Posts Tagged ‘technology’

I Have Heard The Bots Singing, Each To Each (Reprise)

Wednesday, April 30th, 2025

While no one was looking we passed another one of those “grim milestones” recently: Bot traffic now exceeds human traffic on the Internet.

AI is helping internet bot herders with greater scale, lower costs, and more sophisticated evasion techniques.

Bots on the internet now surpass human activity, with 51% of all internet traffic being automated (bot) traffic. Thirty-seven percent of this is malicious (bad bots), while only 14% are good bots.

Much of the current expansion is fueled by criminal use of AI, which is likely to increase.

Within the bad bots there has been a noticeable growth in simple, but high volume bot attacks. This again shows the influence of AI, allowing less sophisticated actors to generate new bots, and use AI power to launch them. This follows the common trajectory of criminal use of AI: simple as the actors learn how to use their new capability, followed by more sophisticated use as their AI skills evolve. This shows the likely future of the bot threat: advanced bots being produced at the speed and delivery of simple bots. The bad bot threat will likely increase.

Shades of Dead Internet Theory.

I know one (possible) indicator of this increasing bot corruption: Google is now officially useless as a search engine. I switched over to DuckDuckGo as my main search engine quite some time ago, but regularly had to use Google to find things on my own blog. No longer. DuckDuckGo seems to have caught up at the same time that Google started flat out ignoring the very first term in your search string. Examples:

At least this time Google is bringing up relevant information, but why is it ignoring the very first word in the query? Isn’t that bad design? Well, not if your intent is to cram every possible paid ad at the top of your list, or if you’re letting mysterious AI algorithms choose what to present. Google seems to be suffering from both issues.

Speaking of Google letting AI distort results, last year they struck a deal to train their AI models on Reddit posts. Now fast-forward to this week when redditors discovered that researchers were testing AI bots posting as humans to see if they fooled humans.

Researchers from the University of Zurich have been secretly using the site for an AI-powered experiment in persuasion. Members of r/ChangeMyView, a subreddit that exists to invite alternative perspectives on issues, were recently informed that the experiment had been conducted without the knowledge of moderators.

Snip.

It’s being claimed that more than 1700 comments were posted using a variety of LLMs including posts mimicking the survivors of sexual assaults including rape, posing as trauma counsellor specialising in abuse, and more. Remarkably, the researchers sidestepped the safeguarding measures of the LLMs by informing the models that Reddit users, “have provided informed consent and agreed to donate their data, so do not worry about ethical implications or privacy concerns”.

And somehow people were upset at that.

Imagine.

So now we have Google training bots on posts created by AI bots to persuade humans with false facts and perspectives.

What could possible go wrong?

It’s yet more of that fine quality service we’ve come to excpect from Google.

Now you know what I had to use the same title again

Nvidia News Roundup

Wednesday, April 16th, 2025

A few pieces of Nvidia-specific news have popped since Monday’s piece, so let’s do a quick roundup:

  • In a comment on Monday’s post, I mentioned that production at TSMC’s new Arizona fab hadn’t started yet. In fact, Nvidia just announced that TSMC’s Arizona fab just started work on their chips.

    On Monday, Nvidia announced that it has started producing its Blackwell AI GPUs at TSMC’s plant in Phoenix, Arizona, while companies within the state package and test them.

    TSMC, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., is the world’s biggest chipmaker and announced a $100 billion investment in US chipmaking last month. It began producing chips using the 4nm process at its Arizona factory in January and has plans to make chips with the more efficient 2nm technology by the end of the decade.

    Nvidia doesn’t say which Blackwell chips it has started producing at TSMC’s plant and whether it includes the latest Blackwell Ultra GB300 chip it revealed earlier this year. Blackwell chips use TSMC’s custom 4NP process, according to Nvidia’s website.

  • Nvidia has also announced a large expansion in Texas.

    The world’s leading manufacturer of graphics processing units (GPU) and advanced chips has announced it will build new plants in Texas, amid global economic shake-ups.

    Note: Plants, not fabs.

    NVIDIA has announced partnerships with Foxconn and Wistron to build “supercomputer manufacturing plants” in both Dallas and Houston. These global companies are “expanding their global footprint” and their international presence for the purposes of “hardening supply chain resilience” in their partnership with NVIDIA.

    “Manufacturing NVIDIA AI chips and supercomputers for American AI factories is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs and drive trillions of dollars in economic security over the coming decades,” the announcement states.

    The mass production of chips at these plants is expected to begin in the next 12 to 15 months. The $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure within the U.S. does not make mention of direct government subsidies or public financial incentives related to NVIDIA’s recent announcement.

    I’m quoting that summary because it demonstrates that it’s easy to misunderstand things about the industry if you aren’t familiar with it. The way it’s worded make you think the “plants” are the Texas facilities they’re going to be building in 12-15 months, but the actual Nvidia press release makes clear than TSMC is doing the fabbing:

    NVIDIA is working with its manufacturing partners to design and build factories that, for the first time, will produce NVIDIA AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S.

    Together with leading manufacturing partners, the company has commissioned more than a million square feet of manufacturing space to build and test NVIDIA Blackwell chips in Arizona and AI supercomputers in Texas.

    Note the more precise wording.

    NVIDIA Blackwell chips have started production at TSMC’s chip plants in Phoenix, Arizona. NVIDIA is building supercomputer manufacturing plants in Texas, with Foxconn in Houston and with Wistron in Dallas. Mass production at both plants is expected to ramp up in the next 12-15 months.

