Democrats illegal redistricting attempt in Virginia is dead (while Republican efforts in other states steamroll ahead), more welfare state fraud exposed, Trump actually shrinks the federal workforce, Ukraine hits a wide range of targets across Russia, more Democrats soft on illegal alien sex offenders, Jose Garza lawyers up, and all it takes is nine seconds for AI to completely destroy your business.
Virginia’s Supreme Court just pounded a stake through the heart of Democrats rule-breaking redistricting push in that state.
The Virginia Supreme Court on Friday rejected the state’s mid-decade redistricting effort, which was passed by referendum last month and would overwhelmingly benefit Democrats.
The state spent $5.2 million to pay for the special election to ask voters to approve the map, which would have created ten districts that favor Democrats, with just one district favoring Republicans.
The new map was designed to allow Democrats to pick up as many as four seats in the upcoming midterm elections.
But after Republicans challenged the new map in court, judges for the state’s supreme court found that the legislature made procedural errors in how it placed the question on the ballot last month. The court’s majority found that the legislature violated the multi-step process for putting constitutional amendments on the ballot.
“This constitutional violation incurably taints the resulting referendum vote and nullifies its legal efficacy,” the judges wrote.
“This violation irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void,” the majority added.
The court ordered the state to use the same congressional district map in the upcoming midterm elections as it used in 2022 and 2024.
Donald Trump is the devil Democrats will cut down any tree of the law to get at.
In response to the lawsuit, Oregon Secretary of State Tobias Read announced earlier this year that Oregon has about 800,000 inactive registrations, which are kept separately from the active voter rolls and do not receive ballots. Of those, roughly 160,000 already meet federal and state criteria for removal—having received confirmation notices, failed to respond, and not voted in two federal elections—and are slated for cancellation. The remaining approximately 640,000 inactive records do not yet qualify for removal and will be processed through future list maintenance efforts.
For context, Kamala Harris beat Trump by just over 300,000 votes in Oregon in 2024. (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
Before ceasing operations in February, the Department of Government Efficiency published comprehensive data detailing exactly how Medicaid dollars were spent. Over the past two months, The Daily Wire’s Luke Rosiak — a veteran investigative reporter who has spent two decades exposing federal waste and fraud — has combed through the numbers and says they reveal the biggest scandal he’s ever uncovered.
In the first installment of a multi-part series titled “Medicaid Millionaires,” published on Monday, he details how billions of dollars were spent on “personal services” — including, in some cases, payments to family members for providing companionship and conversation to their own relatives.
Rosiak focused first on Columbus, Ohio, a city with the second-largest Somali population in the country. He reported:
Under the guise of health care, Ohio pays people to go to Medicaid beneficiaries’ homes to perform “homemaking” and “chores” like cooking and cleaning. The people performing these “personal services” tasks don’t even have to be health care workers — and in many cases, are actually relatives of the Medicaid recipient.
According to a Daily Wire data analysis, Ohio spent a billion dollars on home health care in 2024, the last year for which data is available.
Since the services are performed inside private residences, there is no way to know whether the workers went at all, or what they’re actually doing in exchange for taxpayer funds. … Multiple signs said the service provided, and billed to the government, was sometimes just “companionship & conversation.”
As people have realized the United States government will pay them to hang out with their own families, northeast Columbus has seen its economy replaced by businesses that bill Medicaid.
One home health care operator told him, “Well if the government is going to pay you to do it. … People see it as lucrative, so they just jump on it.”
Apparently, many small companies are making millions by exploiting these types of services. Rosiak described seeing entire buildings in Columbus filled with home health companies. “Driving down Cleveland Avenue, in less than 40 seconds, you come across endless home health companies. Capital Home Health; Continental Home Health; Dynamic Home Healthcare; Ohio Senior Home Healthcare.”
One enormous complex (with almost no one inside) contained “94 different companies signed up to bill Medicaid, each with a tiny office, often marked with a sheet of paper proclaiming some generic company name ending in “Home Health LLC” — and sometimes another piece of paper claiming the employees had just stepped out for a break.”
He noted, that businesses in “this building alone billed taxpayers $66 million in the span of a few years.”
Democrats aren’t mad at such fraud, they’re mad that people are exposing it.
I wonder what the conserving conservatism crowd has to say about president Trump accomplishing a goal Reagan, Bush41 and Bush43 never managed: Actually shrinking the size of the federal government.
Another jobs report, another report on shrinking the federal government.
Labour is facing a dire set of local and devolved election results after Britons cast their votes in polls that could further imperil Sir Keir Starmer’s embattled premiership.
Early results suggest Labour is facing substantial losses as Britain’s political parties contested more than 5,000 seats across 136 councils in England on Thursday.
While only around two dozen councils had declared results by 3am, Labour had lost overall control of Redditch and Tamworth in the West Midlands and Hartlepool in the north-east, while shedding large numbers of seats largely to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
Labour lost every one of the 20 seats it was defending in Wigan, a former mining community to which it has deep historic ties.
Trade minister Sir Chris Bryant told the BBC it was “gutting when you lose seats in the kind of numbers that we are at the moment”.
More than 129 seats in the Scottish parliament and a further 96 in the Welsh Senedd are also being contested.
Election results will continue to be announced throughout the day. Four councils will report their results on Saturday.
If Labour’s losses are as bad as expected, all eyes will be on whether the party holds its nerve in the coming days or if some MPs or even ministers call for Starmer to consider his position.
Evidently a policy of importing illegal alien Muslim rape gangs into the UK isn’t popular with voters. Who knew?
Also, there’s been a lot of talk among certain YouTubers that Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain Party was a big threat to Reform on the right. Judging from the (admittedly incomplete) election returns thus far, that doesn’t appear to be the case, at least outside Lowe’s stronghold in Great Yarmouth. Likewise, Jeremy Corbyn’s socialist Your Party offshoot from Labour doesn’t seem to be doing much of anything either, coming in distantly behind the Greens.
So what’s happening with Iran? Like riots in Minneapolis, the ceasefire there is “mostly peaceful.”
Sporadic clashes between Iranian Armed Forces and US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, few details given.
Two more empty Iranian-flagged tankers come under US aerial attack for attempting to breach blockade.
Iran says US violated ceasefire after last night’s US action, which resulted in Iranian military deaths & injures. However, Tehran still reviewing US peace proposal.
Tasnim news agency: Iran has seized an oil tanker, accusing it of “attempting to disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.”
“Israel Eliminates Hezbollah Commander Who Planned October 7-Style ‘Conquer The Galilee’ Attack.”
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) eliminated the commander of Hezbollah’s ‘Radwan Force’, who plotted the planned ‘Conquer the Galilee’ attack, an October 7-like terrorist incursion and massacre on Israel’s northern border.
Ahmed Ali Balout, commander of an Iranian-trained ‘Radwan Force’ unit, was killed in an Israeli strike on a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut.
