Posts Tagged ‘Michael Williams’

Texas Senate Race Updates for June 12, 2011

Sunday, June 12th, 2011

Another roundup of Texas Senate race news:

  • Here is the video for the Republican Senatorial candidate forum I attended Wednesday:

  • And here’s the follow-up Q&A session they’re not showing on KRLU:

  • Here’s the Statesmen‘s report on the forum.
  • And here’s a report on the Forum from Miss Lizaface, a blogger I am unfamiliar with (linked from Texas Iconoclast).
  • The Fort Worth Star-Telegram‘s J. R. Labbe is shocked, shocked that all the contenders for the Republican Senate nomination at the forum sounded like Republicans rather than those “courageous” tax-hikers the liberal media is always carrying water for.
  • You have to admire the pithy concision of this line: “State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, would be hard to beat in a bid for U.S. Senate, according to a poll released today by state Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston.” Iconoclast is unimpressed. “Pretty much everyone I talk to scoffed at the numbers regardless of who they work for or whether they like Patrick.”
  • Ted Cruz’s campaign recruits Liberty Institute President Kelly Shackelford and former Attorney General Ed Meese as Chairmen of Cruz’s statewide and nationwide Leadership teams, respectively.
  • Hotline on Call suggests that if Perry entered the Presidential race, it would benefit Tom Leppert most by tying down David Dewhurst and uniting moderate Republicans behind his campaign. I find their logic unpersuasive. In Texas, moderate Republicans have shown a strong ability to write checks, but not much luck in defeating high-profile, well-funded conservatives. If they were able to do that, Kay Bailey Hutchison would be governor right now…
  • Democratic longshot Sean Hubbard makes his pitch to the Daily Kossacks on why they should support him over Ricardo Sanchez. Honestly, it’s pretty weak sauce, full of generic “I’ll be a good Senator and listen to my constituents” stuff. He also put up this missive to the Kossacks, which has more liberal talking points of the sort that will please that crowd. But it’s woefully short of what he has to do to even get on the radar. As an underfunded longshot, he pretty much has to be attacking Sanchez every single day from the left if he wants to gain even the tiniest bit of traction in the race. No one beyond hardcore political junkies have even heard of him or realize he’s running at this point. If he can’t change that he’s going to continue being Mr. Irrelevant, despite the fact that Sanchez could very well be vulnerable to a serious challenger on his left flank.
  • Here’s a piece on Senate candidates attending Tea Party events.
  • I’m linking to this piece mainly to mock it, as it looks like the text in the link above has been automatically translated into another language, and then back into English, and then posted without any editing. “Hе accepted thе credentials οf thе forums wіƖƖ contrariety depending οn thе hosting organization, bυt generally any claimant wіƖƖ margin qυеѕtіοnѕ frοm a regressive row acted bу attendees аnԁ thе panelists themselves. Each forum іѕ approaching tο final аbουt dual hours.” Even by the standards of content-scrapping linkbait zombie sites this is peculiar…
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones interviewed in The Jarrell Star Ledger. I’m just happy Jarrell has a newspaper, given the tragic affinity tornadoes have for the place…
  • Finally, one bit of non-news: We’ve been hearing for over a week that Michael Williams was getting out of the Senate race to run for the newly created Texas 33rd Congressional District, an idea buoyed by his absence from the candidate forum on Wednesday. However, Williams has not publicly confirmed or denied the information on either his website, his Facebook account, or his Twitter feed. I can understand weighing your options, but this complete silence on the issue after you’ve already sent out a fundraising solicitation for the congressional race seems a bit odd…
  • Michael Williams to Drop Out of Senate Race to Run for Newly Created 33rd Congressional District

    Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

    So the Texas Tribune is reporting, backed up by an email from the Williams for Congress campaign, and confirming the piece they published last week.

    Texas Senate Race Updates for June 2, 2011: Michael Williams to Drop Out?