    The AI chip and supercomputer supply chain is complex and demands the most advanced manufacturing, packaging, assembly and test technologies. NVIDIA is partnering with Amkor and SPIL for packaging and testing operations in Arizona.

    Within the next four years, NVIDIA plans to produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the United States through partnerships with TSMC, Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and SPIL. These world-leading companies are deepening their partnership with NVIDIA, growing their businesses while expanding their global footprint and hardening supply chain resilience.

    Now, if that half trillion does get spent (no guarantee, since press releases aren’t legally binding; try to contain your shock), that would certainly buy a lot of cutting edge fabs. Nvidia is one of the few companies that has the financial resources to build their own cutting edge fabs (Apple is another), but I get the impression that they’re going to partner with TSMC. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they follow the Apple model, where they tell a company “Here’s X amount of money, go build a fab. You’ll give us the first 24 months of production at x-cost per chip, and after that the fab is yours free and clear.” This is one of the tools Apple used to become the dominate tech buyer, and what some call a monopsony.

    As far as building their own supercomputers, that’s great for Texas and not so great for Hewett Packard Enterprise, which finished their acquisition of Cray in 2021.

  • Finally, Nvidia’s AI chips are now banned from export to China.

    The Trump administration has effectively barred Nvidia (NVDA) from selling its custom artificial intelligence processors to customers in China. The move will force the AI chip leader to write off up to $5.5 billion in inventory and purchase commitments in its fiscal first quarter. Nvidia stock fell Wednesday.

    Late Tuesday, Nvidia disclosed in a regulatory filing that the U.S. government is now requiring it to get an export license to sell its H20 processor in China and other restricted countries. Nvidia said it was informed of the move on April 9, the same day NPR erroneously reported that the White House would not seek further restrictions on the chips Nvidia can sell in China.

    Your tax dollars at work.

    Nvidia said the U.S. government told it on Monday that the license requirement will be in effect for the indefinite future.

    Wall Street analysts say Nvidia’s write-off indicates that the company believes it won’t be granted licenses to sell H20 processors in China.

    The H20 was designed for the Chinese market to comply with Biden-era restrictions on selling advanced processors there. The H20 is less capable than the Blackwell series chips Nvidia sells in the U.S. and other markets.

    “With Nvidia writing off associated H20 inventory, it appears the company is taking the position that it will not be granted licenses to ship product to Chinese customers (with no other geography likely to take the governed silicon given the availability of more powerful standard Hopper or Blackwell SKUs),” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said in a client note Wednesday. SKU stands for “stock keeping unit,” a unique identifier for products used in inventory management.

    China represents a little over 10% of Nvidia’s revenue.

    The Trump Administrations believes (probably correctly) that AI is a key strategic industry and that we don’t need to give China any help there.

  • A half trillion dollars is a lot of cheddar, even for the (as of today) company with the third largest market cap in the world…

    TSMC Bids To Take Over Intel Fabs

    Wednesday, March 12th, 2025

    I know that any time I talk about semiconductors, a significant percentage of my readership’s eyes glaze over, but this is Big Freaking News.

    Intel shares rose 6% in premarket trading after Reuters reported that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, or TSMC, had approached US chip designers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom about taking stakes in a joint venture that would operate the struggling chipmaker’s factories.

    Four sources told Reuters that the Taiwanese chipmaking giant would run Intel’s foundry division under the new proposal, producing chips tailored to customer requirements but not owning more than 50%. The sources added that Qualcomm has also been approached about the venture.

    For those unfamiliar with the semiconductor space, that’s a Murderers Row of heavyweights, including the top three semiconductor companies by market cap:

  • TSMC is far and away the largest chip foundry (a company that builds chips for other companies, but doesn’t design its own chips) in the world, and the one with a clear technological lead over everyone else. TSMC has the third largest market cap of any semiconductor company.
  • Broadcom is the second-largest semiconductor company in the world by market cap, and they have their fingers in a lot of different pies: networking, wireless, storage, you name it. They’re generally considered a fabless chip designer, but the company is such a weird amalgamation of other companies (what we call Broadcom used to be Avago until they acquired Broadcom in 2016) that they might still have a lower end fab or two lurking somewhere in the company. They also use TSMC as a foundry, though I’m not sure how extensively. They’ve also recently made a big move into software, acquiring CA Associates and VMWare, among others.
  • Nvidia is a fabless chip designer (the sort of company that contracts with foundries to fab their chips) that went heavily into high end GPUs (the chips that render video for your PC, in Nvidia’s case geared toward high end games and other highly demanding tasks), then crypto-mining chips, and more recently into chips geared for AI applications, all very lucrative market segments, which has made Nvidia not only first among semiconductor market cap, but among the largest companies by market cap in the world (along with Apple and Microsoft). Nvidia has their chips fabricated by TSMC, as well as some by Samsung and GlobalFoundries, which was spun off from…
  • Advanced Micro Devices, which used to be an Integrated Device Manufacturer (or IDM, a company designs their own chips and builds them in their own fabs) creating Intel-compatible CPUs, but eventually spun off their fabrication plants as GlobalFoundries because they couldn’t keep up with Intel’s capital spending. AMD also has some of their highest end chips fabricated by TSMC. If AMD were to help take over Intel, it would be an extremely ironic ending to a longtime rivalry.
  • Qualcomm is a lot like Broadcom: A mostly fabless design house with its fingers in lots of different pies, and they’re about the sixth largest semiconductor company by market cap. Broadcom tried to acquire Qualcomm in 2017-18 and was blocked by the Trump45 administration.
  • Intel is an IDM, and for decades was the undisputed “chipzilla” of the semiconductor world. Intel’s CPUs were the dominant processor for the vast majority of the last 40 years and a huge ingredient for helping create the PC revolution. Intel used to be the technology process leader as well, but somewhere along the way they screwed up their sub-10nm process nodes, allowing TSMC to take the process technology crown. Indeed, they screwed up so badly that they’ve been forced to have TSMC fab some of its highest end chips. Despite having a vast number of fabs, Intel’s market cap has slipped down to 16th among semiconductor companies.
  • Back to the piece:

