Today voters go to the polls in Indiana. If Cruz wins, we’re likely headed to a floor fight at the Republican convention. If not…
Posts Tagged ‘Ted Cruz’
Ted Cruz has named Carly Fiorina as his Vice Presidential running mate. Assuming, of course, he gets the nomination.
Fiorina is OK, but there are better candidates, and candidates that help you more in the general election. Of course, Cruz has to get the nomination first. Can he pick up more Republican women with the pick? Maybe, but I’d be surprised if it really moves the needle. Fiorina’s own campaign didn’t set the world on fire, and if women weren’t already alienated by Donald Trump, I don’t see Fiorina pulling them into the Cruz camp.
I do see four potential positives:
- It helps put Trump’s very good Tuesday night (where he won every state) in the shade.
- Maybe it gives women voting for John Kasich an excuse to vote Cruz?
- Maybe it forces the press to cover Fiorina going after Trump full-bore.
- Maybe it makes Cruz slightly more competitive in California.
Can it keep Trump from getting a first ballot win? Maybe, though Trump was already slightly off pace to clench anyway. But I’m not sure it alters the fundamental dynamics of the race.
Today primary voters go to the polls in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. A few Presidential race updates:
Ted Cruz and John Kasich have evidently come to an understanding about clearing the way for the other to fight Donald Trump in the states they’re respectively strongest in:
Tonight, Kasich for America chief strategist John Weaver issued the following statement:
“Donald Trump doesn’t have the support of a majority of Republicans – not even close, but he currently does have almost half the delegates because he’s benefited from the existing primary system. Our goal is to have an open convention in Cleveland, where we are confident a candidate capable of uniting the Party and winning in November will emerge as the nominee.”
Blather about Kasich’s awesomeness snipped.
Due to the fact that the Indiana primary is winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district, keeping Trump from winning a plurality in Indiana is critical to keeping him under 1237 bound delegates before Cleveland. We are very comfortable with our delegate position in Indiana already, and given the current dynamics of the primary there, we will shift our campaign’s resources West and give the Cruz campaign a clear path in Indiana.
In turn, we will focus our time and resources in New Mexico and Oregon, both areas that are structurally similar to the Northeast politically, where Gov. Kasich is performing well. We would expect independent third-party groups to do the same and honor the commitments made by the Cruz and Kasich campaigns.
This is a smart move against Trump, and one that keeps Cruz’s real hopes (and Kasich’s delusional ones) alive.
This is not only the strangest Presidential election of our lifetimes, it’s probably the strangest Presidential election since 1876 (the last time the House of Representatives choose Republican Rutherford Hayes over Democrat Samuel Tilden due to double sets of returns from southern states still undergoing reconstruction), and possibly since 1860…
Once again, Ted Cruz has outflanked the Donald Trump Campaign:
While Donald Trump is winning big delegate states and trumpeting his presumptive-nominee status, GOP presidential rival Sen. Ted Cruz and his campaign are quietly fighting — and winning — delegate support, the latest coming Saturday night in Maine.
Cruz won 19 of 20 delegates Saturday night at the Maine GOP convention.
On Saturday, the Cruz campaign picked up a total of 65 delegates, including nine in three Minnesota congressional districts, one in a South Carolina congressional district and at least 36 of 37 national delegates in Utah, after winning the state’s GOP caucus last month, according to Politico.
Again, none of this matters if Trump can secure a first ballot victory at the Republican convention. But if he doesn’t, Cruz is exceptionally well-positioned to become the Republican nominee on the second or third ballot.
Trump is great at getting free media attention, but he sucks at actually dealing with the Republican grassroots. That, his inability to hire and lead a first-rate campaign team, and his unwillingness to learn from his mistakes, could very well cost him the nomination.
“Ted Cruz on Saturday won all 14 delegates in the Wyoming GOP convention — a relatively small number but enough for the Texas senator to declare victory and keep GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump from securing the nomination.”
You would think that after the first time this happened, Donald Trump would have gotten his ass in gear and hired someone to work on the delegate selection problem for him. The fact he keeps getting pantsed again and again in the delegate fight suggests either an inability to learn from his mistakes, deep organizational dysfunction on behalf of Team Trump, or both.
And each time it happens, Trump demonstrates, yet again, why he’s not smart and organized enough to be president, while Ted Cruz proves, yet again, that he is…
Ted Cruz’s and Marco Rubio’s supporters have teamed up in Arkansas to pack the state delegation with individuals who’ll turn against Donald Trump in a contested convention.
Since Rubio ended his presidential bid March 15, his network of party insiders has lined up behind Cruz to win delegates who’d vote for the Texas senator once they’re no longer bound to Trump in a floor fight. Trump won Arkansas’ GOP primary March 1 with 32.8 percent of the vote compared to Cruz’s 30.5 percent and Rubio’s 24.9 percent. But Cruz’s canny operatives, with Rubio riding shotgun, is likely to thwart Trump in the delegate election.
Trump’s organization is as sloppy in Arkansas as elsewhere, just as Cruz’s is an efficient machine in state after state. This could ding the Donald, costing him as many as 25 delegates after a first inconclusive ballot. Cruz, who finished with 15 out of the available 40 delegates in primary voting, stands to gain all 16 Trump delegates and the 9 won by Rubio.
Bart Hester, a top Rubio organizer in Arkansas, said he’s filling Rubio’s delegate slate with individuals committed to opposing Trump in Cleveland.