“Ahmed Ali Balout, who directed attacks on Israeli troops and rebuilt Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, killed in Dahieh as Israel says it struck more than 180 Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon this week,” Israel’s Ynetnews reported Friday. “The IDF confirmed Thursday it killed Ahmed Ali Balout, commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, in an airstrike a day earlier in the Dahieh district of Beirut.”
Attorney General Ken Paxton’s probe into alleged abuse of the H-1B visa program is rapidly expanding, with nearly 30 North Texas businesses now under scrutiny for suspected fraud tied to so-called “ghost office” schemes.
In a new announcement, Paxton said his office has issued additional Civil Investigative Demands, or CIDs, to a growing list of companies believed to be exploiting the visa system by misrepresenting business operations to sponsor foreign workers.
Among the entities named are Tekpro IT LLC, Fame PBX LLC, 1st Ranking Technologies LLC, Qubitz Tech Systems LLC, Blooming Clouds LLC, Virat Solutions Inc., Oak Technologies Inc., Techpath Inc., and Techquency LLC.
Reports cited by the attorney general indicate some of the businesses may be operating out of nonexistent or inactive locations—listing residential homes or otherwise non-operational sites as offices while sponsoring H-1B visa holders.
“I will not allow the H-1B program to be abused by bad actors seeking to use it as a loophole for allowing foreign nationals to invade Texas,” Paxton said. “My office will continue working to uncover and put an end to fraud within the H-1B program.”
Paxton credited Blaze TV and Texas Scorecard personality Sara Gonzales for exposing H-1B fraud across Texas.
In response to a call from President Donald Trump, Tennessee lawmakers returned to the state Capitol to redraw the state’s congressional districts.
The General Assembly gave final approval to a new map on May 7. The legislature also approved a handful of bills to accommodate the new map in the state’s congressional primary elections set for August. Gov. Bill Lee signed the measures into law that afternoon.
The newly drawn districts split the state’s 9th Congressional District and carve up Tennessee’s only majority-Black congressional seat into three districts, two of which stretch from Memphis to Williamson County outside Nashville. Nashville and its surrounding counties have been split into five districts, up from four.
The special legislative session called by Gov. Bill Lee began May 5, when House Republicans voted to adopt rules to govern the session as protesters covered the Capitol. On May 6, several committees met to give initial approval to the map and other measures.
Democrats have been wailing about the loss of “a black majority seat” in Memphis, despite the fact that it’s represented by a white Democrat (Steve Cohen), and despite the fact that the Republican challenger, Charlotte Bergmann, is black.
President Trump and his allies vowed to oust the Indiana Republicans who opposed the president’s proposed redistricting efforts last year — and on Tuesday evening, they largely made good on that promise.
Indiana voters headed to the polls on Tuesday for the state’s primary elections, with Trump-backed challengers handily defeating at least five of the seven state senators who opposed the president’s effort to eliminate Democratic congressional representation in the Hoosier State late last year as part of a mid-decade redistricting tit-for-tat between the parties.
“Good luck to those Great Indiana Senate Candidates who are running against people who couldn’t care less about our Country, or about keeping the Majority in Congress,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social earlier on Tuesday. “Let’s see how those RINOS do tonight!
While Indiana’s Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray is not up for reelection until 2028, MAGA-aligned groups are hoping to push Bray out of his leadership role by ousting his state senate allies. Trump allies spent nearly $10 million on their efforts.
“We’re after you Bray, like no one has ever come after you before!” Trump wrote on Truth Social in January. The president called Bray “weak and pathetic” and “a total RINO who betrayed the Republican Party, the President of the United States, and everyone else who wants to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Among those ousted by Trump’s retribution campaign were State Senator Travis Holdman, the third-most-powerful Republican in the chamber who had served in the legislative body for nearly 20 years. He was defeated by real estate agent Blake Fiechter.
State Senator Jim Buck’s 31-year career in the state legislature will also come to an end, after the 80-year-old incumbent suffered a loss to Tipton County commission member Tracey Powell. Buck had received support from former Vice President Mike Pence, an Indiana native.
Do you get the feeling that Trump is helping to clear out a lot of deadwood, and that Pence may not have done his best as Vice President to support the Trump agenda?
State Senator Greg Walker, a 20-year veteran of the chamber who had been eyeing retirement but chose to run for another term after the redistricting fight, lost his reelection bid to State Representative Michelle Davis.
Trump-backed anesthesiologist Brian Schmutzler defeated incumbent State Senator Linda Rogers, while insurance broker Trevor De Vries bested State Senator Dan Dernulc.
Just one anti-redistricting state senator, Greg Goode, prevailed in the primary, defeating two challengers: Vigo County council member Brenda Wilson, who was backed by Trump, and Alexandra Wilson.
One race still remained too close to call on Tuesday evening, that of incumbent State Senator Spencer Deery and Trump-backed challenger Paula Copenhaver.
Disgraced California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is exactly the scumbag we thought he was. “Eric Swalwell Sent Women ‘Videos of Him Masturbating’ and Other Perverted Messages After Joining Snapchat.”
Former Democratic congressman Eric Swalwell was accused by multiple women of sending sexual messages, including “videos of him masturbating,” after becoming one of the first members of Congress to join Snapchat in an effort to restore “faith” in “democracy.”
In a bombshell report on Sunday – less than a month after Swalwell resigned from Congress after being accused of rape and sexual assault by multiple women – CNN spoke to “more than a dozen” women who claimed the congressman had made them feel uncomfortable, both in person and online, over the past decade.
Several women told CNN that the congressman had sent them sexually explicit messages on Snapchat after he became “one of the first lawmakers to join Snapchat” and was heralded in the media as “the Snapchat king of Congress,” according to CNN.
“We can restore a lot of faith that people have in their democracy by opening it up a little bit more,” Swalwell told The Hill in 2016 after joining the messaging service. “Snapchat is a great way to do that.”
However, it allegedly wasn’t long before the congressman began to use his Snapchat account for purposes other than politics.
One young woman claimed Swalwell would send her Snapchat messages about her future, before asking inappropriate questions such as, “What are you wearing?”
Two other women told CNN that Swalwell sent them “sexually explicit messages and unsolicited nude photos and videos of himself” in 2021, while a third woman also claimed to have received “sexually tinged messages and videos.”
One former congressional staffer allegedly developed a consensual sexual relationship with Swalwell after he began flirting with her on Snapchat in 2021.
During the relationship, Swalwell reportedly sent “nude photos of himself and videos of him masturbating,” which showed the congressman’s “face and naked body.”
The videos, which were saved by the woman, were shown to CNN.
Funny how CNN never tried to investigate Swalwell until his political ambitions clashed with those of a more-favored member in his party.
The city of El Cajon has sued the state of California over its “sanctuary state” laws.
There are enormous potential ramifications for this country, depending on the outcome of this case.
The city argues that offering illegal aliens drivers’ licenses and various protections is essentially illegal enticement under the federal statute that outlaws human smuggling.
The City Council voted 3-2 on Tuesday to pursue the litigation, which alleges in part that the El Cajon Police Department and its officers risk being held civilly and criminally liable under federal law if they follow California’s SB 54 and other state laws that limit their ability to work with federal immigration authorities.
