Posts Tagged ‘Steve Driehaus’

Steve Driehaus Gets Litigious

Tuesday, December 7th, 2010

Remember Steve Driehaus, the Ohio Democratic and Stupak-bloc flipper who went down in flames in November? You probably thought you’d seen the last of him.

Think again.

Driehaus is filing a lawsuit against the Susan B. Anthony List for “defamation of character” for billboards that: A.) Told the truth about him, and B.) Were never actually put up.

And the truth is: Steve Driehaus voted for an ObamaCare bill that provided public funding for abortions. And that’s a major reason he lost the election. No amount of litigation is going to change that fact.

Though the lawsuit does require adding one more description to Steve Driehaus: sore loser.

Post Election Analysis: Bart Stupak’s Turncoats Go Down in Flames

Wednesday, November 3rd, 2010

One of the most satisfying results of last night’s election was just how many of Bart Stupak’s block of ObamaCare flippers went down in flames.

If you remember back to the ObamaCare debates, Stupak’s bloc of “Pro-Life Democrats” was never, ever, ever, ever going to vote for a bill that included government funding of abortions. That is, right up until they did.

As shown below, on November 2, the clear majority of them paid the price for betraying their principles as well as their constituents. Unless otherwise noted, the election margins below are taken from this CBS table. Since WordPress doesn’t let me set font colors to red, I’ve marked GOP pickups in bold.

  • Rep. Jerry Costello of Illinois’ 12th district defeated Republican Teri Newman

  • Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana’ 2nd district edged Republican Jackie Walorski by less than 3,000 votes.
  • Rep. Brad Ellsworth left his Indiana’s 8th Congressional seat for an unsuccessful run for the Senate. Republican Larry Bucshon flipped the seat by defeating Trent Van Haaften by almost 40,000 votes.
  • Rep. Bart Stupak retired from Michigan’s 1st congressional district when it became apparent his ObamaCare betrayal doomed his electoral chances. Republican Dan Benishek flipped the seat by defeating Gary McDowell by 25,000 votes.
  • Rep. James Oberstar of Minnesota lost to Republican Chip Cravaack. You may also remember Oberstar for racking up only a single in-district donation to his reelection campaign.
  • Rep. Steve Driehaus of Ohio’s 1st district lost to Republican Steve Chabot by 23,000 votes.
  • Rep. Charles Wilson of Ohio’s 6th district lost to Republican Bill Johnson by 10,000 votes.
  • Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio’s 9th district beat James Iott (AKA Nazi Costume Guy) by a wide margin.
  • Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania’s 3rd district lost to Republican Mike Kelly by over 20,000 votes.
  • Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania’s 11th district lost to Lou Barletta by over 15,000 votes.
  • Rep. Solomon Ortiz of Texas’ 27th district loses to Republican Blake Farenthold by less than 1,000 votes.

That’s eight out of eleven Stupak bloc flippers whose seats are now in the hands of the GOP. And of those eleven races, I correctly picked ten, missing only Donnelly’s narrow victory in Indiana’s second district (which I originally had down as a longshot).

A few lessons:

  1. Voters hate ObamaCare.

  2. They hate congressmen who break promises. (Republicans should take special note of this one anytime they contemplate letting a GOP-controlled congress slip back to the old free-spending ways of the Bush43 years.)
  3. They hate Blue Dog Democrats who vote like liberals when the really important issues are on the line.
  4. Voters may be wising up to the fact that it doesn’t matter how much a Democrat swears up and down how Pro-Life, fiscally conservative, pro-gun, etc. they are; when push comes to shove, they’ll always cave in and vote with their liberal leadership.

As a reward for laying down their careers in the cause of ObamaCare, at least Blue Dogs have the consolation of the respect and gratitude of liberal activists everywhere. Ha, just kidding. The Daily Kossacks are saying “we can do without their sabotage.”

Oh yes, I’m sure that running Democrats ideologically closer to Nancy Pelosi than Dan Boren in places like Indiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio is a great way to pick up seats. I encourage you to get started on that right away.

BattleSwarm Blog’s Election Prediction for 2010: GOP Gains 67 House Seats, 10 Senate Seats

Monday, November 1st, 2010

With the election tomorrow, I thought it was high time to offer up my own election predictions.

I have carefully and scientifically evaluated each and every House and Senate race, taking into account length of incumbency, previous voting trends for each district and state, fund-raising advantage, the most recent polls, and the fact that every preceding clause in this sentence prior to this one has been a complete and utter lie.

