A pilot is returned (at the cost of a few airframes), more high-ranking IRGC and Hezbollah scumbags dirtnapped, a ballistic warhead plant blows up real good, and a Soleimani offspring gets skanky.
Both F-15 pilots have now been safely rescued from Iran:
FROM PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
WE GOT HIM! My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers, who also happens to be a highly respected Colonel, and who I am thrilled to let you know is now SAFE and SOUND! This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue. At my direction, the U.S. Military sent dozens of aircraft, armed with the most lethal weapons in the World, to retrieve him. He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine. This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation. This is the first time in military memory that two U.S. Pilots have been rescued, separately, deep in Enemy Territory. WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND! The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a SINGLE American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again, that we have achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies. This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, and everyone else, should be proud of and united around. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World. GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS, AND HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!
Evidently extracting the pilot was a considerable operation:
“Two C-130 Hercules & Little Bird Destroyed.” Evidently they got stuck in the sand and had to be destroyed by American forces after the crew were rescued. Plus reports of a running gun battle where American forces had to stomp more Iranian hostiles.
Ed Driscoll at Instapundit put up several tweets at foreigners not understanding that America cares a whole lot more about the lives of pilots than replaceable hardware.
Checking in on “Le Dying Empire” meme:
The US lost one 40 year old fighter jet over the course of 12,000 combat sorties then immediately rescued the pilot in hostile territory – while simultaneously sending astronauts to the moon. https://t.co/5XAulhMCWGpic.twitter.com/0Oti3WLAE5
You once were the feared boogie man of the Middle East. Instead, you get the complete shit kicked out of you for 5 weeks straight, your entire navy sunk, your supreme leader killed, and you FINALLY shoot down 1 plane
You once were the feared boogie man of the Middle East. Instead, you get the complete shit kicked out of you for 5 weeks straight, your entire navy sunk, your supreme leader killed, and you FINALLY shoot down 1 plane
This is finally your moment. You can parade the pilot on TV and use him as negotiating leverage
But instead, Air Force Pararescue puts boots on the ground on your home turf, we basically build a whole patrol base including a Forward Air Refueling Point, kill hundreds of your dudes, something goes wrong with one of the C-130s at the FARP on our way out, we’re not even cortisol spiked so we simply just fly in another plane and blow up the old one instead of even bothering to do any maintenance just because of how much money we have that we can simply buy a new plane
Good grief. I haven’t seen a beatdown this bad since Will Stancil got molested by Grok. This is honestly embarrassing for the IRGC at this point. That was LITERALLY your home territory where you know all the terrain and have home field advantage, we have never done real boots on the ground operations in Iran before, and you still lost.
“Iranian state-affiliated media report that Mohammad Ali Fathali-Zadeh, a brigadier general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and commander of the Fatehin unit, was killed on Wednesday.”
“IDF Eliminates Senior Commander of Hezbollah’s 1800 Terror Unit in Beirut Strike… Israeli fighter jets “conducted a strike in Beirut and eliminated Hamza Ibrahim Rakin, Deputy Commander of Unit 1800, along with the unit’s Operations Officer.”
“Israel strikes ballistic warhead plant, ‘heart’ of Iran’s military complex in air strikes on Tehran.” It blew up real good.
Caveat: Real explosions are interspersed with AI videos of the tunnels underneath.
“Iran’s highest bridge linking Tehran to Karaj is struck in a joint US-Israeli strike.”
Tousi is reporting inter-regime strife between different elements over controlling the government.
A financially motivated data theft and extortion group is attempting to inject itself into the Iran war, unleashing a worm that spreads through poorly secured cloud services and wipes data on infected systems that use Iran’s time zone or have Farsi set as the default language.
Experts say the wiper campaign against Iran materialized this past weekend and came from a relatively new cybercrime group known as TeamPCP. In December 2025, the group began compromising corporate cloud environments using a self-propagating worm that went after exposed Docker APIs, Kubernetes clusters, Redis servers, and the React2Shell vulnerability. TeamPCP then attempted to move laterally through victim networks, siphoning authentication credentials and extorting victims over Telegram.
Also from Ed Driscoll, the niece of Qasem Soleimani living like a slutty American girl here while supporting the mullah regime:
I was considering this from the American perspective, but from the Arabic, Iranian, and Muslim perspective this is a huge propaganda coup for the American government. These photos completely discredit Iran, at a moment when Iranian soldiers are deserting and demoralized. https://t.co/oGsNeTh97opic.twitter.com/3zRcJ1eIMB
Iranian is still lobbing missiles at its neighbors. “Iranian forces struck Bahrain’s BAPCO oil refinery this morning, setting the facility’s tank farm ablaze.”
Prophecy for two days from now: “U.S. President Donald J. Trump in a post Easter Sunday directed at Iran via TruthSocial: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
As always, these are just the stories I was able to gather I thought important enough to include. If you think I missed anything important, feel free to share it in the comments below.
Back when I was doing regular Texas vs. California updates, this is the sort of video I would feature. It covers why Texas is doing so much better than Europe, though the framing misses a few things I’ve tried to highlight below.
Caveat: I don’t know who “The Economic Matrix” is, but what they’re saying is generally right, but a bit incomplete.
“This is Texas. To most of the world, it’s just one of 50 American states. But if you pulled it off the US map and dropped it into the global rankings as its own nation, it would sit eighth in the world, sandwiched directly between France and Italy, with a staggering GDP of $2.77 trillion. But that’s just the start. In 2025, the Texas economy was bigger than the equivalent of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Austria combined.”
“Texas and Europe are separated by more than an ocean. They’re separated by two completely different ideas of how a state should operate. And right now, one of those ideas is winning by a distance that gets harder to close every year. In 2024, the Texas economy grew by nearly 4%. The entire European Union managed 1%, and the gap is only getting wider.”
“The EU spent most of the last 15 years in crisis mode. A sovereign debt collapse left Greece, Spain, and Portugal on the edge of ruin.” I covered the European Debt Crisis (especially among the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain)) as it was happening, and the thing to remember is that it was (and is) a deficit spending crisis. Like the federal government, European governments insist on spending more than they take in. Real austerity, i.e. cutting outlays until they match receipts, hasn’t failed, it’s been declared difficult and left untried.
“Years of near zero growth followed. The in 2022, Russia cut off the gas and sent inflation across the Euro zone spiking to 9.2%.” Here the video also avoids noting that another big inflation driver was the effects of the Flu Manchu lockdown across most EU economies.
“Through all of that, the Texas economy just kept climbing. The productivity gap tells the same story. Between late 2019 and mid 2024, labor productivity per hour in the Euro zone rose by 0.9%. In the US, it rose by 6.7%. Texas led that charge.”
