semiannual report; uncorrected version omitted)
July 15th, 2013 (semiannual; another report where “The Mostyn Law Firm” makes many an appearance)
January 15th, 2013
Beyond Mostyn and Lisa Blue Baron, some of the names who gave significant amounts to Annie’s List include Obama bundler Naomi Aberly, Lee and Amy Fikes, and Serena Connelly, the daughter of late billionaire businessman Harold Simmons. So your usual batch of rich left-wing pro-abortion feminists. Fortunately for Texas, the state’s voters seem actively hostile to precisely the message they seek to push…
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, Amber Mostyn, Annie's List, Democrats, Elections, Fail, fundraising, Leticia Van de Putte, PAC, Steve Mostyn, Texas, Wendy Davis
Posted in Austin, Democrats, Elections, Texas | No Comments »
Wednesday, November 5th, 2014
With all the votes in, we can start analyzing some of odder aspects of the Texas statewide race results.
For those watching the race, it’s no surprise that (discounting 2006’s strange four-way race) Wendy Davis was the worst-performing Democratic gubernatorial candidate this century. The surprising thing is that, as bad as she was, Davis was the Democrat’s best statewide candidate this year. Her 38.9% was the highest statewide vote percentage by any Texas Democrat in 2014. Leticia Van de Putte’s 38.7% was the second highest. Otherwise statewide Democratic candidates ranged from a low of 34.3% for invisible Senate candidate David Alameel to a high of 38% for Attorney General candidate Sam Houston.
Possible explanations:
Perhaps Wendy Davis’ antics didn’t cause people to switch so much as it caused Democrats to stay home entirely.
Perhaps in lower-pofile races people felt free to vote for third party candidates.
Perhaps there is indeed a staunchly “pro-abortion Republican” segment of the Texas electorate, but evidence suggests that, if so, it ranges from 0.5% to 1% of the total…
And those who said Abbott would outpoll Dan Patrick were right…but only by 1.2%.
Abbott took ten counties that Bill White won in 2010: Harris, Bexar, Brooks, Culberson, Falls, Foard, Kleberg, La Salle, Reeves and Trinity. Harris (Houston) and Bexar (San Antonio) are the 800-pound gorillas on that list. In 2012, Ted Cruz won Harris by 2% (while Romney was edged there by a thousand votes) while losing Bexar by 4%. For a while Democrats were able to stay competitive statewide by racking up big margins in those urban counties even while they were losing rural and suburban counties. If Republicans can now win those counties outright, it may be a long, long time before a Democrat can win statewide again.
Two statewide Republican candidates got more votes than Abbott’s 2,790,227: Senator John Cornyn and Land Commissioner-elect George P. Bush. The rest of the country may suffer from Bush-fatigue (though I imagine that it’s now dwarfed by Obama-fatigue), but you’d be hard-pressed to find signs of it in Texas…
Since Democrats failed to contest three statewide court races, both the Libertarian and Green parties reached the minimum 5% threshold to maintain ballot access in 2016.
Shockingly, David Weigel actually brings the wood when discussing Battleground Texas:
“These are the greatest geniuses of data in the f**king world and they can’t figure out that less people voted?” asked Carney. “Every publicly pronounced goal of Battleground, every one, has been an abject failure.”
(snip)
Davis only out-performed the 2010 ticket in her home base of Tarrant County (Ft. Worth).
Oh, and it got worse. Abbott’s campaign said throughout the campaign that it would poach Latino voters, especially in the Rio Grande valley. A quick look at a Texas map might tell you that Abbott failed. Not quite true. Perry had lost Hidalgo County (McAllen) by 34 points; Abbott kept the margin down to 28 points. Perry had lost Webb County by 53 points; Abbott lost it by 39. In exit polling, Perry ended up pulling only 38 percent of the Latino vote. Abbott won 44 percent of it, about what was expected in a Texas Tribune poll that Davis allies tried to debunk. Abbott actually won Latino men, 50-49 over Davis. The Democratic wane and Republican outreach helped oust Rep. Pete Gallego, elected in 2012 in a district that sprawled across most of the border. He won 96,477 votes that year; he won only 55,436 this year, allowing black Republican Will Hurd to win, despite being out-fundraised 2-1.
Weigel may be a partisan, but at least he can read a spreadsheet…
Tags:2010 Election, 2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, Bexar County, Dan Patrick, David Alameel, David Weigel, Greg Abbott, Harris County, John Cornyn, Leticia Van de Putte, Texas, Wendy Davis
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Thursday, August 14th, 2014
With all Obama’s manifest incompetence at the national and international level, it’s easy to neglect Texas election news, so here’s a small update to tide you over.