I have looked at a lot of polls and data but damn, there are only so many hours in the day. My predictions are based on general national mood, gut-feeling, and detailed looks at trends for select races.

This is going to be worse for the Democrats than 1994. The rise of the Netroots and the overwhelming support among the traditional news media dangerously blinded liberal insiders from how badly out-of-sync with the rest of the country they had become, and their insistence to push onward with ObamaCare despite widespread opposition and a lousy economy turned what was already going to be a bad year for them into a once-in-a-lifetime political slaughter.

I predict that the Democrats will lose 67 House seats.

As I admitted above, that’s not a wild-assed guess, but a guestimate based on current polling data and news on individual races. I don’t see Republicans gaining less than 50 seats, and there’s an outside possibility they could get 100. To my mind, it’s much more likely they’ll gain more than 67 than less than 50.

Among the individual House races, I predict all the Stupak-bloc flippers except Marcy Kaptur (who had the luck to draw Nazi Uniform Guy as her opponent) and Jerry Costello (much as I appreciate GOP candidate Teri Newman popping in to say the race is tied, I just don’t see any traction at all in a 54% Obama district; I’d love to be surprised) will lose, including:

  1. Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana

  2. Indiana’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by Brad Ellsworth)
  3. Michigan’s open 1st congressional seat (formerly held by Bart Stupak)
  4. James Oberstar of Minnesota
  5. Steve Driehaus of Ohio
  6. Charles Wilson of Ohio
  7. Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania
  8. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania
  9. Solomon Ortiz of Texas

Additionally, I’m predicting that all of the following Democrats representing districts that voted for McCain in 2008 lose their jobs:

  1. Bobby Bright of Alabama

  2. Arkansas’ open 1st congressional district (formerly held by Marion Barry (AKA “the other Marion Barry”))
  3. Arkansas’ open 2nd congressional district (formerly held by Vic Snyder)
  4. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona
  5. Harry Mitchell of Arizona
  6. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona
  7. John Salazar of Colorado
  8. Betsy Markey of Colorado
  9. Allen Boyd of Florida
  10. Suzanne Kosmas of Florida
  11. Jim Marshall of Georgia
  12. Baron Hill of Indiana
  13. Ben Chandler of Kentucky
  14. Louisiana’s open 3rd congressional district (formerly held by Charlie Melancon)
  15. Frank Kratovil of Maryland
  16. Ike Skelton of Missouri
  17. Travis Childers of Mississippi
  18. Gene Taylor of Mississippi
  19. Mike McIntyre of North Carolina
  20. Heath Schuler of North Carolina
  21. Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota
  22. Harry Teague of New Mexico
  23. Michael McMahon of New York
  24. New York’s open 29th congressional district (formerly held by Eric Massa)
  25. John Boccieri of Ohio
  26. Zack Space of Ohio
  27. Christopher Carney of Pennsylvania
  28. Mark Critz of Pennsylvania (serving the remainder of the late John P. Murtha’s term)
  29. John Spratt of South Carolina
  30. Stephanie Sandlin of South Dakota
  31. Lincoln Davis of Tennessee
  32. Tennessee’s open 6th congressional district (formerly held by Bart Gordon)
  33. Tennessee’s open 8th congressional district (formerly held by John Tanner)
  34. Chet Edwards of Texas
  35. Tom Perriello of Virginia
  36. Rick Boucher of Virginia
  37. West Virgina’s first district (held by Allan Mollohan, who was defeated in the Democratic primaries)

That’s 46 seats right there, and I think there’s easily another 21 seats to be had in districts that went narrowly for Obama in 2008 to provide the final margin of victory.

I predict that the Democrats will lose 10 Senate seats.

The Senate is a tougher nut to flip this year, and as I set down to gauge Republican chances, I was shocked to find that, despite insider predictions, I actually had them winning ten seats to take control of the Senate. Running down the Senate races that Real Clear Politics shows as tossups I was only getting nine seats, but then I remembered that Blanche Lincoln is losing so badly in Arkansas that they had that down as a safe Republican flip.

