Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Texas vs. California: Summer of Bankruptcy Edition

Friday, August 10th, 2012

Time for another look at how Texas’ Red State model stacks up against California’s Blue State model, with a roundup of relevant news from the past few weeks.

  • Here’s a roundup of California’s dysfunction. Lots of tasty tidbits, including this gem: “California has both the highest state deficit in the country and the highest personal income tax.”
  • The Summer California Went Bankrupt.
  • California was counting their Facebook chickens before they hatched.
  • How California’s green energy delusions are impoverishing the entire state.
  • How California drove XCOR to Texas.
  • George Will on California’s high speed rail insanity. “At one point, an estimate of 44 million riders a year—subsequently revised downward, substantially—assumed gasoline costing $40 a gallon.”
  • California can’t even keep run it’s own prisons.
  • Texas tax revenues are up 10%.
  • Texas is going through a craft brewing boom.
  • While commuter rail isn’t cost effective in California, the Long Beach-to-Los Anegles Blue Line is good for one thing: killing people. (Hat Tip: Dwight.)
  • And while California schools are in crises to pay their bloated pensions, Beaumont’s school district actually instituted a tax cut and gave teacher’s a pay raise.
  • IowaHawk Brings The Gospel of Barack

    Monday, July 23rd, 2012

    And Lo, Iowahawk did step forth from the heavens, and deliver unto us the Book of Barack.

    And it was good.

    The Myth of “Bloated Greek Defense Spending”

    Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

    In order to divert attention away from the economic, moral, and political bankruptcy of Europe’s cradle-to-grave welfare state, some liberals, relying on figures from the Out of Our Ass Institute of Statistics, are tying to claim that Greece’s excessive spending comes from a “bloated defense budget.”

    Try again. Greece only spends 5.5% of it’s budget on defense:

    Either Europe (and the United States) must reform their runaway, bloated welfare states, or their welfare states will bankrupt their nations.

    Texas vs. California: A Quick Roundup

    Wednesday, July 11th, 2012

    Spent most of the day checking things off my list and web-surfing Creepy Pasta. So here’s a quick roundup of Texas vs. California tidbits:

  • A ballot initiative could derail the union stranglehold over California.
  • Among all states, Texas has the most adequately funded pension plan.
  • Endemic corruption in California cities.
  • California tosses another $4.7 billion down the high speed rail rathole. Hell, even Mother Jones says that it’s a money-wasting boondoggle.
  • Texas has a market that works just fine for electricity when government lets it: “California pretended to have a deregulated electricity market, but it was really a poorly designed, government-controlled system that eventually collapsed under its own weight. Texas’ economy is outperforming the rest of the country because we put fewer burdens on markets. This is why Texas has the most competitive and successful electricity market in the United States, if not the world. If we let it work, the world-class Texas electricity market will power Texas’ future.”
  • You know, if I were looking to save money, eliminating the state’s open meeting law is about the last thing I would cut. California at every level government needs more transparency, not less. (That probably true for the other 56 49 states as well.)
  • Obama continues his efforts to harsh California’s buzz by shutting down the state’s largest marijuana dispensary.
  • Finally, I want to note that Dwight has created a tag to track all mentions of the No Longer Golden State on his blog, so you can read his roundups on police incompetence, municipal corruption, and bankrupt locales such as Vernon, Bell, San Bernardino, Cudahy, Maywood, and Zalgo.
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    Austin Just Passed San Francisco (or California vs. Texas: Round 55)

    Thursday, June 28th, 2012

    Today brings news that Austin just surpassed San Francisco in population to become the 13th largest city in the country. In fact, Texas had six of the top seven fastest growing cities over the past 14 months: Round Rock, Austin, Plano, McKinney, Frisco, and Denton placed 2-7, topped only by a post-Katrina New Orleans. And at only 7,000-odd residents behind Jacksonville and Indianapolis, expect Austin to be the 11th largest city in the country the next time this list is updated.

    And that news gives me a great excuse to to another roundup of Texas vs. California!

  • “Texas has been doing very well. If you draw a triangle whose points are Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, enclosing Austin, you’ve just drawn a map of the economic and jobs engine of North America.”
  • “California may be dreaming, but Texas is working. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, from 2000 to 2010, California lost a net of 519,600 jobs while Texas gained 1,093,600 jobs.” Lots of additional statistics here make the case for the measurable superiority of Texas’ Red State model over California’s Blue State model.
  • And they brought their incomes and assets with them. And there are plenty of reasons to move to Texas:

    Lest you think this is some kind of fluke, or that taxes are not the determining factor in this “escape from NY and California,” it isn’t just Texas that is gaining all these fleeing residents. The U.S. Census reported that all of the top 15 states for population growth during the past decade are no tax or low tax states like Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Utah, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. It seems Americans are smarter than politicians give them credit for- they are voting with their feet for lower taxes, pro business attitude, and more economic freedom.

