Posts Tagged ‘Elections’

South Carolina CD1 Election Fallout

Wednesday, May 8th, 2013

A roundup of interesting commentary on Mark Sanford’s defeat of Elizabeth Colbert-Busch in the SC1 special election:

  • Erick Erickson on Mark Sanford’s victory: “[Colbert-Busch] opted out of most debate opportunities. Instead of debating her, Mark Sanford toured the district with a life-sized cutout of Nancy Pelosi. It worked.” More: “Between Bill Clinton and Kermit Gosnell, no one would ever accuse the Democrats of being for family values.”
  • Human Events joins the smackdown parade:

    “We gave it a heck of a fight,” Colbert Busch said in her concession speech. No, you didn’t. You were obliterated by the most beatable Republican in the House. Between campaign and independent spending, you blew upwards of $2 million, and got trounced by a candidate the National Republican Congressional Committee refused to support. You ran a weak, lazy campaign that never had much to say beyond harping on Sanford’s extramarital affair, and reminding voters that your brother is a TV star, while he threw himself furiously into shoe-leather retail politics. Sanford was still holding public events on Election Day, while you were nowhere to be found. You backed away from a crucial debate opportunity, leaving Sanford to own the stage by debating a cardboard cutout of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. It’s hard to imagine how you could have fought less for the seat, short of holding all your campaign events by closed-circuit TV from your brother’s house.

    More:

    The mythical backlash against opponents of gun control didn’t materialize to help Colbert Busch, which should only come as a surprise to those who take liberal media manipulation seriously. She took labor union money, which wasn’t going to endear her to voters in the state where unions tried to kill a Boeing plant. Between the ObamaCare disaster, the failure of their Sequester Terror efforts to cudgel more taxes out of the American people, and the gathering Benghazi storm, the Democrat Party isn’t looking its best at the moment…I would imagine we’ll be hearing a lot about Nancy Pelosi in tight 2014 races.

  • How the MSM carried Colbert-Busch’s water:

    What we see here is another refutation of what I’ve called a “beautiful little fairy tale that liberals tell themselves,” that the American public is broadly supportive of their worldview, and they only lose because Republicans manage to Jedi-Mind-Trick the electorate into caring about distractions, silliness, and those irrelevant ‘wedge issues.’…The fairy tale is that Americans, deep down, really agree with liberals on all of these issues and would heartily embrace their agenda if only these side issues, scandals, and manufactured distractions would just get out of the way. But the electorate doesn’t always think liberal ideas are better, and we may argue that they rarely do.

    More: “Today you’re hearing a lot of talk along the lines of, ‘Oh, everyone knew this was a really conservative district and that Sanford would probably win.’ Well, you don’t spend more than $2 million ($1.2 million in donations to Colbert Busch, more than $929,000 on independent expenditures against Sanford) for a race you know you can’t win.”

  • PPP’s polls were not exactly oracular: “At one point, PPP had Colbert Busch ahead by nine points…The fact that Sanford, a deeply flawed candidate, substantially outperformed the polls is just one data point. But it suggests that the Obama phenomenon may not be easily replicable. If that is the case, 2014 could look a lot like 2010.”
  • Colbert-Busch sucked as a campaigner. “At a Chamber of Commerce forum last week, the Democrat delivered four minutes of remarks and was then hustled out of the room by a team of handlers.”
  • MSM reports of Mark Sanford’s political demise were notably premature.
  • Heh. “Any time a Democrat white woman related to a famous man as the source of her fame fails to excite Democrat turnout, I chalk up a double victory for the GOP.”
  • Sandford Beats Colbert-Busch

    Tuesday, May 7th, 2013

    In the South Carolina First Congressional District race. In fact, it wasn’t even particularly close.

    Stephen Colbert may be America, but his sister can’t be a U.S. Representative on his coattails.

    Democratic Donor Marc Rosenthal Convicted

    Monday, March 25th, 2013

    From Holly Hansen comes word that Austin attorney and Democratic donor Marc Rosenthal was found guilty of 13 felony counts, including racketeering conspiracy, mail fraud and tampering with a proceeding.

    Holly did a great job looking at his state donations, but I wanted to take a gander at his national contributions as well.

    He gave $2,300 to Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar in 2008, and another $2,000 in 2010. He also donated $2,000 to Democratic U.S. congressmen Crio Rodriguez in March of 2008 (presumably for the Democratic primary), and then another $2,300 (the maximum donation) in October.

    Going back further, Rosenthal donated:

  • $2,000 to John Edwards in 2003 (I know, a wealthy Democratic trial lawyer supporting a wealthy Democratic trial lawyer for President. Try to contain your shock.)
  • Three separate donations of $1,000 to John Kerry in 2004.
  • $1,000 to Richard Raymond in 2005 (I’m assuming the Texas State Representative for Laredo).
  • $1,000 to Lloyd Doggett in 2004.
  • And $1,000 to Al Gore in 1999.
  • Here in Texas, we tend to convict people for felony jury tampering, no matter how many Democrats they’ve donated to.