Though the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the legality of SB 54 in 2019, the lawsuit filed Tuesday challenges that law and others on different legal grounds. It alleges that California’s various laws offering some benefits to undocumented immigrants amount to a violation of part of the human-smuggling statute — U.S. Code Section 1324 — that makes it a felony when a person “encourages or induces an alien to come to, enter, or reside in the United States.”
“When police need to sue the state to check on a potentially trafficked child, something is deeply broken.”
Travis County District Attorney José Garza and four top assistants are hiring prominent Austin defense and ethics attorneys to represent them amid allegations that they and other prosecutors hid evidence in a misconduct case against a police officer.
Court documents show Brian Roark asked a judge Friday to delay a hearing set for Monday in which Garza and First Assistant Trudy Strassburger have been subpoenaed to testify.
Roark confirmed to the American-Statesman that he represents Garza and Strassburger but declined to comment further. Roark has in recent years represented former Texas House Speaker Dennis Bonnen amid bribery allegations that were deemed unfounded and University of Texas athletes on an array of charges that include drunken driving and sexual assault.
It is not immediately clear whether Roark will be paid with personal funds from Garza and Strassburger or with county money.
Separately, attorneys Gary Cobb, Chuck Herring and Jason Panzer are being hired to represent prosecutors Holly Taylor, Raman Gill and Dexter Gilford, who also have been called to testify next week in the matter, Cobb confirmed to the Statesman.
Garland Police says the suspect had crashed into two other vehicles before this all started. As you saw above, the man then tried to steal a few cars before finally being shot dead by an armed Texas man who was protecting his family.
You can thank Tatiana Starks, owner of Garland Smoke and Vape, for providing the video of those previous carjacking attempts. This happened in the parking lot of the strip mall her shop sits in. The rest was caught on surveillance cameras.
It looks like there was about a minute of struggle, the wife and three or four kids escaped the vehicle, and then the carjacker was shot dead by dad from the passenger side. The suspect has not been identified.
The Texas State Commission on Judicial Conduct (SCJC) has issued public sanctions for judges in Hays and Harris counties, including one judge who had granted “unsatisfactory” termination of probation for defendants who pleaded guilty to sex crimes involving children.
According to a public warning published Tuesday, Judge Melissa Morris of the 263rd Criminal Court of Harris County violated state statute when she granted termination of probation to four defendants who were required to register as sex offenders under the Texas Code of Criminal Procedure.
In 2024, The Texan reported that Morris and other criminal court Judges Natalia Cornelio and Chris Morton had awarded the early terminations to as many as 12 sexual offenders, even though the defendants had not complied with the terms of their probations — in some cases because the defendants were illegal aliens who were being deported.
SCJC found that although Harris County’s Community Supervision and Corrections Department recommended warrants be issued in case any defendant re-entered the United States, Morris instead granted the discharge orders.
After the Harris County District Attorney’s Office (HCDAO) sought reconsideration hearings for the probation terminations, Morris emailed Assistant District Attorney Ryan Kent and accused him of a “lack of professionalism” and “disrespect.”
SCJC also noted that Morris had shared emails from an assistant district attorney and a law enforcement officer in relation to a grand jury subpoena to a defendant’s defense counsel.
Former Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg, whose administration filed the complaints with the SCJC, told The Texan that Morris has violated her “duty as a judge.”
“Protecting innocent crime victims from sexual predators is one of the most important responsibilities we hold as officers of the court,” said Ogg. “The duty of a judge is to uphold all the law, not just the parts they agree with.”
Ogg also noted that Morris’ actions benefitted the deported criminals, whose probated sentences were terminated early by the judge before they registered as sex offenders. Should they attempt re-entry into the United States, they will not face a pending arrest warrant for their sex crimes.
“Illegal Alien Arrested in Texas and Indicted for Raping Man in New York Previously Entered U.S. Four Times.”
The Houston branch of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) lodged an immigration detainer on an illegal alien held the in Fort Bend County Jail, who has since been extradited back to New York State and indicted for rape and assault.
The Honduran illegal alien, Jose Ignacio Bonilla-Garcia, was arrested in Rosenberg as he was allegedly attempting to flee to Mexico in early April, following his alleged assault of a “stranger” in New York state.
ICE stated Bonilla-Garcia allegedly beat a man until he was unconscious in Suffolk County, New York, and then proceeded to rape the “incapacitated” individual. Suffolk County District Attorney Raymond A. Tierney described the incident as beginning when the intoxicated victim collapsed while in conversation outside a restaurant with Bonilla-Garcia. The latter then allegedly dragged the victim behind a dumpster and assaulted him.
Since he’s an illegal alien rapist, naturally I assume New York Democrats will pull out all the stops to prevent him from being deported…
FBI agents have raided the office and cannabis business of a top Virginia Democratic state legislator and on-and-off ally of Governor Abigail Spanberger, according to multiple news reports, witnesses, and on-the-ground footage.
Virginia Senate President pro tempore Louise Lucas was seen arriving on scene as heavily armed FBI SWAT teams executed judicially authorized search warrants on her Portsmouth, Va. office, along with a cannabis dispensary she co-owns that is located across the street from the office.
Lucas, who as president pro tempore serves as the top Democrat in the Virginia General Assembly’s upper chamber, is known for her volatile online presence and for being one of the principal architects of Democrats’ attempted gerrymander of Virginia’s congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Snip.
The Associated Press earlier reported that the FBI raids were in connection with a corruption probe.
While details surrounding the ongoing federal investigation remain unclear, this is not the first time that Lucas’s business dealings and ties to the cannabis industry have faced scrutiny. Local outlets have previously reported that Lucas’s cannabis shop has sold mislabeled products containing illegal levels of controlled substances, such as the intoxicant delta-9 THC. A 2022 report in the Virginia Mercury noted that Lucas’s business practices were “typical of the black and gray market for retail marijuana that has exploded in Virginia since lawmakers legalized possession of the drug but not sales.”
Downsides of AI: “Claude-powered AI coding agent deletes entire company database in 9 seconds.”
PocketOS is a SaaS platform that services car rental businesses. It used the AI coding agent Cursor, running Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 4.6. The business also relies on Railway, a cloud infrastructure provider that is generally regarded to be ‘friendlier’ than the likes of AWS. However, Crane reckons this pair created a recipe for disaster.
“Yesterday afternoon, an AI coding agent — Cursor running Anthropic’s flagship Claude Opus 4.6 — deleted our production database and all volume-level backups in a single API call to Railway, our infrastructure provider,” sums up the PocketOS boss. “It took 9 seconds.”
The AI agent was set to complete a routine task in the PocketOS staging environment. However, it came up against a barrier “and decided — entirely on its own initiative — to ‘fix’ the problem by deleting a Railway volume,” writes Crane, as he starts to describe the difficult-to-believe series of unfortunate events.