    Because no state in the union has a better economy, let’s look “up close and personal” at the Texas miracle. Texas practices what I proudly call “Wild West Cowboy Capitalism.” And it works!

    Texas has zero state income tax, zero capital gains taxes, and zero death taxes. It is a “right to work” state where employees may choose to join a union, but are never forced to. It is pro business and anti-lawyer (discouraging class action lawsuits and the first state to pass a “Loser Pays” law). Texas is also tight-fisted with welfare and entitlement benefits- unlike New York and California. The result of this limited government attitude is people with high incomes, assets, and ambition are moving into Texas, while those who lack work ethic, and feel entitled to handouts are moving out. Good riddance.

    But the most important attribute of Texas is that its constitution limits the time that politicians can meet. The Texas Legislature is limited to meeting only 4 months every other year. That pretty much explains everything. Texas and my state of Nevada have no state income taxes and the fastest growing populations in America…not in spite of, but because the politicians aren’t allowed to sit in their seats all year long thinking of new ways to re-distribute income, impede business, and destroy jobs.

  • How red tape strangles job creation in California.
  • Tort reform has resulted in a 44% increase in the number of doctor’s in Texas since 2003, or twice the population increase.
  • Texas factory orders up in May.
  • California’s pension crisis continues to fester, and Democrats appear to be unwilling to grapple with the issue. (And here’s more on the pension bomb from Walter Russell Mead.)
  • Gary Farmer, head of the Austin Economic Development Corp. tells California audience exactly how Austin lures business from their state. “The key reason for the state’s success in luring business from other locations is a better political and regulatory climate, he added. Texas has a corporate tax of 1 percent on adjusted gross receipts, while California’s is 8.84 percent of income. Texas has no personal income tax while California’s is 9.3 percent.”
  • Finally, speaking of California transplants, In-and-Out Burger is headed to Round Rock.
  • Greek Voting, Grexit, Spanic: Another EuroDebt Crises Roundup

    Friday, June 15th, 2012

    So Greeks head off to the polls this weekend to (theoretically) choose whether to muddle along with a “right” (for Greece) government that will actually attempt to carry out something vaguely resembling austerity, or for Alexis Tsipras’ far-left Syriza party, who intends to re-enact Clevon Little’s scene from Blazing Saddles: “Drop the austerity demands, or I’ll drop out of the Euro and refuse to let Germany bail us out anymore!” “Do what he says, do what he says, that Greek’s crazy!” It’s anybody’s guess whether Greece will opt to keep the farce going for another few months, or finally set the whole house of cards tumbling down.

    My guess is that there are still enough insiders who can benefits from dumping PIIGS bonds onto various sets of European taxpayers, so I expect that, one way or another, the Eurocrats will find a way to keep the charade up for another two or three months.

    In light of that, here’s a roundup of Euro debt news:

  • Forget grexit. The new hotness is Spexit and Spanic.
  • Which is why the EU just gave Spain a €100 billion life preserver. That should be good for, what, three months?
  • Which is why Fitch and Moody’s downgraded Spanish banks and debt.
  • Which is why Spanish borrowing costs have soared.
  • And Spain’s deal? Ireland wants some of that. And given the way Irish taxpayers were made to eat Anglo Irish Bank’s debts, I can’t say that I blame them.
  • And did I mention that Italy’s debt market might collapse?
  • Which explains why Italy is making noises about actual budget cuts and selling off state owned assets. Naturally, Italian unions are threaten to strike.
  • “By any objective criteria the Euro has failed, and in fact there is a looming, impending disaster.”
  • Tsipras has all but flipped Merkel off.
  • And Merkel fliped him off back.
  • Europe prepares for an influx of Greek refugees. And by “prepares,” I mean “prepares to keep them out.”
  • France and Spain want to dig faster.
  • Obama is boned because Europe is boned.
  • How the Euro will end: “Greece will simply run out of cash. Then Spain’s real-estate bubble will ruin an economy that really matters.”
  • Still not completely depressed about Europe’s prospects for escaping the trap created by their bankrupt cradle-to-grave welfare states? Well then, here’s some Mark Steyn to cruelly stomp on those last flickering embers of hope.
  • Have a happy weekend!

    While the Feiler Faster Thesis Won’t Save Obama’s Bacon

    Sunday, June 3rd, 2012

    Micky Kaus, the Thinking Conservative’s Liberal, has been suggesting that the traditional thinking that the economy must be good at least six months before an election for the President to have a chance is wrong. His contention is that the Feiler Faster Thesis, the idea that the Internet has made it possible for much rapider media cycles to change people’s minds about things more quickly, will save Obama’s bacon even if we only see notable economy recovery, say, three or four months out.

