Posts Tagged ‘Matt McCall’

Andrew White Concedes Dem Gov Race to Valdez

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2018

Lupe Valdez has won the right to get walloped by Greg Abbott in November:

In Republican races, Chip Roy is winning, Bunni Pounds is losing, and Dan Crenshaw beat Kevin Roberts handily.

More tomorrow.

Texas Primary Runoff Voting Starts Today

Monday, May 14th, 2018

Texas primary runoff voting starts today. The headlining race is on the Democratic gubernatorial runoff, with Lupe Valdez and Andrew White jockeying for a chance to be creamed by Greg Abbott in November, but there are a number of undecided U.S. congressional races/etc., including Chip Roy vs. Matt McCall for the U.S. 21st congressional district and Bunni Pounds vs. Lance Gooden for the 5th. And here in Williamson County we have a runoff for the Place 6 on the 3rd Court of Appeals between Donna Davidson and Mike Toth (favor Toth, who’s been endorsed by Empower Texans).

Quick Impressions: Texas Twenty-First U.S. Congressional District Race

Wednesday, February 28th, 2018

The Twenty-First U.S. Congressional District, the seat held by retiring Republican Lamar Smith, runs from Austin to San Antonio, encompassing much of the western Hill Country. It’s heavily Republican and largely white, though with a significant Hispanic population.

There are no fewer than 13 Republicans candidates for this seat, including a former U.S. Representatives, Ted Cruz’s former chief-of-staff, a State Rep, two previous candidates, and not one but two candidates who are ex-CIA. Also worth noting: The candidate who has the raised the most money so far is a Democrat.

Republican

  • Ivan A. Andarza: Austin lawyer and a former or current member of several state boards. That suggests and ability to self-fund that might get him into the runoff…in another race. But I don’t see him making headway in this packed race.
  • Eric Burkhart: Has an interesting history as an ex-CIA agent. But I can’t tell his current job, and thus don’t see an ability to self-fund.
  • Former U.S. Congressman Francisco “Quico” Canseco: Unseated Ciro Rodriguez for the U.S. 23rd congressional district in the Republican wave year of 2010, and who was unseated in turn in 2012 by Pete Gallego in 2012. (Disclaimer: I donated money to Canseco in 2010, because I perceived (correctly) that he had a good chance to knock off a Democratic incumbent.) However, Canseco’s fundraising doesn’t even show up in the latest report, suggesting he’ll struggle mightily to make the runoff, name recognition or not.
  • Mauro Garza: Former Director of Grants and Contracts at the Southwest Foundation for Biomedical Research. Nothing about his profile or website suggests he’ll be a serious contender.
  • Foster Hagen: Has a barely-used Facebook page, and his website is missing. So I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest he’s not going to be a factor…
  • Texas State Rep. Jason Isaac: Normally being a State Rep at least gives you a good shot to get into the runoff, but probably not here. He’s got some good endorsements (including Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian), but nothing the level of Chip Roy’s endorsements. Has raised $203,050, third among Republicans. A chance to make the runoffs, but it appears to be an uphill struggle right now.
  • Ryan Krause: Not seeing any indication he’ll be a competitive candidate.
  • Matt McCall: Already run twice for this seat and got clobbered by Lamar Smith both times. Has raised $168,606, which is not trivial, but I don’t think the third time is the charm for him.
  • Susan Narvaiz: Formerly lost to Lloyd Doggett in the U.S. District 35 race. Lagging in fundraising, I don’t see her making any headway in this race.
  • William Negley: Another former CIA member, a former member of Kay Baily Hurtchison’s staff, and backed by deep-pocketed businessman Red McCombs, which explains how Negley raked in $307,127, second only to Chip Roy. A serious contender to make the runoff with Chip Roy.
  • Al Poteet: A veteran and former CEO of Humana Veterans Healthcare Service. Nice hat, but he’s at the very bottom of fundraising for the race.
  • Autry Pruitt is a black media commentator. Maybe he’s flown below my radar, but seeing that his fundraising doesn’t even register, probably not.
  • Chip Roy: Ted Cruz’s former chief of staff, who has been endorsed by both Cruz and Rick Perry, has raised $372,574 (the most of any Republican candidate), and the odds-on favorite in the race. It’s possibly that he wins without a runoff, but with so many candidates in the race that seems unlikely.
  • Jenifer Sarver: Former Kay Bailey Hutchison staffer who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Enough said…
  • Robert Stovall: Chairman of the Republican Party for Bexar County. Not enough money raised to compete with the heavyweights here.
  • Samuel Temple. Pro-illegal alien Republican who promises to be “data driven.” Someone needs to tell him that Technocracy peaked in the 1930s…
  • Peggy Wardlaw: Want to do YouTube videos of your positions in addition to stating them on your website? Fine. Want to do YouTube videos of your positions instead of stating positions on your website? Not fine.
  • Anthony White: Former Marine Colonel. I couldn’t find a webpage, but his Twitter feed has 24 followers…
  • Democrats