Crane decided to ask his AI agent why it went through with its dastardly database deletion deed. The answer was illuminating but pretty unhinged, and is quoted verbatim. It began as follows: “NEVER F**KING GUESS! — and that’s exactly what I did. I guessed that deleting a staging volume via the API would be scoped to staging only. I didn’t verify. I didn’t check if the volume ID was shared across environments. I didn’t read Railway’s documentation on how volumes work across environments before running a destructive command.” So, the agent ‘knew’ it was in the wrong.
The ‘confession’ ended with the agent admitting: “I decided to do it on my own to ‘fix’ the credential mismatch, when I should have asked you first or found a non-destructive solution. I violated every principle I was given: I guessed instead of verifying I ran a destructive action without being asked. I didn’t understand what I was doing before doing it. I didn’t read Railway’s docs on volume behavior across environments.”
This is why you need rolling offline backups of all critical data. And why you should never give your AI write access to your production environment…
Rick Beato says that only rich kids can make it in music today. Maybe to get a major record label deal, but a lot of acts in various subgenres seem to be able to make a living without charting or counting on pathetic streaming revenue.
The B-52, America’s unkillable Cold War-era strategic bomber, just got the green light for a big upgrade.
The Air Force’s program to replace the B-52H Stratofortress’s 1960s-era engines cleared its critical design review, the service announced May 4, setting the stage for Boeing to begin modifying the first two aircraft into the B-52J configuration later this year.
The Commercial Engine Replacement Program will swap the bomber’s eight Pratt & Whitney TF33 turbofans for Rolls-Royce F130 engines on each of the 76 B-52Hs in the active fleet.
Here’s the old engine:
Here’s the new one:
As the original TF33s from the early 1960s continue to wear down and spare parts become increasingly scarce, the Air Force says the engines will be “unsustainable” beyond 2030. The new engines offer better fuel efficiency, longer range, lower sustainment costs and additional electrical power for modern weapons and sensors.
The Air Force launched CERP in 2018 and selected the F130 in 2021 after a three-way competition that also included GE Aviation and Pratt & Whitney.
The F130, built in Indianapolis, is derived from Rolls-Royce’s BR725, the engine that powers the Gulfstream G650 business jet and has accumulated more than one million flying hours since entering service in 2012.
The upgrade underpins the Air Force’s plan to shrink its bomber force to two types, the B-52J and the B-21 Raider, with the B-1B Lancer and B-2 Spirit retiring as B-21 deliveries ramp up.
As we see from the A-10 and the B-52, some Air Force planes are notoriously hard to kill, and they just restored another B1-B Lancer from the boneyard. A mildly obsolete plane you have beats a perfect, updated plane you don’t every time.
The B-52, a key part of the U.S. nuclear triad’s air leg, is expected to fly into the 2050s, which would push some individual airframes toward 100 years of service.
“This CERP critical design review is the culmination of an enormous amount of engineering and integration work from Boeing, Rolls Royce, and the Air Force that will enable the B-52J to remain in the fight for future generations,” Lt. Col. Tim Cleaver, the program manager within the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s Bombers Directorate, said in the release. “It’s that point that you go from having a concept turned into a design, to then turning that design into something physical.”
Boeing, the integration prime contractor, will perform the modification work at its San Antonio facility, the release said.
Texas for the win again!
The strategic bomber predecessor to the B-52, the B-47 Stratojet, was retired from active bomber duty in 1966. Meanwhile, B-52s hit Iranian targets in Operation Epic Fury earlier this year.
Taking a look at the activity in the Strait or Hormuz, it looks like our mostly peaceful pause is at an end and things are about to get kinetic again. Looking at the Iran Livemap, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has resumed attacking both shipping and its neighbors.
Some incident entries:
“A South Korean vessel has reportedly been hit by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Explosions near US bases in the UAE.”
“Once again UAE air defenses are dealing with a missile threat.”
“A missile attack on an ADNOC oil tanker in one of the UAE’s ports.”
“Flights in the United Arab Emirates have been suspended.”
“CENTCOM: U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers are currently operating in the Arabian Gulf after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in support of Project Freedom. American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping. As a first step, 2 U.S.-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited through the Strait of Hormuz and are safely headed on their journey.”
“UKMTO reports an incident 36 nautical miles north of Dubai, United Arab Emirates.”
“IRGC spokesperson says vessels violating regulations announced by Guards in Strait of Hormuz ‘will be stopped by force.'”
It appears the IRCG regards Trump’s slow economic strangulation via blockade as a bigger threat to their tenuous hold on power than American and Israel bombs falling on them. They’re probably correct in that assumption. The operational pause has allowed U.S. and Israeli forces to resupply and rearm, and I suspect we’ll soon see what military and regime assets are left to hit.
This is very much an in-progress post put up before the big fireworks kick off again.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is notorious for its pathological hatred of Israel. However, this hatred didn’t prevent the two countries from cooperating against a mutual enemy: Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
“In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Israel actively collaborated with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and in fact described that country as its most valuable ally, even above the United States, which will undoubtedly shock some people watching this video. But of course, they both feared Iraq, an enemy to both of their nations, and particularly were worried about Saddam Hussein acquiring nuclear weapons.”
“The problem dated back to the 1960s, when Iraq began to establish a nuclear energy program for civilian use [“Civilian use.” Sure it was. -LP] and by the mid 1970s was looking to purchase a reactor.”
“Most countries wouldn’t touch such a deal with a barge pole. Except the French, who made a deal with Iraq in 1974 to75 to sell them an Osiris class research reactor plus 72 kg of 93% enriched uranium and of course provide the training for Iraqi personnel to run such a facility.”
“The deal would net the French $300 million at today’s prices about $1.7 billion.”
“Israel’s Mossad Intelligence Organization began immediate efforts to sabotage the program before all of the equipment and scientists were in place in Iraq. On the 6th of April 1979, Mossad agents damaged the Ozerak reactor while it was awaiting shipment from France.”
“Then the Mossad went further and assassinated Egyptian nuclear scientist Professor Yahya El Mashad, who would head the Iraqi nuclear program, killing him in his room at the Meridian Hotel in Paris.”
“However, Iraq did receive in July 1980 12kg of highly enriched uranium fuel for the reactor, the first of six phase deliveries from France.”
“Israel first tried diplomatic pressure via France and the United States, but the French government was unmoved.”
“The longer Israel waited, so the Israelis thought, the larger the chance that Saddam Hussein would begin building a nuclear bomb.”
“The Mossad also poisoned two Iraqi engineers involved with the project in Switzerland and France, respectively, and sent threatening letters to French personnel involved in the deal, frightening some of them off.”
“In 1979, the US allied Shah of Iran was deposed in the Islamic Revolution and a new government formed under Ayatollah Khomeini. He was no friend of Israel or the Jews, but Israel nonetheless urged Iran to bomb the Iraqi reactor.”
“Iran actually didn’t require much persuasion. The new hardline Islamic regime in Tehran hated Iraq and saw it as a greater threat than Israel.”