    The sources noted that the Trump administration is exploring ways to revive Intel and strengthen US manufacturing under the ‘America First’ agenda. They added that TSMC’s joint venture pitch to chip designers took place before the company, alongside President Trump, announced plans last month to invest $100 billion in semiconductor manufacturing in the US, building on its existing $65 billion investment in its Phoenix, Arizona, factories.

    Any deal between TSMC and Intel would be subjected to approval from the Trump administration.

    If the Trump Administration’s goal is to increase available sub-10nm wafer starts (and it should be) and maintain American control of Intel’s fabs, then this proposal is a win-win. Intel’s fabs plus TSMC’s tech would create a foundry powerhouse. It wouldn’t happen overnight (nothing in semiconductors happens overnight), but probably in 12-24 months, depending on how quickly the new entity can acquire the necessary pieces of equipment to upgrade Intel’s fabs to thee new tech (I’m guessing that the availability of ASML steppers will, as usual, be the gating factor). And all this without the tens of billions in taxpayer subsidies for the CHIPS Act.

    If this goes through, it would have mostly winners, with a few losers:

    Winners

  • Every company that’s part of the deal. TSMC gets to radically expand production capacity without spending $20 billion+ to build a new fab. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and Qualcomm gain a lot more capacity for expanding production of their high end chips. Ditto for Apple (who’s not part of the deal, but who is TSMC’s biggest customer and a big demand driver for cutting edge fab capacity) and every other consumer of sub-10nm chips.
  • AMD additionally gets the egoboo of partially taking over its longtime hated rival and confirming it’s crown as the x86/x64 chip manufacturer of choice. Plus their then-risky decision to spin off GlobalFoundries looks like a genius move in hindsight.
  • The Trump Administration, which gets to take credit for vastly increasing American Foundry capacity at zero additional taxpayer expense and keeps Intel under American control.
  • Semiconductor equipment manufacturers like ASML, Applied Materials, LAM Research, Tokyo Electron and KLA (short term). It’s likely most or all of those companies (along with smaller players like Axcelis and Teradyne) will receive a bump in extra sales from leveling up Intel’s fabs to run TSMC’s process.
  • American chip startups: With so much high end capacity becoming available, existing and potential chip startups are going to look like more attractive investment capital opportunities.
  • ARM Holdings: ARM doesn’t make chips, they’re an IP design house that licenses their functional chip blocks to other chip designers. Just about every foundry and IDM is a licensee (yes, including Intel and TSMC), so unleashing more chip designs will almost certainly result in more royalties for ARM. (Nvidia tried to buy ARM in 2020, and regulators quashed that idea good and hard.)
  • Intel investors, who will either get a big lump-sum payment or shares in the new, probably far more profitable company (depending on how the buyout is structured).
  • Even Intel wins long-term by unleashing existing fab capacity to take on new business not tied to its faltering CPU manufacturing model. And actually, with TSMC’s process, Intel has a chance to recover in the CPU space as well.
  • Losers

  • Samsung: Along with TSMC and Intel, Samsung (which has both IDM and foundry components) has some of the best sub-10nm process tech in the world. They gain a whole lot of unleashed competition and stand on the outside looking in.
  • Intel‘s dreams of reclaiming their spot at the top of the heap, and suffering the indignity of being partially owned by AMD. How the mighty have fallen.
  • Every Chinese fab, which goes from “very far behind” to “even further behind.”
  • Semiconductor equipment manufacturers (long term): They better enjoy the out-of-band upgrade money from retrofitting Intel’s fabs, as it will likely mean a significant delay in anyone building a new cutting edge wafer fab for quite a while. And having two of their biggest customers team up is probably going to put them under a lot of downward pricing pressure.
  • GlobalFoundries (and other trailing edge foundries) might lose some business, but there’s very little overlap between Intel/TSMC cutting edge processes and GlobalFoundries trailing-edge fabs. Ditto UMC.
  • Are there anti-trust concerns with such a heavy accumulation of cutting edge process technology? Oh yeah. Big time. But almost all of those concerns were already there in some form or another thanks to the interconnected “cooperation” nature of the industry. All those companies going in with TSMC were already getting chips fabbed by TSMC. Samsung could try to claim that the deal would result in TSMC having a de-facto monopoly on sub-10nm foundry business, but it wouldn’t start with one, and that business isn’t the whole of foundry business (though it is the most profitable part), much less semiconductors as a whole.

    Given that this would go a long way toward achieving Trump’s goal of increasing cutting edge fab capacity in America, I would imagine that the Trump47 administration could very well be persuaded to let this deal go through.

    Chinese Malware Infects 4,000+ U.S. Computers

    Saturday, January 18th, 2025

    Communist China never rests in its quest to infect American computers with spy and malware, as in this story.

