Tomorrow’s election day! Get out there and vote! And if you’re still making up your mind, you might want to read my endorsement of Ted Cruz.
Now the final roundup of pre-runoff Senate race news:
At least it’s refreshingly-free of dishonest slime attacks against Cruz…
Today the editors of National Review unloaded on David Dewhurst with both barrels:
Mr. Dewhurst’s vulgar and dishonest campaign of scorched-earth ad hominem against Mr. Cruz raises serious questions about his judgment and his commitment to conservative values.
He has transformed himself from second-best to flailing embarrassment. He has run campaign ads that are clearly predicated on the notion that Texas conservatives are rubes — ads that treat national conservative groups such as the Club for Growth as out-of-state interlopers, and that attack Cruz for taking on unpopular clients as an attorney.
They also pigeonhole Dewhurst’s politics with scorching accuracy:
Mr. Dewhurst is an undistinguished, go-along/get-along creature of the GOP leadership’s seniority-oriented model of politics. He is a student of the school of thought that rallied party operatives behind Indiana’s too-long-lived Richard Lugar when a credible conservative alternative was available in the person of Richard Mourdock. His views — though perhaps not his temperament — would make him an ideal candidate to represent a state such as Maine, where the only other option would be a Democrat to his left. But a strong conservative can win in Texas, and we have one in Ted Cruz.
In summation:
Texas deserves something more than another time-serving Republican placeholder, and Ted Cruz is as fine a candidate as is seeking office today. Republican primary voters rarely are presented with so obvious a choice or so rich an opportunity.
Read the whole thing. And those comparisons of the Cruz-Dewhurst race to the Pat Toomey-Arlen Specter race are going to leave a scar…
“PPP’s final poll of the Republican Senate runoff in Texas finds Ted Cruz opening up a 52-42 lead, an increase from our survey two weeks ago that found him ahead 49-44.”
Further:
Cruz’s victory is driven by 4 things: the Tea Party, the enthusiasm of his supporters, a generational divide within the Texas Republican ranks, and the lack of regard the party base currently holds for Rick Perry.
The first three I believe; the fourth I have been resistant to, both because I thought Perry was the least flawed of the Republican Presidential candidates before he self-destructed in the debates, and because it fits far too neatly into the liberal media’s hatred of Perry and desire to see him fail. However, looking at the events of the last few months, I must admit that the possibility even Texas Republicans have soured on Perry does, in fact, fit the facts. (And several candidates that Perry endorsed in close, down-ballot races lost.)
More:
Cruz is ahead by a whooping 75-22 margin with Tea Party voters, more than making up for a 56-39 deficit to Dewhurst with voters who don’t consider themselves members of that movement. There has been too much of a tendency to ascribe any Republican primary upset over the last few years to Tea Party voters, but this is one case where it’s well justified.
Cruz has a 63-33 advantage with voters who describe themselves as ‘very excited’ about voting in Tuesday’s runoff election. He also has a 49-45 advantage with those describing themselves as ‘somewhat excited.’ The only reason this race is even remotely competitive is Dewhurst’s 59-31 lead with voter who say they’re ‘not that excited’ about voting. It’s an open question whether those folks will really show up and if they don’t it’s possible Cruz could end up winning by closer t0 20 points.
The greater excitement among Cruz voters can also be measured by their eagerness to get out and cast their ballots during the early voting period. Cruz leads 55-40 among those who say they’ve already voted, so Dewhurst will likely need a huge advantage among election day voters to overcome the deficit. But Cruz has a 49-44 lead with those who have yet to vote too.
Cruz’s likely victory Tuesday is also indicative of a generational gap within the Texas Republican ranks. Dewhurst leads handily with seniors, 56-39. But he’s getting destroyed with younger voters, trailing 60-33 with those between 18 and 45 and 59-35 with those in the 46-65 age range.
And finally:
Runoffs are unpredictable and it still seems possible that Dewhurst could win on Tuesday, but for now it looks like all the momentum since the primary has gone in Ted Cruz’s direction.
It’s late, so I haven’t dug into the crosstabs yet, but this analysis corresponds closely with my tracking of the race. As long as ted Cruz’s team can continue to execute in these last 36 hours, I believe that Ted Cruz will be the next United States Senator from Texas.