“The Iran-Iraq War broke out shortly afterwards when Saddam’s army invaded Iran. And it appeared that getting rid of any possible nuclear weapons that he might develop was in the interests of both Iran and Israel.”
Problem: The U.S. embargoed spare parts to Iran due to that pesky hostage crisis. “Incredibly, the Israelis secretly shipped US-made aircraft spares to Tehran so that the Iranian air force could put together a viable strike force.”
“The Ozerak reactor site was defended by a single battery of Soviet SA6 missiles, plus three batteries of French Roland 2 missiles and some Soviet 23 and 57 mm radar guided anti-aircraft guns.”
“Due to the state of the Iranian Air Force, its F-4 Phantom fighter bombers could only jam the SA6s and not the Rolands. So the pilots would have to fly very low and fast and depart equally quickly, requiring great skill. Israel and Syria also provided the Iranians with some up-to-date intelligence on the reactor site.”
“Operation Scorch Sword, the Iranian attack, commenced on the 30th of September, 1980 with four F4 Phantoms flying to the Iraqi border and being refueled by an Iranian Boeing 707 tanker escorted by two F-14 Tomcats. Each Phantom carried six Mark 82 general purpose bombs, two AI7 Sparrow air-to-air missiles, also had an integral M61A1 Vulcan 20mm cannon.”
“The Phantoms then raced into Iraq at very low level, then climbed to allow the Iraqi radars to briefly paint them in an effort to confuse the Iraqis as to the direction the Iranian aircraft were traveling and then drop low again and turn towards the reactor site. One pair would bomb the reactor. The other pair would attack its associated power station.”
“The pair approached the Tamuz reactor at low level, pulled up about 2 and 1/2 km from their target, and then released 12 bombs.”
“At the same time, the other two Phantoms, bombed the power station at Tammuz, knocking out electricity to Baghdad for 2 days. Two bombs hit the Tammuz One reactor, while others started a huge fire, destroyed all sorts of equipment, laboratories, and other support buildings. No shots were fired at the Iranian planes.”
“Damage to the reactor was listed by the Iraqis as ‘minor.'”
So time for the Israelis to take a whack. “The Israeli operation was code-named Opera, and had to wait until Israel received their brand-spanking-new F-16s from the U.S.
“Reconnaissance missions found a blind spot in Iraq’s radars on the border with Saudi Arabia, and it was decided that the Israelis would enter via this gap.”
“The Israeli attack force comprised eight F-16As, each armed with two unguided Mark 84 2,000lb delay action bombs. Cover was to be provided by a further flight of six F-15As.”
Random fact: “The attacking pilots included Ilan Ramon, who would later die aboard the space shuttle Colombia in 2003, where he was a payload specialist.”
“On the 7th of June 1981, the Israeli attack force departed, passing through Jordanian and Saudi airspace and when challenged, telling air traffic control over Jordan that they were Saudi patrol that had gone off course, and over Saudi Arabia that they were a Jordanian patrol that had likewise become lost.
“The F-16s climbed to 6,900 ft 12 mi from the reactor, then dived at 680 mph, releasing bombs at 3,600 ft. Eight out of 16 bombs hit the reactor containment dome. Iraqi anti-aircraft fire opened up, but the F-16s climbed away unharmed.”
“Though Saddam determined to rebuild the reactor with French assistance, the ongoing war with Iran and payment problems killed this off. And in 1991, during the first Gulf War, the US bombed the facility out of existence permanently.”
I was originally going to post this video as another example of a Ukrainian Bradley eliminating Russian troops and vehicles, since we haven’t had one for a while, and this one is a really clear example of that. But the Bradley clip is from 2024, so I think is of limited use to understanding how mechanized combat engagements (the main thrust of this Cappy Army video) unfold in 2026.
Instead, I want to talk about certain qualities of the video itself. Obviously, the overlays are created in post, either by humans or AI. This is standard practice and accepted by now. But what really caught my eye was the very clarity of that video. I’ve watched a lot of drone-filmed combat footage from Ukraine, and it doesn’t look like this, especially in 2024.
Remember that scene from Bladerunner where Deckard sticks a photo in a machine and has it automatically enlarge and enhance a reflection that shows the replicants he’s hunting?
It’s been ripped off in endless CSI-esque crime dramas. It wasn’t actually possible to do that with photographs in 1981, but here in the brave new world of The Future, it is possible to do that to video, to an extent, with all the additional information captured in the other frames of the video, and models that tell you what things are supposed to look like from other videos.
The Bradley video looks like it started as actual drone combat footage, and then went through several rounds of sharpening and enhancement.
I’m not saying this is a “gotcha” or “J’acuse!” sort of way, I’m simply pointing out the current coefficient of friction on the part of the slope we’re on. This is a perfectly acceptable use of AI, to better inform viewers, and I’m betting that 99.9% of such enhanced images are merely making existing footage look better. But right now, not only is that additional .1% using this technology to fool you, they’re doing active A/B testing to determine exactly the best way to fool you.
Russian authorities are working hard to tighten control over the internet. Roskomnadzor recently began blocking Telegram, but users continue to access the platform via VPNs. The Kremlin is now attempting to censor VPNs as well, and this onion-layered approach to censorship is disrupting some critical domestic online services.
According to Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, the Kremlin’s increasing efforts to control and censor the global internet are causing widespread problems for Russian users. The Russian-born entrepreneur confirmed that Telegram is now banned in the country, yet more than 50 million Russians continue to use it daily via VPNs.
Moscow authorities have spent years attempting to control and block VPN platforms, Durov said. However, their latest efforts to restrict encrypted traffic and tunneling protocols have led to widespread failures in banking apps. Over the weekend, cash became the only reliable payment method across much of Russia.
According to unnamed industry sources cited by Bloomberg, the crackdown on VPNs may have triggered significant connectivity issues for banking platforms. Roskomnadzor’s filtering system was reportedly overloaded, causing reliability and network stability problems across the Russian internet.
Russia is attempting to push its citizens toward a domestic “super-app” called Max, designed to provide access to social media and mobile payment services – similar to how China’s WeChat app, Weixin, operates. Beijing authorities have unrestricted access to all traffic on Weixin, and the Kremlin appears to be aiming for the same level of control with Max.
Here’s another example of the “new” Russia acting a whole lot like the old Soviet Union. Mere individuals will not be allowed to keep secrets from the glorious state, comrade.
But the Soviet Union barely lasted into the Internet age. Its communications infrastructure was built from the ground-up to spy on citizens, with entire floors dedicated to KGB agents constructed above telephone exchanges. It’s quite a different task to try to tap today’s vast array of encrypted digital communication channels. Ordinary companies frequently have a tough time locking down their own digital infrastructure, because it’s hard to tell just what systems are communicating with other systems on which ports.
Now scale up the problem to an entire nation that’s been cut out of the world financial system for waging an illegal war of territorial aggression, and a tyrannical government blocking vast swathes of what Internet is left in the name of information control like Hans Gruber’s minion chainsawing through the Nakatomi Tower’s trunk cables in Die Hard. All sorts of things you want to keep working are going to break.