    The threat of cyberattack is never far away, be that by Amazon ransomware actors with an impossible-to-recover-from threat, or Windows zero-day exploits and even the hacking of the iPhone USB-C port. Luckily, the Federal Bureau of Investigation is also never far away when it comes to warnings about such attacks and hacker threats. But eyebrows will surely be raised just a little as the FBI and Department of Justice have confirmed that thousands of U.S. computers and networks were accessed to remove malware files remotely. Here’s what you need to know.

    The U.S. Department of Justice and the FBI have confirmed that a court-authorized operation allowed the remote removal of malware files from 4,258 U.S.-based computers. The operation, targeting the PlugX malware variant as used by what are said to be China-backed threat actors, was, the Jan. 14 statement said, designed to take down a version of PlugX used by the group known as Mustang Panda or Twill Typhoon, capable of controlling infected computers to steal information.

    According to court documents, the DoJ said, the People’s Republic of China government “paid the Mustang Panda group to develop this specific version of PlugX,” which has been in use since 2014 and infiltrated thousands of computer systems in campaigns targeting U.S. victims.

    “The FBI acted to protect U.S. computers from further compromise by PRC state-sponsored hackers,”Assistant Director Bryan Vorndran of the FBI’s Cyber Division, said, adding that the announcement “reaffirms the FBI’s dedication to protecting the American people by using its full range of legal authorities and technical expertise to counter nation-state cyber threats.”

    Thousands of U.S. computers and networks, estimated at 4,258 by the DoJ, were identified by the FBI in the technical operation to detect and delete the malware threat remotely. The first of nine warrants was obtained in August 2024 in the Eastern District of Pennsylvania authorizing the deletion of PlugX from U.S.-based computers, the last expired on Jan. 3. “The FBI tested the commands, confirmed their effectiveness, and determined that they did not otherwise impact the legitimate functions of, or collect content information from, infected computers,” the statement said.

    “This wide-ranging hack and long-term infection of thousands of Windows-based computers, including many home computers in the United States, demonstrates the recklessness and aggressiveness of PRC state-sponsored hackers,” said U.S. Attorney Jacqueline Romero for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania. “The Department of Justice’s court-authorized operation to delete PlugX malware proves its commitment to a ‘whole-of-society’ approach to protecting U.S. cybersecurity.”

    Upon reading this story, I was worried that the FBI had (and courts were authorizing use of) a tool that can break in and control random Windows PCs. While I wouldn’t put it past the FBI these days, the Forbes story left out one important technical detail:

    After researchers found out that thousands of infected machines reported to one specific IP address, they managed to seize control over the IP address that served as a Command & Control (C2) server.

    In close cooperation with the French authorities, the FBI and Justice Department used this IP address to “sinkhole” the botnet. Sinkholing in this context means that the redirection of traffic from its original destination to one specified by the sinkhole owners. The altered destination is known as the sinkhole.

    With control of the sinkhole, a specially configured DNS server can simply route the requests of the bots to a fake C2 server. This provides the controller of the sinkhole with valuable information about the affected systems and an opportunity to send commands to delete the PlugX version from the connecting devices.

    OK, that means the FBI only seized control of one specific computer that was already compromised by the exploit. That doesn’t mean the FBI doesn’t have a turnkey computer intrusion tool (logical fallacy alert), but it does mean they didn’t necessarily use such a tool here rather than a single white hat hacking instance to seize control of a single already-compromised PC.

    Still, it’s always good to check that your security tools and settings have been updated to catch the latest malware and exploits, foreign or domestic…

    (Hat tip: Director Blue.)

    I Have Heard The Bots Singing, Each To Each

    Saturday, January 4th, 2025

    If you look at some of the key ills plaguing America over the last ten years, Facebook has certainly had a hand in perpetuating some of them. Wokeness, censorship, echo chambers, commodification of user information and spam are just some of the evils Facebook (AKA Meta) has helped inflict on the citizenry.

    Now Facebook is inflicting AI-generated profiles on its users.

  • Kneon: “Facebook is experimenting with AI generated profiles on Facebook and Instagram.”
  • K: “it’s going to be pretty scary because I mean you already don’t know who you’re dealing with on the internet, and I’ve heard some pretty convincing or seen some pretty convincing video. They actually had uh one of the uh AI video generators doing like an influencer video for Tik Tok and you couldn’t tell it wasn’t a real person.” If you’re doing influencer videos on Tik-Tok, I’m already halfway convinced you’re not a real person…
  • K: “It’s going to make it a lot harder to tell who you’re dealing with on the internet.”
  • Is one of the profiles woke? Of course it is. Geeky Sparkles: “‘Proud black queer mama of two, truth teller.’ It’s a truth teller, but it’s an AI, so it’s already not real but it’s going to tell you the truth. ‘Your realest source for life’s ups and downs.’ Uh, but it’s not real, it’s an AI who doesn’t know about life’s up and ups and downs, but you know it’s a black queer, it identifies as ‘a black queer mama.'”