    Thursday, June 2nd, 2011

    Some updates in the Texas Senate Race, including one big shakeup if it pans out:

  • The Texas Tribune is reporting that Michael Williams will drop out of the Senate Race to run for a newly created congressional seat in House District 33. Given the strong fundraising advantage Ted Cruz has held over him, this might be a good move on Williams’ part.
  • Speaking of Williams, he’s posted his own tax return.
  • Ted Cruz wins endorsement from Dick Armey’s Freedomworks.
  • He also picked up an endorsement from the Club for Growth. (Hat tip: The Race to Replace KBH.)
  • From Rollcall comes this Tom Leppert news: “With $2.6 million in the bank at the end of March, he has hired Mike Slanker as general consultant, Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies as pollster, Scott Howell for media and Majority Strategies for direct mail.”
  • Speaking of Leppert, here’s an interview with him from February 11, 2010, and another one the Texas Tribune did with him back on October 29, 2010.
  • And speaking of the Texas Tribune (they’re all over this update), there will be a debate among all the major declared Republican candidates on Wednesday, June 8th, at KLRU studios in Austin. RSVP on that page if you want to attend.
  • Texas Senate Race Updates for May 27, 2011

    Friday, May 27th, 2011

    It being the Friday of a long weekend, I doubt terribly many people are going to be reading this, but there have been some significant Texas Senate race developments:

  • Houston State Senator (and former sports caster) Dan Patrick is considering running for the Senate seat currently held by Kay Baily Hutchison. He was rumored to be considering a run back when Hutchison announced her retirement in January, but he’s been mum on the issue during most of the current Texas legislative session. He announced that he was forming an exploratory committee on Laura Ingraham’s talk radio show this morning. As anyone who reads this blog knows, he’s joining a crowded field, but he does fill the niche as a full-bore cultural Christian conservative that none of the other declared candidates (save longshot Glenn Addison) really fill. With Ted Cruz and Tom Leppert already off to significant head starts, Patrick will have to do some serious fundraising if he wants to be competitive. Patrick might benefit from some confusion with the other sportscasting Dan Patrick. Many Houston TV viewers remember Patrick as a sportscaster from the “Luv Ya Blu” era Houston Oilers era of the late 1970s and early 1980s. (I have vague memories of Dan Patrick being thrown out a door during a dust-up with then Oilers quarterback Dan Pastorini, but I may be misremembering one or both of the people involved.[2014 Update: Actually, I talked to Dan Patrick, and while he watched it happen, it wasn’t him, but rather Houston Post reporter Dale Robertson, who Pastorini threw out.]
  • Speaking of Addison, he’s complaining that The Texas Tribune is excluding him from an upcoming debate. Actually, I can see both sides on this issue. Certainly The Texas Tribune, as a private organization, can use any criteria they want to determine who a “serious” candidate is, and the one they chose (someone had to have raised at least $100,000 by March 31) is both objective and defensible. Plus the more crowded any debate, the less time potential voters have to assess any one candidate. On the other hand, the idea that fundraising should be the only gating factor in determining electability is entirely too reductive for a robust democratic process. My suggestion? Have the political equivalent of a “play in” game. Reserve one spot for a declared candidate who does not meet the $100,000 threshold criteria (Addison, Lela Pittinger, Andrew Castanuela, or Sean Hubbard) and then let people vote online for who to include. That would give the longshots a chance to be seen, and add interest to the proceedings…
  • Michael Williams recently traveled to Washington, D.C. to raise money for his campaign.
  • Williams also appeared to answer questions from the NE Tarrant Tea Party. Pssst, NETarrantTeaParty1: It’s called a “tripod.” Invest in one.
  • Ted Cruz wins a straw poll of Houston Republican women. However, he gets dinged by The Race to Replace KBH for an ad misrepresenting that straw poll win as an endorsement (Republican Women’s Clubs bylaws forbid endorsing primary candidates). The ad was corrected shortly thereafter.
  • Speaking of Cruz, he got some serious love from Terry Jeffrey over at The Heritage Foundation’s Townhall.
  • Roger Williams appears on the Matt Lewis show. Williams comes on just after eight minutes in.
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones slams the Obama administration for their energy policy. “The demand for oil is not going away just because some bureaucrats have the ill-conceived or ill-informed idea that all our energy needs can be met by green energy.” I still don’t think Jones has a real chance in the race, but she seems strongest when talking about oil and gas issues. Maybe it’s a good thing that she hasn’t resigned from the Railroad Commission…
  • She also gets profiled in the Round Rock Leader.
  • LinkSwarm for May 17, 2011

