Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Insert your own Irish-related drinking joke here.
Posts Tagged ‘Joe Manchin’
After dropping out of the Presidential race, Ted Cruz filed for reelection to the Senate in 2018.
You would think this is pretty early, but at least three senators, Democratic Bill Nelson of Florida, Independent Angus King of Maine (who caucuses with Democrats) and Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia), have also announced reelection bids. Given that Manchin is probably the last Blue Dog Democrat in the senate, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him cross the aisle to join the Republicans between now and 2018.
A roundup of reactions and fallout from Ted Cruz’s mammoth 21-hour anti-OabamCare speech effort:
- There is new leadership in the GOP, whether the party wants to admit it or not: Cruz, Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Jeff Sessions
- The popular reaction to Cruz will be immediate and noticeable; the more the old bulls carp, the more the public will rally to Cruz’s side.
- conservatives understand that rather than form a third party, their only hope is to seize control of the corrupt, rotting hulk of the GOP.
- The Cruz faction in the Senate, and its allies in the House (whose leadership is now up for grabs) must now press their advantage. The louder the Democrats squawk, the more they are wounded; the one thing they’ve long feared is a direct assault on their core beliefs as translated into actions, and the deleterious effects of Obamacare, just now being felt by the population, are the most vivid proof of the failure of Progressivism that conservatives could wish for.
- There is no reason to think the Tea Party, if properly organized and harnessed, cannot be even more potent next year than it was in 2010, especially now that its members know the government really was out to get them.
Everyone know the real problem in Washington, D.C. is not that the debt limit is too low, it’s that government is too big and spends too much money that it doesn’t have, and meddles in things best left up to free citizens. Just as Ted Cruz did, we need to make those same points over and over again in the ongoing debt limit and ObamaCare battles, because we’re right.
Manchin-Toomey went down in flames today, a cloture vote falling six votes short (including four Democrats (Baucus (MT), Begich (AK), Heitkamp (ND) and Pryor (AK) voting no) of the 60 it needed.
Let’s catalog what Democrats won’t be getting during the current congress, shall we?
This is one case in which the Senate’s deliberative style has worked in conservative’s favor. If Harry Reid had been able to ram through a vote days after the Sandy Hook massacre (as happened in New York), it’s very possible some sort of gun control might have passed. But with time for the knee-jerk emotional response to die down, and for the NRA and gun owners across America to mobilize, all Democrats managed to do was endanger a few senate careers, both among themselves and the RINO herd. Remember Michael Moore declaring how the NRA was doomed?
Didn’t work out that way, did it?
Instead, they got…well, let’s Mr. Wonka break it down for them:
And how about a little sad trombone?
And thanks to Senator Ted Cruz for fighting the good fight.
Shall Not Be Questioned has the blow-by-blow description of the Senate debate.
Lots of news in the world of guns and the Second Amendment today, so here’s a quick lunchtime roundup:
gun laws that in no way would have prevented the crimes they were passed in reaction to. (Hat tip: Say Uncle.)
Like a foolish dog returning to eat its own sick, liberals can’t stay away from expressing their long pent-up desire to disarm law-abiding Americans. Their central governing principle is to give more money and power to the federal government (or the UN, when they can get away with it), and independent gun owners stand in their way. The Sandy Hook shooting victims weren’t even in the ground before Democratic lawmakers were calling on Obama to “exploit” (their words) the tragedy to push for more gun control.
Liberals seem to regard guns like Sauron’s One Ring: as an evil object of magical power that automatically warps and corrupts the user. Frequently, they also seem to see people disagreeing with them as a sign of mental illness. (Check Twitter for how many call 2nd Amendment activists “sick” or “insane.”) I suspect that makes it harder for them to recognize real mental illness. And when they say they want a “dialog” over guns, what they really mean is “Shut up and hand over your guns and I’ll temporarily stop calling you deranged, bloodthirsty killers.”
When the plan to deter gun use by the criminal and insane starts out “Step 1: Disarm the Sane and Law-Abiding,” I think I see a flaw in their brilliant scheme. It’s as if there were a rash of food poisonings from unlicensed food carts, and the liberal solution was to ban an all food carts.
Two years ago I said that when push comes to shove, there’s no such thing as a pro-gun Democrat, and this week West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is the prime example, “A” rating from the NRA notwithstanding. Expect any pro-gun Democrats to either undergo a mysterious conversion to the gun-grabbing cause, or get pushed out of the party, just like nominally “pro-life Democrats” either caved (Bart Stupak and his bloc) or were pushed out (pretty much every national election over the last 20 years).
Other Sandy Hook shooting fallout:
With the election tomorrow, I thought it was high time to offer up my own election predictions.
I have carefully and scientifically evaluated each and every House and Senate race, taking into account length of incumbency, previous voting trends for each district and state, fund-raising advantage, the most recent polls, and the fact that every preceding clause in this sentence prior to this one has been a complete and utter lie.
I have looked at a lot of polls and data but damn, there are only so many hours in the day. My predictions are based on general national mood, gut-feeling, and detailed looks at trends for select races.
This is going to be worse for the Democrats than 1994. The rise of the Netroots and the overwhelming support among the traditional news media dangerously blinded liberal insiders from how badly out-of-sync with the rest of the country they had become, and their insistence to push onward with ObamaCare despite widespread opposition and a lousy economy turned what was already going to be a bad year for them into a once-in-a-lifetime political slaughter.
I predict that the Democrats will lose 67 House seats.