    I think the Feiler Faster Thesis is correct in general, but is mistaken in this particular instance. (And let’s temporarily ignore that I don’t think any economic recovery is in the offing at all this year.)

    The problem is that this recession has been too long and deep for the Feiler Faster Thesis to save Obama even if the economy does pick up a few months before the election. People’s feelings about the economy are deeply tied to their personal experience. The people they know who are unemployed, the prices they pay at the grocery store, the foreclosures and lingering FOR SALE signs on their own street, the business and plants closings in their own city all trump the news cycle. While the Feiler Faster Thesis may explain rapid opinion changes about Iraq or Lady Gaga, it can’t override people’s own insecurity. Nobody cares about brightening economic indicators when they can’t pay their own bills

    Which is not to say some people won’t pick up on economic news more rapidly. I’m sure that stock traders and hedge fund managers are working on faster cycles than ever before. But voters, especially independent and undecided voters, are still far more attuned to their own economic anxiety than to media narratives about a “recovery summer” they can’t see with their own eyes. Consumer confidence is considered a lagging economic indicator, which makes it precisely the sort of thing immune to the Feiler Faster Thesis.

    The only people who think the Feiler Faster Theory might save Obama’s bacon are liberals who want it to.

    EuroDoom for a Weekend in June

    Friday, June 1st, 2012

    How about a nice slice of EuroDoom to ease you into the weekend?

    With all the post-primary news, the European Debt Crises news has been chugging along for a while now. let’s look at some, shall we?

  • Heh. “The Euro cannot be destroyed by any craft that we here possess. It was made in the fires of Frankfurt. Only there can it be unmade. It must be taken deep into the heart of the European Central Bank, and cast back into the fiery chasm from whence it came!”
  • If the Leftists win the next round of voting in Greece, they promise to cancel the EU-sponsored bail-out and re-nationalize banks and companies. Way to calm the markets, dude! Not to mention reenacting Clevon Little’s famous scene from Blazing Saddles. “Experience is a dear teacher, but fools will learn from no other.”
  • “It is no longer a question of if, but how, Greece will leave the euro.”
  • The money flight from Greek banks continues.
  • And there’s this: “I can see only one mechanism that could force a collapse of the eurozone: a generalised bank run in several countries.”
  • In the showdown between Greece and the IMF, both sides deserve to lose.
  • NEIN! “Almost 80% of Germans reject eurobonds and 60% are against Greece remaining in the euro.”
  • Germany and Greece play chicken over the euro. That’s like a Mercedes playing chicken with a [ERROR: NO GREEK AUTOMAKER FOUND. ANALOGY ABORTED.]
  • Ireland votes yes on the Fiscal treaty, and then turns around with an implied “Now fork it over, Otto.”
  • Why Germany is great and Spain is totally screwed.

    It’s a winner-take-all world. Countries that do well have to do a few things extremely well. Germany makes the world’s best machine tools, some of the best heavy engineering equipment, not to mention autos. German manufacturing dominates innumerable key niches. The Spanish don’t do anything well. They haven’t done anything well since the Spanish Empire outsourced its manufacturing to Flanders in the 16th century.

  • And Spain is really screwed.
  • Which is why the Germans seem inclined to let them have more rope.
  • Though at least one source says reports of Spanish bank runs are exaggerated.
  • But even Germans are getting nervous. Also this:

    As a journalist told me yesterday, he worries whether the money in his pocket will be worth anything a year from now. Others worry about Germany’s increasingly negative image among recession-hit southern and eastern Europeans. Americans will understand this feeling well: you pay and pay to help others, only to have them turn on you in hatred and wrath, accusing you of horrible hidden motives and denouncing your selfishness.

  • Eurobills instead of Eurobonds?
  • EuroDoom #Grexit Update: Greeks Already Printing Drachmas?

    Thursday, May 24th, 2012

    Are the Greeks already printing Drachmas? So says a completely unverified tweet from a random Twitter user. Really, what better source could you possibly ask for?

    The Internet is alive with buzz on Greece exiting the Euro (see #grexit for a sip from the firehose). Sadly, there seems to be no buzz at all on reigning in the cradle-to-grave European welfare state that caused the crises in the first place.