    Tuesday, May 17th, 2011
  • Conceding defeat graciously, Wisconsin Democrat style: “Please put your things in order because you will be killed and your families will also be killed due to your actions in the last 8 weeks.”
  • The Madison Project endorses Ted Cruz. “All things being equal between Ted Cruz and Michael Williams, we have chosen to endorse Ted Cruz for his ability to raise the kind of money it takes to win a primary like the one in Texas.”
  • What if the federal budget was a single family’s budget?
  • Rick Perry considering a Presidential run?
  • LinkSwarm for Friday, May 6, 2011: Immigration, the NYT, and Tom Leppert’s SEIU Ties

    Friday, May 6th, 2011

    A small LinkSwarm for a lazy Friday:

  • Mickey Kaus: “Why do these Democrats tell pollsters that immigrants are a burden because they ‘take our jobs’? Maybe because they do. Just a thought.”
  • The New York Times gets the Texas Senate Race, well, not quite right. “So far, only Republicans have declared in the Senate race.” False. Political neophyte Sean Hubbard has declared for the Democratic nomination, and has been filing his campaign financing reports with the FEC. “At least seven Republicans are vying for the seat being vacated by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison.” Technically true but incomplete; there are five declared major candidates (Ted Cruz, Tom Leppert, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, and Elizabeth Ames Jones), three declared longshot candidates (Glenn Addison, Andrew Castanuela, and Lela Pettinger), one withdrawn candidate who filed her wind-down report with the FEC (Florence Shapiro) and one undeclared potential frontrunner (David Dewhurst). Saying “At least seven” makes me wonder exactly who you’re counting…
  • The Race to Replace KBH on Senate candidate Twitter antagonists. “Big fleas have little fleas upon their backs to bite them/And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so on ad infinitum…”
  • From the same source we also learn that Leppert asked for, and received, the endorsement of the far-left SEIU.
  • More on Leppert’s SEIU support from the horse-mouth, SEIU Texas political coordinator Shannon Perez in the lefty Dallas Observer:

    “The Republican primary voters of the state of Texas need to know the truth about Tom Leppert.
    When he first ran for Mayor, as a moderate and a supporter of working men and women, he was pro-SEIU, pro-public employees organizing, pro-collective bargaining.
    So committed to these ideals was Tom, that he vigorously pursued SEIU’s endorsement.
    So committed to these ideals was Tom, that he came to our union organizing launch in the Water Department — encouraging folks to join SEIU. So committed to these ideals was Tom, he frequently threw on an SEIU T-shirt and came to our union hall…Tom even signed an SEIU membership card!

    Tom, Tom, Tom, it makes it hard to take your Second-Coming-of-Ronald-Reagan rhetoric seriously when stuff like this keeps tumbling out of your closet. Is it too late for you to switch to the Democratic Primary? You’ve already got a huge lead over Sean Hubbard…

  • More Texas Senate Race Fundraising Nuggets and Race Tidbits

    Thursday, May 5th, 2011

    Though the aggregate FEC totals have been up for a little while, the FEC has finally put up the lists of individual contributors to examine.