Add this to Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina and Indiana where Cruz has outfoxed Trump on the delegate front. None of this matters of Trump manages to get to 1,237 delegates. But if he can’t get there, Cruz is the heads-on favorite to prevail on a second or third ballot.
Early on delegate selection rules worked in favor of Trump, awarding him about 22% more delegates than he received via a strict proportional vote. Now that Trump’s popularity has nosedived and his momentum stalled, the delegate selection process (and his his own disorganization and ignorance of the process) is working against him as Ted Cruz outflanks and outworks him at every turn.
(Hat tip: Director Blue.)
I’ve decided to get rich in New York real estate.
I’m going to fly in, get some bank loans, buy up existing old properties, tear them down, build some shiny new condos in their place, and make a mint.
Which properties? Which bank will you get loans from? Who will you hire to do the construction? How will you navigate the labyrinth NYC regulatory codes for property, labor, construction, etc.?
Eh, details. Don’t bother me with details. I’m just going to wing it.
Does this sound foolish to you? Misguided? Naive?
Well, that’s precisely the approach Donald Trump appears to have undertaken in his Presidential race. Now he’s whining that Ted Cruz, who’s a smart, focused guy with a smart, focused team that understands exactly how the process works in each state, is cleaning his clock in actually picking up delegates.
Here’s Rush Limbaugh on why Trump’s claims of “cheating” are bogus:
The one thing that nobody had a heads-up on was how Cruz was going to go into all of these states and arrange to get most of the delegates. We’re talking second and third ballot here. On the first ballot the delegates — for the most part; there are exceptions — are pledged to vote the way the people in their state voted. Pennsylvania, however, is different. Pennsylvania is coming up. You want to know about Pennsylvania? Only 17 out of Pennsylvania’s 70 some odd delegates vote the way voters in the primary go. Some 51, 54, I don’t have the number right in front of me, over 50 delegates in Pennsylvania are unbound, on the first ballot.
Just use an example. If Trump wins Pennsylvania by 75%, he likely will only get 17 of the 60 or 70 delegates, because only 17 are pledged and bound to whoever wins the state primary. Well, Trump has not been working any of these delegates. Why? Who knows. It could be that he didn’t think he had to. It could be he didn’t even know. It could be he had nobody on his staff that really knows how this works.
You do because you have been treated to in-depth explanations of how this whole delegate process works, particularly once we get to second and third ballots. And even I pointed out to you that it’s very possible — we won’t know actually ’til the convention starts — very possible that a lot of delegates that have to vote Trump on the first ballot don’t actually support him. And if we get to second or third ballot then they’ll abandon him and go for whoever. Right now Cruz is calling dibs.
Now, what happened in Colorado is, I’m sorry to say, it’s not a trick. What happened in Colorado is right out in the open. Everybody’s known how Colorado runs its affairs. Everybody has known. Nobody just chose to look at it. It’s no secret that Colorado was gonna have a convention and they’re gonna choose their delegates before the primary. It’s not a secret. It’s just nobody leaked it. Nobody talked about it. Nobody bragged about it. So it was left to be discovered by people who didn’t know. And it turns out that people on the Trump campaign didn’t know.
Now, I can understand how they might feel tricked here. I can understand how they might feel bugabooed because millions of votes, theoretically, are gonna happen that aren’t going to count. Hey, welcome to establishment politics. We have played for you the sound bites on this program of delegates — I’m sorry — of officials, rules committee officials. We played the sound bite of one of these guys that said, “Hey, what you all have to understand is the people don’t select our nominee; the delegates do, we do.” None of this is a mystery. This is the definition of insider versus outsider. This is a classic illustration of how an outsider has to learn the insider game to play it.
So I don’t see Ted Cruz lying and cheating his way to the convention. I see a lot of hard work. I see some people who know what they have to do, given where they are. They’re in second place in both the vote count and the delegate count. They’re serious about winning. The Cruz team is serious about winning. They have made themselves fully aware of how the process works, and they’ve been out working it for quite a while. They went into Louisiana where Trump scored a massive win but they’ve come out of there with many more delegates than, by appearances, they should have.
Ted Cruz had goals. He worked the problem ’til he got the result he wanted. What he’s demonstrating, folks, he’s demonstrating he knows how to work himself within this insider labyrinth. He knows how to navigate it. He knows how to work it. He knows how to turn it to his advantage. You have to look at this and say, “Okay, what does this tell us about Cruz, if he should become president?” No matter how enamored you are — and a lot of people are — no matter how enamored you are of the notion of a total outsider with no links to the establishment, no links to insider politics, nothing whatsoever, you’re fascinated by that happening, somebody coming in and just totally wrecking the castle, finding out that you can’t do that without getting inside the castle first. ‘Cause people inside the castle are not gonna let you crumble the walls.
You know, being an outsider, it has benefits, but it has drawbacks, too, and knowing the rules inside out and outworking the competition is not cheating. If you happen to be more knowledgeable of how things work and are able to work it to your advantage, that’s just hard work. That isn’t cheating.
Trump never tires of reminding us all how smart he is. But if he’s so smart, why hasn’t he hired smart people who know exactly how the delegate selection process works in each state?
Just as it’s a bad idea to “wing it” as a New York real estate developer, running for President isn’t a task amenable to half-assing it.
If Trump is as incompetent at the one main task he’s set himself (getting elected President), why would anyone think he would do better at the hundreds of tasks the President of the United States of America must oversee?