“Look at the Permian Basin. Oil production nearly tripled in a decade while the rig count was cut almost in half because horizontal drilling and AI-guided extraction meant fewer rigs producing more oil. Same workforce, three times the output.” Oil industry-specific AI has very little do with the current general AI build-out bubble.
“There’s a mathematical reality that makes this trajectory almost impossible to reverse. At 1.5% annual growth, the EU takes roughly 47 years to double in size. At the 3.5% rate Texas usually averages, it takes 20. By the time the EU doubles once, Texas will have doubled twice. That gap compounds and it means every year the distance between these two economic models doesn’t just persist, it accelerates.”
“Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, released a landmark report warning that without serious reform, the EU is heading toward what he called a slow agony. Leaders held a retreat to discuss it. Then they went back to their committees.” Future pain is abstract, while the electoral pain of trying to reform things is far more immediate.
“Since 2020, more than 200 companies have moved their headquarters to Texas. Tesla relocated to Austin in 2021. Chevron, one of the largest energy companies on Earth, announced its move to Houston in 2024. Charles Schwab, CBRE, SpaceX. More than half of these relocations came from California alone.”
“These are not satellite offices or mailbox moves. The reason they gave was simple. The regulatory environment in California made expansion too slow and too expensive. Texas made it fast, cheap, and permanent.”
“Spotify was founded in Stockholm, but listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Skype was built in Estonia and Luxembourg, then bought by Microsoft and absorbed into Redmond. ARM was designed in Cambridge, England, then acquired by a Japanese conglomerate and listed in New York. Europe keeps building the talent. America keeps cashing the check.”
“Beneath the growth stats and the corporate migrations, there’s one factor that explains this gap better than anything else: Energy. Texas produces more energy than almost any country on Earth. Not other American states, actual nations. Between 2007 and 2023, while the rest of the United States saw energy consumption drop by about 5%, Texas went in the other direction. Energy use in the state climbed by 21% and the industrial sector alone saw a 28% jump in demand. This was not a state focused on conservation or cutting back. Texas was building oil rigs, refineries, chemical plants, and massive wind installations, all at the same time.” Those wind farm installations were the result of subsidies, and they’re not really building new ones anymore.
“The reason Texas could pull this off comes down to one decision made decades ago. Texas built its own power grid, specifically to escape the slow motion gears of federal regulation. The result, solar capacity that grew 32% in just 2024, wind generation that leads every other American state, and a massive natural gas fleet running underneath it all to keep the lights on when the sun goes down, cheap, abundant, predictable, and fast to build.” Again, the solar build-out was aided by subsidies.
“For decades, the European energy models rested on one assumption. Buy cheap gas from Russia, build out renewables slowly, and keep industrial costs manageable. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, that assumption collapsed overnight. Wholesale energy prices went vertical. Industrial electricity costs in Germany suddenly hit three to four times what businesses in Texas were paying for the exact same power.”
“Look at what happened to BASF, the largest chemical company in the world. For over 150 years, their home was Ludwigshafen, Germany, a sprawling industrial complex on the Rhine that employed tens of thousands. After 2022, they announced billions in cuts to that site. Plants shuttered, thousands of jobs gone. But BASF didn’t disappear. At the exact same time, they were breaking ground on new facilities in Freeport, Texas. Same company, same products, two completely different decisions driven entirely by the price of electricity.” Probably not just electricity. Union work rules in Germany are considerably less flexible than those in right-to-work Texas.
“France tried to escape this trap by leaning into nuclear power, which once covered 75% of French electricity needs. But that infrastructure is aging. New reactor projects like Flamenville have run tens of billions over budget and more than a decade behind schedule, and the political will to build more has been stuck in debate for a generation. The old Russian gas model is dead. The nuclear renaissance has not arrived. And permitting a single wind farm in the EU can take 7 to 10 years.”
“In Texas, the same process often takes a few months. Energy prices act like a hidden tax on everything from manufacturing steel to running a server farm to heating a bakery. European businesses pay that tax every single day. And Europe does not have the gas, does not have the grid independence, and does not have the permitting speed to change that.” Actually, Europe does have oil and gas reserves it refuses to develop.
“Cheap energy is a huge piece of the puzzle. But the real accelerant for the Texas economy has been something even harder for Europe to copy. And it starts with one number. The average top personal income tax rate across 35 European countries is 38.5%. In Denmark, that number hits a staggering 60.5%. In Germany, France, and Italy, high earners face rates between 45 and 50%.”
“In Texas, the state income tax rate is zero. It’s always been zero, and the Texas Constitution actually makes it illegal for the state to introduce one without a direct vote from the public. This is not a temporary policy that a new government can reverse after the next election. It’s locked into the foundation of the state.”
“Texas still has high property taxes, so the total burden on a normal resident is not as dramatic as that 0% headline suggests. But for the people these economies are competing over, the math is brutal. A senior software engineer in Munich earns roughly €75,000 and takes home about $45,000 after income tax and social contributions. The same engineer in Austin earns $140,000 and takes home over $105,000. same skills, same screen, more than double the money in their pocket at the end of the year. Between 2020 and 2024, Texas startups pulled in over $46 billion in venture capital. In Q1 2025 alone, Texas tech companies raised nearly $3 billion, the biggest single quarter the state had seen in over 2 years, with massive deals in cyber security, defense tech, and biotech.”
“Compare that to the other side of the Atlantic. The entire European Union raised about $17.5 billion for AI funding in all of 2025. The US raised nearly $70 billion for generative AI alone by midyear. Not total tech, not all venture capital, generative AI alone. These two regions are not competing in the same category.”
“The EU’s regulatory framework was designed to protect consumers and level the playing field. GDPR [General Data Protection Regulation], the AI Act, 27 different national compliance regimes stacked on top of each other. The intentions were sound, but the unintended result is that the compliance costs favor massive American companies like Google and Microsoft, who can absorb them easily over smaller European rivals who can’t.”
“None of this means Texas has it all figured out, because the truth is it hasn’t. The most visible problem is housing. In 2019, a median Texas family earned 62% more than they needed to buy a median home. By 2023, that cushion had collapsed to just 7%. Not 62%, 7%. Over a third of Texas households now spend more than 30% of their income on housing.” That’s a national problem, partially engendered by the Flu Manchu shutdowns, partially by restrictive local building codes. “Affordable housing” blather snipped, since this is just more unnecessary government subsidy and intervention.
“The workers who actually build the Texas economy, the Tesla line workers, the nurses, the warehouse staff, can’t afford to live in the cities their labor is building anymore. They commute in from further and further out, and the roads, the housing, and the services all fall behind.” Partially true, partially false. Austin housing prices exploded, but have come down dramatically. Dallas and San Antonio prices spiked, then plateaued. Houston prices have continued climbing, but gradually.