  • Ted Cruz: The first thing that jumped out at me from Cruz’s contributors was the number of times “Crow” and “Crow Holdings” appears. For those unfamiliar with him, the late Trammell Crow (he died in 2009) was a self-made Dallas construction and real estate billionaire. Having such deep-pocketed backers in Tom Leppert’s backyard is a good sign of his ability to wage a serious, well-funded campaign statewide. He also got out-of-state funding from Chad & Julia Sweet, a Washington, D.C. power couple whose marriage was important enough to make the style section of The New York Times.
  • Tom Leppert: Far and away the biggest name on this list (at least for football fans) is former Dallas Cowboys Hall-of-Fame quarterback Roger Staubach, as well as his wife and two officers of The Staubach Company, the very successful real estate business he founded after retiring from football. Staubach was previously a supporter of State Senator Florence Shaprio’s abortive run, and was himself frequently rumored as a possible GOP candidate back in the 1980s. As the Cruz campaign noted, Leppert’s donations are overwhelmingly from the Dallas area.
  • Michael Williams: Lots of oil and gas money from around the state (which you would hope for from someone on the Texas Railroad Commission). Not as much out-of-state money as Cruz, but some, such as Patton Boggs partner Daniel Addison.
  • Roger Williams: Almost all in-state contributions (nothing wrong with that, if you have enough of them), an awful lot from Ft. Worth, including chain restaurateur Bobby Cox. Though Bush41 has endorsed him, he hasn’t contributed to the Roger Williams campaign.
  • Elzabeth Ames Jones: Mostly from San Antonio, some oil and gas money. The only thing that jumps out at me is she got a $1,000 from a bookstore owner, as it’s amazing to think that someone who owns a bookstore actually had $1,000 to give a candidate. (“How do you make a small fortune owning a bookstore? Start with a large fortune.”)
  • And on the Democratic side, Sean Hubbard (still the only declared Democratic candidate) has, uh, five contributors other than himself. Including what seems to be a husband and wife. And someone else with the last name “Hubbard.”

    In other Senate race news:

  • North Texas Tea Party member Jim Bright ranks the Senate candidates from best to worst. Best: Ted Cruz and Michael Williams: “Both delivered an excellent message.” Worst: Elizabeth Ames Jones (“has the right ideas, but terrifyingly short on specifics, weak on delivery, and long on platitudes. It was a very banal speech.”) and longshot Lela Pittenger (“doesn’t seem to really grasp what we are up against. She doesn’t understand and has no concept of the fight we are in politically.”)
  • According to the Southern Political Report, “Former Comptroller John Sharp, who had previously said he would run for the seat, cancelled [sic] his FEC-authorized fundraising committee in February.” I guess I’ll have to stop dinging him, though he should probably take down his Facebook page.
  • The Race to Replace Kay Baily Hutchison (yes, a blog specifically about the race) says that Tom Leppert is a flip-flopper. He makes much of Leppert’s freindly relations with the gay community, which, to my libertarian-leaning mind, is pretty thin gruel. I’d like to know more about Leppert’s tax hikes and political donations (among other topics).
  • Michael Williams slams Obama for favoring lizards over Texas jobs.
  • All the candidates issued “we’re glad Osama is toast” statements, but I think the best was actually Roger Williams. I think it’s also the only one that mentions radical Islam.
  • Proof that blogging about things you’re not a domain expert in can come back to bite you. Here’s a roundup of Texas 2012 races posted May 4; judging by the author’s description, he hasn’t followed the race for the last two months, since he has John Sharp still in it, and omits Ted Cruz, who has as good a claim as anyone to being the front-runner.
  • The Ted Cruz Campaign On His Fundraising Quarter

    Thursday, May 5th, 2011

    This press release from the Ted Cruz campaign (penned by J2Strategies consultant Jason Johnson) on those Q1 Texas Senate Race fundraising totals makes interesting reading. The classic lawyer advice is “If the facts are on your side, pound the facts.” And since the facts seems very much on Cruz’s side, Johnson pounds them relentlessly and effectively. It’s not that the document is free of spin (it is, after all, a campaign press release), but that the spin which is there is made far more effective by the remorseless logic of the underlying numbers presented and the understated (indeed, respectful) nature of the comparisons made with Cruz’s opponent’s.

