Posts Tagged ‘John Cornyn’

Patrick, Paxton, Sitton Win, Miller Leading

Tuesday, May 27th, 2014

According to the latest results.

Both Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton were hovering around 64-65% of the vote, which is pretty decisive.

Ryan Sitton is currently winning with 58% to Wayne Christian’s 42% for Railroad Commissioner. That’s a mild surprise to me, but down ballot races are harder to predict, and I did notice a late direct mail push from Sitton.

Sid Miller is currently leading Tommy Merritt 54-46% for Agriculture Commissioner, but they haven’t called the race yet.

On the Democrat’s side, David Alameel beat Larouchite Keisha Rogers fairly handily, 72% to 28%, for the chance to be slaughtered by John Cornyn in the Senate race. And Kinky Friedman appears to have lost to non-campaigning candidate Jim Hogan 55%-45% for Agriculture Commissioner. As to why, maybe Texas Democrats hate one or more of: Marijuana, Jews, country music singers, mystery writers, guys who smoke cigars, or guys named Kinky. Or they still hate him for running as an independent in 2006. Or they like guys with nice Anglo names. Take your pick.

More tomorrow (maybe).

A Quick Overview of Primary Results

Wednesday, March 5th, 2014

A very brief look at last night’s primary results:

  • John Cornyn won, but couldn’t break 60% against a field of underfunded challengers.
  • The Democratic Senate runoff is going to be between the big-spender David Alameel and the LaRouche candidate Kesha Rogers.
  • As expected, both Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis won their gubernatorial primaries. But Abbott garnered 91% and over 1.2 million votes, the most of any candidate for any office. By contrast, Davis got 432,000 votes and won 79% of the vote against underfunded challenger Ray Madrigal, indicating a distinct enthusiasm gap despite Davis’ nationwide MSM cheer-leading corps.
  • Dan Patrick’s early lead over incumbent David Dewhurst in the Lt. Governor’s race held up. Patrick pulled in 550,742 votes for 41.5% of the vote, while Dewhurst got 376,164 votes for 28.3%. Maybe Dewhurst can carpet-bomb the runoff with money, but that’s an awful big gap to make up. We knew that Dewhurst losing to Cruz in 2012 hurt him; now we know how much.
  • Ken Paxton takes the lead into the runoff with 566,080 votes over Dan Branch’s 426,561.
  • Glenn Hegar is hovering right at the threshold of beating Harvey Hildebran outright in the Comptroller race.
  • George P. Bush garnered 934,501 to win the Land Commissioner primary…or over twice as many votes as Wendy Davis.
  • Sid Miller (410,273) and Tommy Merritt (248,568) are heading for a runoff for Agricultural Commissioner, leaving Joe Straus ally Eric Opiela out in the cold.
  • All the Ted Cruz-endorsed Supreme Court incumbents won their races.
  • Super-tight runoff in U.S. House District 23 between Francisco “Quico” Canseco and Will Hurd to face Democratic incumbent Pete Gallego. Canseco held the seat before Gallego, and whoever wins the runoff has a good chance of taking the swing seat back.
  • Katrina Pierson was unable to unseat Pete Sessions in U.S. House District 32, garnering 36.4% of the vote. As I feared, Sarah Palin’s endorsement came to late to truly capitalize on it in fundraising.
  • Matt McCall did even better, where he and another challenger kept Lamar Smith at 60.4% in U.S. House District 21. Though they won their primaries, Sessions and Smith might be vulnerable to further challenges in 2016.
  • As far as I can tell, every U.S. or statewide incumbent Republican either won or is leading their race. Except David Dewhurst.
  • Steve Stockman is Not Getting The Job Done Against John Cornyn

    Monday, March 3rd, 2014

    Given Senator John Cornyn’s deviations from conservative orthodoxy, many Tea Party supporters were relieved when Rep. Steve Stockman finally stepped up to primary him at the last minute. Stockman was a solid conservative, and people hoped he could at least give Cornyn a run for his money.

    That hope proved short-lived.

    Stockman has run a very poor campaign. He has missed numerous campaign events. I would say his fundraising has been poor, except the most recent FEC report I have been able to find doesn’t show him having raised any funds at all. (This is not the first time Stockman has had problems with filling out FEC forms.) His missing-in-action campaign is a sharp contrast with Ted Cruz’s smart, disciplined underdog campaign in 2012.