Republicans should take over the following ten Senate seats:

  1. Arkansas
  2. Colorado
  3. Illinois
  4. Indiana
  5. Kentucky
  6. Nevada
  7. Pennsylvania
  8. Washington
  9. West Virginia
  10. Wisconsin

Much as I’d like to see an upset in California, I don’t see Carly Fiorina getting any traction in an overwhelmingly blue state; I think the out-migration of California’s best and brightest due to the high tax rates, crummy economy, the overwhelmingly powerful public sector unions and a near-bankrupt government (all related phenomena) has, ironically, made Californian even bluer.

The two races of the ten that will be most difficult for Republicans to pull off are Washington and West Virginia. Washington may be the tightest, simply because the Left Coast is so blue, but Rossi has been steadily gaining on Murray, and actually pulled ahead in the latest PPP poll. And PPP usually has a Democratic bias, so in a wave election, you have to give it to the Republican if polling is within the margin of error.

In West Virginia, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict a victory for Republican John Raese even though Joe Manchin is up four points in the most recent poll, for the following reasons:

  • McCain won West Virginia by 13.1 points in 2008, which was four points above the poll RCP average. Asking Manchin to run 14 points better in 2010 than Obama did in 2008 is a pretty tall order.

  • The state has been trending Republican for years. It went for Clinton over both Bush41 and Dole, but for Bush43 over Gore by 6.3%, and Bush43 over Kerry by 12.9%.
  • West Virginia fits the classic demographic pattern for “Reagan Democrats”: It’s 94.4% white, and is relatively rural and blue collar, and with a household income significantly below the national average. Those are the very voters that are abandoning Democrats this year.
  • Along those same lines, Hillary Clinton beat Obama handily here in 2008, even though Obama had all but clinched the nomination at the time. West Virginia voters fit the classic “Jacksonian” profile, the portions of the Democratic base that has been most alienated by Obama’s policies.
  • Say what you will about the late Senator Robert Byrd, but he was extraordinarily popular in his home state right up to the end. But his name isn’t on the top of the ballot this time around, and without that reminder of their old “born and bred” Democratic allegiance to remind them, 2010 may finally be the year when remaining West Virginia conservative Democrats make the switch to the GOP.
  • The areas that have been most fruitful for Democratic fraud efforts in the past have been urban enclaves with strong Democratic minority machine politics, which are pretty much absent here.
  • Logic dictates that if that this truly is a nationalized “wave” election, it will show up strongly here.

Honestly, I think the Democrats taking the Washington senate seat is more likely that West Virginia.

So the Republicans take both House and Senate in an electoral slaughter unprecedented in modern times. So I have foretold, and so it shall be!

And if you disagree, post your own predictions below.

LinkSwarm for Thursday, October 28, 2010

Thursday, October 28th, 2010

So much election news, so little time to write about it:

(Hat tips: Real Clear Politics, Fark, NRO’s The Corner, and probably some I’ve forgotten. I’m dancing as fast as I can.)

After Getting Them to Flip for ObamaCare, National Democrats Says “See Ya!” to Kosmas, Driehaus, and Dahlkemper

Tuesday, October 12th, 2010

So right after I put this piece on vulnerable Democratic House seats, this New York Times story appears stating that three of the Dem Reps we profiled, Steve Driehaus (OH 1), Suzanne Kosmas (FL 24) and Kathy Dahlkemper (PA 3) have been “triaged” and will no longer receive national Democratic TV advertising buys. As I noted yesterday, all three flipped their ObamaCare votes from No to Yes, two of them (Driehaus and Dahlkemper) as theoretically Pro-Life members of Bart Stupak’s bloc.

So the same party that pressured them to abandon their “deeply held beliefs” to pass ObamaCare is now tossing each of them aside like a used condom. I hope they enjoy the sour lemony tang of those just deserts.

The Times piece goes on to state that the Democrats are now targeting ad buys for Rep. Charles Wilson (OH 6) (not to be confused with late Texas Rep. “Goodtime” Charlie Wilson, of anti-Communist fame), another Stupak-bloc flipper who was not on that list of 72 endangered Democrats, which would indicate there are fewer and fewer “safe” Democratic seats in this election. In addition to ObamaCare, Wilson voted for TARP and the Stimulus, but against Cap-and-Trade. Wilson’s opponent is Bill Johnson, who’s drawn endorsements from Sarah Palin and other GOP heavy hitters.

Although it’s always wise to heed Instapundit’s “don’t get cocky” advice, I like the way Power and Control’s M. Simon Rockford put it: “Republicans at 100+ House seats is looking better every day.”