    More Grext/European debt crises news:

  • The Fraud of Austerity.
  • The European debt crises as the world’s longest root canal with the world’s dullest dental drill.
  • How lovely: diseases unknown to Europe are making a comeback thanks to the Greek government’s colossal mismanagement.
  • Problem: Greece’s government will seize their citizens’ Euros to forcibly convert them into Drachmas. Solution: Withdraw your cash in Euros. Problem: Burgler’s have figured this out too.
  • Spain’s Prime Minster: Screw the long term Euro plans, I need the European Central Bank’s sweet low rates right now.
  • Maybe because his government just pumped €9 billion into failing banks.
  • Who’s most exposed to the grexit? Italian and Spanish insurers.
  • There’s no conflict between real austerity and pro-growth polices. Too bad no one in Europe is willing to try them.
  • Wait, The Guardian actually printed an editorial by John Bolton? (“And the moon became as blood…”) It’s a good one, too:

    “Growth” to social democrats means growth in government’s size and reach, not growth in the real economy. This approach directly contributed to our current predicament; and more of the same will only exacerbate it.

  • Euro Update: The Euro is “An Unbridled Doomsday Machine”

    Monday, May 21st, 2012

    Though markets have calmed a bit, the desperate search for a lever that will actually steer Europe away from the looming wall of a EuroCrash continues. Meanwhile, certain repeating motifs are detected:

  • “Now that times are bad, the single currency has turned into an unbridled doomsday machine. Merkel continues to insist that she’ll do whatever it takes to save Europe’s “destiny”. The continued insistence on fiscal austerity and debt repayment tells a different story. Is Germany really prepared to bankroll a wider monetary union by putting its money where its mouth is, or is the game finally up?”
  • Boris Johnson also calls the Euro a Doomsday Machine:

    Europe now has the lowest growth of any region in the world. We have already wasted years in trying to control this sickness in the euro, and we are saving the cancer and killing the patient. We have blighted countless lives and lost countless jobs by kidding ourselves that the answer to the crisis might be “more Europe”. And all for what? To salvage the prestige of the European Project, and to spare the egos of those who were wrong and muddle-headed enough to campaign for the euro.

    Johnson is right about the cancer, but slightly wrong about the cause: The European cradle-to-grave welfare state is the cancer; the Euro just made it slightly more malignant.

    But with two separate commentator’s calling the Euro a Doomsday Machine, I feel a new meme coming on:

    Not to mention much better chances of being linked by Jonah Goldberg and James Lileks…

  • Europe is awakening from its Utopian dream.
  • Greece’s invisible bank run.
  • Greece is happy to stay in the Euro…as long as other countries are footing the bill. They want more subsidies and an end to even the #fakeausterity. Not only do they want to continue to dig their deficit spending grave, they insist on digging it as fast as possible. How to get Germany to agree to continue footing the bill is the one flaw in their otherwise cunning plan…
  • Why the Blue State model doesn’t work: Cheap money doesn’t mean welfare states balance their budgets, it just means they spend that much more:

    Greece, Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Italy (and California). In each case, the promise of more bailouts and a steady flow of cheap money only produced more reckless behavior, excessive levels of government spending and record levels of debt.

    Johan Norberg, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, summarizes the results: “From 1997 to 2007, government expenditures increased by around 6 percent annually in Spain, Portugal and Greece, while population remained mostly stable. Spending increased by 4 percent a year in Italy — even while the economy shrank.”

    Consequently, “Between 2000 and 2010, Portugal increased its public debt as a share of GDP from 49 percent to 93 percent, France from 57 percent to 82 percent, Italy from 109 percent to 118 percent, and Greece from 103 percent to 145 percent,” reports Norberg.

  • Greece and California are headed down the same path to disaster, and for the same reason.
  • In addition to budget deficits, the EU suffers from a deficit of democracy:

    The European crisis is as much a crisis of politics as economics. The current paralysis of the Greek political system demonstrates the point very clearly. EU policy has actively contributed to this crisis by effectively sealing off discussion of the political problems thrown up by austerity.

    Budgetary policy is at the core of traditional democratic politics in Europe but the management of the euro zone is increasingly being effected not through democratic institutions but via a centralised and depoliticised form of technocratic fiat. The “stability” narrative has triumphed over the need for legitimacy as the crisis in Europe has deepened.

    Ivan Krastev, the eminent political scientist, argues that we have now arrived at a point where national governments have politics but are no longer in control of policy, including budgetary policy, which is moving via the fiscal treaty and other measures to the EU level.

    On the other side of this divide the European Union has policies but no politics, since decisions are increasingly being made by technocratic managers rather than directly elected representatives of the European public. The euro zone crisis has thus amplified an existing problem – the absence of both a European citizenry and a transparent European level political process.

  • A long meditation on what a Greek exit would mean involving Frankenstein, Old Maid, and David Brin.
  • The EU sends inspectors to find out why Spain’s deficits are so high. Offhand I would say the solution to the mystery might be “because they’re spending more money than they’re taking in.” Obviously such thinking will never get you anywhere in the EU civil service…