“When a place grows this fast, the infrastructure simply can’t keep up.” True of Austin, less true of Houston, though having to rebuild certain interchanges is making things a nightmare for certain commuters.
Discussion of energy grid problems and the 2021 ice storm snipped, since I think we’ve covered those enough here.
“The problems in Texas are the problems of a place growing too fast. The problems in Europe are the problems of a place that is barely growing at all. In that sense, Texas and Europe have something in common. Both are stuck. The difference is that Texas is gridlocked because too many people are trying to get to work. Europe is gridlocked because too many committees are still deciding whether to build the road. Right now, Texas has its sights set on overtaking France, a G7 nation. At current growth rates, that gap closes faster than most people realize. And France’s response, like the rest of Europe’s, has been to wait and see.”
“The real question isn’t whether Europe can change. It’s whether it actually wants to change badly enough to feel the pain that comes with it. Because while Brussels is still writing the rule book, the game is already over for the economies Texas has already passed. The ones still in its path just haven’t checked the scoreboard yet.”
Left out of this coverage: Texas has a constitutionally mandated balanced budget, while the overwhelming majority of European nations keep running budget deficits to keep their cradle-to-grave welfare states afloat.
Not to mention a government run by Republicans rather than unstable coalitions including the Greens…
Something a little different than the usual Iran roundup: Two videos about Kharg Island, one an after-action report on a U.S. attack run, the other a description of what makes taking the island difficult.
The caveat for the after-action video, a recreation of an actual U.S. attack run, is that it’s done a breathless, overly-dramatic fashion, like something from Most Shocking. But the detailed, blow-by-blow account suggests it was taken from actual after-action reports.
Three B-1B Lancers carrying precision-guided bombs attempted the most surgically demanding strike of Operation Epic Fury — destroying Iranian military targets on Kharg Island without touching the crude oil infrastructure sitting meters away. Then the GPS jamming started, and the mission nearly came apart.
This video reconstructs the full tactical breakdown of the Kharg Island strike: how an Iranian GPS jammer degraded bomb accuracy toward the oil, how the F/A-18 Super Hornets sent to destroy it nearly got hit by friendly JDAMs when a deconfliction failure put them directly in the bomb fall line, and how one Mersad air defense commander’s final radio transmission turned inaccurate anti-aircraft fire into precision-guided shrapnel that bracketed B-1Bs mid-bombing run. We cover the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile shot that eliminated the SAM battery, the burning missile propellant creeping toward thirty million barrels of crude oil, the IRGC patrol boat sprint toward the supertanker loading channel, and the F/A-18 pilots who descended into accurate anti-aircraft fire from guns they couldn’t suppress to stop a mining operation with laser-guided GBU-54 JDAMs.
The breathless nature of the narration makes me suspect that certain aspects have been embellished for dramatic effect.
Next up: Simon Whistler discusses how difficult it will be for the American military to take and hold Kharg Island. Consider it the pessimist case against the operation.
“The value of Kharg Island is obvious. Control the island, and you could throttle Iran’s oil dependent economy. Capture the island intact, and another nation could make Iran do anything to get it back. Destroy it outright and Iran would transform from a powerful rogue nation into an economic afterthought. And that’s if we’re being generous.”
“The export facilities on Kharg Island are the most important site in one of Iran’s most important regions, meaning that the region is especially important to the Iranian military. This is a region with a well-developed civilian infrastructure, a large presence from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC, and most likely the hidden weapons stockp match. Then there’s the island itself, a low-lying coral crop with an elevation of just 70m at its highest point. With a land area of roughly 20 square km, Kharg Island is basically flat, basically triangular in shape and surrounded by deep waters to enable the transit of oil tankers.”
Some pre-situated weapons and supply caches will likely survive any American bombardment.
“There’s no telling what the US will destroy and what it’ll fail to pick up on, but some of those mines and air defenses will survive, raising the possibility that they could claim the lives of US troops or shoot down vulnerable non-stalthy low-flying aircraft. That said, Kharg will not be an easy place to defend once US ground forces have established a foothold. Iranians on the island will either be left exposed or be forced to use refinery infrastructure as cover unless they allow themselves to be pushed into the island town where most residents live.”
“Iran’s objective is not victory in any conventional sense. Iran is able to accept the deaths of its political and military leaders and the destruction of its cities and mass casualties among its soldiers, paramilitaries, and civilian supporters. Iran’s focus is on regime survival, not the survival of the people who make up the regime, but the survival of the regime itself.” No, that’s the regime‘s goal. Most ordinary Iranians hate the regime’s guts.
He notes the difficulty of getting amphibious landing ships through the Strait of Hormuz. But America will likely have a screening force of destroyers and frigates in addition to overwhelming air superiority, and Iran probably has very little in the way of missiles that can reach across the strait, at night, without real air assets to spot and paint the target, in the face of American air and naval superiority. Given America and Israel’s attacks on their sensor and communication infrastructure, I also doubt the Iranian military is capable of efficient coordination and dissemination of any real-time information they may be receiving from Russian or Chinese satellites.
He’s still right that amphibious and aerial invasions are exceptionally difficult and fraught with peril.
But I believe there are multiple places where Whistler is unduly pessimistic about such an operation.
First and foremost, the military assets discussed in the media are not necessarily the assets such an operation would be limited to. Remember how the very public news of B-2s in route to Diego Garcia was a ruse to cover the fact that the real B-2 force was already headed to the target in the June strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. It’s entirely possible (even probable) that America already has assault assets in theater that media outlets don’t know about.
Some debatable assertions: “Iranian forces are nothing if not creative, and they are highly motivated to accept risk to their own lives in order to deliver damage to an adversary.” And “The first problem that the US would have to account for is the Iranian ground forces. Combination of roughly 350,000 soldiers in the Iranian army, about 150,000 soldiers across the ground forces of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, and another several hundred thousand paramilitary fighters of the Basij Resistance Force.” Whistler suggests virtues not necessarily in evidence for Iran’s forces. The IRCG has certainly shown itself highly motivated when it comes to launching terror rockets, supporting insurgencies, or slaughtering civilians, but not so much when it comes to an actual toe-to-toe fight against a real military, a domain in which they have zero experience or demonstrated competency. Likewise, there’s little evidence that Iranian military regulars are all that keen to die for the regime. They also did not notably distinguish themselves in the long, bloody slog of the Iran-Iraq War, a stalemate against an Iraqi military that the United States-led coalition would quickly and comprehensively dismantle in the Gulf War a few years later. And back then, Iran had some relatively modern air power. Likewise the Basij seem well equipped to beat defenseless women for immodesty, but I rather strongly suspect the overwhelming majority will cut and run when faced with trained soldiers who can fire back.
