If you’re a long time incumbent, you’re not supposed to be running in third place in a three man race, especially after you’ve dumped a whole lot of money into the race, yet that’s exactly the position John Cornyn finds himself in.
A new poll of likely Republican primary voters shows U.S. Sen. John Cornyn’s support continuing to decline ahead of the 2026 Texas GOP primary, with Cornyn now falling into third place in a three-way matchup.
The poll, conducted November 21–22 by Stratus Intelligence, surveyed 857 likely Republican primary voters in Texas. It found Attorney General Ken Paxton leading with 36 percent, followed by U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt at 26 percent, and Cornyn at 25 percent. Fourteen percent of voters remain undecided.
The first caveat is that 857 likely voters is a fairly small sample for a state as large as Texas. I’ve seen smaller, but generally you want to see something at least in the 1,500-2,000 range. The second caveat is that I’m not seeing the crosstabs here. There are a bit fewer shenanigans to pull if you’re actually only polling Republicans, but I still want to see the crosstabs.
The third caveat is that all the other usual poll concerns apply.
Cornyn’s favorability rating has also declined. The survey shows him at 35 percent favorable and 51 percent unfavorable, with 28 percent of respondents holding a “very unfavorable” view of the incumbent senator.
In hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Paxton leads Cornyn 51 percent to 34 percent, while Hunt leads Cornyn 52 percent to 29 percent. The memo accompanying the poll states that Cornyn has spent more than $40 million on advertising and campaign activity this year but that his numbers have not improved.
$40 million to make yourself less popular? That’s some mighty fine campaign management there, Lou.
Early TV advertising is the perpetual fool’s gold of political campaigns, as it rarely moves the needle, especially for incumbents. Thus far I have not received a single direct mail flyer from any of the three Republican senate candidates (though I have received four from AG candidate Mayes Middleton).
The polling also explored President Donald Trump’s potential influence. In a scenario where Trump endorses Cornyn, Paxton still leads 44 percent to 41 percent. By contrast, if Trump endorses Hunt, Hunt leads Paxton 51 percent to 31 percent.
Interesting.
Small poll samples aside, it reinforces the existing impression of Cornyn: A long-time incumbent who’s worn out his welcome with Republican primary voters,