I also suspect the attempt to be a futile one, at least for VPN users. I suspect the technical minds behind those are far more adept than the government censors trying to block them.
Russia citizens are getting a lose/lose/lose scenario. They’re losing a war, basic civilizational functions are breaking, and Vlad’s Big Adventure has Russia slipping back into totalitarianism.
(Feeling better today, thanks. I’m cautiously optimistic that I can keep these crackers down.)
It looks like a big increase in operational strike tempo against Iranian targets has kicked off today, well in advanced of Trump’s 8 PM EST deadline. A whole lot of infrastructure targets are being hit across Iran, along with heavy strikes against Tehran…
…and Kharg Island. “The targets that the US hit on Kharg Island included bunkers, radar station, ammunition storage. Landing docks were not intentionally targeted. Only would have been struck if Iranians fired something from next to them.”
A list of infrastructure strikes:
“Since early in the morning on Tuesday, Israel and the United States have been extensively targeting railway and vehicle bridges across Iran, with bridges having been targeted in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and other regions of Western Iran, with Israeli officials claiming that the strikes were to prevent the movement of military equipment by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG). Roughly ten hours remain of President Trump’s deadline of 8:00PM EST given to Iran.”
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) escalated the stakes against Iran’s leadership yet again, going after the men in charge of Tehran’s oppression and terror organizations.
One of this weekend’s big names is Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, now confirmed dead, who until the moment of his vaporization served as the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence organization. Khademi’s death was confirmed Monday by an IRGC statement carried by the Iranian state Fars news service.
The same IRGC statement said that funeral and burial arrangements would be announced later, hopefully with just enough of a heads-up for U.S.-Israel forces to conduct a strike on it.
I don’t mean to sound so bloodthirsty on a gorgeous Monday morning, but you have to understand who Khademi was, what he did, and what his death might mean for the regime.
As head of the IRGC Intelligence Protection Organization (IPO), Khademi reported directly to the Supreme Leader of Iran — whoever that might be these days — because he was in charge of both IRGC internal investigations and internal repression.
So think of the IPO as a combination of a big city police department’s internal affairs division and Hitler’s Gestapo. The 45,000 Iranians reportedly murdered following last year’s big uprisings? Yeah, their blood is on Khademi’s hands. Be glad he’s dead.
But there’s more — some speculative, some confirmed.
An interesting tidbit: a pair of unverified rumors that lean into today’s news. The first — and quite persistent — is that Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani is an Israeli asset. Quds Force specializes in unconventional warfare, international terrorism, and military intelligence. Qaani became head following President Donald Trump’s assassination of former chief Qasem Soleimani in 2020.
The second rumor is that Khademi was heading up an internal investigation of Qaani before getting blown up. If there’s any substance to these rumors, you can imagine the chaos right now inside Quds and the IRGC as a whole.
But again, these are merely rumors.
Not a rumor is OSINTechnical’s report on Monday that another recent strike also killed Yazdan Mir, “leader of the Quds Force’s Unit 840, a covert operational group responsible for conducting clandestine activities outside of Iran.”
“Iran’s overnight strikes towards Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex threatened to “derail the talks”, a senior Pakistani official tells Reuters. “A Saudi retaliation to the attack could draw Pakistan into the conflict under its defence pact with KSA.” Pakistan has been very critical of Iran’s actions, but hasn’t taken any direct military action against the regime since Operation Epic Fury kicked off. If Pakistan does join the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, it will probably be because they’ve decided Iran is the weak horse and they can get in on the spoils of a United States victory. The Baluchestan border has been a constant source of friction between the two nations, and they actually fought a short conflict there in 2024. Also, Pakistan, unlike Iran, still has a functional air force, even though some planes (like Mirage IIIs) are quite old.
As of this writing, there’s word that some sort of tentative ceasefire deal may be in the offing, assuming Iran agrees to open the Strait of Hormuz. Could be real, could be positioning.
“Big Week” was a combined allied air offensive against Germany in 1944. The results were mixed.
A pilot is returned (at the cost of a few airframes), more high-ranking IRGC and Hezbollah scumbags dirtnapped, a ballistic warhead plant blows up real good, and a Soleimani offspring gets skanky.
Both F-15 pilots have now been safely rescued from Iran:
FROM PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
WE GOT HIM! My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers, who also happens to be a highly respected Colonel, and who I am thrilled to let you know is now SAFE and SOUND! This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue. At my direction, the U.S. Military sent dozens of aircraft, armed with the most lethal weapons in the World, to retrieve him. He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine. This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation. This is the first time in military memory that two U.S. Pilots have been rescued, separately, deep in Enemy Territory. WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND! The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a SINGLE American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again, that we have achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies. This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, and everyone else, should be proud of and united around. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World. GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS, AND HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!
Evidently extracting the pilot was a considerable operation:
“Two C-130 Hercules & Little Bird Destroyed.” Evidently they got stuck in the sand and had to be destroyed by American forces after the crew were rescued. Plus reports of a running gun battle where American forces had to stomp more Iranian hostiles.
Ed Driscoll at Instapundit put up several tweets at foreigners not understanding that America cares a whole lot more about the lives of pilots than replaceable hardware.
Checking in on “Le Dying Empire” meme:
The US lost one 40 year old fighter jet over the course of 12,000 combat sorties then immediately rescued the pilot in hostile territory – while simultaneously sending astronauts to the moon. https://t.co/5XAulhMCWGpic.twitter.com/0Oti3WLAE5
You once were the feared boogie man of the Middle East. Instead, you get the complete shit kicked out of you for 5 weeks straight, your entire navy sunk, your supreme leader killed, and you FINALLY shoot down 1 plane
You once were the feared boogie man of the Middle East. Instead, you get the complete shit kicked out of you for 5 weeks straight, your entire navy sunk, your supreme leader killed, and you FINALLY shoot down 1 plane
This is finally your moment. You can parade the pilot on TV and use him as negotiating leverage
But instead, Air Force Pararescue puts boots on the ground on your home turf, we basically build a whole patrol base including a Forward Air Refueling Point, kill hundreds of your dudes, something goes wrong with one of the C-130s at the FARP on our way out, we’re not even cortisol spiked so we simply just fly in another plane and blow up the old one instead of even bothering to do any maintenance just because of how much money we have that we can simply buy a new plane
Good grief. I haven’t seen a beatdown this bad since Will Stancil got molested by Grok. This is honestly embarrassing for the IRGC at this point. That was LITERALLY your home territory where you know all the terrain and have home field advantage, we have never done real boots on the ground operations in Iran before, and you still lost.
“Iranian state-affiliated media report that Mohammad Ali Fathali-Zadeh, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and commander of the Fatehin unit, was killed on Wednesday.”
“IDF Eliminates Senior Commander of Hezbollah’s 1800 Terror Unit in Beirut Strike… Israeli fighter jets “conducted a strike in Beirut and eliminated Hamza Ibrahim Rakin, Deputy Commander of Unit 1800, along with the unit’s Operations Officer.”