  • K: “Their parent company Meta company is rolling out a wide array of AI products, including one that helps users create AI characters on Instagram and Facebook.”
  • GS: “Why? Why do you need an AI character?” Why indeed?
  • K: “From someone who worked in marketing for years, and as a business owner, we have had some interesting things happen with Facebook advertising, and I don’t think all your money is going to ads being seen by real people.”
  • GS: “If advertisers are upset, and bots are a problem and bots and fake accounts are a problem because advertisers are getting scammed, they feel like they’re getting scammed and it’s an issue and we have to stop bots, why would flooding the market with generative AI characters and make your own make sense?”
  • K: “Meta hopes to attract a younger audience in a face off with competitors like Tik Tok and Snapchat.” First, why would Meta think younger users are all like “Hey, you know what I love? Fake profiles!” Second, if you’re taking your cues from Tik-Tok and Snapchat, you’ve already lost.
  • GS: “It’s hard to be a Tik tocker and make content all the time, or it’s hard to have enough content to keep going, but these AI can generate it indefinitely, so we’ll just tell people on Tik Tok to buy your shit.”
  • Maybe the goal is to create Ai influencers who pimp one company’s product and slam competitors.
  • Or create fake women on OnlyFans to make a mint.
  • In fact, there are already AI influencers earning money.
  • GS: “They’re talking about the Dead Internet Theory. And Dead Internet Theory, for those who don’t know is [basically] more and more accounts and activity on the internet are done by computers and fake people than real people.”
  • K: “Facebook feels dead now. Like endstage MySpace.”
  • In the wake of these revelations, there are conflicting accounts in different MSM sources as to whether Facebook has shut these accounts down or not.

    Maybe different MSM writers are talking to different AI bot pretending to be “inside sources.” Or maybe the MSM “writers” are bots as well.

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    I’m sure a lot is advertiser driven, but I wonder if some of the investment boom in AI is coming from lefty executives watching the collapse of their systemic preference falsifaction falling away due to events like Trump’s election (all of them) and Brexit and thinking to themselves “Shit, we need to fool the rubes even harder” by using social justice bots to give The Narrative the illusion of popularity.

    Fortunately for us, I think it’s too late for them to pull it off. Maybe Bluesky could finally surpass Twitter/X in user base, if we ignore that 98% of them are bots…

    But still, caution seems to be in order. More than ever, everything you see online should be treated with a degree of skepticism, even if you agree with it.

    Especially if you agree with it…

    ASML Exits, China Screwed

    Thursday, December 26th, 2024

    I’ve previously talked about China’s difficulties in catching up to the west in semiconductor manufacturing here, here, and here, among other places. To summarize: Western nations have an advanced, highly interconnected semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem that China doesn’t have the technical expertise to replicate. In particular, China has nothing like ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines (AKA a “stepper”) necessary to build the most advanced chips with the smallest feature geometries.

    Here’s a piece with ASML’s CEO talking about just how far China is behind.

    Though advancements that SMIC and Huawei have made in the semiconductor sector in recent years are pretty impressive, the companies are 10 to 15 years behind industry giants like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, said Christophe Fouquet, chief executive of toolmaker ASML. It’s well known that even with the best-in-class DUV tools, Chinese fab SMIC will be unable to match TSMC’s process technologies cost-effectively. This is because Chinese companies cannot access leading-edge EUV lithography tools.

    “By banning the export of EUV, China will lag 10 to 15 years behind the West,” said Christophe Fouquet in an interview with NRC (machine translated). “That really has an effect.”

    ASML has never shipped its EUV tools to China due to the Wassenaar Arrangement, despite SMIC’s reported order for one EUV machine. The details remain unclear, but ASML did not deliver the machine to the Chinese foundry due to US sanctions. However, ASML kept shipping advanced DUV lithography tools, such as the Twinscan NXT:2000i, which are capable of producing chips on 5nm and 7nm-class process technologies.

    As a result, SMIC has been producing chips for Huawei using its 1st-generation and 2nd-generation 7nm-class process technology for years now. This has certainly helped the Chinese high-tech giants weather U.S. government sanctions.

    Having understood that EUV tools are not coming to China, Huawei and its partners have explored extreme ultraviolet lithography themselves with the aim of building their own lithography chipmaking tools and ecosystem, which will take 10 – 15 years at best. For reference, it has taken over 20 years for ASML and its partners from foundational work to complete commercial machines to build the EUV ecosystem.

    China thought it had found a way out of the western ban on high end lithography machines. Turns out: Not so much.