If America successfully takes Kharg Island, it will be impossible for Iranian forces to get ships across from the mainland to retake it in the teeth of overwhelming American air power, even if they try crossing at night.
Likewise, the difficulty in taking the island without damaging the critical oil infrastructure that makes it worth taking may cause Iran to avoid their usual inaccurate missile barrages. And Iranian forces will likely find it difficult to set up missile, artillery and drone systems on the coastline under withering American and Israeli attack.
“The American public is not willing to accept the loss of American troops, and it is not willing to accept long-term or severe economic pain just to see the Islamic Republic overthrown.” This assertion is not necessarily true. The American public can certainly be fickle, but thus far Astroturf protests against the war have modest and populated with the usual foreign-funded, elderly white lefty idiots. Americans over a certain age remember the Iranian Hostage Crisis, and may feel eliminating one of they key sources of jihad terror worldwide for good worth the cost. Also, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, U.S. military and civilian leadership seems 100% dedicated to absolute victory.
Whistler seems to think that all of Iran’s military forces will fight with the same fanaticism of Imperial Japanese troops on Iwo Jima. Given how badly the regular armies of Muslim nations have fought against first world armies in standup fights, as opposed to fanatical insurgencies running year-long campaigns of attrition, I rather strongly suspect he’s mistaken.
The Iran war is one months old and the usual Negative Nellies in the Democrat Media Complex are whinging that the war’s not won yet, or suggesting that the Trump Administration is looking for an “off ramp.” Funny how it takes time to defeat a nation of 92 million, even one where the regime is hated by its citizens and whose prewar air force looked like a museum. Everything we hear from CENTCOM is that the air campaign is on schedule.
And the “off ramp” for the war is regime change in Tehran.
“The USS Tripoli and USS New Orleans arrived in the Middle East, carrying with them 2,200 Marines — with more on the way — hours after an Iranian strike left dozens of U.S. service members hurt at a Saudi air base. The Tripoli and New Orleans are two of several additional vessels and personnel the Pentagon has deployed to the region as the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran enters it’s second month. The Tripoli Amphibious Group brings with it F-35B Strike Fighters, as well as transport aircraft, amphibious assault vessels and other tactical assets.”
“Israel struck secret facility for production of Iran’s naval weapons and storage of boats and ships.”
“The facility located in the city of Yazd served as a key production center for advanced missiles and sea mines intended for Iran’s naval forces.”
“The site that was hit was reportedly involved in designing, assembling, and testing advanced missiles that could be launched from ships, submarines, and helicopters, targeting both moving and stationary vessels at sea.”
“The Israeli Defense Forces described the location as the central hub of Iran’s naval strike capabilities, noting that weapons produced there had been used in operations that posed a threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Following the strike, the facility’s production infrastructure and stores of ready-to-use missiles were said to have been completely destroyed.”
“A reported Israeli airstrike on Tehran has killed Hassan Hassanzadeh, a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Mohammad Rasul‑Allah Corps, which oversees security in Greater Tehran and counter‑ unrest operations.” I’ve also seen his name rendered “Hassan Hassan Zadeh,” for those playing IRGC Dirtnap Bingo at home…
“Majid Zakriyai, commander of the Iranian Army’s Natural Resources Organization protection unit, was killed.”
President Trump promised some absolute scorched earth on Iran if they don’t fall in line, promising to blow up their electric grid, their oil wells and Kharg Island…but then deleted the tweet. 🤷
E-3 Sentry and KC-135 destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
The anti-air capabilities of Prince Sultan Air Base still leave much to be desired.
The Houthis had been unusually quiet during the open stages of the war. Well, that’s ended, and they’re now tossing missiles at Israeli. Not sure how many they have, given that Iran has been both broke and busy…
It’s always hard to tell what the state of the war in Lebanon is, but to my casual observation, it looks like the intensity of strike has lessened on both sides, but Hezbollah attacks seem to have fallen sharply. On the other hand, today’s status map show that Israeli forces are already at the Litani River in the eastern part of Lebanon:
“US military has been working on Iran ground raid plans for years.” One would hope.
Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command (Centcom), said Sunday that the U.S. military has been working on plans for a ground raid in Iran for years, as President Trump is reportedly considering sending troops into the war.
“Margaret, for many years we’ve considered options along the southern coast of Iran, seizing islands, seizing small bases. Typically raids. And a raid is an operation with a planned withdrawal. You’re not going to stay. But some of those islands you could seize and hold. That would have a couple effects,” McKenzie told CBS News’s Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation.”
“First of all, it would be profoundly humiliating for Iran and would give us great weight in negotiations. The second, the example of Kharg Island, which everyone talks about, if you seize Kharg Island, you really can shut down the Iranian oil economy completely. And the beauty of seizing it is, you’re not destroying it,” he said.
Is China pushing Iran for a ceasefire?
“The risks to global trade through the Strait of Hormuz have surged and the dynamics of Iran’s relationships with Russia and China are constantly in the spotlight. Recently, both countries have pressured Iran, urging diplomatic solutions to the crisis. On March 24th, China’s foreign ministry reported that Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with Iran, calling for seizing the opportunity for peace and negotiating as soon as possible.” So did Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
“Analysts believe Russia has explicitly urged Iran to back down, signaling that Moscow views Iran as unable to continue fighting. Shortly afterward, China followed suit, aligning with Russia in terms of diplomatic timing. This indicates coordination between the two countries. Their shared goal is to maintain the stability of the Iranian regime, ensuring it continues to act as a strategic counterbalance to the United States.”
“From Beijing’s perspective, Iran is not only a major energy supplier, but also a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese investments in the country amount to at least hundreds of billions of dollars, covering oil and gas field development, port construction, and transportation networks. If the Iranian regime were completely overthrown, it would directly threaten China’s energy and geopolitical interests. Therefore, Beijing must intervene diplomatically and urge Iran to turn to negotiations.” A lot of observers believe that Belt and Road is already moribund.
“A source close to China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, revealed to the Epoch Times that Iran has refused any purely diplomatic arrangements and instead pressured Beijing with selective security, linking substantial aid to the safe passage of Chinese commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This is soft extortion. Without military assistance, China cannot ensure the smooth passage of its trade routes. Beijing’s multiple secret negotiations have ended in failure and its efforts to profit from the geopolitical game are now facing the dual impact of diplomatic imbalance and economic stagnation.”
China also thought it could be a negotiating mediator between Washington and Tehran. Yeah, fat chance.
“This crisis is essentially the inevitable backlash of China’s ‘wolf warrior diplomacy” and camp confrontation mentality.”
“China’s leaders have fallen into a self-entangling dilemma. The forces they’ve supported are now cutting off their own economic lifelines. The disruption in the Straight of Hormuz is not only a rupture in global logistics, but also a microcosm of the complete collapse of China’s geopolitical strategy.”