Even liberal MSM fossil Paul Burka says that the governor’s race is over and Wendy Davis has already lost. (Shhhhh! Don’t tell her national liberal donors! Let them keep tossing dollars down the hole…
Abbott wants to reform Texas occupational licensing schemes, noting that an EMT only requires 33 days of training, but cosmetologists and barbers require 350 days of training.
Lt. Governor candidates Dan Patrick and Leticia Van de Putte will be having debate in September.
Brandon Creighton wins special election for state senate.
In the Texas House District 136 race (my district), Democratic challenger John Bucy claims to have raised more money than Republican incumbent Tony Dale. But that’s only true by counting Bucy’ spersonal political expenditures as contributions, contrary to state law, counting his volunteer campaign manager’s non-existent $22,018.70 “salary” as a contribution, and counting a bunch of other in-kind contributions.
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Governor's Race, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, Brandon Creighton, Democrats, Greg Abbott, John Bucy, Regulation, Republicans, Texas, Tony Dale, Wendy Davis
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Regulation, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Monday, June 23rd, 2014
Some Texas statewide race news to start your week with:
Her campaign manager twitched her whiskers, then jumped off the USS Wendy Davis. Speaking of which, remember her old logo?
Of the move, liberal MSM fossil Paul Burka says it’s about time: “The Davis campaign has been a disaster.” Also:
Democrats have already started describing the Republican slate as the “Abbott, Patrick, Paxton ticket.” There is always a “be careful what you wish for” component to these races. Patrick in particular is a very shrewd operator who has widespread support from the conservative base. He is a dangerous opponent. Democrats who underestimate him do so at their peril.
The fact that Greg Abbott is kicking Wendy Davis’ ass in polls is no surprise. The fact that Dan Patrick is kicking Leticia Van de Putte’s ass by an even bigger margin is.
Davis’ political obituary is already being written: “Privately, many of her supporters are resigned to her losing. And, already, some political operatives are pondering how she can stay politically relevant beyond November.” As I’ve said before, I think in 2015 she’ll host her own show on MSNBC.
Don’t give up, Wendy Davis! “Republicans needed her to be sucking up Democratic donors’ dollars all year long.”
Davis continues to raise funds where she’s most beloved: outside Texas.
More on that theme.
Abbott’s first ads against Davis are running in Spanish during the World Cup. It’s a sign of Abbott’s strength that he feels no need to secure his own base, so he can cut into Davis’ base right out of the gate.
Davis and Van de Putte are getting together to celebrate the one year anniversary of her abortion filibuster on Wednesday.
Abbott and Davis agree to two debates.
Abbot is not a big fan of corporate welfare.
Tags:2014 Governor's Race, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, abortion, Elections, Greg Abbott, Leticia Van de Putte, Paul Burka, Texas, Wendy Davis
Posted in Elections, Texas | No Comments »
Tuesday, May 27th, 2014
According to the latest results.
Both Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton were hovering around 64-65% of the vote, which is pretty decisive.
Ryan Sitton is currently winning with 58% to Wayne Christian’s 42% for Railroad Commissioner. That’s a mild surprise to me, but down ballot races are harder to predict, and I did notice a late direct mail push from Sitton.
Sid Miller is currently leading Tommy Merritt 54-46% for Agriculture Commissioner, but they haven’t called the race yet.
On the Democrat’s side, David Alameel beat Larouchite Keisha Rogers fairly handily, 72% to 28%, for the chance to be slaughtered by John Cornyn in the Senate race. And Kinky Friedman appears to have lost to non-campaigning candidate Jim Hogan 55%-45% for Agriculture Commissioner. As to why, maybe Texas Democrats hate one or more of: Marijuana, Jews, country music singers, mystery writers, guys who smoke cigars, or guys named Kinky. Or they still hate him for running as an independent in 2006. Or they like guys with nice Anglo names. Take your pick.
More tomorrow (maybe).
Tags:2014 Attorney General's Race, 2014 Election, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, 2014 Senate Race, Dan Branch, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst, John Cornyn, Ken Paxton, Kinky Friedman, Ryan Sitton, Sid Miller, Texas, Wayne Christian
Posted in Democrats, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Monday, May 26th, 2014
Tomorrow is the Texas primary runoff, so now would be a good time to find your voting card and confirm your polling place.
A final roundup of runoff tidbits:
The Dallas Morning News says that Dan Patrick is poised to win due to his staunch opposition to illegal immigration. Oversimplified, but not entirely wrong. They also say Patrick has done a good job connecting with Ted Cruz supporters.
The end for Dewhurst draws nigh.
Dan Branch would have raised more money for the Attorney General race than Ken Paxton…were it not for the $1 million loan from Midland oilman Tim Dunn via Empower Texans PAC. Now you see why so many liberal reporters call Michael Quinn Sullivan the most powerful figure in Texas politics.
