Posts Tagged ‘Anthony Weiner’

Some Analysis of the Republican Victory in the New York Ninth Congressional District Special Election

Thursday, September 15th, 2011

I’m a sucker for wonkish political analysis of voting results, so here are some of the more notable results-scrying for Bob Turner’s win over David Weprin in New York’s Ninth Congressional District after Rep. Anthony “look at my bulge” Weiner resigned in disgrace. A race Weprin lost despite $485,000 of DCCC ad buys and having Bill Clinton and New York Governor Andrew Coumo campaign for him. I’m going to ignore the usual “weak candidate, ran a bad race” blather liberals always trot out when a Democrat loses, because it’s become a tautology that doesn’t explain anything. He lost? Bad candidate that ran a bad campaign. He won? A good candidate who ran a good campaign.

Speaking of incompetence, let’s also dismiss DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz laughable assertion that a district where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 3-1 “is difficult for Democrats.” Even more risible is Wasserman Schultz’s claim that Obama has an “incredibly strong record on Israel.” She truly is the gift that keeps giving to Republicans.

So why did Weprin lose? Some theories:

  • Much has been made of former Democratic Mayor Ed Koch’s support for Turner and Obama’s abysmal record on Israel turning off the districts heavy Jewish population.
  • Over at Real Clear Politics, Sean Trende suggests that the win might be seen in light of Obamas slipping popularity with white voters.
  • Over at National Review Online, Kathryn Jean Lopez thinks Weprin’s support of gay marriage may have done him in. Her theory gets support from, of all places, The Village Voice.
  • Finally, there’s the theory that Obama is so unpopular that he’s dragging down all Democratic candidates with him, no matter where they run. And who’s floating this particular theory? That would be Weprin himself.
  • Democratic strategist James Carville says it’s time for Obama to panic, but his advice is on the lines of firing people, find some scapegoats, and return to Ye Olde Big Government Religion. (He also seems to regard a $1.25 trillion budget deficit as “austerity.”) Walter Russell Mead isn’t impressed with the advice: “This President doesn’t do ‘tough’ very well….he isn’t convincing as a Chuck Norris impersonator. Often when he tries to sound tough he comes out tinny. Also, teleprompters don’t work when the goal is to project spontaneous, righteous and passionate rage.”

    If NY9 is indeed a bellwether for 2012 (a big if), Democrats are in for some pretty rough storms over the next 14 months…

    Percy Bysshe Shelley, Now With Added Dick Jokes

    Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

    Iowahawk has outdone himself this time.

    `My name is Weinermandius, Dong of Dongs:
    Look on my junk, ye mighty, and despair!’

    Anthony Weiner’s Seat Could Be a 2012 Pickup Target for Republicans

    Tuesday, June 7th, 2011

    So now that Anthony Weiner has fessed up to twitting his Little Tony to multiple women, what’s next? He claims he won’t resign, despite Nancy Pelosi asking for a House ethics committee investigation. A poll on whether Weiner should resign was evenly split, though interestingly, more men than women said he should resign: “42 percent of women agreed that Weiner should pull out.” This poll was of all NYC rather than just the 9th Congressional District.

    I remember thinking that the scandal would have very little impact on 2012 elections, since Weiner’s 9th district is in New York City, and thus a deep blue liberal stronghold Republicans have no chance of picking up.

    But now that I’ve looked into it more closely, the answer is: Not so much. Despite Weiner being one of the most liberal Democrats in congress, New York’s 9th Congressional District is probably the least liberal congressional district in New York City. Indeed, the district seems to be drawn to get white voters out of other NYC majority minority districts. Obama only beat McCain there 55% to 44%, much worse than Gore’s 67%-30% drubbing of Bush there in 2000, and Weiner only pulled in 60.8% of the vote against an underfunded Republican opponent in 2010,about which Hotline on Call notes: “For Weiner, that was a limp performance.”

    Whether Weiner resigns or not, New York’s Ninth congressional district will still be a tough target for Republicans, but not an impossible one. It just went from “Solid Democrat” to merely a “Strong Lean.”