Posts Tagged ‘runoff’

Final PPP Poll Has Cruz Up by 10 Points

Monday, July 30th, 2012

“PPP’s final poll of the Republican Senate runoff in Texas finds Ted Cruz opening up a 52-42 lead, an increase from our survey two weeks ago that found him ahead 49-44.”

Further:

Cruz’s victory is driven by 4 things: the Tea Party, the enthusiasm of his supporters, a generational divide within the Texas Republican ranks, and the lack of regard the party base currently holds for Rick Perry.

The first three I believe; the fourth I have been resistant to, both because I thought Perry was the least flawed of the Republican Presidential candidates before he self-destructed in the debates, and because it fits far too neatly into the liberal media’s hatred of Perry and desire to see him fail. However, looking at the events of the last few months, I must admit that the possibility even Texas Republicans have soured on Perry does, in fact, fit the facts. (And several candidates that Perry endorsed in close, down-ballot races lost.)

More:

Cruz is ahead by a whooping 75-22 margin with Tea Party voters, more than making up for a 56-39 deficit to Dewhurst with voters who don’t consider themselves members of that movement. There has been too much of a tendency to ascribe any Republican primary upset over the last few years to Tea Party voters, but this is one case where it’s well justified.

Cruz has a 63-33 advantage with voters who describe themselves as ‘very excited’ about voting in Tuesday’s runoff election. He also has a 49-45 advantage with those describing themselves as ‘somewhat excited.’ The only reason this race is even remotely competitive is Dewhurst’s 59-31 lead with voter who say they’re ‘not that excited’ about voting. It’s an open question whether those folks will really show up and if they don’t it’s possible Cruz could end up winning by closer t0 20 points.

The greater excitement among Cruz voters can also be measured by their eagerness to get out and cast their ballots during the early voting period. Cruz leads 55-40 among those who say they’ve already voted, so Dewhurst will likely need a huge advantage among election day voters to overcome the deficit. But Cruz has a 49-44 lead with those who have yet to vote too.

Cruz’s likely victory Tuesday is also indicative of a generational gap within the Texas Republican ranks. Dewhurst leads handily with seniors, 56-39. But he’s getting destroyed with younger voters, trailing 60-33 with those between 18 and 45 and 59-35 with those in the 46-65 age range.

And finally:

Runoffs are unpredictable and it still seems possible that Dewhurst could win on Tuesday, but for now it looks like all the momentum since the primary has gone in Ted Cruz’s direction.

It’s late, so I haven’t dug into the crosstabs yet, but this analysis corresponds closely with my tracking of the race. As long as ted Cruz’s team can continue to execute in these last 36 hours, I believe that Ted Cruz will be the next United States Senator from Texas.

Full results here.

Texas Senate Race Update for July 26, 2012

Thursday, July 26th, 2012

A quick roundup Texas Senate race news. Less than a week before the runoff! I’ll try to do at least one more update Monday.

  • Friday the Ted Cruz campaign is having a big get-out-the-vote rally in The Woodlands featuring Sarah Palin and Sen. Jim DeMint.
  • Saturday brings another get-out-the-vote rally, this one in Southlake (DFW area), featuring Rick Santorum and Congressman Michael Burgess.
  • Greg Groogan of Fox Houston seems impressed at the lineup.
  • Palin has also cut an automated call for Cruz:

  • Cruz is at FreePAC in Dallas…and David Dewhurst isn’t.
  • Former Texas GOP chair George Strake, Jr. says the latest Dewhurst smear is the dirtiest he’s ever seen.
  • George Will says that Dewhurst is good enough. I would take issue with one of Will’s assertions, though: If you read that letter signed by eighteen Texas state senators, it is not “in support of Dewhurst,” but rather a technical description of the various legislative fates of the various bills Cruz said Dewhurst either killed behind the scenes, or else didn’t push hard enough for. It’s not an endorsement of Dewhurst’s candidacy by those Senators. However, Dewhurst did just pick up the endorsement of…
  • State Senator Dan Patrick. Given the significant differences Dewhurst and Patrick have had over the years (most notably the fate of the anti-groping bill), that’s a good pickup for Dewhurst, though I don’t think it really moves the needle.
  • Many members of the legislative Tea Party Caucus are not pleased.
  • Erick Erickson is not impressed with the Will column.
  • Texas Comptroller Susan Combs also endorsed Dewhurst.
  • Sen. John Cornyn is maintaining strict neutrality in the race.
  • Dewhurst’s conservative credentials get examined by Rice professor Mark P. Jones, who concludes that “Dewhurst’s ideological location is somewhere in the moderate or centrist wings of the Republican Senate delegation,” while passing legislation acceptable to “most” Republicans.
  • Blogger Befuddled by the Clowns says that “Dewhurst because he clearly feels he will be able to swing in and buy the votes. In my mind, this represents the same old arrogance that has existed in Washington DC for decades. This prevailing attitude is the very essence that I want evaporated from our Federal Government…It is clear that David Dewhurst is out of touch with the real working class and will bring his elitist ideals with him. These are the reasons why I voted for Ted Cruz.”
  • Dewhurst appeared on KIII in Corpus Christi:

    KiiiTV3.com South Texas, Corpus Christi, Coastal Bend

  • The fourth day of early voting, and I just received my first piece of Dewhurst direct mail since the primary.
  • On the Democratic side of the runoff, Paul Sadler, the establishment candidate, picks up the usual establishment endorsements.
  • Sadler also appeared on KUHF.
  • Sadler had just over $30,000 cash on hand as of July 11.
  • Grady Yarbrough, who evidently still hasn’t filed an FEC report, has still somehow managed to buy air time, using the same video he put up on YouTube in June.
  • I’ll Be LiveTweeting The Cruz/Dewhurst Debate Tonight

    Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

    Tonight is the last Ted Cruz/David Dewhurst debate before the election. (Hey Dewhurst, what happened to all those other debates you said you were up for?)

    Baring unforeseen technical difficulties, I will be LiveTweeting the debate from Cruz headquarters in Austin. I’m guessing the hashtag will probably be #belodebate again. Drop in if you’re so inclined.

    Texas Senate Race Update for June 29, 2012

    Friday, June 29th, 2012

    Just over a month until the runoff, and the ObamaCare decision seems to have energized the Ted Cruz campaign:

  • The Cruz campaign announced that they crushed their $200,000 fundraising goal tied to their “Knockout punch to ObamaCare” pitch, including over 500 contributions within 24 hours of the Supreme Court upholding ObamaCare.
  • They’ve also been dinging David Dewhurst for his failure to sign a pledge to repeal ObamaCare.
  • Even though I’ve endorsed Ted Cruz, I think it only fair to point out that Dewhurst has, in fact, constantly stated that he’s in favor of repealing ObamaCare pretty much since he joined the Senate race. (I even used the Wayback machine to verify it.) However, Cruz has been more fervent and articulate in campaigning against ObamaCare, making the phrase “repeal every syllable of every word of Obamacare” one of his stock talking points from the very beginning of his campaign. He’s also discussed the 10th Amendment reasons why ObamaCare is unconstitutional, something that I don’t recall Dewhurst doing. (Dewhurst has mentioned the 10th Amendment in support of the Texas Voter ID law.)
  • Cruz’s worry (which I think is legitimate) is that Dewhurst might be willing to compromise on ObamaCare. And I could easily see Dewhurst signing on with some “Group of 14” (or whatever) to needlessly save ObamaCare despite a Republican House, Senate, and White House, rather than push for full repeal.
  • Which is why this rings a little hollow to me:

    But unlike some of Dewhurst’s other ads, at least that one probably won’t cost him votes…

  • Here’s the video of last week’s Cruz-Dewhurst debate:

  • Dewhurst ducks again.
  • Cruz also dinged Dewhurst for deceptively edited the answer to question on the Chinese tire issue Dewhurst never seems to tire of flogging.
  • The Dewhurst campaign is pointing to this Cruz appearance on the Dan Patrick show as evidence Cruz is a hothead:

    34 minutes? No time to listen tonight…

  • And here’s still another journalist opining that the mid-Summer runoff date will mean. Memo to the MSM: IT’S TEXAS! IT’S HOT! WE’RE FREAKING USE TO IT!
  • Grady Yarbrough and Paul Sadler also debated last week. Yarbrough said he supported a border wall, saying that the Berlin Wall was effective. Hmmm, I don’t think I would have made that analogy…
  • Speaking of things I’m not watching tonight, here’s KERA’s embeddable video of the Democratic debate:

    Watch The Texas Debates: Race for U.S. Senate, Democrats on PBS. See more from KERA Specials.

