{"id":15433,"date":"2012-11-05T20:23:58","date_gmt":"2012-11-06T02:23:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/?p=15433"},"modified":"2012-11-05T20:23:58","modified_gmt":"2012-11-06T02:23:58","slug":"how-big-will-ted-cruz-win-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/?p=15433","title":{"rendered":"How Big Will Ted Cruz Win Tomorrow?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m pretty confident that <a href=\"\">Ted Cruz<\/a> will win the election (and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/?p=15131\">deservedly so<\/a>). The only question now is: By how much? <\/p>\n<p>To determine that, let&#8217;s look at the recent history of non-Presidential top-of-the-ballot races in Texas:<\/p>\n<li>2000 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 4,078,954 (65%) over Gene Kelly 2,025,024 (32%)\n<li>2002 Senate: John Cornyn 2,480,991 (55%) over Ron Kirk 1,946,681 (43%)\n<li>2002 Governor: Rick Perry 2,617,106 (58%) over Tony Sanchez 1,809,915 (40%)\n<li>2006 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 2,661,789 (62%) over Barbara Ann Radnofsky 1,555,202 (36%)\n<li>2008 Senate: John Cornyn 4,326,639 (55%) over Rick Noriega 3,383,890 (43%)\n<li>2010 Governor: Rick Perry 2,733,784 (55%) over Bill White 2,102,606 (42%)\n<\/li>\n<p>(I&#8217;m throwing out the 4-way 2006 gubernatorial race as not germane. All numbers via Wikipdia, % rounded.)<\/p>\n<p>In terms of financial resources, Sadler&#8217;s fundraising has been very poor, having raised <a href=\"http:\/\/query.nictusa.com\/cgi-bin\/cancomsrs\/?_12+S2TX00429\">just over $800,000<\/a>; poorer even than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/?p=7602\">Rick Noriega<\/a>, who managed to raise over $4 million, or Barbara Ann Radnofsky, who raised about $1.5 million. Then again, money isn&#8217;t everything: Tony Sanchez spent $60 million of his own money to garner a meager 40% against Rick Perry in 2002.<\/p>\n<p>I don&#8217;t think Sadler will do as poorly as vanity candidate Gene Kelly did in 2000. I expect Obama to run 4-5 points worse than he did in 2008, and I expect Sadler to probably lose a point or two off Obama&#8217;s total. So, I predict: Ted Cruz gets 61% of the vote, and Paul Sadler gets around 39%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m pretty confident that Ted Cruz will win the election (and deservedly so). The only question now is: By how much? To determine that, let&#8217;s look at the recent history of non-Presidential top-of-the-ballot races in Texas: 2000 Senate: Kay Bailey Hutchison 4,078,954 (65%) over Gene Kelly 2,025,024 (32%) 2002 Senate: John Cornyn 2,480,991 (55%) over [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":27,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,13,18,12],"tags":[928,1264,203,1109,1474,1433,1794,200,1258,950,2861,945,1259],"class_list":["post-15433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-democrats","category-elections","category-republicans","category-texas","tag-2012-election","tag-barbara-ann-radnofsky","tag-bill-white","tag-fundraising","tag-gene-kelly","tag-paul-sadler","tag-rick-noriega","tag-rick-perry","tag-ron-kirk","tag-ted-cruz","tag-texas","tag-texas-senate-race","tag-tony-sanchez"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15433"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15433\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15475,"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15433\/revisions\/15475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.battleswarmblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}