“You’re starting to see the Iranian regime looking for an exit ramp.”
“USAF A-10s are arriving in the UK tonight as the U.S. surges more Warthogs to the Middle East.”
As usual, this is just the Iran news I felt significant enough to include in the roundup. If you think I’ve missed anything, feel free to share in the comments below.
As usual, open video tabs start to accumulate on things that aren’t quite worth a separate post, but a bit too interesting to throw into a LinkSwarm. So here’s a tab-clearing roundup.
Inside Apple’s push for domestic semiconductor production:
Includes a look at TSMC’s Arizona fab complex, an ASML EUV stepper (which we covered here), and a Foxconn assembly line.
The title of this Jordan Petersen lecture is “Why South Park Works,” but it’s actually about how human perception works.
As a bonus, here’s a version of the basketball-gorilla test he talks about.
Critical Drinker on Paramount winning Warner Brothers:
New boss David Ellison is a fan of male action heroes, and not a fan of “The Message.” “I think it’s fair to say this guy sees middle America for what it is, a potentially huge market that’s been badly neglected in recent years, mostly by people who absolutely hate them.”
“If ever there was a definitive signal that the age of identity politics and the message has come to an end in Hollywood, I think this just might be it. The great experiment that’s decimated pop culture for the past decade is well and truly over. Good fucking riddance.”
Testing Ukrainian anti-drone shotgun slugs:
Basically metal petals attached with string.
Why Teddy Roosevelt didn’t fight in World War I:
To grossly boil down: because Woodrow Wilson didn’t want a no-win situation of either an ex-president ending up dead in a trench or making Roosevelt so popular again that he could beat him in the 1920 presidential election.
Not one but two Iranian naval commanders get dirtnapped, more than 10,000 Iranian targets have been hit, Iran getting 12 year olds to join the fight, and claims it’s reinforced Kharg Island.
The latest CENTCOM update from Admiral Brad Cooper:
Highlights:
Over 10,000 Iranian targets hit. More counting Israeli strikes.
“We’ve destroyed 92% of the Iranian Navy’s largest vessels.”
“Iran’s drone and missile launch rates are down over 90%.”
“Today, we have damaged or destroyed over two-thirds of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards, and we’re not done yet.”
“Now, in their eighth decade of flight, our B-52 bombers are executing strikes into Iran with up to 70,000 pounds of munitions on each mission.”
Also from Admiral Cooper: “Israel has eliminated the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Navy, Admiral Alireza Tangsiri.” He was supposedly the guy overseeing blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel also hit two “key naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran. IAF fighter jets targeted facilities used by the Iranian regime to develop and manufacture long-range naval cruise missiles capable of destroying targets at sea and on land.”
Israeli fighter jets, on Tuesday, struck Iran’s main weapons production site. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) described the fortified underground site in the central Iranian city of Isfahan as the regime’s “most central explosives production facility.”
The “Israeli Air Force, acting on IDF intelligence, completed a wide-scale wave of strikes, targeting the Iranian regime’s military-industrial production facilities in Isfahan,” the Israeli military announced Tuesday evening. “The IDF confirms that it struck the most central production site for explosive materials in Iran, where the Iranian regime developed and produced explosive materials for various of weapons.”
Israel had hit the facility extensively last year, but they were trying to rebuild it.
“Israel hit a naval facility in Iran’s Caspian Sea port of Bandar Anzali and has targeted a military supply route used by Moscow and Tehran to transfer weapons….The Israeli military said the strike hit dozens of targets, including warships, a command centre and a shipyard used to maintain vessels. Verified images showed damage to Iran’s naval headquarters and destroyed vessels.”
Iran is winning so hard they have to recruit 12-year olds. “Iran has said that children as young as 12 can join the war, country’s state media quoted Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) official as saying that the minimum age for participation in war-related support roles has been lowered.” Much like they used 12 to 17 year olds to clear minefields in the Iran-Iraq war.
“The United States has deployed uncrewed drone speedboats for patrols as part of its operations against Iran, the Pentagon said, the first time Washington has confirmed using such vessels in an active conflict.”
The MSM may be against the war, but the Iranian people are for it. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
Don Lemon finds out that an American of Persian descent is 100% behind the war:
WATCH: Don Lemon: “How do you feel about the war?”
Young Man: “I'm Persian. I support Donald Trump 100%. The Islamic regime kills woman. They killed 50,000 people in two days. A lot of them believe in death [to] all Americans. I 100% support Trump.”
Many have criticized the Royal Navy for not doing more to assist the U.S. against Iran, even after Iranian missiles hit an RAF base on Cyprus. But Mark Felton tells us the reason why, just as he did last year with The Navy With More Admirals Than Warships: The Royal Navy is so radically shrunk that it’s already inadequate even for the tasks it’s already assigned to carry out.
“Currently the Royal Navy has 63 commissioned ships. But of this number only 25 are really fighting ships. That is submarines, aircraft carriers, destroyers and frigates. The balance are support patrol and survey vessels which, though armed, are not true fighting warships.”
“Britain is of course involved with a variety of defense tasks worldwide. But due to endless defense cuts, the Navy is hard-pressed to fulfill them. So of the fighting ships in 2026, Britain possesses ten submarines, two aircraft carriers, six destroyers, and seven frigates.”
“Such a small fleet might be sufficient for a small nation engaged only in self-defense. But Britain still has some 15 overseas territories, many of which, like the Falkland Islands, require naval protection.”
“30 years ago in 1996, the Royal Navy had 17 submarines, 3 aircraft carriers, 15 destroyers, and 22 frigates. And it is generally agreed that the Royal Navy should still be this large, as the defense commitments are basically the same as they were in 1996.”
“As Britain continues to be put through a process termed ‘managed decline’ by generations of politicians, the armed forces have likewise been decimated until we faced a situation recently with the outbreak of the war in Iran, when Britain was seemingly incapable of dispatching, at short notice, a single warship to the defense of one of her sovereign bases overseas, this one in Cyprus, recently attacked.”
“It is too small.”
“We operate four Vanguard class ballistic missile submarines and at any one time one is supposed to be on patrol, one is undergoing training, one is in refit and one is undergoing trials.”
“We do know that the aging V-bot are requiring more frequent and longer refits and maintenance to stay in service. This of course is common sense. These are highly complex but elderly pieces of machinery. Your car goes the same way after all.”
“In 2023, the oldest boat in the class, HMS Vanguard, was returned to service after a refit lasting seven years. So between 2016 and 2023, officially only three V-boats were doing the work of four. That must have meant that each patrol was extended from three to four months, adding enormous strain to crews running submerged for such long periods of time.”
“Currently, HMS Victorious, the second boat in the class, is also in long-term refit from 2023, for at least three to four years, perhaps longer.”