    A few high-points, taken straight from the press release:

  • “Cruz raised more than $1 million in 10 weeks, for an average of over $100,000 a week. The campaign received more than 1,100 contributions from over 900 unique individuals in 122 Texas cities and 37 States”
  • “The Cruz campaign raised $1,012,885 and has $965,153 cash on hand.”
  • “Almost all the money [Tom] Leppert raised is from the City of Dallas — a remarkable 78%.”
  • “[Elizabeth Ames] Jones experienced a very challenging fundraising quarter. It is hard to formulate a scenario wherein Jones is able to compete statewide.”
  • The press release takes particular aim at Michael Williams and Tom Leppert, perceiving (correctly, I think) that they are Cruz’s most serious rivals among declared candidates:

    Cruz vs. Michael Williams
    Michael Williams is the only candidate who is seriously attempting to contest Ted for the support of (1) conservative leaders, (2) grassroots activists, and (3) Tea Party leaders. But Michael Williams failed to raise sufficient funds to be able to compete in a statewide primary, especially against multiple candidates who have the ability to self-finance.

  • In Q1: Cruz out-raised Michael Williams by a ratio of 2.5:1. $1,012,885 to $414,119
  • In Q1: Cruz’s cash on hand is nearly four times Michael Williams’s cash on hand. $895,153 to $237,210 (less current debts)
  • In Q1: Cruz received over three times the contributions as Michael Williams (3.3:1.). Cruz: 1,147 Contributions; Michael Williams: 343 Contributions.
  • In Q1: Cruz received donations from 122 Texas cities, compared to Michael Williams’s 70.
  • In Q1: Cruz received donations from 37 States, compared to Michael Williams’s 16.
  • On Facebook, Cruz has 57,293 supporters, compared to Michael Williams’s 7,896
  • The summary points make further comparisons with Michael Williams:

  • In the “sub-primary” to determine the strongest conservative candidate in the race, Cruz is in by far the strongest position. Indeed, numerous national conservative commentators and grassroots leaders publicly (1) expressed concern that Michael Williams could not raise enough funds to run a credible statewide campaign against a deep-pocketed self-funder, and (2) stated that they would choose between Cruz and Michael Williams based in significant part on who could raise the most money to run a strong conservative campaign. Nevertheless, Michael Williams was only able to raise just over $400,000, and in Q1 Cruz raised 2 1/2 times as much.
  • In order to mount a credible statewide campaign in the Republican Primary, a candidate will need at least $5,000,000 to $10,000,000 to communicate with voters from January 2012 through Election Day. Michael Williams is not on a path to raise those funds.
  • To be sure, a candidate with significant name identification among primary voters could conceivably compete with less than $10,000,000. However, multiple statewide polls have demonstrated that none of the current candidates has substantial name ID. Indeed, despite Michael Williams’s having served in a down-ballot elected position for many years, he and Cruz are statistically tied in statewide name ID. With the exception of Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, voters simply do not know any of the candidates, and it will take serious financial resources to change that in a state as large as Texas.
  • In addition to dinging Leppert for his narrow fundraising base, in this press release we also see the beginnings of the “Tom Leppert is a RINO” attack I’ve been anticipating ever since the Dallas Mayor threw his hat into the ring:

    Politically, Leppert’s record as Mayor of Dallas is demonstrably out of step with the values of the Texas primary voters. Indeed, it is difficult to see a credible path for a moderate-to-liberal Mayor of Dallas to win a statewide Republican primary in Texas.

    I’ve been communicating with the Cruz campaign, and recently sent off some questions for the candidate, and hope to put up his answers in the near future.

    Ten months out from the primary, there’s still a lot of race left. Michael Williams has time to right his ship, David Dewhurst has time to decide whether to get in or stay out, and events can undermine even the best-run campaign. But at this point Cruz and Leppert have to be considered the front-runners.

    Texas 2012 Senate Race Update: Final Q1 Fundraising Reports

    Wednesday, April 27th, 2011

    The FEC finally has fundraising totals for all the major declared candidates in the 2012 Texas Senate race. Ranked from most to least, they are:

    1. Tom Leppert: Raised $2,690,081 (including a $1,600,000 loan) and still has $2,592,219 on hand
    2. Ted Cruz: Raised $1,013,060 (including a $70,000 loan) and has $965,153 on hand
    3. Roger Williams: Raised $598,470 (including a $250,000 loan) and has $1,250,300 on hand
    4. Michael Williams: Raised $418,619 (including $132,160 in loans) and has $369,369 on hand
    5. Elizabeth Ames Jones: Raised $122,185 and has $128,541 on hand

    Despite later starts than their opponents, Leppert and Cruz are clearly setting the pace here. Both seem to be raising money and campaigning hard, and Cruz has generated a significant swell of grass-roots enthusiasm. If they can keep this up, both will be serious contenders to make the runoff in March, with or without Lt. Governor David Dewhurst entering the race.

