Posts Tagged ‘Joe Manchin’

LinkSwarm for March 31, 2017

Friday, March 31st, 2017

Welcome to April Fool’s Eve! Don’t believe anything you hear tomorrow. Especially if it’s from CNN…

  • Representative Moe Brooks of Alabama offers up a one sentence repeal of ObamaCare: “Effective as of Dec. 31, 2017, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is repealed, and the provisions of law amended or repealed by such Act are restored or revived as if such Act had not been enacted.” Get on it, GOP… (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • Why not give CruzCare a try?
  • Single-payer’s future is Venezuela’s present: “The communist model for healthcare will result in everyone having a right to healthcare and no one getting any of it. There will be black market health care for those who can afford it, a lovely parallel system for the politically well connected, and a crumbling system of overworked, over-regulated providers working to give some care to all the rest of us.”
  • Scott Adams: “With the failure of the Ryan healthcare bill, the illusion of Trump-is-Hitler has been fully replaced with Trump-is-incompetent meme.”
  • CrowdStrike, Patient Zero in the “Russia hacked the Democrats” vector, backtracks key claims.
  • “Filibustering Gorsuch might be a pointless exercise when it comes to keeping him off the court, but it would have the advantage of giving angry Democratic activists something they desperately want: an opportunity to lash out in fury at Republicans.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Democratic senators Joe Manchin (WV) and Heidi Heitkamp (ND) announced they will vote for Gorsuch.
  • Leftists are taking this fact with their usual grace and tact:

    Yeah, I have no idea who Mr. Checkmark Who Has Fewer Followers Than Me is either…

  • Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has seven facts for Democrats to consider before filibustering Gorsuch. “There has never been a successful partisan filibuster of a Supreme Court nominee.”
  • Hosni Mubarek freed in Egypt. But I mainly want to talk about the Times piece of an example of sins of omission by the newspaper of record. “The first democratic election, in 2012, brought to power a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi. But he lasted only a year, making a series of political blunders that cost him the support of the military, crucial parts of the security apparatus and millions of Egyptians, who gathered in the streets in June 2013 to call for his removal.” Yes, one might call “engineering a murderous rampage and instituting a dictatorship in order to fully Islamicize Egyptian society” a “blunder”…
  • So how’s that boycott against North Carolina over the tranny bathroom law panning out? Not so hot. “Tourism has thrived: Hotel occupancy, room rates and demand for rooms set records in 2016, according to the year-end hotel lodging report issued last week by VisitNC, part of the Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina.” (Hat tip: Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s Twitter feed.)
  • “Former Obama Official Describes Last-Minute Rush to Spy on Trump Team, Conceal Intel Sources.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • “Someone in a small circle of Obama intelligence officials who knew the identity of that American No. 1 committed a felony by leaking Flynn’s name to media.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Chicago follows in Detroit’s footsteps.
  • Journalists who exposed Planned Parenthood’s baby parts selling scheme indicted on felony eavesdropping charges in California. By an amazing coincidence, California Attorney General Xavier Becerra received donations from Planned Parenthood. What are the odds?
  • There’s an actual Wikipedia article for a list of grenade attacks in Sweden, which have exploded (ha) since 2012. Many occurred in Malmo. Gee, what could possibly be driving all these grenade attacks?
  • Euroweenie to campaign for independence of the People’s Republic of Austin. Good luck with that. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.
  • Trump as The Mule from Isaac Asimov’s Foundation and Empire. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • President Trump reverses four Obama regulations. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • $15,000 of Soros money a month per team to fight Trump.
  • You know that “1973 Manhattan was a nightmare of smog” picture your liberal Facebook friends have been posting? Debunked.
  • Behind the scenes of 2016’s wipeout of Republicans in Harris County.
  • Texas Senate votes to end automatic union payroll deductions.
  • Attorney General Ken Paxton’s trial venue is being moved, which is a victory for the prosecution. Given the dismissal of the SEC charges the case is based on, I still think the long-term prognosis points to acquittal or dismissal.
  • Homeowner 3, Robbers 0.
  • Are your sexual fetishes social justice warrior approved, comrade? If not, then expect to be fired…
  • “Spiders could theoretically eat every human on earth in a year and still be hungry.” Obviously this cries out for a research grant and a pilot program…
  • Internet Security issue: “Typosquatting programming language package managers.”
  • Troll level: Godlike.
  • Five-year old suspended for imaginary gun.
  • An obituary for the author of The Anarchist’s Cookbook.
  • McSweeney’s on packing the liberal go-bag. (Hat tip: Gay Patriot’s Twitter feed.)
  • Don McLean’s “American Pie” added to the National recording registry. “I’m really delighted that the government has taken notice of me in this way, and not by tapping my phone or something.” (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Want. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Hakeem Olajuwon: Better than Jordan.
  • Speaking of shocking statistics: “Steven Seagal released seven films in 2016. Seven.” (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • “Oh no! Not the bees! They’re in my eyes!
  • LinkSwarm for March 17, 2017

    Friday, March 17th, 2017

    Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Insert your own Irish-related drinking joke here.