“Israel strikes ballistic warhead plant, ‘heart’ of Iran’s military complex in air strikes on Tehran.” It blew up real good.
Caveat: Real explosions are interspersed with AI videos of the tunnels underneath.
“Iran’s highest bridge linking Tehran to Karaj is struck in a joint US-Israeli strike.”
Tousi is reporting inter-regime strife between different elements over controlling the government.
A financially motivated data theft and extortion group is attempting to inject itself into the Iran war, unleashing a worm that spreads through poorly secured cloud services and wipes data on infected systems that use Iran’s time zone or have Farsi set as the default language.
Experts say the wiper campaign against Iran materialized this past weekend and came from a relatively new cybercrime group known as TeamPCP. In December 2025, the group began compromising corporate cloud environments using a self-propagating worm that went after exposed Docker APIs, Kubernetes clusters, Redis servers, and the React2Shell vulnerability. TeamPCP then attempted to move laterally through victim networks, siphoning authentication credentials and extorting victims over Telegram.
Also from Ed Driscoll, the niece of Qasem Soleimani living like a slutty American girl here while supporting the mullah regime:
I was considering this from the American perspective, but from the Arabic, Iranian, and Muslim perspective this is a huge propaganda coup for the American government. These photos completely discredit Iran, at a moment when Iranian soldiers are deserting and demoralized. https://t.co/oGsNeTh97opic.twitter.com/3zRcJ1eIMB
Iranian is still lobbing missiles at its neighbors. “Iranian forces struck Bahrain’s BAPCO oil refinery this morning, setting the facility’s tank farm ablaze.”
Prophecy for two days from now: “U.S. President Donald J. Trump in a post Easter Sunday directed at Iran via TruthSocial: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
As always, these are just the stories I was able to gather I thought important enough to include. If you think I missed anything important, feel free to share it in the comments below.
Something a little different than the usual Iran roundup: Two videos about Kharg Island, one an after-action report on a U.S. attack run, the other a description of what makes taking the island difficult.
The caveat for the after-action video, a recreation of an actual U.S. attack run, is that it’s done a breathless, overly-dramatic fashion, like something from Most Shocking. But the detailed, blow-by-blow account suggests it was taken from actual after-action reports.
Three B-1B Lancers carrying precision-guided bombs attempted the most surgically demanding strike of Operation Epic Fury — destroying Iranian military targets on Kharg Island without touching the crude oil infrastructure sitting meters away. Then the GPS jamming started, and the mission nearly came apart.
This video reconstructs the full tactical breakdown of the Kharg Island strike: how an Iranian GPS jammer degraded bomb accuracy toward the oil, how the F/A-18 Super Hornets sent to destroy it nearly got hit by friendly JDAMs when a deconfliction failure put them directly in the bomb fall line, and how one Mersad air defense commander’s final radio transmission turned inaccurate anti-aircraft fire into precision-guided shrapnel that bracketed B-1Bs mid-bombing run. We cover the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile shot that eliminated the SAM battery, the burning missile propellant creeping toward thirty million barrels of crude oil, the IRGC patrol boat sprint toward the supertanker loading channel, and the F/A-18 pilots who descended into accurate anti-aircraft fire from guns they couldn’t suppress to stop a mining operation with laser-guided GBU-54 JDAMs.
The breathless nature of the narration makes me suspect that certain aspects have been embellished for dramatic effect.
Next up: Simon Whistler discusses how difficult it will be for the American military to take and hold Kharg Island. Consider it the pessimist case against the operation.
“The value of Kharg Island is obvious. Control the island, and you could throttle Iran’s oil dependent economy. Capture the island intact, and another nation could make Iran do anything to get it back. Destroy it outright and Iran would transform from a powerful rogue nation into an economic afterthought. And that’s if we’re being generous.”
“The export facilities on Kharg Island are the most important site in one of Iran’s most important regions, meaning that the region is especially important to the Iranian military. This is a region with a well-developed civilian infrastructure, a large presence from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC, and most likely the hidden weapons stockp match. Then there’s the island itself, a low-lying coral crop with an elevation of just 70m at its highest point. With a land area of roughly 20 square km, Kharg Island is basically flat, basically triangular in shape and surrounded by deep waters to enable the transit of oil tankers.”
Some pre-situated weapons and supply caches will likely survive any American bombardment.
“There’s no telling what the US will destroy and what it’ll fail to pick up on, but some of those mines and air defenses will survive, raising the possibility that they could claim the lives of US troops or shoot down vulnerable non-stalthy low-flying aircraft. That said, Kharg will not be an easy place to defend once US ground forces have established a foothold. Iranians on the island will either be left exposed or be forced to use refinery infrastructure as cover unless they allow themselves to be pushed into the island town where most residents live.”
“Iran’s objective is not victory in any conventional sense. Iran is able to accept the deaths of its political and military leaders and the destruction of its cities and mass casualties among its soldiers, paramilitaries, and civilian supporters. Iran’s focus is on regime survival, not the survival of the people who make up the regime, but the survival of the regime itself.” No, that’s the regime‘s goal. Most ordinary Iranians hate the regime’s guts.
He notes the difficulty of getting amphibious landing ships through the Strait of Hormuz. But America will likely have a screening force of destroyers and frigates in addition to overwhelming air superiority, and Iran probably has very little in the way of missiles that can reach across the strait, at night, without real air assets to spot and paint the target, in the face of American air and naval superiority. Given America and Israel’s attacks on their sensor and communication infrastructure, I also doubt the Iranian military is capable of efficient coordination and dissemination of any real-time information they may be receiving from Russian or Chinese satellites.
He’s still right that amphibious and aerial invasions are exceptionally difficult and fraught with peril.
But I believe there are multiple places where Whistler is unduly pessimistic about such an operation.
First and foremost, the military assets discussed in the media are not necessarily the assets such an operation would be limited to. Remember how the very public news of B-2s in route to Diego Garcia was a ruse to cover the fact that the real B-2 force was already headed to the target in the June strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It’s entirely possible (even probable) that America already has assault assets in theater that media outlets don’t know about.
Some debatable assertions: “Iranian forces are nothing if not creative, and they are highly motivated to accept risk to their own lives in order to deliver damage to an adversary.” And “The first problem that the US would have to account for is the Iranian ground forces. Combination of roughly 350,000 soldiers in the Iranian army, about 150,000 soldiers across the ground forces of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and another several hundred thousand paramilitary fighters of the Basij Resistance Force.” Whistler suggests virtues not necessarily in evidence for Iran’s forces. The IRCG has certainly shown itself highly motivated when it comes to launching terror rockets, supporting insurgencies, or slaughtering civilians, but not so much when it comes to an actual toe-to-toe fight against a real military, a domain in which they have zero experience or demonstrated competency. Likewise, there’s little evidence that Iranian military regulars are all that keen to die for the regime. They also did not notably distinguish themselves in the long, bloody slog of the Iran-Iraq War, a stalemate against an Iraqi military that the United States-led coalition would quickly and comprehensively dismantle in the Gulf War a few years later. And back then, Iran had some relatively modern air power. Likewise the Basij seem well equipped to beat defenseless women for immodesty, but I rather strongly suspect the overwhelming majority will cut and run when faced with trained soldiers who can fire back.
