For those still on the “Oh God, Hillary is going to slaughter Trump” express, now might be a good time to start making your way to the exits.
David S. Bernstein lays out four ways Hillary can lose. Fortunately for Trump, she seems to be managing them all:
It’s not hard to see how quickly this could start costing her Electoral College votes in the Rust Belt, where Trump hopes to improve on past Republican performance. (And where, you may remember, Clinton had to apologize for threatening to put coal companies out of business.) In Ohio, for example, 22 percent of 2012 voters came from union households, and 60 percent of them voted for Obama. In Wisconsin, a similar share of the electorate voted 2-to-1 for Obama over Romney. In 2016, both states went for Sanders over Clinton in their primaries. In Pennsylvania, where Trump is planning a major effort, union households provided Obama more than half his net margin.
Read the whole thing.
Missing from the analysis: The dead certainty that Hillary will not do as well among black voters as Obama did. But that’s an analysis for another day…
(Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)