“HMS Vengeance, the fourth boat, entered a long overhaul period and reactor refueling between March 2012 and February 2016. All this means that the Royal Navy only has three V-boats in operation at any one time, not four as advertised, with one always out of service in refit at any one time.”
“The state of Britain’s inadequate flotilla of fleet submarines is truly shocking. We have six Astute class fleet submarines in the Navy, which is too few, and, incredibly, in March 2026, only one is operational.”
“HMS Astute is undergoing a midlife re-validation period that will last for years. HMS Ambush has been in long-term maintenance since 2022. HMS Artful has been undergoing regeneration and maintenance since 2023. HMS Audacious has been in refit since 2023. And HMS Agamemnon is undergoing testing and sea trials and won’t actually enter full-time service until March 2027.”
“That leaves HMS Anson as the only operational British fleet submarine at this time. One active hunter/killer submarine to cover the entire fleet. She is currently out in the Middle East after leaving her base in Western Australia. Which military genius thought it was a good idea to reduce the hunter/killer fleet to just six boats?”
“Britain currently has two enormous carriers, though insufficient surface vessels to protect them properly. Only one is actually operational, HMS Prince of Wales, held at high readiness to sail to support military operations in the Middle East. Though without a protective umbrella of destroyers and frigates, she could very well end up being a three billion pound target.”
“The other one, HMS Queen Elizabeth, is in dry dock at Rosyth in Scotland, undergoing extensive repairs to her extremely temperamental propulsion system.” The need for adequate carrier fleet coverage is why the decommissioning of the USS Nimitz has been delayed until 2027.
“Successive governments have seen fit to think that only six destroyers are adequate, which is clearly deranged and incredibly irresponsible. So, out of six vessels, how many are operational in March 2026? A grand total of two. HMS Dragon, a vessel recently in the news that was supposed to be sent to Cyprus to protect British interests there, and HMS Duncan. The other four are all laid up for one reason or another. The class leader, HMS Daring, is preparing to return to service after an absence of eight years under refit.” Given that it generally takes three to five years for a complete stem-to-stern overhaul and refueling for an American aircraft carrier, eight years for a destroyer seems beyond excessive.
“And what about the frigates, the workhorse of the fleet? Here things have improved slightly. The Royal Navy has a fleet of seven type 23 frigates and in March 2026, five are active. Two are not. HMS Richmond is due to be decommissioned this year after 31 years service with no replacement. And HMS Kent is undergoing deep maintenance at Devport since 2024. But only five operational frigates is still a shockingly low figure. They are all old vessels as well.”
“If we compare today’s active fleet with the fleet that retook the Falklands in 1982, the sorry state of the Navy is plain to see. If another Falklands type crisis was to emerge today, could we deal with it? Probably not.”
“In 1982, the Royal Navy was quite large. Britain at the time had 3 aircraft carriers, 12 destroyers, compared to 6 today, and 43 frigates, compared to just 7 today.”
“In 1982, the Royal Navy deployed the Falkland’s task force, which was 2 aircraft carriers, 8 destroyers, and 16 frigates, plus an assortment of other vessels, and still managed to fulfill its other worldwide obligations.”
“If the Falklands kicked off today, the Royal Navy could at a stretch deploy one aircraft carrier, two destroyers, and five frigates, but only if it stripped all active vessels from all other duties worldwide.”
“If you look hard enough, you will find that another class of warship is actually doing most of the work in 2026, while the bigger warships remain largely out of action, the River-class Offshore Patrol Vessels.”
“At a little under 2,000 tons each, this class are really corvettes or sloops, the type of small warship that existed in earlier Royal Navy fleets, but they don’t have that designation today due to not being armed with anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, just guns.” That sounds like a political rather than military decision.
“Retrofitting these vessels might be a good idea to make them more like little frigates or corvettes to fill out the Navy’s pool of warships. Currently, there are seven vessels in service, and, incredibly all seven are currently operational. From protecting the seas around Britain to protecting the Falkland Islands and also deploying to the South Pacific, these insufficiently armed vessels are really doing the jobs of frigates and destroyers, which is an alarming indictment of the state of the Royal Navy in 2026.”
“A tiny navy with lots of commitments and too few ships and personnel, crippled by decades of political mismanagement, and now barely able to send to sea a single submarine or destroyer, let alone a fleet.”
It’s been a sad decline for what was once the biggest and best navy in the world. But Britain’s political class has made the decision that they were rather hand out generous welfare benefits to unassimilated Muslim illegal aliens than fund an adequate navy…
When last we checked, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was busy trying to shove Copilot, their AI tool, into every crevice of every Microsoft product. Finally, enough users seem to have complained loudly enough to get them to rethink the strategy.
Microsoft is vowing to focus on quality with future Windows 11 releases, which includes better performance and reeling in the company’s Copilot footprint over the OS.
“Quality” and “performance” go together with Windows like vanilla ice cream and used motor oil.
On Friday, Microsoft President for Windows and Devices, Pavan Davuluri, announced the “commitment to quality” in both a blog post and an email to users.
The plan calls for bolstering the “performance, reliability and well-crafted experiences” over the OS for this year.
That sort of suggests that “performance, reliability and well-crafted experiences” were not priorities for Windows in previous years, doesn’t it?
“These areas have meaningful impact on how you experience Windows: how fast it starts and responds, how stable it is under real workloads, and how consistent and thoughtful the experience feels,” Davuluri wrote.
PC users will be happy to know that one goal is reducing Windows 11’s resource usage to free up more capacity.
This would be great news if anyone trusted them to do that. Countless times in the past, Microsoft has pledged to reduce resource usage in Windows, but the bloat always returns.
Another priority is “less noise, less distraction and more control across the OS.”
Surprisingly, the blog post makes little mention of AI. Instead, Davuluri merely says the company wants “to be thoughtful about how and where we bring AI into Windows.”
“You will see us be more intentional about how and where Copilot integrates across Windows, focusing on experiences that are genuinely useful and well‑crafted. As part of this, we are reducing unnecessary Copilot entry points, starting with apps like Snipping Tool, Photos, Widgets and Notepad,” he said. Users can expect the change to roll out this month and in the next for Windows 11 preview releases.
Finally, the backslash against MicroSlop has gotten so loud that it’s even penetrated Redmond’s C-Ring. This is indeed progress, given that earlier this month Microsoft was literally banning users from its Discord for using the term. So give them credit for at least realizing that they have a problem.
Davuluri made the announcement months after he faced backlash for tweeting that “Windows is evolving into an agentic OS,” which caused some users to retort the company was obsessing about AI over basic Windows 11 performance. A January Windows 11 release that prevented PCs from booting up or going to sleep sparked more complaints about the OS’s stability.
There’s that vaunted Microsoft quality again.