    I’m sure this fact has absolutely nothing to do with trial lawyer and big Democratic donor Steve Mostyn suddenly deciding to move most of his practice to New York City…

    Ted Cruz Announces New PAC

    Saturday, March 16th, 2013

    Ted Cruz has announced he’s forming a new Jobs Growth & Freedom Fund PAC. Or rather, will be announcing it at 4:10 PM Eastern Time at CPAC. (You can watch Cruz’s address live.) “Our mission is to elect strong conservatives and to build a Republican Senate Majority in 2014.”

    Cruz is “paying it forward,” since endorsements from Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservative Fund and the Club for Growth were hugely important in gaining early momentum in Cruz’s Republican primary fight. So far I think Cruz has done an excellent job as senator, so I kicked in a few shekels myself.

    George P. Bush Running for Land Commissioner

    Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

    George Prescott Bush filed the official paperwork Tuesday to run for Texas land commissioner next year.”

    That would be Jeb Bush’s son, Bush43′s nephew, and Bush41′s grandson, one of the “little brown ones.” The Bush name alone is probably enough to win him the office, but add to that the fact that the Bush family has one of the most powerful money machines in all politics and you have a prohibitive favorite. Jerry Patterson was probably right to think he’d have an easier time defeating a post-Senate-race-meltdown David Dewhurst for Lt. Governor.

    Deeper analysis of a continuing Bush dynasty, and of how Democrats and the press react to facing a Bush scion who happens to be Hispanic, will have to wait until (at least) tomorrow.

    Well, Who Hasn’t Misplaced $600,000?

    Thursday, January 17th, 2013

    Top David Dewhurst campaign aide Kenneth “Buddy” Barfield has been accused of embezzling at least $600,000 from the Dewhurst campaign, starting all the way back in 2008. (This news evidently first came to light December 28, but I was distracted by tidings of comfort and joy.)

    I’ll just wait a moment while that sinks in. $600,000 is pretty freaking big chunk of change. It’s only a little bit less than Democratic Senate nominee Paul Sadler raised during his entire campaign. I can’t imagine how Barfield thought such a sum wouldn’t be noticed, even in such a cash-flush environment as Team Dewhurst. The news reports don’t entirely make clear whether the funds were embezzled from Dewhurst’s 2010 Lt. Governor re-election campaign, his losing 2012 Senate run, or both, since Barfield worked on both.

    Some articles suggest that Barfield embezzled the funds to make up for losses on business deals.

    There was also this:

    There also were reports of friction between Barfield and others on Dewhurst’s campaign team over what strategy to use against rival Ted Cruz before the GOP Senate primary.

    While some thought it best to ignore Cruz as much as possible, Barfield pushed for the campaign to sharpen its attacks on Cruz, efforts that many analysts now believe were too exaggerated and turned voters against Dewhurst.

    So the guy stealing money from the campaign was also the guy who managed to lose the campaign.

    How convenient.

    I think the embezzlement is a symptom of the disorder within the Dewhurst campaign, not the cause. Having a flush campaign papers over many flaws, but if a guy steals $600,000 from you over four years, you have some serious oversight problems. I think that if someone stole $600,000 from me, I would notice, even if I were a quarter-billionaire.

    Of course, as of this moment Barfield does not appear to have been indicted, much less convicted. But if true, the story should really give hope to Jerry Patterson and anyone else gunning for Dewhurst’s current job, as it suggests that Dewhurst’s attention to detail is somewhat less than total…

    Step 1: Stop the Hispanicing

    Monday, December 17th, 2012

    I’ve held off on offering up immediate judgment on the election because I’m incredibly lazy to get past the panic and knee-jerk reactions. The world hasn’t ended, Republicans are not doomed to permanent minority status, and the cause of smaller government is not lost forever. Go over that list of bright spots again. Republicans did not do as badly as they did in 1932, 1964, 2006 or 2008. And we survived those elections, just as the Democrats survived 1994, 2004, and 2010. We’ll survive this one.

    One persistent theme in a lot of recaps is how badly Republicans did among Hispanic voters, and that Republicans must immediately cave on the issue of illegal alien amnesty to have any chance of courting Hispanic votes. Though no one can dispute that Republicans need to do better among Hispanics, much of the panic over the 2012 Hispanic vote (and the resulting predictable knee-jerk push for amnesty among prominent RINOs) has been overblown, for a number of reasons:

  • First, we don’t actually know how well Republicans did among Hispanics because the AP and the networks decided not to do detailed exit polling in Texas and 18 other states, the vast majority of them red states. Thus we don’t know the true percentage of Hispanics who voted for Republicans, as states where Republicans would do better among Hispanics have been systematically excluded from the count.
  • The Hispanic vote did not cost Romney the election.
  • Romney did worse than Bush not only among Hispanics, but among several other demographic groups, most notably white voters.
  • There are several reasons to doubt liberals’ demographics are destiny theory.
  • Those who think that caving on illegal alien amnesty is the key to Republicans winning Hispanic votes are deluding themselves.
  • Indeed, it’s more likely to destroy Republican competitiveness for the foreseeable future.
  • So take a deep breath. Republicans are far better off trying to pitch the ideas of freedom and limited government to Hispanics, and running conservative Republican candidate who happen to be Hispanic like Ted Cruz, than transparent and incompetent pandering via illegal alien amnesty.

    LiveBlogging/LiveTweeting the Election

    Tuesday, November 6th, 2012

    Congratulations to Ted Cruz and Tony Dale on well-deserved victories!

    And on that bit of good news, off to sleep…


    Weber beats Lampson in CD14.


    Obama 303, Romney 203, Florida and Alaska undecided. And Obama is edging Romney in the popular vote as well, but not by much.


    Fox calls election for Obama. Still not sure I trust the Wisconsin call. It looks like Romney may very well win the popular vote. Even so, I still don’t believe in abolishing the electoral college.


    Fox calls Ohio for Obama. That may be all she wrote.


    All annoying local news now.


    PBS calls Iowa for Obama.


    Obama still up .5% in Florida with 94% of the vote in.


    Florida, Florida, Florida.


    Any way this turns out, this is 1% difference election.


    No, Romney playing the bio film at the GOP convention wouldn’t have made any difference.


    AP RACE CALL: Romney wins North Carolina.


    Maybe we should have nominated #Hypnotoad.


    David Brooks (click) Elizabeth Warren (click) Crowd interview (click) Grrrrr


    Whether Obama wins or not, GOP house should refuse to pass a debt limit increase, and force government to live within it’s means.


    Hit my tweet limit!


    [Swing state name here] Too close to call. Repeat as necessary.


    Looks like it’s going to be a long night before this thing is decided.


    7:23 Romney up in VA, FL too close to call, but Panhandle polls close late, and that’s Romney territory.


    Everything in the battleground states is too close to call.


    6:50 PM
    ROMNEY: Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, South Carolina
    OBAMA:Vermont


    #ElectionNightSurprises: Fox News calls race for Obama, ABC for Romney, CBS for Gary Johnson, CNN for Jill Stein, and MSNBC for the reanimated corpse of Howard Taft


    Please note that I will be live-blogging and live-tweeting the election tonight as the returns roll in starting around 7 PM CST. Judging from my live-tweeting of the debates, there’s a good chance I’ll “exceed the tweet limit”, so you’ll want to check both places for pithy insight and wily snark.

    LinkSwarm for November 6, 2012 (Election Day!)

    Tuesday, November 6th, 2012

    Today’s the day! Get out there and vote!

  • Politician says FEMA’s response to Sandy is as incompetent as it was to Katrina. But what does Rudy Giuliani know about managing New York City in a crisis?
  • Texas Speaker of the House Joe Straus doesn’t seem wild about conservatives. Go figure.
  • Sheldon Anderson on how the Democratic Party left him. “When you look at states where Democrats have enjoyed years of one-party dominance-California, Illinois, New York-you find that their liberal policies simply don’t deliver on their promises of social justice.”
  • When Obama took office unemployment was 12.7% for blacks. Now it’s 14.3%.
  • NAACP decides that Texas election laws are for other people.
  • Texas Senate Race Update for November 5, 2012

    Monday, November 5th, 2012

    And here’s your final Texas Senate Race update for 2012! I’ve been covering this race since Kay Bailey Hutchison decided not to run again on January 13, 2011.

    I expect Ted Cruz to beat Paul Sadler handily (and here’s my endorsement of Cruz). Later today I hope to have a prediction up on just how well I expect him to do.

  • Last poll shows Cruz leading Sadler 57%-36%.
  • Cruz picks up the endorsements of Texas mayors.
  • Sen. John Cornyn backs Cruz, but may be wary of the rising power of the Tea Party he represents. As well he should.
  • Paul Sadler managed to raise more money for his 2004 Texas Senate race than his 2012 U.S. Senate race. (Repeated from last week’s LinkSwarm.)
  • Sadler finally buys some ads a week before the election. Note how Robert T. Garrett references the previous item, but doesn’t have the decency to link to it.
  • Sadler gets in some last minute hispandering by pushing amnesty down on the border.
  • Perry vs. World wonders why Sadler’s ads suck so badly.
  • In his ad, Sadler asks if Texans really want to elect a Tea Party candidate. I suspect voters will answer overwhelmingly in the affirmative.