    Other revelations about his past haven’t helped either. Records show that Stockman hasn’t voted in a primary in 10 years.

    Given the dysfunctional nature of the Stockman campaign, it’s not a surprise that Tea Party supporters have largely given up on him as well.

    I thought that Stockman got into the race too late to have real chance to beat Cornyn, but I didn’t expect him to do such a miserable job.

    Scenes from the Cornyn-Stockman Senate Race

    Thursday, January 2nd, 2014

    A few tidbits on this race:

  • Steve Stockman is now accepting Bitcoins for his run against John Cornyn. This is pretty much a gimmick, as the tiny, Slashdot-centric audience who follow Bitcoin are singularly unlikely to involve themselves in Republican Party primaries. Another tiny problem: they’re not approved as a donation method by the FEC.
  • John Cornyn gets endorsed by the NRA. An incumbent Republican Senator with an A rating from the NRA getting their endorsement is hardly a surprise, but it’s a good pickup for him, especially since Stockman recently said that the tears of liberals make the best gun lubricant, and counts both the NRA and Gun Owners of America among previous endorsements.
  • Cornyn’s Texans for a Conservative Majority SuperPAC has already spent $70,000 slamming Stockman.
  • Stockman also compared Cornyn to PajamaBoy (Warning: Wiegel/Slate). That’s not so much a stretch as a rubber-band that’s already broken and been thrown away…
  • The only poll I’ve seen has Cornyn up 44 points, though this early that’s largely a name-recognition issue.
  • Cornyn’s name will appear last on Brewster county’s ballots.
  • 2014 Texas Senate Race Field Set

    Tuesday, December 10th, 2013

    Finally, John Cornyn has a real challenger. Steve Stockman has Tea Party support, impeccable conservative credentials, experience in high profile races (he knocked off Democratic fossil Jack Brooks for a U.S. congressional seat in the Gingrich wave of 1994), and a Southeast Texas base that might (might) let him tap into Houston’s rich Republican fundraising base. But he has gotten into the race very, very late, against a well-funded opponent whose deviations into RINO-Land have been far less severe those of Arlen Specter, DIck Luger or David Dewhurst (and that role-call of names is probably slightly unfair to Dewhurst). Ted Cruz had about fifteen months to knock off Dewhurst, while Stockman has three to take down Cornyn. Further, while Cruz’s race against Dewhurst was one of the top Tea Party vs. RINO races nationwide, I get the impression the Stockman/Cornyn fight will take a distinct backseat to Matt Bevin’s attempt to take down Mitch McConnell, and possibly several other races.

    It’s certainly possible that Stockman can take out Cornyn, but it’s going to be very difficult, especially while still carrying out his congressional duties.

    For the sake of completeness, here’s a look at the other candidates.

    Republicans

  • Curt Cleaver: A retread longshot from the 2012 Senate Race.
  • Ken Cope: The Midlothian Enigma, about which The Google has precious little to say. This year’s Grady Yarbrough?
  • Chris Mapp: Boat dealership owner. Seems like a solid Tea Party Republican but the man desperately needs to learn how to use indenting and/or paragraph breaks.
  • Dwayne Stover: A bridge-builder. I don’t mean that metaphorically, I mean that his company actually builds bridges.
  • Read Reasor: Good: Former F-15 pilot. Bad: His platform (if you can call it such, being a Facebook post, since his website doesn’t currently work) is a strange mashup of WPA works program, workfare and local autarky. I would like to see his “let welfare recipients build their own home” idea run as a small pilot project somewhere, but his plan has more than a whiff of late-night college bull sessions to it.
  • Linda Vega: A Houston-area lawyer. She has a good resume…for someone running for a county judge position. U.S. Senate? Not so much.
  • Democrats:

  • David Alameel: Former dental chain owner, and worth a reported $50 million dollars. With that big money, he should be a shoe-in for the Democratic nomination, right? Not so fast. “This will be Alameel’s second run for office in as many cycles. Last cycle, he ran for Congress in the newly-drawn 33rd District and finished fourth out of 11 candidates in the Democratic primary. Alameel received 2,064 votes (10 percent)…[he] actually spent $4,485,086 million in the 2012 race, which comes out to $2,173 per vote.” That almost makes John Connally’s 1980 run for President look like a model of model of prudent campaign financing…
  • Michael Fjetland: Ran as a Republican in the primary against Tom Delay in 2006. Proclaims “I am the ‘Anti-Cruz’” in an all-capital letters font. (Pro-tip: When you use ALL CAPS more often than Time Cube Guy, you’re doing it wrong…)
  • HyeTae “Harry” Kim: Odessa physician. Sorry, that’s all I’ve got for you.
  • Lakesha Rogers: The LaRouche Candidate.
  • Maxey Scheer: El Paso attorney who’s also running as the anti-Cruz candidate, complete with towing a crashed-car prop behind her to protest Cornyn’s “Cruz Control.” (Get it? Get? Cruz control? It’s a concrete metaphor and a pun! Get it? Get it? Wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more!) Given the Statesman‘s polite attention, I’m going to guess she’s the designated “Democratic faithful” candidate if Alameel’s wealth can’t get him across the finish line, though her gas costs may prove prohibitive. Also seems intensely race-conscious.
  • Rep. Steve Stockman Files to Primary John Cornyn for Senate

    Monday, December 9th, 2013

    “Rep. Steve Stockman (R-Texas) is challenging Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), the No. 2-ranking GOP senator, in next year’s Republican primary.”

    I’m about to go to sleep, you insightful analysis will have to wait until tomorrow. Cornyn is certainly vulnerable, and Stockman is a serious challenger, but he may have waited to long to overcome Cornyn’s fundraising advantage.

    This should also put a chill through every sitting Republican thinking of straying into RINO-Land on illegal alien amnesty, ObamaCare, or shrinking the budget deficit. Stray too far, and the grass roots will coming gunning for you.

    David Barton to Primary Cornyn?

    Thursday, November 7th, 2013

    National Review is reporting that evangelical historian David Barton is considering a primary challenge to John Cornyn?

    Can he take out Cornyn?

    I don’t see it:

  • Barton is well known in evangelical circles, but not outside of them. Despite the endorsements of various Tea Party groups, I don’t see him playing well among fiscal conservative, business conservatives, or libertarian-leaning Republicans, and he can’t win the nomination without significant support from those groups.
  • Despite the media’s love of a good Republican primary fight, Barton has the profile of someone they would enjoy attacking a whole lot more. Imagine them dragging every “fundamentalist Dominionist” panic attack piece out of the closet.
  • Most historians, including many conservatives, have been extremely critical of Barton’s history. Greg Foster at First Things (hardly a hotbed of liberal thought), writes of a Barton piece on Locke that it “contains a number of incidental factual errors that don’t even advance his thesis, indicating that his inability to write reliable history stretches beyond ideological cheerleading and into outright incompetence.”
  • Barton strikes me as a figure that would be divisive among Republicans (much less among regular voters) for all the wrong reasons. He also strikes me as the only name floated as a possible Republican challenger to Cornyn who could actually lose to a Democrat in 2014.

    Update: A day late and a dollar short. Barton announced yesterday he’s not going to run. D’oh!

    Can Anyone Successfully Primary John Cornyn?

    Tuesday, October 1st, 2013

    There’s been a lot of criticism of John Cornyn in Tea Party circles over his failure to back Ted Cruz in procedural votes on the ObamaCare defunding fight. Given that, the muttering over someone primarying Cornyn have grown much louder.

    Can anyone take Cornyn? It’s something of a tall order. He had some $6 million on hand as of the July reporting period, and any potential candidate will have a much latter start than Ted Cruz had when he beat David Dewhurst.

    I queried a few people more tied-in than I, and three names of possible Cornyn challengers came up:

  • U.S. Congressman Louis Gohmert was the most popular choice. Gohmert is a solid conservative, and Mark Levin has even put up a Draft Congressman Gohmert for U.S. Senate page on Facebook. The drawback is that Gohmert isn’t wealthy enough to self-fund, and his East Texas district puts him far away from the Houston and Metroplex fundraising pools that would be necessary to fund a statewide campaign.
  • U.S. Congressman Michael McCaul was a very close second. McCaul is widely considered to be “conservative enough” (and has an ACU rating of 91%) and with a personal fortune estimated to be around $300 million (his wife is the daughter of the founder of Clear Channel), he could clearly self-fund. McCaul was considering a Senate run in 2012, but ultimately opted against it.
  • Texas Supreme Court Justice Don Willet has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, and he’s well-respected among conservatives. But stepping from the Texas Supreme Court to the U.S. Senate is a tall order (Cornyn did it via a stint as Texas Attorney General), and Willet has joked about not being rich, so self-funding is probably out for him as well.
  • (Unmentioned by anyone, but someone who’s family connections would bring instant media coverage: George P. Bush. But name recognition and family connections only take you so far. Bush would go from an overwhelming favorite for Land Commissioner to a distinct underdog in a Senate race, plus there’s no guarantee he would be any more conservative than Cornyn. And Tea Party opinion of the Bush Dynasty is not exactly one of, shall we say, unrestrained affection.)