  • President Trump’s approval ratings rise.
  • Did Obama use a British intelligence agency to spy on Trump? (Maybe not.)
  • Did the Obama Administration use Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac as a slush fund to pay for ObamaCare?
  • Senate Democrats are paralized what do to over Neil Gorsuch. Everyone agrees Gorsuch is extremely qualified, but the leftwing nutroots are threatening to primary any Democrat who votes to confirm him. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Finally: “A House panel held a hearing on possibly splitting the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Thursday morning.” (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • In talking about the House GOP’s pathetic ObamaCare replacement, Stephen Green hits the nail on the head: “Congress is warped because the American electorate has yet to accept that other people’s money does eventually run out — and that we are all the other people.” That’s why we need someone committed to reform in the White House, and Greece and Venezuela’s examples fresh in the public’s eye…
  • Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey: “What we reject is immigration without assimilation.” (Hat tip: Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit.)
  • ICE arrests 248 illegal aliens, most in the sanctuary city of Philadelphia. “20 had a conviction and/or pending charges or 48 percent (88 of those arrested had criminal convictions and 32 of those arrested have pending criminal charges). In addition, 50 had been previously removed from the United States and subsequently illegally re-entered.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Meanwhile, in Australia: “Teacher quits after primary school students threaten to behead her.” (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • “Iraqi government forces besieged Islamic State militants around Mosul’s Old City on Thursday, edging closer to the historic mosque from where the group’s leader declared a caliphate nearly three years ago.”
  • Former Democratic Representative Dennis Kucinich says that one of his phonecalls was wiretapped. “If a member of Congress can have his phone tapped, this can happen to anybody.”
  • Ten Senate Democrats are vulnerable in 2018. They’re prime targets for takedowns in the midterm elections. But the process starts now, not then…In order of vulnerability (most to least), the target list features: 1) Joe Donnelly-IN; 2) Bill Nelson-FL; 3) Sherrod Brown-OH; 4) Claire McCaskill-MO; 5) Heidi Heitkamp-ND; 6) Tammy Baldwin-WI; 7) Jon Tester-MN; 8) Joe Manchin-WV; 9) Debbie Stabenow-MI; 10) Bob Casey, Jr.-PA.” Agree with the list, but not the order, since Heitkamp hails from a state Trump won by 36 points. But seeing Stupak bloc flip-flopper Donnelly go down at last would be extremely satisfying…
  • Breakdown of 2016 Presidential race demographics. Least likely to vote for Trump: Black single women. Most likely to vote for Trump: Mormons. Usual poll caveats apply. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Remember convicted felon Brett Kimberlin? There’s always some Kimberlin news floating around the blogsphere, usually in relation to his latest ludicrous lawsuit getting laughed out of court. But this week he made the news for being involved in selling hoax documents designed to bring down Donald Trump. “The entire set of documents appear to have been forged as part of an elaborate scam.” So, like most Kimberlin escapades, the story ends in embarrassing failure. (Hat tip: The Other McCain.)
  • Cenk Uygur: Why the Democratic Party is useless. 1. As with all these critiques of the Democratic Party from the left, it’s right about the party being a corrupt institution for entrenched interests and wrong about America being gung ho for socialism. 2. Boy, that “not being polite” stuff sure helped Democrats recall Scott Walker! 3. “Cenk Uygur” sounds like a dark, forbidding fortress at the edge of Mordor.
  • Holland is the canary in the European coalmine of radical Islamization. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • Speaking of Holland, Geert Wilders placed second in Dutch elections, which falls short of a serious challenge to the Islamophillic and Eurocentric establishment.
  • Dear Sen. McCain: (Sigh).
  • Rand Paul fires back: “He makes a really, really strong case for term limits. I think maybe he’s past his prime. I think maybe he’s gotten a little bit unhinged.”
  • Germany wants to fine companies for not censoring fast enough. What do you want to bet that objections to the rousing success of their Muslim immigration policy are first on the list of things to be censored?
  • Camille Paglia has a new book out, and offers up an interview where she talks about modern feminism (against), southern women (for), working class men (for), Michel Foucault (against), and pornography (for).
  • Soros Fellow Flees Country While Wife Arrested For Welfare Scam.” It seems that earning $1.5 million a year at the Washington, D.C., offices of Mayer Brown LLP just wasn’t enough for Fidelis Agbapuruonwu… (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • Three #BlackLivesMatter protestors arrested for beating up a homeless man.
  • Man gets a C when he should have gotten an A for a school assignment. So he did what any of us would have done: Successfully amends the Constitution. (Hat tip: Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willett’s Twitter feed.)
  • Dwight has some Austin-related memoes from the police beat.
  • “Coming up next on Most ShockingMormon Justice!”
  • King King burns.
  • He divided them again!
  • Schumer steals again. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Singer Kelly Clarkson is selling her Tennessee mansion. I like how it’s half typical rich-person mansion, and half Bass Pro Shop…
  • Ted Cruz files for Reelection to Senate