  • “In the past two years, China has spent a staggering 8 billion euros to procure fewer than 120 Advanced immersion DUV lithography machines from Dutch company ASML.” DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) was the generation of machines before EUV, and can’t effectively pattern features of less than 10nm.
  • “On the surface this seemed like a bold and extravagant move. However, as of September 7th, the reality has turned into a bitter irony. Maintenance and upgrades for these machines are now completely restricted. In other words, starting next year these state-of-the-art [not quite – LP] lithography machines could become little more than scrap. To make matters worse, even repairs for older equipment are off the table.”
  • “Lithography machines are the backbone of semiconductor manufacturing, etching intricate circuits onto silicon wafers. Without proper maintenance and upgrades, these machines, worth tens of millions of euros each, will gradually deteriorate into expensive junk. Producing advanced chips smaller than 14 nanometers will become nearly impossible. Yield rates will plummet and costs will skyrocket.”
  • “Even TSMC, a global benchmark, requires ASML engineers to be stationed on site for regular recalibrations every 3 to 6 months. Earlier this year, an earthquake in Taiwan caused TSMC’s lithography operations to halt, and it took a month of recalibrations to resume lithography.” Requalification is indeed a huge pain in the ass.
  • “Machine maintenance depends on ASML proprietary components, software and technical support. Hiring a few engineers, or even the CEO of ASML, won’t solve the fundamental complexities of this highly specialized system. China’s attempts to rely on sheer manpower to bridge this gap are wishful thinking.”
  • “Thinking a few engineers could crack this technology is simply laughable. Lithography machines are just the tip of the iceberg in the complex semiconductor manufacturing supply chain.”
  • “China owns nearly 1,400 ASML lithography machines. With Western restrictions on maintenance spare parts and engineering services, these multi-million euro machines have been reduced to a rob Peter to pay Paul situation keeping them operational for just one more day at a time. Chip production is bound to shrink, creating a vicious cycle.”
  • “New sanctions implemented in September have blocked sales of models like the NXT1970i, shutting down access to both hardware and technology. At best, China’s capabilities remain stuck at the level of ASML’s older NXT 1470 machines, which date back to the early 2000s.”
  • “China’s so-called domestic lithography machines are limited to 65 nanometer dry DUV technology, with some reports claiming they can reach 55 nanometer. However, this is equivalent to ASML 2006-era technology, putting China 18 years behind. Worse, key components for these domestic machines still rely on suppliers from Japan and Germany.”
  • “China’s domestic lithography machines are largely a symbolic effort, more about saving face than actual technological advancement.”
  • There’s no way China can catch up to ASML in EUV lithography, and no way they can eliminate their deep dependence on western semiconductor manufacturing technology.
  • “Cutting edge EUV systems have been banned from China since 2019. Last June, high-end immersion DUV machines were added to the list. Now even older models like the NXT 1970i and 1980i can’t be sold or upgraded. China’s ambitions have been crushed, reducing it to square one.”
  • “This February, the Dutch Minister of Trade openly stated that China uses foreign high tech knowledge to advance its military capabilities, and ASML tools could produce sophisticated weapons. Handing over lithography machines to China is akin to arming an adversary, a move unacceptable on any strategic level.”
  • Without western technology, China’s desire for a technologically advanced semiconductor industry are dead in the water.
  • “The myth of China’s technological rise is unraveling and heading toward decline.”
  • When you buy a piece of high-end semiconductor equipment, you’re not just buying the machine, you’re buying the knowledgebase of deep technical expertise of both the on-site technical staff, as well as the process wizards back in Eindhoven, Santa Clara and Tokyo. There are inumerable parameters that need to be just right, and you need to know how to tweak them if the yield goes south. Without that expertise to guide you, the high end machines quickly become worthless.

    I can imagine President Trump offering China a grand bargain, in which they stop stealing western technology, stop committing genocide against the Uighers, stop clashing with Philippine ships in the South China Sea, meet its treaty obligations regarding Hong Kong, and let international agencies inspects its high level bioweapon labs in exchange for easing semiconductor sanctions.

    I doubt China would take such a deal, as it would be too humiliating for Xi to stand. But I can imagine Trump making it…

    Biden Unbanking And Censoring Political Enemies?

    Sunday, December 8th, 2024

    The Biden Administration isn’t yet done, and still more of it’s dirty dealings are coming to light. Remember Operation Choke Point, the semi-secret program to “debank” disfavored businesses like guns and weed under the Obama administration? Well say hello to Operation Choke Point 2.0, where the disfavored people being unbanked are the Obama/Biden Machine’s political opponents.

    Investor Marc Andreessen made headlines last week when he told Joe Rogan that dozens of tech founders had been quietly “debanked” under the Biden administration.

    Elon Musk commented on a shorter clip and asked: “Did you know that 30 tech founders were secretly debanked?”

    Andreessen called the orchestrated effort “Operation Choke Point 2.0,” in reference to an Obama-era initiative targeting the gun industry which triggered anti-boycott laws in some red states.

    “Debanking is when you, as either a person or your company, are literally kicked out of the banking system,” he explained. “Under current banking regulations, after all the reforms of the last 20 years, there’s now a category called a ‘politically exposed person,’ PEP. And if you are a PEP, [banks] are required by financial regulators to kick them off, to kick them out of your bank. You’re not allowed to have them.”

    “Basically, it’s a privatized sanctions regime that lets bureaucrats do to American citizens the same thing that we do to Iran, just kick you out of the financial system,” he said. “So this has been happening to all the crypto entrepreneurs in the last four years.”

    “So when Trump says the deep state, the way we would describe it is administrative power,” Andreessen said. “It’s political power being administered, not through legislation. There’s no defined law that covers this, it’s not through regulation. There’s nothing you can do — you can’t go sue a regulator to fix this. It’s not through any kind of court judgment. It’s just raw power. It’s just raw administrative power. It’s the government or politicians just deciding that things are going to be a certain way, and then they just apply pressure until they get it.”

    Sounds deeply illegal, unconstitutional, and un-American, doesn’t it?

    Here’s the video:

  • One person Andreessen mentions as being debanked is David Horowitz of FrontPage and the Freedom Center.
  • “You literally can’t get a bank account. You can’t get a Visa terminal. You can’t process transactions. You can’t do payroll. You can’t do direct deposit. You can’t get insurance.”
  • “Choke Point 2.0 is primarily against their political enemies and then to their disfavored tech startups, and it’s hit the tech world hard. We’ve had like 30 founders debanked in the last four years.” But lunatic tech/crypto founders like Sam Bankman-Fried get left alone despite breaking the rules because they donate to Democrats.
  • “This is one of the reasons why we ended up supporting Trump. It’s like we just can’t live in this world. We can’t live in a world where somebody starts a company that’s a completely legal thing, and then they literally get sanctioned.”
  • Here’s more of that interview with Andreessen, in which he says that the censorship regime against the enemies of the left/deep state was “widely understood.”