A quick roundup Texas Senate race news. Less than a week before the runoff! I’ll try to do at least one more update Monday.
My non-political life is amazingly busy this week, but here’s a roundup of reactions to yesterdays debate between Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst:
And not so much on the debate, but if you’re following the Senate race, you need to be reading Rick Perry vs. the World, since Evan has been on fire the last couple of weeks. Just keep scrolling.
The Senate race runoff is barreling down the track toward us, so there’s a lot of race news this week:
The King Street Patriots in Houston are hosting a Senate runoff debate between Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst in Houston, Monday, July 23, starting at 6 PM. It will be broadcast on Fox 26 in Houston (and I’m guessing other Fox affiliates around the state).
Given how poorly Dewhurst did in the last one, I’m sort of surprised he agreed to do another one, but good for both him and Cruz on agreeing to this one. That still leaves voters two short of the promised five (and I doubt they’ll squeeze them in between now and the runoff July 31), but it’s more than runoff voters in most states will get this year.
If you didn’t watch last night’s Belo debate between Ted Cruz and David Dewhurst, the executive summary is: Cruz won decisively. And despite Dewhurst’s agreement to participate in five runoff debates with Cruz, this debate was the last of two.
Here’s video of it from WFAA so you can judge for yourself:
Both candidates have improved their debating skills as the campaign has gone on: Cruz has gone from being exceptionally good to great, while Dewhurst has improved from dismal to merely poor. Dewhurst just does not know how to make clear, concise points during a debate. Time and time again, he started an answer, and then a second answer, and then a third, without finishing the first. Save Elizabeth Ames Jones, who has an actual speech impediment, Dewhurst may be the worst speaker in the Texas Senate race this cycle, major or minor, on either side. With all the money he’s spending on this race, and his obvious weakness, you’d think Dewhurst would hire someone just for debate prep.
By contrast, Cruz’s decision to attend essentially every candidate forum and debate over the last 18 months has served him very well, not only from generating grassroots enthusiasm for his campaign, but also how direct and concise his answers have become from months of honing them. I had some criticisms early in the campaign about Cruz sometimes reaching for his stock answers too transparently. But now Cruz seems to have a clear, concise answer for every question put to him, and has achieved such fluidity with them that they never seem canned or forced. None of the questions in last nights debate gave Cruz opportunity to use his father’s life story (compelling though it is), so he didn’t trot it out, which was the right decision.
By contrast, it was Dewhurst’s constant refrain of “I’m a jobs creator” that seemed forced and transparent. Even worse was his answer to the wage tax question, insisting he was against it, but never addressing all the contemporaneous media reports he was in favor of it. He also backtracked, saying the wage tax didn’t go anywhere, Cruz pointing out that it passed the senate, and Dewhurst admitting that yes, it did pass the senate (you know, the legislative chamber Dewhurst runs).
Of the seven or eight topics covered, Cruz dominated all but one. (On a question of cutting spending or buying the Texas-built F-35, both Cruz and Dewhurst said they would listen to the military experts, and for once Dewhurst’s answer was free of backtracking and stumbles.) On the few policy questions where the candidates differed, Cruz had demonstrably more conservative positions. (“I disagree with the premise of your question. I don’t think it’s government’s job to provide health care.”)
This was also far and away the best moderated of the Texas debates, nearly free of liberal policy assumptions, and moderator Brad Watson was extremely good at getting candidates to focus on the actual question. He also got in an introductory dig, noting that there was a runoff because Dewhurst couldn’t “seal the deal.” (Burn!)
After the debate, Tom Leppert endorsed Dewhurst, which I don’t see moving the needle much in either direction. It was a good (if transparent) move by Team Dewhurst to blunt any possible Cruz momentum from the debate, which suggests that going in that they were pretty sure Dewhurst would lose.
Tonight is the last Ted Cruz/David Dewhurst debate before the election. (Hey Dewhurst, what happened to all those other debates you said you were up for?)
Baring unforeseen technical difficulties, I will be LiveTweeting the debate from Cruz headquarters in Austin. I’m guessing the hashtag will probably be #belodebate again. Drop in if you’re so inclined.