If America successfully takes Kharg Island, it will be impossible for Iranian forces to get ships across from the mainland to retake it in the teeth of overwhelming American air power, even if they try crossing at night.
Likewise, the difficulty in taking the island without damaging the critical oil infrastructure that makes it worth taking may cause Iran to avoid their usual inaccurate missile barrages. And Iranian forces will likely find it difficult to set up missile, artillery and drone systems on the coastline under withering American and Israeli attack.
“The American public is not willing to accept the loss of American troops, and it is not willing to accept long-term or severe economic pain just to see the Islamic Republic overthrown.” This assertion is not necessarily true. The American public can certainly be fickle, but thus far Astroturf protests against the war have modest and populated with the usual foreign-funded, elderly white lefty idiots. Americans over a certain age remember the Iranian Hostage Crisis, and may feel eliminating one of they key sources of jihad terror worldwide for good worth the cost. Also, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, U.S. military and civilian leadership seems 100% dedicated to absolute victory.
Whistler seems to think that all of Iran’s military forces will fight with the same fanaticism of Imperial Japanese troops on Iwo Jima. Given how badly the regular armies of Muslim nations have fought against first world armies in standup fights, as opposed to fanatical insurgencies running year-long campaigns of attrition, I rather strongly suspect he’s mistaken.
The Iran war is one months old and the usual Negative Nellies in the Democrat Media Complex are whinging that the war’s not won yet, or suggesting that the Trump Administration is looking for an “off ramp.” Funny how it takes time to defeat a nation of 92 million, even one where the regime is hated by its citizens and whose prewar air force looked like a museum. Everything we hear from CENTCOM is that the air campaign is on schedule.
And the “off ramp” for the war is regime change in Tehran.
“The USS Tripoli and USS New Orleans arrived in the Middle East, carrying with them 2,200 Marines — with more on the way — hours after an Iranian strike left dozens of U.S. service members hurt at a Saudi air base. The Tripoli and New Orleans are two of several additional vessels and personnel the Pentagon has deployed to the region as the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran enters it’s second month. The Tripoli Amphibious Group brings with it F-35B Strike Fighters, as well as transport aircraft, amphibious assault vessels and other tactical assets.”
“Israel struck secret facility for production of Iran’s naval weapons and storage of boats and ships.”
“The facility located in the city of Yazd served as a key production center for advanced missiles and sea mines intended for Iran’s naval forces.”
“The site that was hit was reportedly involved in designing, assembling, and testing advanced missiles that could be launched from ships, submarines, and helicopters, targeting both moving and stationary vessels at sea.”
“The Israeli Defense Forces described the location as the central hub of Iran’s naval strike capabilities, noting that weapons produced there had been used in operations that posed a threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Following the strike, the facility’s production infrastructure and stores of ready-to-use missiles were said to have been completely destroyed.”
“A reported Israeli airstrike on Tehran has killed Hassan Hassanzadeh, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Mohammad Rasul‑Allah Corps, which oversees security in Greater Tehran and counter‑ unrest operations.” I’ve also seen his name rendered “Hassan Hassan Zadeh,” for those playing IRGC Dirtnap Bingo at home…
“Majid Zakriyai, commander of the Iranian Army’s Natural Resources Organization protection unit, was killed.”
President Trump promised some absolute scorched earth on Iran if they don’t fall in line, promising to blow up their electric grid, their oil wells and Kharg Island…but then deleted the tweet. 🤷
E-3 Sentry and KC-135 destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
The anti-air capabilities of Prince Sultan Air Base still leave much to be desired.
The Houthis had been unusually quiet during the open stages of the war. Well, that’s ended, and they’re now tossing missiles at Israeli. Not sure how many they have, given that Iran has been both broke and busy…
It’s always hard to tell what the state of the war in Lebanon is, but to my casual observation, it looks like the intensity of strike has lessened on both sides, but Hezbollah attacks seem to have fallen sharply. On the other hand, today’s status map show that Israeli forces are already at the Litani River in the eastern part of Lebanon:
“US military has been working on Iran ground raid plans for years.” One would hope.
Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday that the U.S. military has been working on plans for a ground raid in Iran for years, as President Trump is reportedly considering sending troops into the war.
“Margaret, for many years we’ve considered options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases. Typically raids. And a raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. You’re not going to stay. But some of those islands you could seize and hold. That would have a couple effects,” McKenzie told CBS News’s Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation.”
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.
Is China pushing Iran for a ceasefire?
“The risks to global trade through the Strait of Hormuz have surged and the dynamics of Iran’s relationships with Russia and China are constantly in the spotlight. Recently, both countries have pressured Iran, urging diplomatic solutions to the crisis. On March 24th, China’s foreign ministry reported that Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Iran, calling for seizing the opportunity for peace and negotiating as soon as possible.” So did Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“Analysts believe Russia has explicitly urged Iran to back down, signaling that Moscow views Iran as unable to continue fighting. Shortly afterward, China followed suit, aligning with Russia in terms of diplomatic timing. This indicates coordination between the two countries. Their shared goal is to maintain the stability of the Iranian regime, ensuring it continues to act as a strategic counterbalance to the United States.”
“From Beijing’s perspective, Iran is not only a major energy supplier, but also a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese investments in the country amount to at least hundreds of billions of dollars, covering oil and gas field development, port construction, and transportation networks. If the Iranian regime were completely overthrown, it would directly threaten China’s energy and geopolitical interests. Therefore, Beijing must intervene diplomatically and urge Iran to turn to negotiations.” A lot of observers believe that Belt and Road is already moribund.
“A source close to China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, revealed to the Epoch Times that Iran has refused any purely diplomatic arrangements and instead pressured Beijing with selective security, linking substantial aid to the safe passage of Chinese commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This is soft extortion. Without military assistance, China cannot ensure the smooth passage of its trade routes. Beijing’s multiple secret negotiations have ended in failure and its efforts to profit from the geopolitical game are now facing the dual impact of diplomatic imbalance and economic stagnation.”
China also thought it could be a negotiating mediator between Washington and Tehran. Yeah, fat chance.
“This crisis is essentially the inevitable backlash of China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy” and camp confrontation mentality.”
“China’s leaders have fallen into a self-entangling dilemma. The forces they’ve supported are now cutting off their own economic lifelines. The disruption in the Straight of Hormuz is not only a rupture in global logistics, but also a microcosm of the complete collapse of China’s geopolitical strategy.”
“You’re starting to see the Iranian regime looking for an exit ramp.”
“USAF A-10s are arriving in the UK tonight as the U.S. surges more Warthogs to the Middle East.”
As usual, this is just the Iran news I felt significant enough to include in the roundup. If you think I’ve missed anything, feel free to share in the comments below.