    Friday, May 13th, 2016

    After dropping out of the Presidential race, Ted Cruz filed for reelection to the Senate in 2018.

    You would think this is pretty early, but at least three senators, Democratic Bill Nelson of Florida, Independent Angus King of Maine (who caucuses with Democrats) and Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia), have also announced reelection bids. Given that Manchin is probably the last Blue Dog Democrat in the senate, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him cross the aisle to join the Republicans between now and 2018.

    Cruz Filibuster Fallout

    Thursday, September 26th, 2013

    A roundup of reactions and fallout from Ted Cruz’s mammoth 21-hour anti-OabamCare speech effort:

  • The battle is joined:
    • There is new leadership in the GOP, whether the party wants to admit it or not: Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Jeff Sessions
    • The popular reaction to Cruz will be immediate and noticeable; the more the old bulls carp, the more the public will rally to Cruz’s side.
    • conservatives understand that rather than form a third party, their only hope is to seize control of the corrupt, rotting hulk of the GOP.
    • The Cruz faction in the Senate, and its allies in the House (whose leadership is now up for grabs) must now press their advantage. The louder the Democrats squawk, the more they are wounded; the one thing they’ve long feared is a direct assault on their core beliefs as translated into actions, and the deleterious effects of Obamacare, just now being felt by the population, are the most vivid proof of the failure of Progressivism that conservatives could wish for.
    • There is no reason to think the Tea Party, if properly organized and harnessed, cannot be even more potent next year than it was in 2010, especially now that its members know the government really was out to get them.
  • “Ted Cruz spoke on the Senate floor for 21 hours for a simple purpose: to focus the eyes of Washington and the nation on the fact that Obamacare has failed.”
  • Cruz’s basic talking points.
  • The power of conviction.
  • Ted Cruz is making all the right enemies.
  • Four things Ted Cruz accomplished. “Cruz’s talkathon revealed that there was substance behind the sizzle that he represents to the Republican base.”
  • NY Rep. Peter King is furious that Ted Cruz has a spine.
  • “There is a real and genuine disconnect between grassroots conservatives and many in Washington.”
  • Chris Matthews compares Ted Cruz to Father Coughlin and Joe McCarthy.
  • The hypocritical difference between the media’s fawning coverage of Wendy Davis’ filibuster and Cruz’s.
  • The only reason young people would sign up for ObamaCare is if they suck at math.
  • Cracks in Democrat’s resolve are already appearing.
  • A complete transcript of Cruz’s filibuster.
  • Everyone know the real problem in Washington, D.C. is not that the debt limit is too low, it’s that government is too big and spends too much money that it doesn’t have, and meddles in things best left up to free citizens. Just as Ted Cruz did, we need to make those same points over and over again in the ongoing debt limit and ObamaCare battles, because we’re right.

    Legislative Mountain Labors To Give Birth to Dead Gun Control Mouse

    Wednesday, April 17th, 2013

    Manchin-Toomey went down in flames today, a cloture vote falling six votes short (including four Democrats (Baucus (MT), Begich (AK), Heitkamp (ND) and Pryor (AK) voting no) of the 60 it needed.

    Let’s catalog what Democrats won’t be getting during the current congress, shall we?