Selected House Democrats Who May Be Swamped By The Coming Tidal Wave

Monday, October 11th, 2010

So how bad are Democratic House members doing this election? According to the National Journal, pretty bad. They count 60 seats among the most competitive and another 19 very close. Of those 79 House seats in play, 72 are currently held by Democrats.

As for where Democrats are spending their money, six of the seven districts the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending money on went for Obama by more that 54%. They say that they’re trying to “nail down” relatively easy seats before moving on to harder ones, but that makes absolutely no sense; if you really want to help the marginal seats, you start helping them out first, because they need the most work. No, this smacks of triage, and suggests that the DCCC considers most districts below that line as good as gone.

There are a number of interesting races and names that should be familiar to regular BattleSwarm readers, either from being in Texas or having been mentioned here before:

  • Chet Edwards (TX 17) comes in at #7. (I would say that Edwards is the last remnant of the old Texas Blue Dogs, but I didn’t know that Henry Cueller (TX-28) was an actual member of the Blue Dog Collation, which Edwards is not.) Edwards voted against ObamaCare and Cap-and-Trade, but did vote for the Stimulus and the TARP bank bailout. District is heavily Republican; went for Bush by 68% in 2000, 70% in 2004, and 67% for McCain. His opponent is Bill Flores.

  • Suzanne Kosmas (FL 24) comes in at #9 on the list. You may remember this BattleSwarm piece on her back when she was a wavering no vote on ObamaCare; as I predicted, she was easier to flip to a Yes vote that Rep. Jason Altmire (PA 4), who I also profiled, and who stuck to his no vote. Which goes a long way toward explaining why Kosmas is likely to lose her seat, while Altmire isn’t on the list of endangered Democrats. Go figure. She also voted for the Stimulus and Cap-and-Trade. (Kosmos was first elected in 2008, so she didn’t vote on TARP.) District went for Bush in 2000 by 53%, Bush in 2004 by 55%, and McCain by 52%. Her opponent is Sandy Adams.
  • Indiana’s open 8th congressional district, held by Brad Ellsworth, who is leaving for a Senate run (which polls show he’s currently losing by 17 points), comes in at #11. The contest is between Democrat Trent Van Haaften and Republican Larry Bucshon. Ellsworth was of the theoretically Pro-Life members of the Bart Stupak bloc that rolled over for Nancy Pelosi on ObamaCare. District went for Bush by 57% in 2000, 62% in 2004, and for McCain by 51%.
  • Paul Kanjorski (PA 11) comes in at #15. Another Stupak bloc turncoat. Voted for TARP. Voted in favor of the Stimulus, but evidently decided oversight was so unimportant that he that he only attended three of the ten Pennsylvania Stimulus Oversight Board meetings. Has a reputation as a big spender: “Asking Paul Kanjorski to make sure our tax dollars are being spent wisely is like asking John Dillinger to keep an eye on the bank safe.” (IBID). Yesterday’s LinkSwarm mentioned how he earmarked $10 million for a business run by his own family. District went 54% for Gore, 53% for Kerry, and 57% for Obama. His opponent is Lou Barletta.
  • Steve Driehaus (OH 1) comes in at #16. Another Stupak-blocer who rolled over to let Nancy Pelosi rub his furry belly. In addition to ObamaCare, he voted for the Stimulus and Cap-and-Trade. (He was elected in 2008, and so didn’t vote on TARP.) District went 51% for Bush in both 2000 and 2004, but only 44% for McCain. His opponent is Steve Chabot, who held the seat for 12 years before Driehaus edged him 52%-48% in the Obama wave of 2008.
  • Kathy Dahlkemper (PA 3) comes in at #20. Yet another turncoat Supak-blocer Pelosi flipped for ObamaCare. Also voted for the Stimulus but against Cap-and-Trade. Wasn’t in Congress when TARP was voted on. District voted 51% for Bush in 2000 and 53% in 2004, and McCain edged Obama by a mere 20 votes in 2008. Her opponent is Mike Kelly.
  • Speaking of Stupak, Michigan’s open 1st congressional district comes in at #35. Realizing that his betrayal of his Pro-Life position to pass ObamaCare made him electoral toast, Stupak declined to run for reelection, leaving the battle to Democrat Gary McDowell and Republican doctor Dan Benishek. District went for Bush by 52% in 2000 and 53% in 2004, but 50% for Obama.
  • Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) is off the list of top 60 races, but shows up in the “Knocking on the Door” section. Another Stupak bloc turncoat. In addition to ObammaCare, he voted for the Stimulus, but against Cap-and-trade and TARP. His district went for Bush by 54% in 200 and 57% in 2004, but for Obama by 51%. His opponent is Francisco “Quico” Canseco. Rodriguez came to national attention recently thanks to his defensive tone when constituents asked him to defend his vote on ObamaCare:

Time permitting, I’ll try to do additional posts on each of those races, plus a few others (including some longer shots that just might pay off in a tidal wave year). But if you’re looking for places your campaign contributions might be the most effective at unseating Democrats, the challengers linked to above are certainly worthy of your consideration.