    Roger Williams has raised enough to stay in the game, but despite the endorsement of former President George H. W. Bush (a legendary rainmaker with a well-oiled fundraising machine), there’s no sign that the Bush dynasty has put the full force of their fundraising prowess behind him. He’ll need to knock out Leppert (or Dewhurst, if he runs) to make the runoff, and so far he shows no signs of doing it.

    Michael Williams has also raised enough to stay in the game, and probably has grassroots enthusiasm second only to Cruz, but he needs to pick up the pace if he wants to remain competitive. The current pace isn’t going to get it done, and he can’t make the runoff unless Cruz slips.

    Ever since I posted on Elizabeth Ames Jones’ paltry fundraising efforts, I’ve been trying to figure out a reason for her to stay in the race. I haven’t come up with one. If there’s any significant enthusiasm for her campaign out among Texas Republicans, it takes more sensitive scientific instruments than I possess to measure. I don’t see her candidacy filling any sort of ideological void, and the sort of people who would vote for her solely based on her sex are not the same people who vote in a Republican primary. While there’s a lot of time left in the campaign, unless she can figure out how to make some serious noise (say, launching a series of non-stop attacks on Leppert for being a secret RINO) she should probably get out of the race.

    A few other fundraising tidbits gleaned from the FEC reports:

  • Sean Hubbard, thus far the only declared Democratic candidate, raised $6,511.
  • Among the longshots, Andrew Castanuela ($262) and Lela Pettinger ($150) are hardly setting the world on fire, but Magnolia funeral home-owner Glenn Addison (who’s running on a social conservative platform) managed to pull in $20,432 (even if $6,877 was in loans), or about one sixth what Jones, a statewide office holder who has been running for about a year, pulled in over the same period of time. For someone with no real chance of winning the nomination, that’s pretty impressive. Mr. Addison won’t be the next U.S. Senator from Texas, but he might do very well in a local race should he choose to run for one in 2014.
  • Texas 2012 Senate Race Update: Elizabeth Ames Jones Pulls In Paltry $122,185

    Thursday, April 21st, 2011

    FEC Reports for the Texas Senate Race continue to be posted for the fundraising period of January 1—March 31. (Indeed, they’re being posted so slowly that I wonder if a single arthritic temp is doing all the data entry.) The reports of Ted Cruz (over $1 million announced) and Michael Williams (over half a million announced) are not up yet, Tom Leppert’s $2,690,081 ($1.6 million of which was Leppert’s personal loan to his own campaign) was already announced, and Roger Williams raised $598,470.

    But Elizabeth Ames Jones’ report is finally up, and it’s disastrous: $122,185. Raising less than one-quarter what the other major declared candidates have in the same period of time isn’t going to get the job done. Moreover, it’s a major step back from her previous 2010 fundraising total of $989,765.

    Jones already had the most difficult path to victory of the major declared candidates, a path some were already saying was non-existent. Ted Cruz and Michael Williams were battling in the Tea Party Primary for the movement conservative vote, while Tom Leppert and Roger Williams are competing for the “who gets the establishment nod if David Dewhurst skips the race” slot. Jones, on the other hand, has, what? Unless she can magically pick up a disproportionate share of the woman’s vote (which seems doubtful), it’s impossible to see how she remains competitive when she’s been so heavily outgunned in the fundraising arms race. I’m far from an insider, but as far as I can tell, the groundswell for a Jones candidacy has been all but non-existent.

    There’s a long way yet to go before the primary, but unless Jones can, at a minimum, quadruple her fundraising totals in the second quarter, she’s toast. She made be toast already.