  • No national gun confiscation regime, like the one imposed in Australia.
  • No ban on civilian gun ownership, like Sen. Diane Feinstein has admitted she wants to impose.
  • No universal gun registration act.
  • No national “high” capacity magazine ban.
  • No modern sporting rifle (AKA “assault weapon”) ban.
  • No reinstitution of the Clinton-era cosmetic modern sporting rifle ban.
  • And, with the defeat of Manchin-Toomey, no “universal background check” as a prelude to a national gun registry.
  • This is one case in which the Senate’s deliberative style has worked in conservative’s favor. If Harry Reid had been able to ram through a vote days after the Sandy Hook massacre (as happened in New York), it’s very possible some sort of gun control might have passed. But with time for the knee-jerk emotional response to die down, and for the NRA and gun owners across America to mobilize, all Democrats managed to do was endanger a few senate careers, both among themselves and the RINO herd. Remember Michael Moore declaring how the NRA was doomed?

    Didn’t work out that way, did it?

    Instead, they got…well, let’s Mr. Wonka break it down for them:

    And how about a little sad trombone?

    And thanks to Senator Ted Cruz for fighting the good fight.

    Shall Not Be Questioned has the blow-by-blow description of the Senate debate.

    A Dollop of Gun News

    Wednesday, January 16th, 2013

    Lots of news in the world of guns and the Second Amendment today, so here’s a quick lunchtime roundup:

  • So Obama has issued his executive orders on guns. The good news is that the Executive Orders themselves are not nearly as bad as many feared, at least on the surface. But remember that if you give Obama a constitutional inch, he’ll take an unconstitutional mile. His requested legislation, with restoration of the cosmetic Clinton-era “assault weapons” ban and other such mischief, are a different kettle of fish, but I’m cautiously optimistic that none of them will pass muster in the Republican House.
  • Hell even Harry Reid says that the “Assault Weapons” ban is doomed.
  • The title pretty much says it all: Joe Manchin: Lying Sack of Shit on Guns.
  • All Obama’s proposed legislation is just the latest in a long line of passing
    gun laws that in no way would have prevented the crimes they were passed in reaction to
    . (Hat tip: Say Uncle.)

  • “The D.C. gun control laws irrationally prevent only law abiding citizens from owning handguns.”
  • Cracked, of all places, offers up a dose of perspective. “Gun violence has, generally speaking, been working out pretty spiffy for us.” The writer’s suggestions are as useless as the “Assault Weapon” ban, but are at least less harmful.
  • An average of 22 children a year are killed on school buses or in bus loading zones. Where’s the outcry for bus safety?
  • Mark Steyn notes that for MSM elites, laws are for the little people.
  • Ruger’s automatic letter generator for your congresscritters.
  • Jeff Soyer at Alphecca could use your help.
  • Democrats Can’t Help Wanting to Ban Guns. It’s What They Do.

    Tuesday, December 18th, 2012

    Like a foolish dog returning to eat its own sick, liberals can’t stay away from expressing their long pent-up desire to disarm law-abiding Americans. Their central governing principle is to give more money and power to the federal government (or the UN, when they can get away with it), and independent gun owners stand in their way. The Sandy Hook shooting victims weren’t even in the ground before Democratic lawmakers were calling on Obama to “exploit” (their words) the tragedy to push for more gun control.

    Liberals seem to regard guns like Sauron’s One Ring: as an evil object of magical power that automatically warps and corrupts the user. Frequently, they also seem to see people disagreeing with them as a sign of mental illness. (Check Twitter for how many call 2nd Amendment activists “sick” or “insane.”) I suspect that makes it harder for them to recognize real mental illness. And when they say they want a “dialog” over guns, what they really mean is “Shut up and hand over your guns and I’ll temporarily stop calling you deranged, bloodthirsty killers.”

    When the plan to deter gun use by the criminal and insane starts out “Step 1: Disarm the Sane and Law-Abiding,” I think I see a flaw in their brilliant scheme. It’s as if there were a rash of food poisonings from unlicensed food carts, and the liberal solution was to ban an all food carts.

    Two years ago I said that when push comes to shove, there’s no such thing as a pro-gun Democrat, and this week West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is the prime example, “A” rating from the NRA notwithstanding. Expect any pro-gun Democrats to either undergo a mysterious conversion to the gun-grabbing cause, or get pushed out of the party, just like nominally “pro-life Democrats” either caved (Bart Stupak and his bloc) or were pushed out (pretty much every national election over the last 20 years).