References

There’s No Such Thing as a “Pro-Gun Democrat” As Long As Nancy Pelosi is Speaker

Thursday, July 15th, 2010

All across the country, Democrats running for office “are embracing gun owners’ rights [and] winning favor from the National Rifle Association.”

Overall this is a good development, as it shows how unpopular gun control is outside of a few extremely liberal urban enclaves. However, voters should not mistake a politician taking the popular side of an issue with deeply held belief. As long as Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker of the House of Representatives, no House Democrat can be considered Pro-Second Amendment, stated positions and NRA endorsements not withstanding.

Every one of those “pro-gun Democrats” is probably just as committed to Second Amendment issues as Bart Stupak was to Pro-Life issues. Remember him? He was a hero to Pro-Life forces and was even going to receive a “Defender of Life Award” for refusing to cave in on including taxpayer-funded abortions for ObamaCare.

That is, right up until he folded-up like a three-card-monte table when Pelosi put the pressure on him. He was bought off for an empty promise and a handful of magic beans. But it wasn’t just Stupak who caved. There were ten other “staunch Pro-Life Democrats” who folded with him:

  • Rep. Jerry Costello of Illinois.

  • Rep. Joseph Donnelly of Indiana
  • Rep. Brad Ellsworth of Indiana
  • Rep. James Oberstar of Minnesota
  • Rep. Steve Driehaus of Ohio
  • Rep. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio
  • Rep. Charles Wilson of Ohio
  • Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania
  • Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania
  • Rep. Solomon Ortiz of Texas

(And all of whom just happened to have raked in huge earmarks after their vote.)

Look at all those “Pro-Life Democrats” willing to fund abortions with taxpayer money when Nancy Pelosi snapped her fingers. Now ask yourself: Were any of these Democrats any less “Pro-Life” than your Democratic congressman is “Pro-Second Amendment?”

Moreover, many of those “Pro-Gun Democrats” are the same “Pro-Life Democrats” who flipped for Pelosi. Take a look at their NRA ratings from 2008 (the NRA hasn’t released all their 2010 rankings yet):

  • Joseph Donnelly? A.

  • Brad Ellsworth? A.
  • Charles Wilson? A.
  • Paul Kanjorski? A.
  • Solomon Ortiz? A.

All of them betrayed their “deep beliefs” on abortion. There is absolutely no reason to believe they wouldn’t do the same thing on gun control.

The NRA can only rate votes and questionnaires, it can’t tell when someone is lying, or who will fold when enough pressure is applied. The Democratic nutroots, their funding sources, their staffers, and the entire media establishment is just as anti-gun as they are pro-abortion. That’s the “reality-based community” Democratic politicians live in. That’s the same community that will be lauding them for their “courage” when they betray voters’ trust to vote how Pelosi wants them to. It will also be the same community offering them cushy job opportunities should those same voters retire them in November. Democratic House members only have to face voters once every two years; they have to face liberal insiders every single working day.

If you don’t think Democrats would still love to ban guns, take a look at how Democratic Mayors like Richard Daley of Chicago and Michael Nutter of Philadelphia want to make an end-run around that whole pesky Constitution: “American gun manufacturers should be held responsible in the World Court, since American-made guns are used in violent crime elsewhere in the world.” I’m sure that a World Court ruling against gun ownership would provide Obama, Pelosi and Reid with just the political excuse they need to start “reluctantly” drafting gun control legislation. And Pelosi herself has made no secret of her own gun control agenda.

The only safe course of action is to assume that, should gun control make it back up to the top of the Democratic agenda, any “Pro-Gun Democrat” could flip their vote if that’s the one Pelosi needs to assure the bill’s passage. And they only way to prevent that from happening is to vote Pelosi’s Democrats out of power come November, no matter whether some of them have an “A” rating from the NRA or not.