As I admitted above, that’s not a wild-assed guess, but a guestimate based on current polling data and news on individual races. I don’t see Republicans gaining less than 50 seats, and there’s an outside possibility they could get 100. To my mind, it’s much more likely they’ll gain more than 67 than less than 50.
Among the individual House races, I predict all the Stupak-bloc flippers except Marcy Kaptur (who had the luck to draw Nazi Uniform Guy as her opponent) and Jerry Costello (much as I appreciate GOP candidate Teri Newman popping in to say the race is tied, I just don’t see any traction at all in a 54% Obama district; I’d love to be surprised) will lose, including:
- Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana
- Indiana’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by Brad Ellsworth)
- Michigan’s open 1st congressional seat (formerly held by Bart Stupak)
- James Oberstar of Minnesota
- Steve Driehaus of Ohio
- Charles Wilson of Ohio
- Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania
- Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania
- Solomon Ortiz of Texas
Additionally, I’m predicting that all of the following Democrats representing districts that voted for McCain in 2008 lose their jobs:
- Bobby Bright of Alabama
- Arkansas’ open 1st congressional district (formerly held by Marion Barry (AKA “the other Marion Barry”))
- Arkansas’ open 2nd congressional district (formerly held by Vic Snyder)
- Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona
- Harry Mitchell of Arizona
- Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona
- John Salazar of Colorado
- Betsy Markey of Colorado
- Allen Boyd of Florida
- Suzanne Kosmas of Florida
- Jim Marshall of Georgia
- Baron Hill of Indiana
- Ben Chandler of Kentucky
- Louisiana’s open 3rd congressional district (formerly held by Charlie Melancon)
- Frank Kratovil of Maryland
- Ike Skelton of Missouri
- Travis Childers of Mississippi
- Gene Taylor of Mississippi
- Mike McIntyre of North Carolina
- Heath Schuler of North Carolina
- Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota
- Harry Teague of New Mexico
- Michael McMahon of New York
- New York’s open 29th congressional district (formerly held by Eric Massa)
- John Boccieri of Ohio
- Zack Space of Ohio
- Christopher Carney of Pennsylvania
- Mark Critz of Pennsylvania (serving the remainder of the late John P. Murtha’s term)
- John Spratt of South Carolina
- Stephanie Sandlin of South Dakota
- Lincoln Davis of Tennessee
- Tennessee’s open 6th congressional district (formerly held by Bart Gordon)
- Tennessee’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by John Tanner)
- Chet Edwards of Texas
- Tom Perriello of Virginia
- Rick Boucher of Virginia
- West Virgina’s first district (held by Allan Mollohan, who was defeated in the Democratic primaries)
That’s 46 seats right there, and I think there’s easily another 21 seats to be had in districts that went narrowly for Obama in 2008 to provide the final margin of victory.
I predict that the Democrats will lose 10 Senate seats.
The Senate is a tougher nut to flip this year, and as I set down to gauge Republican chances, I was shocked to find that, despite insider predictions, I actually had them winning ten seats to take control of the Senate. Running down the Senate races that Real Clear Politics shows as tossups I was only getting nine seats, but then I remembered that Blanche Lincoln is losing so badly in Arkansas that they had that down as a safe Republican flip.
Republicans should take over the following ten Senate seats:
- West Virginia
Much as I’d like to see an upset in California, I don’t see Carly Fiorina getting any traction in an overwhelmingly blue state; I think the out-migration of California’s best and brightest due to the high tax rates, crummy economy, the overwhelmingly powerful public sector unions and a near-bankrupt government (all related phenomena) has, ironically, made Californian even bluer.
The two races of the ten that will be most difficult for Republicans to pull off are Washington and West Virginia. Washington may be the tightest, simply because the Left Coast is so blue, but Rossi has been steadily gaining on Murray, and actually pulled ahead in the latest PPP poll. And PPP usually has a Democratic bias, so in a wave election, you have to give it to the Republican if polling is within the margin of error.
In West Virginia, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a victory for Republican John Raese even though Joe Manchin is up four points in the most recent poll, for the following reasons:
- McCain won West Virginia by 13.1 points in 2008, which was four points above the poll RCP average. Asking Manchin to run 14 points better in 2010 than Obama did in 2008 is a pretty tall order.
- The state has been trending Republican for years. It went for Clinton over both Bush41 and Dole, but for Bush43 over Gore by 6.3%, and Bush43 over Kerry by 12.9%.
- West Virginia fits the classic demographic pattern for “Reagan Democrats”: It’s 94.4% white, and is relatively rural and blue collar, and with a household income significantly below the national average. Those are the very voters that are abandoning Democrats this year.
- Along those same lines, Hillary Clinton beat Obama handily here in 2008, even though Obama had all but clinched the nomination at the time. West Virginia voters fit the classic “Jacksonian” profile, the portions of the Democratic base that has been most alienated by Obama’s policies.
- Say what you will about the late Senator Robert Byrd, but he was extraordinarily popular in his home state right up to the end. But his name isn’t on the top of the ballot this time around, and without that reminder of their old “born and bred” Democratic allegiance to remind them, 2010 may finally be the year when remaining West Virginia conservative Democrats make the switch to the GOP.
- The areas that have been most fruitful for Democratic fraud efforts in the past have been urban enclaves with strong Democratic minority machine politics, which are pretty much absent here.
- Logic dictates that if that this truly is a nationalized “wave” election, it will show up strongly here.
Honestly, I think the Democrats taking the Washington senate seat is more likely that West Virginia.
So the Republicans take both House and Senate in an electoral slaughter unprecedented in modern times. So I have foretold, and so it shall be!
And if you disagree, post your own predictions below.