Posts Tagged ‘Hosni Mubarak’

Mubarak is Lying. Mubarak is Telling the Truth

Thursday, February 3rd, 2011

The latest from the beleaguered President of Egypt:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has said he would like to resign immediately but fears the country would descend into chaos if he did so.

In his first interview since anti-government protests began, he told ABC News he was “fed up” with power.

It came as Cairo saw another day of violence with clashes between the president’s opponents and supporters.

Mr Mubarak warned that the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood party would fill any power vacuum if he stepped down.

Mubarak is lying. Dictators almost never want to give up power, except to pass it on to their heirs. (There are exceptions, such as Turkey or Chile, where a military dictator stepped in to prevent a radical regime from inflicting further damage, only to step back and restore control once the danger (and the lives of some political opponents) had passed, but these are the exception rather than the rule.) If Mubarak was really tired of power, he could have stepped down any time in the last 30 years.

However, his statement that that the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood party would fill the power vacuum are, sadly, probably true.

What’s Going On In Egypt?

Wednesday, February 2nd, 2011

Good question. Wish I knew. Or, more accurately, wish I knew more than what I can glean from various reports, which is that anti-Mubarak forces are getting a smackdown from pro-Mubarak forces, including (reportedly) police (secret and otherwise) in disguise. Beyond those clashes, its hard to tell what is going on. Maybe Mubarak waited until popular rage had run its course, and delayed the crackdown until fears of disorder and looting drove the majority of non-hardcore protesters off the street before beginning the crackdown.

The more I’ve read the past few days, the more I think that Mubarak survives until his promised stepping down in the September elections. What I’ve seen is lots of anti-Mubarak forces saying he has to step down now, he can’t survive, etc., as well as similar noises from various international governments, but no reports of Egyptian generals or colonels saying the same thing.

A few other interesting articles on the situation:

  • First-hand report of The Battle of Tahir Square
  • A summary of events as they have unfolded so far. It talks about Gamal Mubarak’s technocrat friends working economic miracles but their takeover of the ruling ruling NDP party alienated the army, which saw the NDP as a rival power.
  • Michael Totten interviews Abbas Milani on parallels between Egypt today and the fall of the Shah in Iran.
  • The ever readable Christopher Hitchens on Mubarak’s shaming Egyptians. “It’s possible that people will overlook outright brutality sooner than they will forgive undisguised contempt.” (David Pryce-Jones also made much of the Arab shame/honor response in The Closed Circle.)
  • Egypt: A Fist, Slowly Clenching

    Monday, January 31st, 2011

    Hosni Mubarak seems to have adopted an interesting strategy to deal with the unrest gripping his country: Let the worst of it rage with a minimum of reprisals and crackdowns, and then slowly but surely reassert his control using the police and the military. Such a strategy walks the fine line between appearing weak enough to let the revolution push him out of power, and a Tienanmen-type crackdown that leaves thousands dead. So far it seems to be working: Despite some blips and waivers, the army still appears to be following Mubarak’s orders. If they continue to do so, it’s hard to see how the called-for general strike can be total enough to paralyze the nation. And if gas and food continue to make it through, it’s hard to see the general masses being radicalized enough to join the call to oust Mubarak.

    Also, National Review reminds us that the Muslim Brotherhood is bad news.

    Egypt Update for Monday, January 31

    Monday, January 31st, 2011

    The situation this morning looks much the same as it did last night: neither side backing down, the army following Mubarak’s orders (for now).

    Once again the live update pages have changed:

  • BBC
  • Al Jazeera
  • And here’s an interesting article placing the Egyptian situation in the context of higher global food prices, which is driving global unrest. So ethanol subsidies, which were supposed to ween us from dependence on unstable Middle Eastern sources of oil, are helping destabilize the Middle East. Good work, guys!

    Stratfor: Police and Army Redeploying, Both Suporting Mubarak For Now

    Sunday, January 30th, 2011

    Or so say their sources:

    The Egyptian military and internal security forces have coordinated a crackdown for the hours ahead in an effort to clear the streets of the demonstrators. The interior minister has meanwhile negotiated his stay for the time being, in spite of widespread expectations that he, seen by many Egyptians as the source of police brutality in the country, would be one of the first ministers that would have to be sacked in order to quell the demonstrations. Instead, both Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and al-Adly, the two main targets of ire for the demonstrators, seem to be betting that they can ride this crisis out and remain in power. So far, the military seems to be acquiescing to these decisions.

    More Sources for Live Egypt Updates

    Friday, January 28th, 2011
  • Pajamas Media
  • Max Fisher at the Atlantic
  • Al Jazeera (no RealPlayer required)
  • More Updates on Egypt; Unrest Spreading to Syria?

    Friday, January 28th, 2011

    More Egypt (and related) tidbits:

  • Stratfor is reporting that Egyptian security forces have fallen back from from Tahrir Square.
  • There are reports that the Internet in Syria has also been taken down, though other reports contradict this.
  • Elliot Abrams thinks the military might very well turn on Mubarak.
  • Dwight over at Whipped Cream Difficulties takes a look at Egypt’s situation and how it meets (or almost meets) the five modern criteria for a successful revolution.
  • If you like more updates than you can possibly look at (or like looking at the Fail Whale), here’s the Twitter view of events. (“2,077 more tweets since you started searching.”)
  • Egypt’s Tipping Point?

    Friday, January 28th, 2011

    Latest update from The live BBC feed:

    1724: BBC Arabic correspondent Khaled Ezzelarab in Cairo reports: “Despite the curfew, demonstrators are surrounding the building of Egyptian radio and TV and trying to break into it. The building is guarded by armed forces, and the demonstrators are cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people.””

    The vast majority of modern revolutions are not won by beating the government’s armies in the field, they’re won when the army no longer has the heart to fire on the people. If Mubarak still has the army on his side, he’ll survive the unrest. However, if he doesn’t, as the report above indicates, then it’s all over. The instant a dictator loses the army, he loses power. That’s why the Communist Chinese are still in power and Nicolae Ceausescu died of acute lead poisoning.

    Keeping Up With Protests In Egypt

    Friday, January 28th, 2011

    Protests spread across Egypt, the Internet is cut off, the military is mobilizing, and Nobel Peace prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei under house arrest.

    Some sources for live updates:

  • NRO’s updates.
  • Here’s a constantly updated BBC news page.
  • The Beeb’s updated compilation of eyewitness accounts.
  • Live blogging from the Christian Science Monitor.
  • Some people have been linking to Al Jazeera for live footage, but that requires installing RealPlayer, and there are some things I just won’t do

    Is this revolution a good or bad thing for Egypt? Depends on who comes out on top. Hosni Mubarak probably isn’t on the list of the ten most brutal and corrupt world leaders, but he probably does make the top twenty. Replacing him with a real Democratic government would be great. Replacing him with the Muslim Brotherhood would be like replace the Shah with Ayatollah Khomeini, only possibly a lot worse.