    Other Sandy Hook shooting fallout:

  • David Kopel notes that “Today, Americans are safer from violent crime, including gun homicide, than they have been at any time since the mid-1960s.” (Kopel is author of The Samurai, the Mountie, and the Cowboy, which I recommend for anyone serious about looking at both sides of the debate over gun control.)
  • Remember that the problem of random mass murder is not a new one. “Mass murder was just as common during the 1920s and 30s as it has been since the mid-1960s.”
  • It’s hard to tell from the media reports, but the .223 Bushmaster reportedly used by shooter Adam Lanza does not appear to have any of the cosmetic features covered by the Clinton-era “assault weapons” ban (i.e., any two of a folding stock, pistol grip, bayonet mount, barrel shroud or flash suppressor). Therefore it’s not an “assault weapon.” (The liberal definition of an “assault weapon” is “any gun that looks scary.”)
  • And the result of the Clinton “assault weapon” ban? As per Clayton E. Cramer, “he policy has been tried and found wanting.”
  • Every single recent mass killing save one has taken place in a “gun free” zone.
  • John Lott, author of the essential More Guns, Less Crime, says that we should arm teachers and ban “gun free zones.”
  • Notice how the repeated failure of gun control is always used as the justification for more gun control? Which is pretty much liberal policy on every issue (welfare spending, regulation, etc.) in a nutshell.
  • The record of gun control in reducing crime in other countries is also generally one of failure as well.
  • Here in Austin, the owner of Thai Noodle House (probably the worst Thai restaurant in town) declared that “I don’t care if a bunch of white kids got killed.” Strangely enough this did not win him many friends, and the restaurant is currently closed.
  • For still another view of the problem, read “I Am Adam Lanza’s Mother,” probably the most passed-around article in the blogsphere and Twitter this week.
  • BattleSwarm Blog’s Election Prediction for 2010: GOP Gains 67 House Seats, 10 Senate Seats

    Monday, November 1st, 2010

    With the election tomorrow, I thought it was high time to offer up my own election predictions.

    I have carefully and scientifically evaluated each and every House and Senate race, taking into account length of incumbency, previous voting trends for each district and state, fund-raising advantage, the most recent polls, and the fact that every preceding clause in this sentence prior to this one has been a complete and utter lie.

    I have looked at a lot of polls and data but damn, there are only so many hours in the day. My predictions are based on general national mood, gut-feeling, and detailed looks at trends for select races.

    This is going to be worse for the Democrats than 1994. The rise of the Netroots and the overwhelming support among the traditional news media dangerously blinded liberal insiders from how badly out-of-sync with the rest of the country they had become, and their insistence to push onward with ObamaCare despite widespread opposition and a lousy economy turned what was already going to be a bad year for them into a once-in-a-lifetime political slaughter.

    I predict that the Democrats will lose 67 House seats.

    As I admitted above, that’s not a wild-assed guess, but a guestimate based on current polling data and news on individual races. I don’t see Republicans gaining less than 50 seats, and there’s an outside possibility they could get 100. To my mind, it’s much more likely they’ll gain more than 67 than less than 50.

    Among the individual House races, I predict all the Stupak-bloc flippers except Marcy Kaptur (who had the luck to draw Nazi Uniform Guy as her opponent) and Jerry Costello (much as I appreciate GOP candidate Teri Newman popping in to say the race is tied, I just don’t see any traction at all in a 54% Obama district; I’d love to be surprised) will lose, including:

    1. Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana
    2. Indiana’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by Brad Ellsworth)
    3. Michigan’s open 1st congressional seat (formerly held by Bart Stupak)
    4. James Oberstar of Minnesota
    5. Steve Driehaus of Ohio
    6. Charles Wilson of Ohio
    7. Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania
    8. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania
    9. Solomon Ortiz of Texas

    Additionally, I’m predicting that all of the following Democrats representing districts that voted for McCain in 2008 lose their jobs:

    1. Bobby Bright of Alabama
    2. Arkansas’ open 1st congressional district (formerly held by Marion Barry (AKA “the other Marion Barry”))
    3. Arkansas’ open 2nd congressional district (formerly held by Vic Snyder)
    4. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona
    5. Harry Mitchell of Arizona
    6. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona
    7. John Salazar of Colorado
    8. Betsy Markey of Colorado
    9. Allen Boyd of Florida
    10. Suzanne Kosmas of Florida
    11. Jim Marshall of Georgia
    12. Baron Hill of Indiana
    13. Ben Chandler of Kentucky
    14. Louisiana’s open 3rd congressional district (formerly held by Charlie Melancon)
    15. Frank Kratovil of Maryland
    16. Ike Skelton of Missouri
    17. Travis Childers of Mississippi
    18. Gene Taylor of Mississippi
    19. Mike McIntyre of North Carolina
    20. Heath Schuler of North Carolina
    21. Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota
    22. Harry Teague of New Mexico
    23. Michael McMahon of New York
    24. New York’s open 29th congressional district (formerly held by Eric Massa)
    25. John Boccieri of Ohio
    26. Zack Space of Ohio
    27. Christopher Carney of Pennsylvania
    28. Mark Critz of Pennsylvania (serving the remainder of the late John P. Murtha’s term)
    29. John Spratt of South Carolina
    30. Stephanie Sandlin of South Dakota
    31. Lincoln Davis of Tennessee
    32. Tennessee’s open 6th congressional district (formerly held by Bart Gordon)
    33. Tennessee’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by John Tanner)
    34. Chet Edwards of Texas
    35. Tom Perriello of Virginia
    36. Rick Boucher of Virginia
    37. West Virgina’s first district (held by Allan Mollohan, who was defeated in the Democratic primaries)

    That’s 46 seats right there, and I think there’s easily another 21 seats to be had in districts that went narrowly for Obama in 2008 to provide the final margin of victory.

    I predict that the Democrats will lose 10 Senate seats.

    The Senate is a tougher nut to flip this year, and as I set down to gauge Republican chances, I was shocked to find that, despite insider predictions, I actually had them winning ten seats to take control of the Senate. Running down the Senate races that Real Clear Politics shows as tossups I was only getting nine seats, but then I remembered that Blanche Lincoln is losing so badly in Arkansas that they had that down as a safe Republican flip.

    Republicans should take over the following ten Senate seats:

    1. Arkansas
    2. Colorado
    3. Illinois
    4. Indiana
    5. Kentucky
    6. Nevada
    7. Pennsylvania
    8. Washington
    9. West Virginia
    10. Wisconsin

    Much as I’d like to see an upset in California, I don’t see Carly Fiorina getting any traction in an overwhelmingly blue state; I think the out-migration of California’s best and brightest due to the high tax rates, crummy economy, the overwhelmingly powerful public sector unions and a near-bankrupt government (all related phenomena) has, ironically, made Californian even bluer.

    The two races of the ten that will be most difficult for Republicans to pull off are Washington and West Virginia. Washington may be the tightest, simply because the Left Coast is so blue, but Rossi has been steadily gaining on Murray, and actually pulled ahead in the latest PPP poll. And PPP usually has a Democratic bias, so in a wave election, you have to give it to the Republican if polling is within the margin of error.

    In West Virginia, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a victory for Republican John Raese even though Joe Manchin is up four points in the most recent poll, for the following reasons:

    • McCain won West Virginia by 13.1 points in 2008, which was four points above the poll RCP average. Asking Manchin to run 14 points better in 2010 than Obama did in 2008 is a pretty tall order.
    • The state has been trending Republican for years. It went for Clinton over both Bush41 and Dole, but for Bush43 over Gore by 6.3%, and Bush43 over Kerry by 12.9%.
    • West Virginia fits the classic demographic pattern for “Reagan Democrats”: It’s 94.4% white, and is relatively rural and blue collar, and with a household income significantly below the national average. Those are the very voters that are abandoning Democrats this year.
    • Along those same lines, Hillary Clinton beat Obama handily here in 2008, even though Obama had all but clinched the nomination at the time. West Virginia voters fit the classic “Jacksonian” profile, the portions of the Democratic base that has been most alienated by Obama’s policies.
    • Say what you will about the late Senator Robert Byrd, but he was extraordinarily popular in his home state right up to the end. But his name isn’t on the top of the ballot this time around, and without that reminder of their old “born and bred” Democratic allegiance to remind them, 2010 may finally be the year when remaining West Virginia conservative Democrats make the switch to the GOP.
    • The areas that have been most fruitful for Democratic fraud efforts in the past have been urban enclaves with strong Democratic minority machine politics, which are pretty much absent here.
    • Logic dictates that if that this truly is a nationalized “wave” election, it will show up strongly here.

    Honestly, I think the Democrats taking the Washington senate seat is more likely that West Virginia.

    So the Republicans take both House and Senate in an electoral slaughter unprecedented in modern times. So I have foretold, and so it shall be!

    And if you disagree, post your own predictions below.