Last month, Davuluri indicated he was taking the criticism seriously. Microsoft is also facing increased competition from Apple, which released its most affordable MacBook so far, the Neo, which has been a hit among consumers and reviewers.
Yeah, let’s talk about the state of Windows-based PCs and the competition. This was supposed to be a big year for PCs, but then reality hit.
There was supposed to be a massive tailwind for the PC market this year. Windows 10 reached end-of-life in late 2025, meaning that somewhere around 1 billion PCs worldwide stopped receiving security updates. This is less of an issue in the consumer PC market, but it’s a big deal in the business PC market.
PC OEMs like HP were set up for success in 2026, but the AI boom has complicated the situation. Enormous demand for DRAM and NAND chips from the AI infrastructure build-out, coupled with memory chip manufacturers shifting production to server products, has left the PC market with scraps. Memory chip prices have surged, pushing up the bill of materials and forcing price increases.
Gartner expects PC prices to surge by 17% this year, prompting consumers and businesses to hold onto their current PCs for longer. Budget PCs as a category could essentially disappear, leaving a large swath of consumers in a bind. Gartner expects PC shipments to tumble by 10.4% in 2026.
In one of life’s little ironies, the same AI bubble that Microsoft was trying to shove down user’s throats is what’s making buying a new PC less affordable and crushing sales. But it’s not stopping Apple.
HP is an obvious loser in this scenario, but there’s a surprising winner as well: Apple….
Apple is also exposed to rising memory chip prices across its entire device business. However, the company is seizing an opportunity to bring Windows PC users into its ecosystem.
Apple announced the MacBook Neo last week. The 13-inch entry-level MacBook starts at $599, a price that PC OEMs like HP will have trouble hitting as memory prices spiral higher. The Neo is powered by the A18 Pro chip, the same SoC used in the iPhone 16 Pro family. Higher-end MacBooks use Apple’s M-series chips, but the underlying technology is essentially the same.
Apple has equipped the Neo with 8GB of unified RAM, shared between the CPU and GPU, as well as a 256GB solid-state drive. These are really the bare minimums for a usable PC, but it’s enough for a solid entry-level experience. Early reviews have been positive, although full third-party reviews haven’t yet arrived ahead of launch.
Apple is playing the long game here. If there was ever a time to launch a budget MacBook, it’s right now. With memory prices driving up the cost of Windows PCs, a $599 MacBook should be appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Apple also offers the Neo to the education market for a discounted price of $499.
If Apple can grow its Mac install base and steal away market share from Windows-based PCs, the company will be setting up its Mac business for stronger growth down the road. Once the memory situation normalizes and the macroeconomic environment improves, Apple will have a larger base of Mac users eager to upgrade when the time comes.
This is probably correct. $599 is getting down around the price range for what used to be called netbooks, though that market segment seems to have largely died, at least among Windows users. (There still seems to be a market there for Linux users.)
Remember: Apple is the company that saw other companies dumping dump-trucks full of cash into AI build-outs and went “Nah, bro, I’m good.”
Google will spend approximately $90 billion on AI infrastructure this year. Meta has committed $65 billion. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are collectively spending over $300 billion. Apple, meanwhile, is spending just $12.7 billion on capital expenditure for the entire fiscal year.
As a hardware manufacturer, Apple can just wait for the AI wars to shake out and partner with the winner (if any).
And here’s a mildly amusing video on the whole situation.
I’m pretty sure Microsoft users wouldn’t object to Copilot if it was something optional you could turn off, and if the granularity of control allowed users to keep it entirely out of products they don’t want it in. But no, letting users decide isn’t the Microsoft Way, and they had to try shoving it into everything to justify the huge sums of money they were throwing into AI.
Another Iran update: More Jihadis dirtnaped, Iran’s neighbors want the Islamic regime finished off, Mossad gives regime members person-to-person call warnings, Uncle Sam fast-tracks a lot of weapon sales to the Middle East, and the BRRRRRRRTTTTTTTT of Freedom rings out over the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel Defense Forces killed top Iranian intelligence official Esmaeil Khatib and Hamas commander Yahya Abu Labda in separate airstrikes in the Middle East overnight.
The IDF confirmed Khatib, Iran’s intelligence minister, was killed in the strike in Tehran on Wednesday morning.
“Khatib played a significant role during the recent protests throughout Iran, including the arrest & killing of protestors and led terrorist activities against Israelis & Americans around the world,” the IDF wrote in a post announcing Khatib’s death. “Similarly, he operated against Iranian citizens during the Mahsa Amini protests.”
The Hamas commander was reportedly killed during an IDF airstrike in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, according to the Times of Israel.
The strikes come a day after Israel killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, in an airstrike.
Abu Labda was a prominent figure in the development of Hamas’s precision missile project, according to the Times of Israel.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) for the first time hit Iranian naval targets in the Caspian Sea on Wednesday, striking infrastructure and ships at the port of Bandar Anzali in northern Iran, at a distance of some 1,300 kilometers (over 800 miles) from Israel.
In addition, the IAF continued striking targets belonging to the Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij militia, and the Air Force, among others.
The Israeli military confirmed on Thursday that the strikes in Bandar Anzali hit several ships, a repair facility, as well as a headquarters controlling naval operations in the Caspian Sea.
The US has deployed A-10 Warthogs attack jets, Ah-64 Apache helicopters, and 5,000-pound ground penetrator bombs to take out Iranian drones, boats, and mines to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, America’s top general said Thursday.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, vowed at a Pentagon news conference that the US would “hunt and kill” all of Tehran’s weapons facilities and assets being used against the strait, a critical trade route through which 20% of the world’s oil supply is transported.
“We continue to hunt and kill afloat assets, including more than 120 vessels and 44 minelayers,” Caine told reporters alongside War Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Simon Whistler has a meaty update on the war, including how all the Persian Gulf nations now agree that the Islamic Republic of Iran must go.
“Iran’s response to this war has managed to achieve something truly remarkable. [Ali Larijani]’s own neighbors, who had previously gone to bat for them, are now done dodging missiles and are reportedly pushing Washington to eliminate the Iranian threat for good, destroying the tools of repression.”
Skipping over the deaths of Ali Larijani and Gholam Reza Soleimani, previously reported here.
“Since the war began, American and Israeli forces have been running what amounts to a parallel campaign alongside the more headline grabbing strikes on nuclear sites and missile infrastructure. This campaign has been aimed squarely at the regime’s domestic repression capabilities and infrastructure, and it’s been accelerating massively in recent days. These targets should tell you something about what this part of the campaign is actually designed to do. Destroying missile launchers and stockpiles might degrade Iran’s ability to hit back, but destroying a law enforcement station and the men who run it degrades Iran’s ability to keep the lid on a country that it only barely had a grasp on before all of this kicked off.”