Talk show host Dana Loesch endorses Paxton. Less a move-the-needle endorsement than a reminder that conservatives are united on Paxton’s side.
Hey, that union Branch lobbied for totally wasn’t a member of the AFL-CIO…at least when he lobbied for it.
Governor Rick Perry took the unusual step of endorsing Sid Miller for Agriculture Commissioner over Tommy Merritt.
Some controversy over Miller’s campaign loan repayments.
On the Democrat side of the Ag Commissioner runoff, Kinky Friedman is running against an invisible opponent. “In the May 27 runoff the choice for the party’s faithful is either Friedman or Jim Hogan, a former dairy farmer who hasn’t campaigned for the office or even has a campaign website…Hogan could not be reached for comment because a phone number listed under his name was out of service and the Democratic Party of Texas did not respond to a request for other contact information.” Also, win or lose, Kinky said this is his last race.
Hogan seems to be taking a very Zen approach to campaigning.
One website has tried to fill the Jim Hogan void.
Here’s a Texas Tribune piece on the runoff between rich guy David Alameel and Larouchite Kesha Rogers for the Democratic Senate nomination. Fun as it would be to see Rogers upset Alameel, I don’t see it in the cards.
Finally, just in case you were unclear, Texas Monthly‘s Paul Burka is very upset that Republican primary voters continue to prefer actual Republicans over Republicans who act like Democrats once in office.
Here is who I will be voting for tomorrow (all of whom I expect to win):
Dan Patrick for Lt. Governor
Ken Paxton for Attorney General
Sid Miller for Agriculture Commissioner
Wayne Christian for Railroad Commissioner
Tags:2014 Attorney General's Race, 2014 Election, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, 2014 Senate Race, Dan Branch, Dan Patrick, David Alameel, David Dewhurst, Elections, Jim Hogan, Ken Paxton, Kesha Rogers, Kinky Friedman, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Paul Burka, Rick Perry, runoff, Texas
Posted in Border Control, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Tuesday, May 20th, 2014
More fallout from Jerry Patterson’s release of Dan Patrick’s mental health information from the 1980s to aid David Dewhurst.
David Jennings of Big Jolly Politics, who was notable for being perhaps the only conservative blogger in Texas to back David Dewhurst over Ted Cruz in 2012, has declared that “the despicable attacks on Sen. Dan Patrick make me sick.”
I’m sickened by the type of attacks that the guy I support, David Dewhurst, has put out in the last two months. The worst possible thing he could have done was take on Jerry Patterson and let him have control of his campaign, which is why I coined the term “Dewtterson”…. You don’t have to support Dan or vote for him to know that what the Dewtterson campaign, along with one compliant media outlet, has done to Dan is just plain wrong.
(Hat tip: Push Junction.)
The Dallas Morning News, also not Dan Patrick fans, have said that Patterson and Dewhurst say the latest developments “scrape moral bottom.”
The Houston Chronicle joins in: “Dewhurst should be ashamed. This pathetic attempt at attacking a political opponent scrapes the bottom of the barrel.”
Lynn Woolery is moderating a Dewhurst/Patrick debate in Salado tonight, and has a list of questions that (thankfully) focus entirely on current events, rather than things that happened in the 1980s.
In other Lt. Governor’s race news:
Patrick announced he’s raised $4 million between February 23 and last week. Patrick also spent “$3.75 million on statewide media advertising and says he has $400,000 in cash remaining before the May 27 runoff.”
Missed this earlier: Ron Paul endorses David Dewhurst. Unlike other recent Dewhurst endorsements, that one might actually give him a point or two, or at least prompt another look from the Paul faithful.
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, Big Jolly Politics, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst, David Jennings, Elections, Lynn Woolley, Republicans, Texas
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | 1 Comment »
Monday, May 19th, 2014
Someone should contact the David Dewhurst campaign and inform them the the calendar doesn’t read 1989 anymore.
There’s been yet another attack on Dan Patrick dating (like all Dewhurst’s attacks) from the golden age of hair metal. After Jerry Patterson endorsed David Dewhurst, he released documentation to reporters indicating Patrick sought hospitalization for depression.
It’s impossible for an outsider to determine whether Patterson released the records on his own against Dewhurst’s wishes or whether Dewhurst is using the time-honored method of using surrogates to do his dirty work. However, the revelations obviously fit into the overall Team Dewhurst “stuck in the 1980s” attack strategy.
So ham-handed and irrelevant are these latest attacks on Patrick that even people who aren’t wild about him are turned off by the tactics. “If anything, David Dewhurst is only ensuring that Dan Patrick will win by a larger margin than he might have otherwise.”