    It’s going to be a tall order to take out a sitting U.S. Senator, barring scandal or even more deviation from conservative principles. But of those mentioned, McCaul probably has the best shot to beat Cornyn.

    Whip Count: Texas Congressional Delegation on Syria

    Friday, September 6th, 2013

    It’s taking a while to get back up to speed after Worldcon, but here’s a little content to prove I’m not dead (just dead tired). And it’s proven a moving target that took longer to put together than I expected

    The Hill has an an ongoing whip count on those who oppose or support a strike against Syria. Huffington Post has another count. This is shaping up to be a case of actual Americans on both the left and right opposing Obama’s Big Adventure, while the Permanent Party of Washington Insiders is supporting it.

    Texas Congressmen On Record Opposing A Strike On Syria

    (if no link from their name, they’re on the Hill or Huff Puff lists)
    Republicans

  • Sen. Ted Cruz
  • Rep. Joe Barton
  • Rep. Kevin Brady
  • Rep. Michael C. Burgess
  • Rep. Mike Conaway
  • Rep. John Culberson
  • Rep. Blake Farenthold
  • Rep. Bill Flores
  • Rep. Louis Gohmert
  • Ralph M. Hall
  • Rep. Sam Johnson
  • Rep. Kenny Marchant
  • Rep. Michael McCaul
  • Rep. Randy Neugebauer
  • Rep. Ted Poe
  • Rep. Lamar Smith
  • Rep. Mac Thornberry
  • Rep. Roger Williams
  • Rep. Randy Weber
  • Democrats

  • Lloyd Doggett
  • Texas Congressmen On Record Supporting A Strike On Syria

    Republicans
    None.

    Democrats

  • Rep. Joaquín Castro (Huff Puff says neutral, The Hill says leaning yes)
  • Rep. Henry Cueller
  • Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee
  • Rep. Marc A. Veasey
  • Here’s a list of Texas Republican Congressmen who were listed as undecided in the Huff Puff piece, along with contact info:

  • Sen. John Cornyn (Contact form, 202-224-2934, additional office contact locations)
  • Rep. John Carter (Contact form, (202) 225-3864, Round Rock (512) 246-1600, Temple (254) 933-1392)
  • Rep. Jeb Hensarling (Contact form, (202) 225-3484, Athens, (903) 675-8288, Dallas (214) 349-9996)
  • Rep. Kay Granger (Contact form, (202) 225-5071, Fort Worth (817) 338-0909)
  • Rep. Pete Olson (Contact form, (202) 225-5951, Pearland (281) 485-4855, Sugar Land (281) 494-2690)
  • Rep. Pete Sessions (Contact form, (202) 225-2231, Dallas (972) 392-0505)
  • Steve Stockman (Contact form, (202) 225-1555, Cleveland (409) 883-8028 Orange, TX 77630, (409) 883-8075, Pasadena (281-478-2799)
  • Contact information for Texas congressional critters from Dwight’s blog.

    So, for those of you playing along on the home game: Both Ted Cruz and Lloyd Doggett oppose attacking Syria. That’s a pretty broad coalition.

    Today’s the Day to Contact Your Senator Opposing Amnesty

    Monday, June 24th, 2013

    Contact your senators here to tell them you oppose both the Gang of Eight and Corker-Hoeven illegal alien amnesty bills.

    Something like this:

    Dear Sen. Cornyn,

    Not only do I oppose both the Gang of 8 and substitute Corker-Hoeven illegal alien amnesty bills, but I support a filibuster of any “amnesty first” illegal alien legislation, will withhold all financial report support from the national Republican Party committees if it passes, and will support primary challenges to any Republican who votes in favor of it.