  • Derrick Crowe: Former Nancy Pelosi staffer. Has a bunch of endorsements. Has raised $119,392, or less than one-sixth what Joseph Kopser has. A solid chance to make the runoff, but it may be hard for him to overcome Kopser’s fundraising muscle.
  • Joseph Kopser: At $772,335, he’s raised twice as much as anyone in the race, Republican or Democrat. (Notable donors include game designer Richard Garriott, plus lots of lawyers and CEOs in New York, San Antonio, New York City and Washington, D.C. “Kopser is a U.S. Army veteran and has worked in private industry. Leading up to the 2018 primary election, he was serving as president of the advisory and analytics firm Grayline as well as a member of the Defense Council of the Truman National Security Project. His other professional experience includes serving as the director of Texas Lyceum, a member of the board of directors of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce, and the chairman and co-founder of Bunker Labs Austin. Kopser’s military experience includes serving as the department chair and professor of leadership and strategy at Texas Army ROTC and as the special assistant to the Army chief of staff. Kopser spent several years deployed in Iraq. He graduated from Harvard University with his M.P.A. and from the United States Military Academy at West Point with his bachelor’s in aerospace engineering.”
  • Elliott McFadden: He may have only raised 1/7th what Kopser has, but he’s been endorsed by The Daily Texan and The Austin Chronicle! Yeah, he’s toast.
  • Mary Wilson: Her about page talks about her love of math. Thanks for playing!
  • Kopser probably has better chance than Roy of avoiding a runoff, just based on the sheer size of the Republican field. Otherwise, expect a Roy/Negley runoff among Republicans, and Kopser/Crowe runoff for Democrats.

    Failing to Show Up in Texas U.S. House Races

    Thursday, December 17th, 2015

    The filing deadline has passed for 2016 races in Texas, and once again several U.S. House seats will go uncontested.

    The first step to winning a race is showing up for one. Even token candidates force the opposition to expend time and attention on races they could use elsewhere. And having a candidate in the race helps you win during improbable circumstances (indictments, scandals, wave elections).

    As usual, Democrats passed up more races than Republicans, but Republicans seemed to pass on a higher number of races as well.

    Races Democrats Failed To Field a Challenger

    Here are the races Democrats failed to show up in, and the current Republican incumbent:

  • 4th Congressional District (John Ratcliffe, who drew two Republican primary opponents)
  • 5th Congressional District (Jeb Hensarling)
  • 8th Congressional District (Kevin Brady, who drew two Republican primary opponents)
  • 11th Congressional District (Mike Conaway)
  • 13th Congressional District (Mac Thornberry)
  • 19th Congressional District (No incumbent, as Randy Neugebauer is retiring; five Republicans will be vying to take his place)
  • 32nd Congressional District (Pete Sessions, who drew two Republican primary opponents)
  • 36th Congressional District (Brian Babin)
  • With Democrats not contesting eight districts, it allows Republicans to shift time and effort into defending incumbents in more marginal districts (such as Will Hurd in the perpetual battleground 23rd).

    Races Republicans Failed To Field a Challenger

    Here are the races Republicans failed to show up in, and the current Democratic incumbent:

  • 9th Congressional District (Al Green)
  • 16th Congressional District (Beto O’Rourke, a white Democratic incumbent in a heavily Hispanic district whose drawn a Hispanic Democratic primary opponent, albeit one he already defeated four years ago)
  • 20th Congressional District (Joaquin Castro)
  • On Republican missed opportunities, Joaquin Castro is the sort of rising star you want to force to defend his home territory, rather than go off gallivanting at the national level.