Even before the mental health revelations, Evan of Perry vs. World said that David Dewhurst did not deserve re-election This is significant in that he has been very critical of Dan Patrick throughout the campaign.
In some future political science class, Dewhurst’s 2012 campaign against Ted Cruz and 2014 campaign against Dan Patrick are going to be dissected as outstanding examples of how not do negative advertising…
Tags:1980s, 2014 Election, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst, Elections, Jerry Patterson, Republicans, Texas
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Thursday, May 8th, 2014
Ah, Team Dewhurst: Find an issue no one cares about, then run it into the ground. Their latest attack ad (or attack viral video) doubles down on all the unsuccessful attacks in his previous ads.
“Hey, let’s take a popular Disney song and ruin it! That will get people to vote for us!” Buzzfeed wonders if it’s the worst political attack ad of all time.
Dan Patrick has been a state senator since 2007. If Team Dewhurst has made an ad actually attacking that record, rather than Patrick’s business dealings in the 1980s, I haven’t seen it.
It’s like no one on the Dewhurst team actually understood why the Cruz team flash ads were so effective in the 2012 race. Hint: They made you chuckle rather than cringe.
I can’t think of another campaign team that spends so much time and money on ineffective attack ads as Team Dewhurst. It’s becoming more and more obvious that Buddy Barfield wasn’t the biggest problem with Dewhurst’s 2012 campaign…
Tags:2014 Election, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst, Republicans, Texas
Posted in Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »
Tuesday, May 6th, 2014
With so much Obama Administration scandal, sleaze and general fail, I haven’t devoted as much time to the statwide primary runoffs as they deserve. The Lt. Governor’s race in particular offers up the interesting dynamic of well-funded incumbent David Dewhurst getting trounced in the primary by state senator Dan Patrick. So here’s an update on the latest race news, which is lamentably heavy on who did what while owning a Houston business in the 1980s.
The two debated:
There has also been a lot of back and forth on two Dewhurst attack ads against Patrick:
There’s the little problem of Dewhurst accusing Patrick of having changed his name to “hide from debts.” In fact, Patrick had used the name Dan Patrick as a his working name since 1978, discharged all his debt in bankruptcy filings in 1987, and legally changed his name from Dannie Gobe to Dan Patrick in 2003. This is a case where the Dewhurst campaign connected two dots that simply weren’t connected for the sake of an attack ad. No wonder the claim got rated “Pants on Fire.” (On the other hand, Politifact also dings Patrick for suggesting they rated the entire ad as untrue, rather than just that one part of it.)
Politico also noted that Patrick discharged the payroll taxes debt in 1989. (Consider this your periodic reminder that Politico is considerably more trustworthy when the issue in question features no favored Democrats to protect…) Here are Patrick’s responses to the charges, where he also touches on tax problems Dewhurst’s companies had in the 1980s as well, and his own response ad:
Speaking of that second Dewhurst ad, Dewhurst supporter David Jennings dings Dewhurst for shirtless picture of Dan Patrick taken at a charity event. In fact, all the unflattering photos in that ad strike me as more than a little bush league.
As for the “hiring illegal aliens” charge Dewhurst has leveled:
Jerry Patterson tried using it in the primary, and it got him nowhere.
The idea that a restaurant or club owner in Houston might have hired illegal alien help shocks absolutely no one these days.
While if true, it does show a certain amount of hypocrisy on Patrick’s part, the charge is stale enough, and documentation of it so scanty, that I don’t see it being a successful line of attack for Dewhurst.
Dewhurst also spent an additional $600,000 on attack ads. It’s strange to see Dewhurst doubling down on the same tactic that backfired so badly in his race against Cruz. While there’s a bit more meat to the Patrick charges than the Cruz ads, I just don’t see the payoff putting so much money into attacks over business decisions Patrick made a quarter-century ago during the oil bust.
Other race news:
Patterson endorses David Dewhurst. That’s a good pickup for Dewhurst (certainly a lot better than the Craig James endorsement in the 2012 Senate race), but I don’t think it moves the needle.
Dewhurst picks up the endorsements of Battleground Tea Party of Texas (who I don’t know much about, except they’re from the Clear Lake area) and the Pearland Tea Party.
1980s Savings and Loan scandal figure W. Harold Sellers was involved in helping Patrick buy a radio station. Patrick says he didn’t know about Sellers loan issues, which were eventually settled.
I’d love to bring you news on this race that doesn’t revolve around business decisions in the 1980s, but I’m not seeing much…
Tags:1980s, 2014 Election, 2014 Lt. Governor's Race, Dan Patrick, David Dewhurst, Elections, Houston, Republicans, Texas
Posted in Border Control, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »