Posts Tagged ‘Greg Abbott’

Texas Statewide Race Oddities

Wednesday, November 5th, 2014

With all the votes in, we can start analyzing some of odder aspects of the Texas statewide race results.

For those watching the race, it’s no surprise that (discounting 2006′s strange four-way race) Wendy Davis was the worst-performing Democratic gubernatorial candidate this century. The surprising thing is that, as bad as she was, Davis was the Democrat’s best statewide candidate this year. Her 38.9% was the highest statewide vote percentage by any Texas Democrat in 2014. Leticia Van de Putte’s 38.7% was the second highest. Otherwise statewide Democratic candidates ranged from a low of 34.3% for invisible Senate candidate David Alameel to a high of 38% for Attorney General candidate Sam Houston.

Possible explanations:

  • Perhaps Wendy Davis’ antics didn’t cause people to switch so much as it caused Democrats to stay home entirely.
  • Perhaps in lower-pofile races people felt free to vote for third party candidates.
  • Perhaps there is indeed a staunchly “pro-abortion Republican” segment of the Texas electorate, but evidence suggests that, if so, it ranges from 0.5% to 1% of the total…
  • And those who said Abbott would outpoll Dan Patrick were right…but only by 1.2%.

    Abbott took ten counties that Bill White won in 2010: Harris, Bexar, Brooks, Culberson, Falls, Foard, Kleberg, La Salle, Reeves and Trinity. Harris (Houston) and Bexar (San Antonio) are the 800-pound gorillas on that list. In 2012, Ted Cruz won Harris by 2% (while Romney was edged there by a thousand votes) while losing Bexar by 4%. For a while Democrats were able to stay competitive statewide by racking up big margins in those urban counties even while they were losing rural and suburban counties. If Republicans can now win those counties outright, it may be a long, long time before a Democrat can win statewide again.

    Two statewide Republican candidates got more votes than Abbott’s 2,790,227: Senator John Cornyn and Land Commissioner-elect George P. Bush. The rest of the country may suffer from Bush-fatigue (though I imagine that it’s now dwarfed by Obama-fatigue), but you’d be hard-pressed to find signs of it in Texas…

    Since Democrats failed to contest three statewide court races, both the Libertarian and Green parties reached the minimum 5% threshold to maintain ballot access in 2016.

    Shockingly, David Weigel actually brings the wood when discussing Battleground Texas:

    “These are the greatest geniuses of data in the f**king world and they can’t figure out that less people voted?” asked Carney. “Every publicly pronounced goal of Battleground, every one, has been an abject failure.”

    (snip)

    Davis only out-performed the 2010 ticket in her home base of Tarrant County (Ft. Worth).

    Oh, and it got worse. Abbott’s campaign said throughout the campaign that it would poach Latino voters, especially in the Rio Grande valley. A quick look at a Texas map might tell you that Abbott failed. Not quite true. Perry had lost Hidalgo County (McAllen) by 34 points; Abbott kept the margin down to 28 points. Perry had lost Webb County by 53 points; Abbott lost it by 39. In exit polling, Perry ended up pulling only 38 percent of the Latino vote. Abbott won 44 percent of it, about what was expected in a Texas Tribune poll that Davis allies tried to debunk. Abbott actually won Latino men, 50-49 over Davis. The Democratic wane and Republican outreach helped oust Rep. Pete Gallego, elected in 2012 in a district that sprawled across most of the border. He won 96,477 votes that year; he won only 55,436 this year, allowing black Republican Will Hurd to win, despite being out-fundraised 2-1.

    Weigel may be a partisan, but at least he can read a spreadsheet…

    Brief Blurbs on a Brilliant Bloodbath

    Wednesday, November 5th, 2014

    Democrats didn’t just lose last night, they got slaughtered up and down the ballot:

  • Republicans took control of the Senate, flipping seven Senate seats in North Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, South Dakota, Colorado, Montana, Iowa, giving them 52 and control of the Senate. There’s a good chance that will be 54 after runoffs in Louisiana and Alaska.
  • Republicans added at least 12 House seats to their majority, a margin that is likely to grow as late seats finish counting.
  • Republicans picked up at least three governorships.
  • Republicans continued to make massive gains at the state legislative level. “The Republican wave that swept over the states left Democrats at their weakest point in state legislatures since the 1920s.”
  • Here in Texas, not only did Republicans win all statewide races (again), but Abbott beat Wendy Davis not only worse than Rick Perry beat Bill White in 2010, but worse than Perry beat Tony Sanchez in 2002: Sanchez came in at 39.96% of the vote; right now Wendy Davis is at 38.9%. Davis even lost white women by a 2-1 ratio. Battleground Texas bragged about how they were going to turn Texas blue; instead, it got still redder.
  • More later.

    Liveblogging Election Night 2014

    Tuesday, November 4th, 2014


    Davis is currently at 38.1%. Just for the record, I called Wendy Davis dropping below Tony Sanchez’s 39.96% back in September.


    Back

    In local election news, Williamson County Republicans Tony Dale and Larry Gonzalez both won decisively over their Dem challengers.


    OK, I’m heading home. This isn’t a Republican landslide, it’s a Republican tidal wave. Enjoy it now. Tomorrow the hard work begins.


    Congratulations to Greg Abbott on being elected governor of Texas!


    News media now saying Ernst wins and Republicans take control of the senate.


    Republican Joni Ernst takes lead in Iowa.


    A very solid victory speech, with lots of family thanked.


    Wendy Davis called Abbott to congratulate him.


    Nope, family members first. Daughter Cecelia Audrey Abbott.


    Lights went down and they’re about to introduce Abbott.


    Fox just called Kansas Senate race for Republican Roberts.


    Wendy Davis didn’t even win Texas women.


    Right now Wendy Davis is running behind Tony Sanchez’s 39.97% in 2002. $38%.


    Ran into Sen. John Cornyn on my way to the bathroom. Congratulated him. Now he’s being interviewed 3 feet away from me.


    Wisconsin Governor’s race called for Republican Scott Walker.



    Governor Perry speaking after a huge round of applause.


    Whoa!

    Not a shock, but someone calling it this early is.



    Abbott spokesman saying they crushed Democrats AND BattleGround Texas. “Helping them waste their money, the way Democrats always do.”


    Calling West Virginia Senate race for for Republican Capito. Not a surprise, but that’s a flip from D to R.




    Republican Rounds projected to win SD Sen. No surprise.


    Republican Ed Gillispie beating Warner in VA; not final, but if true that would indicate a truly epic Republican wave.


    GOP Sen pickups: Cotton beats Pryor in Arkansas,


    OK, now I’m in on Twitter, but on another browser…


    Hi there! I’m blogging from the Greg Abbott Victory Party at the ACL theater. Can’t seem to get Twitter to take my password, so this may just be LiveBlog rather than LiveTweet.

    Election Update for October 28, 2104

    Tuesday, October 28th, 2014

    Your “one week until Election Day” roundup of news:

  • Republicans lead going into the final stretch. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Thomas Sowell: “Many Democrats are running away from Barack Obama, but they can’t hide their record of voting for Obama’s agenda more than 90 percent of the time.”
  • Democrats: “Jerk your knees, women! Damnit, jerk your knees!
  • Speaking of pandering to women: Evidently, it isn’t working for Mark Udall in Colorado. “A myopic focus on reproductive freedom and the ‘War on the Women’ does not seem to be an effective way to mobilize and motivate women in a year when the economy and jobs are at the forefront of voters’ minds.”
  • Indeed, the gender gap is working against Udall, since Gardner’s lead among men is much bigger than Udall’s narrow lead among women.
  • Denver Post: Udall sucks so bad we’re actually endorsing a Republican.
  • An ad that targets Kay Hagan the same way the last one targeted Mary Landrieu:

    (Hat tip: Moe Lane.)

  • The latest poll has Hagan tied with Thom Tillis, a precarious place for a Democratic incumbent a week out from a Republican wave election.
  • Early signs point to Republicans picking up a new Nevada congressional district which was D+4 in 2012.
  • Texans favor voter ID by a 3-1 margin.
  • Wendy Davis has just over a half-million funds on-hand for the last week of the campaign.
  • Texas State Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D-im): Greg Abbott is a guy who “just rolls around.”
  • Texas Democrats thinking “this time will be different!” because of money spent targeting Hispanic voters are forgetting Tony Sanchez’s big bucks 2002 campaign. “Perhaps Texas Latinos just don’t like the shoddy liberal product that Texas Democrats keep trying to sell them.”
  • Why you should vote against exapanding Capitol Metro’s toy trains.
  • More on the same theme.
  • Holly Hansen’s Round Rock ISD endorsements.
  • Remember: When in doubt, it’s always safe to vote against the Austin Chronicle‘s endorsements.
  • Wendy Davis Puts Down Jackhammer, Revs Up Backhoe

    Wednesday, October 22nd, 2014

    You’ve really got to hand it to the Wendy Davis campaign. Every time you think they’ve sunk as low as they possibly can, they break out the heavy construction equipment and start digging.

    Now the campaign who asked if the guy in a wheelchair hated the disabled is wondering whether the guy married to a Mexican-American would ban interracial marriage.

    The reviews are in, and they’re not pretty:

  • Davis is “doubling down on a big blunder by defending the indefensible.”
  • “Republicans expected that Davis’s bid for governor would go nowhere. But the slow-motion seppuku that has been the Davis campaign has surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. It has been nothing short of schadenfreude-tastic.”

  • Then of course there’s the whole attacking Abbott over dildos issue. Look, from a libertarian viewpoint I happen to agree that the state’s rarely-enforced sex toy ban is pointless in the Internet age. However: 1.) Davis still doesn’t seem to understand what an Attorney General’s job is, and 2.) Everyone who would vote for Wendy Davis over dildos was already voting for her, so talking about it wins her no additional votes, and probably loses her a few among older voters.

    I’m sure there have been more incompetent campaigns than Davis’, but I’m wracking my brain trying to think of one so high-profile and well-funded that crashed and burned so spectacularly, or that managed to alienate so many people in such a short period of time with such sleazy and counterproductive tactics.

    Its almost as if Democrats know her campaign is doomed, and have encouraged this offensive incompetence as a means of distracting attention from their deeply flawed senate race candidates in other states.

    “I suspect her candidacy is an elaborate prank pulled on the people of Texas, and she is actually a middle-aged actress from southern California hired by Funny or Die.” [Disagree: There’s precious little evidence the Funny or Die people are capable of coming up with something this funny.]

    Maybe she has a secret bet with a billionaire (ala Brewster’s Millions) that she can run a campaign so unbelievably sleazy and incompetent that she can get The Nation to endorse Greg Abbott. Or maybe she’s a Karl Rove plant.

    Also this:

    (Would have had this up yesterday, but too much news puffing up…)

    Wendy Davis Stops Digging, Gets Out Jackhammer

    Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

    Once again, the Wendy Davis campaign is the gift that keeps giving to conservative pundits. It’s all over but the voting at this point, but Davis’ thrashing, flailing campaign is so ham-handed and tone-deaf that she keeps staying in the news for all the wrong reasons.

    First came this amazingly stupid ad:

    Reaction was swift and pretty much universally negative.

    Fox: “Absolute desperation…catastrophic.”

    Even ultra-lefty Mother Jones was appalled: “Wendy Davis just released an ad attacking Greg Abbott, her opponent for governor in Texas, which is, to be blunt, bullshit. It’s offensive and nasty and it shouldn’t exist. She’s basically calling Abbott a cripple.”

    MSNBC? “A huge blunder.” “Every Democrat I met down there was appalled.” “She’s gonna get creamed.”

    Indeed, the ad is so ill-considered and offensive that it may derail what I thought would be her next gig: a position at MSNBC.

    As Hot Air noted: “Perhaps Wendy Davis isn’t familiar with what an Attorney General does.”

    Also note that this ad didn’t come from an outside group or SuperPAC, this came from the Davis campaign itself. Her fingerprints are all over it and she has no deniability.

    So what did Davis do after this nigh-on universal condemnation? She doubled down on stupid.

    And this happened:

    And Abbott? He’s just shrugging over the whole thing, and why shouldn’t he? Never interrupt your opponent when they’re in the process of committing suicide. Also note that he eschewed the frequent liberal tactic of calling a press conference to talk about how offended he is. When you’re a front-runner with a comfortable lead and a big money advantage, you don’t need such cheap theatrics.

    LinkSwarm for Friday, October 3, 2014

    Friday, October 3rd, 2014

    Here’s your Friday LinkSwarm of semi-random linkage goodness:

  • ObamaCare’s war on women: higher premiums, cancelled plans, fewer options.
  • ObamaCare has already cost $73 billion and counting.
  • And the Healthcare.Gov website cost 2.5 times what the Obama Administration told us.
  • The inequality police are worried that we are living in a new Gilded Age. We should be so lucky: Between 1880 and 1890, the number of employed Americans increased by more than 13 percent, and wages increased by almost 50 percent. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that the Barack Obama years will not match that record; the share of employed Americans is lower today than it was when he took office, and household income is down. Grover Cleveland is looking like a genius in comparison.

  • The middle class is poorer today than it was in 1989. Thanks, Obama! (Hat tip: Instapundit).
  • World Health Organization refuses to approve experimental drugs for Ebola patients. Because they might get sick…
  • CDC chief thinks a ban on travelers from Ebola-infected countries would be “wrong.” Wrong for who? People who won’t get infected?
  • Real Salon or parody Salon? “The problem with ‘Ebola’: The troubling, xenophobic language of disease.”
  • And if Ebola wasn’t bad enough, Enterovirus D68 has been found in four people who died.
  • And that Enterovirus D68 outbreak may be related to Obama’s decision not to deport illegal aliens.
  • Even 60% of Democrats think Obama is a wuss when it comes to ISIS.
  • U.S. troops fighting in the warkinetic overseas contingency engagement against ISIS are not eligible for campaign medals.
  • NRA’s Political victory Fund has released their ranking of candidates. That’s the one for Texas, but you can select all the other states as well.
  • Liberals are hypocrites when it comes to big bucks “dark money” fundraising.
  • The places where our self-appointed elites congregate are turning into precisely the places where actual voters are getting thinner and thinner on the ground.”
  • Despite what radical feminists would have you believe, sex crimes on campus are going down, not up.
  • Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott: voting fraud is real.
  • Appeals court finds Texas abortion laws constitutional.
  • “‘He’s from Texas, honey,’ I yelled at the television, startling the cats, ‘That’s not “armed”, that’s “dressed”, you island-dwelling herbivore! Jesus, you cud-chewing Eloi, how do you people open packages? With your teeth, like an animal?” For a bonus, try to work “cud-chewing Eloi” into your next conversation… (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • More domestic violence in the MSM than the NFL: ESPN, ABC, CBS, NBC and the New York Times.
  • Bill Maher goes after liberals being soft on Islam. “Saudi women can’t vote or drive or hold a job or leave the house without a man. Overwhelming majorities in every Muslim country say a wife is always obliged to obey her husband. That all seems like a bigger issue than an evangelical Christian bakery refusing to make gay wedding cakes. ”
  • What happens when you bail out of an SR-71 at Mach 3 and 78,000 feet.
  • Maybe I’m jumping to conclusions, but something about this film has “suck” written all over it…
  • Two words: Homemade flamethrower.

  • Follow-Up On Abbott-Davis RGV Debate

    Saturday, September 20th, 2014

    The Abbot campaign sent around this two minute exchange from the debate as being Davis’ most cringe-worthy performance:

    The Houston Chronicle says that Abbott is right on the facts in that exchange:

    Shot: Davis said “the only thing right now coming between our children and appropriate funding of their schools is (Abbott).”

    Fact: It’s a little more complicated than that. This charge came in the lead-up to her sole question of her Republican opponent, which was whether he would drop the state’s appeal of a judge’s ruling that Texas’ school finance scheme is unconstitutional. Abbott is defending the law passed by the Legislature – as is the job of the attorney general. So while Abbott may get pinned with continuing to legally vouch for the state’s $5.4 billion in cuts to Texas public schools in 2011, he retorted that it was the Legislature that stood between the children and appropriate funding. Abbott also correctly pointed out that the Legislature passed a law last session that limited the attorney general’s ability to settle cases like the one over school finance.

    Even a friendly press is saying that Davis “fails to land blows on Republican rival.”

    Dallas Morning News: Davis “failed to rattle a poised Greg Abbott…At one point he asked Davis if she were still glad she had voted for the president, whose deep unpopularity in the state is a headache for Democrats. Davis laughed at the question but didn’t answer it.”

    WendyBot5000. Will. Continue. Speaking!

    Friday, September 19th, 2014

    Well, if Wendy Davis was hoping the Rio Grande Valley debate would help her catch up to Greg Abbott, she probably should have worked to have a voice other than the pre-programmed monotone she used. She also loses points for the lack of discipline at having answers that extended beyond her allotted time (which I commend the debate hosts for strictly enforcing), and then continuing to talk rudely over their attempts to shut her off.

    Abbott won by a comfortable margin. Davis wins points for actually knowing the Mexican Water Treaty of 1944, but loses even more points for flat out lying about Republicans wanting to repeal the Voting Rights Act of 1964, as opposed to ending the preclearence requirements.

    I doubt terribly many minds were changed by the debate, except possibly those of donors who previously thought Davis might be worth giving more money to…

    Greg Abbott Debates Wendy Davis Tonight At 6 PM

    Friday, September 19th, 2014

    Tonight Greg Abbott faces off against Wendy Davis in the Texas gubernatorial debate. In Austin it should be broadcast here live starting at 6 PM.