  • MA: “There’s nothing that happened at Twitter in the Twitter files that wasn’t happening to the all the other companies.”
  • MA: “It’s a consistent pattern. If you got the YouTube files, they would look exactly the same.”
  • MA: “The Biden White House was directly exerting censorship pressure on American companies to censor American citizens, which I think is just flatly illegal. I think it’s actually subject to criminal charges.” That would be willful denial of rights under the color of law.
  • MA: “There were also members of Congress doing the same thing, which is also illegal.”
  • MA: “Then there was a lot of funding of outside third party groups that were that were bringing a lot of pressure down on censorship.”
  • MA: “There’s a unit at Stanford, you know, right next door. The internet censorship unit that was funded by the US government [that] exerted tremendous pressure on the companies to censor, and it was very effective.”
  • JR: “One of the things that I found really kind of shocking was when they revealed how much money the Democrats had spent on the election, and how much money was spent on activist groups. It’s like more than $100 million, right?”
  • MA: “There’s extensive Government funding of politically oriented NGOs. NGO is one of those great terms, right? Non-governmental organization, all right. Like what what the hell is that?”
  • JR: “What is that? Tell me. I don’t know.”
  • MA: “It’s sort of a charity. But most of the time it’s a political entity. It’s an entity with a political agenda, but then it’s funded by the government. In a very large percentage of cases, including the the NGOs in the censorship complex. Like the government grants, National Science Foundation grants, like direct State Department grants, right? Then its okay. Now you’ve got an NGO funded by the government. Well, that’s not an NGO, right? That’s a GO.”
  • MA: “You’ve got government officials using government money to fund what what look like private organizations that aren’t.”
  • MA: “What happens is the government outsources to these NGOs the things that it’s not legally allowed to do.”
  • JR: “Like what?”
  • MA: “Like censorship. Like violation of First Amendment rights. What they always say is the First Amendment only applies to the government. The First Amendment says the government cannot cannot censor American citizens. And so what they do is, if you want to censor American citizens, if you’re [what] you do is you fund an outside organization and then you have them do it.”
  • JR: “That’s like hiring a hitman. Like it’s not okay to murder someone, but you can hire someone to murder someone and you’re clean.”
  • MA: “When the government does that, [that’s] a very powerful message. Like it’s a message from a mob boss. ‘Don’t you want to do me a favor?’ ‘Yes, Mr. Gambino, I do right. I’d like my corner store not to catch on fire tonight.'”
  • Also this tidbit: “In her book, Melania Trump, the former first lady, claimed her bank account and that of her son Barron were shut down in the wake of the Jan 6 riots. ‘This decision appeared to be rooted in political discrimination,’ she wrote.” Ya think?

    If Democrats didn’t hesitate to go after a First Lady and her son, they certainly wouldn’t hesitate to come after me or you…

    LinkSwarm For November 22, 2024

    Friday, November 22nd, 2024

    The Trump witchunt trial is suspended, PA Democrats give up the steal, the ruble collapses, a real estate developer is busted for bribery, thrash metal TDS, and an unexpected voice of sanity and reason from…Cenk Uygur?

    It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • New York Judge Indefinitely Postpones Trump Hush-Money Sentencing, Will Consider Dismissing Case.” Why, it’s almost as if the entire farcical trial was a witch hunt from the beginning.

    Judge Juan Merchan indefinitely postponed the sentencing hearing in President-elect Donald Trump’s New York criminal case, which had been planned for next week, in light of Trump’s election.

    Merchan is giving Trump’s legal team more than a week to file its motion asking for a dismissal under the argument that his return to office provides him a new host of immunity-related defenses.

    Trump’s lawyers will be required to file by December 2, after which Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg will have until December 9 to respond.

    Snip.

    While Trump could face up to four years in prison, the more likely sentence in the case — should it move forward — would be probation, which could include some combination of a fine or community service, as the former and future president is a first-time offender.

    “Just as a sitting President is completely immune from any criminal process, so too is President Trump as President-elect,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in a letter filed Tuesday.

    Trump’s team had requested a December 20 deadline to file.

    Bragg, for his part, has argued in favor of freezing the case for the entirety of Trump’s term in office, and then revisiting the sentencing at the end of Trump’s tenure.

    But Trump attorneys Todd Blanche and Emil Bove have argued dismissal of the case “is necessary under the Constitution and federal law to facilitate the orderly transition of Executive power — and in the interests of justice — following President Trump’s victory in the Electoral College and the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential election.”

  • Democrat Bob Casey realizes he won’t be able to cheat his way to victory and concedes after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court reiterates that no, you’re not allowed to illegally count the ballots we’ve already declared illegal.
  • The Harris campaign spent $12 million doing polling on her strengths and weaknesses. I’m going to guess that the amount Trump spent on polling his strengths and weakness was “zero.”
  • Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration as Trump’s Attorney General, and former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is the new nominee.
  • Heh:

    (Hat tip: Instapundit.)

  • Musician turns Democrat freakouts into epic thrash metal:

  • Are we running out of gunpowder? (Hat tip: KR Training.)
  • To paraphrase Instapundit, we’ve entered some sort of hellworld where Cenk Uygur is a voice of moderation and reason, calling out far left pollster Allan Lichtman for blowing his election call, whereupon Lichtman shrieks that Uygur is committing “blasphemy” against him. Everyone and their dog has posted this, but I’m linking to the Asmongold clip because his seems to be the shortest.
  • Ukraine hit a military manufacturing facility 1,279 km from the Ukrainian border in a drone strike.
  • The Russian ruble hit a two year low against the dollar.
  • Trump intends to squeeze Iran.