  • More on the Democratic debate. Another summary. My summary of those two summaries: Yarbrough wants a border wall and legal pot, and Sadler is against both of those. Sadler does actually say the national debt is too high.
  • Grady Yarbrough: Statewide Man of Mystery

    Thursday, June 7th, 2012

    It’s been more than a week since the primary, and we’re finally getting a trickle of information about the mysterious Grady Yarbrough, the man who garnered 127,971 votes in last week’s primary and will be face Paul Sadler in the runoff to determine the Democratic nominee for the United States Senate.

    We have a picture of him, thanks to the one he provided various voter guides:

    He also has a Facebook page. And he also has a website…that currently redirects back to his Facebook page.

    This is not the first statewide race Yarbrough has run, but the fourth, since he “ran unsuccessfully in 1986 and 1990 for the GOP nomination for land commissioner, and in 1994 as a Democrat for state treasurer.”

    Maybe Grady Yarbrough’s campaign evaded my sight because it was designed to? According to this tidbit from the Texas Tribune’s election night liveblog:

    Reached by phone, Yarbrough said he had not been following the results but is not surprised he is running ahead of Addie Allen and Sean Hubbard and only behind former state Rep. Paul Sadler.

    “I felt that it would be a runoff and yes, I have a plan for the runoff,” Yarbrough said. “It’s turning out the way I thought it would.”

    Unlike his three competitors in the primary, Yarbrough has not reported raising or spending any money with the Federal Elections Commission. Yarbrough said he just hasn’t filed any reports yet but did spend money around the state promoting his campaign. Yarbrough said he advertised in African-American newspapers and had yard signs up in several parts of the state.
    “I spent money, you bet I have,” Yarbrough said.

    In this interview, Yarbrough says that he “campaigns seven days a week, often up to 16 hours a day.” Also this: “I am doing selective campaigning. When there is a heavy Hispanic and African-American population in those counties, I go directly to those places. That’s how I’ve gotten to where I am now.”

    Obviously, a strategy to advertise in black newspapers around the state and do only face-to-face campaigning would fly completely under my radar (and explain last week’s endorsement news). Also, if he was indeed doing events seven days a week, it explains one reason he beat Sean Hubbard for the runoff spot: he out-hustled and out-worked him. Imagine that.

    Could voters be confusing him with long-dead liberal Democratic Senator Ralph Yarborough? (Ralph Yarborough was probably the single most influential figure in turning the Texas Democratic Party from a conservative majority party to a liberal minority party.) Given that Ralph Yarborough hasn’t been on the ballot in 40 years, I tend to doubt it. (Also, it seems to me that some of the media outlets pushing this theory are the same ones who keep telling us that people today have the attention spans of meth-addicted gnats.)

    I sent an email request to Grady Yarbrough through his Facebook page asking for an interview. I’ll let you know if he agrees to one (or even replies).

    Post-Primary Senate Race Roundup

    Wednesday, May 30th, 2012

    Here are the full results on the Republican and Democratic sides.

    Here are some random post-primary race tidbits. I’ll probably have a separate post about the mysterious Grady Yarbrough coming up in a day or two.

  • Last night was really two polls, and Cruz is only 3% behind in the most recent one.
  • The extraordinary nature of the runoff.
  • Cruz wants five debates with Dewhurst.
  • Paul Sadler wants in on that action as well. Whoa, dude. You better worry about slowing that Grady Yarbrough juggernaut first…
  • FreedomWorks is thrilled with Cruz’s showing.
  • At the bottom of this story, you can vote on whether Dewhurst’s last-minute amnesty smear was racist or not. Over 83% are currently voting yes.
  • Craig James issues a gracious, classy concession statement.
  • Speaking of James: Well, this isn’t very nice…
  • Even Paul Burka has has wised-up to fake Dewhurst internal polls. “Well, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twenty times, shame on me. The Dewhurst campaign has made too many claims about why a Dewhurst victory was inevitable without backing them up. The only poll that matters is the one that will be taken on July 31.”
  • Speaking of polls, both PPP and UT/TT polls were in the ballpark for the Republican race, but horribly off for the Democratic side. Any ideas why?
  • Sean Hubbard endorses Paul Sadler.
  • Cruz, Dewhurst Head to Runoff

    Tuesday, May 29th, 2012

    Returns are still coming in, but the MSM has already said the Texas Senate race will be a runoff between David Dewhurst and Ted Cruz. Right now its Dewhurst 46%, Cruz 33%, with Dewhurst edging down and Cruz edging up almost all night. This is the outcome team Dewhurst has been looking to avoid since he got into the race, and the one the Cruz campaign was hoping for.

    Lots more analysis tomorrow.