    A few other points of interest:

  • Sheila Jackson Lee drew no less than four Republican opponents in District 18.
  • District 15, where Democratic incumbent Ruben Hinojosa Sr. is retiring, has seven Democrats (including Ruben Ramirez Hinojosa) and two Republicans vying for the seat.
  • Matt McCall (and two other Republican challengers) are gunning for Lamar Smith in District 21 again.
  • LinkSwarm for November 6, 2015

    Friday, November 6th, 2015

    Another Friday, another LinkSwarm:

  • What’s Obama’s strategy in Iraq and Syria? He doesn’t have one. “Without a clear overarching strategy to resolve the conflict.” Say what you want about Bush, he wanted to win in Iraq. Obama wants to do just enough to not get blamed for losing.
  • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not wild about George Soros encouraging waves of Islamic refugees in Europe.
  • Speaking of Islamic refugees, shotguns (which don’t need a permit) are selling like hotcakes in Austria. Whatever could be the reason?
  • “The Democratic party is mainly a coalition of interest groups, and the current model of Democratic politics — poor and largely non-white people providing the muscle and rich white liberals calling the shots — is unsustainable…Democrats gleefully predict that demographic changes are going to give their party a permanent majority. The unspoken corollary to that is that white liberals think they’re going to remain in charge of it.”
  • Forget all those Republican obituaries: Democrats are the ones being booted out of office.
  • Victories in Houston and Kentucky were stinging rebukes to cultural war overreach by the left.
  • Ted Cruz, Jedi Debater.
  • Jeb Bush needs an intervention.
  • Pennsylvania’s Democratic Attorney General, facing criminal indictment and calls to resign on all sides, instead send out porny emails.
  • Announce that you’re abandoning your Vegan diet because it was making you sick? That’s a death threat.
  • Owner of bankrupt Atlantic City casino threatens to house thousands of Syrain refugees there.
  • Denmark to Bernie Sanders: Stop calling us socialists, you pinko!
  • Free market economics: It even makes formerly socialist food banks run better!
  • Students entering Yale are evidently ignorant as fark all. (Hat tip: Borepatch.)
  • Dashcam video proves black Texas professor lied about being racially profiled. Hat Tip: Instapundit.)
  • Matt McCall takes another run at Rep. Lamar Smith.
  • I’ll take Least Surprising Sports Headlines for $400, Alex: “Former Raiders first-round pick convicted on three counts of murder.”
  • A Quick Overview of Primary Results

    Wednesday, March 5th, 2014

    A very brief look at last night’s primary results:

  • John Cornyn won, but couldn’t break 60% against a field of underfunded challengers.
  • The Democratic Senate runoff is going to be between the big-spender David Alameel and the LaRouche candidate Kesha Rogers.
  • As expected, both Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis won their gubernatorial primaries. But Abbott garnered 91% and over 1.2 million votes, the most of any candidate for any office. By contrast, Davis got 432,000 votes and won 79% of the vote against underfunded challenger Ray Madrigal, indicating a distinct enthusiasm gap despite Davis’ nationwide MSM cheer-leading corps.
  • Dan Patrick’s early lead over incumbent David Dewhurst in the Lt. Governor’s race held up. Patrick pulled in 550,742 votes for 41.5% of the vote, while Dewhurst got 376,164 votes for 28.3%. Maybe Dewhurst can carpet-bomb the runoff with money, but that’s an awful big gap to make up. We knew that Dewhurst losing to Cruz in 2012 hurt him; now we know how much.
  • Ken Paxton takes the lead into the runoff with 566,080 votes over Dan Branch’s 426,561.
  • Glenn Hegar is hovering right at the threshold of beating Harvey Hildebran outright in the Comptroller race.
  • George P. Bush garnered 934,501 to win the Land Commissioner primary…or over twice as many votes as Wendy Davis.
  • Sid Miller (410,273) and Tommy Merritt (248,568) are heading for a runoff for Agricultural Commissioner, leaving Joe Straus ally Eric Opiela out in the cold.
  • All the Ted Cruz-endorsed Supreme Court incumbents won their races.
  • Super-tight runoff in U.S. House District 23 between Francisco “Quico” Canseco and Will Hurd to face Democratic incumbent Pete Gallego. Canseco held the seat before Gallego, and whoever wins the runoff has a good chance of taking the swing seat back.
  • Katrina Pierson was unable to unseat Pete Sessions in U.S. House District 32, garnering 36.4% of the vote. As I feared, Sarah Palin’s endorsement came to late to truly capitalize on it in fundraising.
  • Matt McCall did even better, where he and another challenger kept Lamar Smith at 60.4% in U.S. House District 21. Though they won their primaries, Sessions and Smith might be vulnerable to further challenges in 2016.
  • As far as I can tell, every U.S. or statewide incumbent Republican either won or is leading their race. Except David Dewhurst.