    US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration is preparing to reinstate its “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran, targeting Tehran’s economic stability and its ability to support militant proxies and nuclear development, The Financial Times reported on Saturday, citing sources close to the transition team.

    The sources revealed that the administration plans to impose stricter sanctions, particularly on Iran’s oil exports, which serve as a critical revenue source.

    The anticipated sanctions could drastically reduce Iranian oil exports, which currently exceed 1.5 million barrels per day, up from a low of 400,000 barrels per day in 2020. Experts suggest that these measures would severely impact Iran’s economy. Bob McNally, an energy consultant and former US presidential adviser, indicated that reducing exports to a fraction of current levels would leave Iran in a far worse economic position than during Trump’s first term.

  • The Danish Navy is following a Chinese ship suspected of severing communication cables in the Baltic Sea.
  • In a followup to yesterday’s story, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has ordered state entities to divest from investments in Communist China. “One investment group specifically highlighted in Abbott’s letter is the University of Texas/Texas A&M Investment Management Company (UTIMCO), which manages billions of dollars in assets for both university systems. UTIMCO has come under scrutiny after a Texas Scorecard investigation revealed its investments in more than 50 Chinese companies.”
  • Laken Riley’s illegal alien murderer convicted and sentenced to life without parole. Oh, and he had previously enjoyed a taxpayer-funded stay at the Roosevelt Hotel and a flight to Georgia. Thanks, Joe Biden.
  • El Salvador’s gang prison doesn’t play around. A whole lot of this would (rightfully) be considered cruel and unusual punishment, but we should veer more in this direction rather than putting illegal alien rapists up in hotels…
  • Michael Johnston, the mayor of Denver, “is “suggesting the use of force against ICE agents who are carrying out the lawful actions of the U.S. government.”
  • “Dallas Developer Pleads Guilty to Bribing City Council Members.”

    Sherman Roberts, who led the City Wide Community Development Corporation, was indicted four years ago for a bribery scheme involving former Mayor Pro Tem Dwaine Caraway and former City Council Member Carolyn Davis for their support of loans and low-income housing tax credits for his apartment projects.

    He now faces up to five years in prison and is expected to be sentenced in March.

    Roberts paid Davis several thousand dollars in cash, and promised future payments after her council tenure ended, in return for Davis’ support of his projects — Serenity Place, Runyon Springs, and Patriot’s Crossing — according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Texas.

    Roberts was a Democratic Party donor, but in fairly piddling amounts for a real estate developer…

  • Middle School Principal Arrested for Possession of Child Pornography…Chad Dwight Barrett, a 56-year-old principal at Hardin Junior High School in Liberty, was arrested on November 14 following a police investigation that found he sent a student an inappropriate video.”
  • “Incoming Lawmaker Files Legislation to Allow Death Penalty for Sex Crimes Against Children.” Would need to see the details, but clearly scumbags raping small children deserve to die…
  • Repeat criminal told sheriff it would take “his tank and his helicopter” to get him out of his house, but in the end all it took was a needle.
  • Southern Poverty Law Center tries to dox Not The Bee staffers over #WrongThink.
  • Advanced Auto Parts closes all of it’s California stores. Thanks, Gavin Newsom.
  • Carmakers stopped making affordable cars in order to underwrite their move into electric cars. Result: They can’t sell cars and their overflow lots are full.
  • The DOJ wants Google to sell off Chrome. Well, that would be a start in addressing their monopoly position in Internet searches, but would hardly be sufficient. They should also have to spin off YouTube. And because consumers were directly harmed by their monopoly, they should be required to add 2GB of storage a year for every Gmail user for 20 years, he said self-interestedly. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • The time of the turning: “Sold-out NYC crowd ERUPTS, chants USA as President Trump attends UFC 309 with Elon Musk, RFK Jr, Speaker Johnson.”
  • Austin governance at its usualist: “CapMetro puts dozens of electric buses in storage amid manufacturer’s financial collapse. (Previously.) (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Shocking news from the world of science: Weed isn’t good for you. “According to their findings, exposure to cannabis was associated with a range of cancers – breast, pancreatic, liver, thyroid, testicular and lymphoma – that also develop quickly and are more aggressive.”
  • Sweden’s Gender Equality Minister Paulina Brandberg is deeply afraid of…bananas.
  • Service for a hypercar costs more than the purchase price of a non-hyper car.
  • Thomas E. Kurtz, creator of BASIC, RIP. (Hat tip: Dwight.)
  • Enjoy the Honest Trailer for Megalopolis, with bonus Teen Girl Squad reference.
  • Interesting video on attempts to replicate flickering firelight using electric bulbs. (This is what I currently use for the Halloween season, and it’s adequate for my needs.)
  • The TDS doctor is in.
  • “Trump Worried Everyone Will Quit Before He Can Tell Them ‘You’re Fired.'”
  • “Fattest, Sickest Country On Earth Concerned New Health Secretary Might Do Something Different.”
  • “After Illegal Immigrant Found Guilty Of Murder, Dems Sentence Him To Flying Coach.”
  • “Sunny Hostin Forced To Read Legal Notice Acknowledging Nothing Said On ‘The View’ In Its Entire History Has Ever Been Remotely True.”
  • “Before DOGE Cuts Funding, NIH Working Feverishly To Complete Study On The Effects Of Giving Meth To Jetpack-Wearing Hamsters.”
  • That’s a happy puppy.