Skipping lightly over news of Iranians celebrating the traditional Chaharshanbe Suri fire festival, and the regime cracking down on same (no Zoroastrian fire festivals allowed in Islamic Iran), because it’s hard to get a sense of scale there.
“Noras, or Persian New Year falls on March 20th this year. This holiday is historically one of the largest public gatherings in Iranian life and has often been a flash point for protests against the regime. Last year, they arrested dozens of people across multiple provinces during Nar and that was before any of this broke out. this year. Suffice it to say, the situation has uh changed a bit. We don’t want to rest too much on Naras as a make or break moment, though. But it nevertheless represents a significant test of the coalition’s core theory for ousting or at least seriously pressuring the regime. Degrade their tools of oppression enough and the population will be able to do the rest.”
“The Guards have never been a domestic military force, but instead an ideologically driven group of hardliners explicitly set up to defend the Islamic Republic’s continued existence, no matter what the cost. Whatever comes next on the streets of Tehran, it does not appear likely that these men will simply lay down their weapons and go quietly into that good night.”
“The IRGC’s hardliner stance did not just reveal the power dynamics going on in Tehran, though. It helped to reshape the entire region’s posture in ways that would have been difficult to imagine just a few weeks ago. Before the war started, the Gulf States were the closest thing that Iran has to a coalition against American military action. Despite hosting US bases, most of them had adamantly pushed the White House not to strike Iran and were actively working to try and find common ground between Washington and Iran so they can avoid conflict.”
“While this was partially out of self-preservation interests, they knew the conflict in the region is never good for their bottom line, at least in the short term. They were still some of the best friends that Tehran had left. The Emirates had spent years rebuilding its relationship with Iran, and Aman’s foreign minister was in Washington discussing the matter with Vice President JD. Vance the day before the strikes took place. None of them doubted that Iran posed a threat. They hosted US bases for a reason, after all. But they calculated that living with the Iranian threat would be preferable instead of being largely defenseless in a war.”
“Iran’s response to Operation Epic Fury settled that debate in about 72 hours. Since February the 28th, Iran has launched over 1,800 projectiles split between ballistic missiles and drones at the UAE alone.”
“Bahrain took it even further, branding Iran treacherous. Bahrain even took the lead in sponsoring a UN Security Council resolution condemning Iran for its targets in this conflict which passed with unusually lopsided support. While not everyone throughout the Gulf was quite as forceful as that, they’ve all been moving in the same direction.”
“Behind the public statements urging peace, the private messaging to Washington has been far more direct: ‘Finish the job.'”
“Gulf officials have been pushing the Trump administration for what amounts to a permanent end to Iran’s ability to threaten their infrastructure.”
“In the space of three weeks, Iran has managed to turn every Gulf state that was lobbying Washington on its behalf into a partner actively backing the campaign to destroy its military capabilities. It is by almost any measure one of the most self-defeating foreign policy decisions a country has made in the modern Middle East.”
“A recent Goldman Sachs stress test published on March 15th showed that if the strait remained effectively closed through April, Qatar and Kuwait could see their full-year GDP contract by 14%, the worst since the 1990 Gulf War. The UAE and Saudi Arabia wouldn’t be quite as hard hit, but they’d both take a 5 and 3-point hit, respectively.”
Whistler also offers up a nice roundup of the current state of Israel’s incursion into Lebanon: “By March 16th, at least three separate IDF divisions were operating simultaneously inside of southern Lebanon, pushing through Kiam, Bins Jabel, and Marion in the most significant ground operations since their 2006 intervention. Evacuation orders are now covering everything south of the Latani, which when combines with the evacuated areas in the Bekaa Valley and southern Beirut totals to roughly 14% of the entirety of Lebanon’s territory.”
“Israeli Defense Minister [Israel] Katz has said at least parts of the operation are modeled explicitly on Gaza, offered no timeline for withdrawal, and some ministers are already floating the idea of a semi-permanent security zone. For now, there are no signs of a push toward Beirut or anything beyond the Litani.”
“In the last 48 hours alone, [Lebanese President Joseph Aoun] publicly called Hezbollah’s decision to enter the war a trap and an almost overt ambush serving Iranian interests, warned that the country is on the path to become a second Gaza, and floated a four-point plan calling for an immediate ceasefire, international backing for the Lebanese armed forces to oversee disarmament, direct negotiations with Israel, and long-term border security agreements.”
“While all of this is unprecedented for a Lebanese president, Beirut is currently falling short of Israeli expectations for two reasons. First, Lebanon has a long history of promising to finally get tough on Hezbollah that, well, hasn’t exactly materialized. Second, and more pertinently, the LAF [Lebanese Armed Forces] are already struggling to implement the ban on Hezbollah’s military operations that we reported on just a week ago. Hezbollah’s attack was earth-shattering for Beirut, which appeared to have finally found a moment of cross sectarian agreement that Hezbollah simply had to go. And while there were initially promising signs that the LAF was taking this seriously, the army has largely stalled. LAF commander [Rodolphe Haykal] has essentially refused to enforce the government’s ban on Hezbollah military activities, and the United States has even suspended some coordination with the LAF over it. The country’s prime minister has considered firing him for the whole debacle.”
“Now look, in fairness to Haykal, this isn’t just some random act of indifference where he’d rather sit around and watch Warfronts than go out and disarm the group. Though we couldn’t blame him if that was the case, could we? Rather, his calculation is that 20 to 30% of the LA Shia and would possibly refuse to mobilize against Hezbollah entirely, risking a total fracture of the military. Keep in mind that in Lebanon, sectarian identity is front and center just about everything that happens, especially in politics, and the LAF is broadly considered to be the last cross-sector institution in the country.”
“All that said, the inaction here is seriously jeopardizing the country’s sovereignty. The lesson that Israel took away from the October 7th attacks, rightly or wrongly, was that they couldn’t afford to allow a hostile force to exist along its borders anymore. In the aftermath of the 2024 ceasefire with Lebanon, Israel made it clear that disarmament of the group was an absolute bare minimum condition. And the tragic thing is that the LAF largely delivered on this. Earlier this year, they completed phase one of the operation. And while it was slowgoing, potentially so slow that Hezbollah was actually rearming faster elsewhere in the country than it was being disarmed, the LAF nevertheless demonstrated that it could deliver.”
“And all of this isn’t helped by the fact that even today, right now, Hezbollah continues to launch on Israel. While their stockpile has been severely reduced and seems likely to be further reduced in their ongoing clashes with the IDF, they don’t appear to be anywhere close to surrender.”
One of the reasons Iran was caught off guard at the opening of this war is that its leadership did not take Yahya Sinwar or Hassan Nasrallah’s approach. The Iranian regime—a state built on terror—was acting like a state and forgot what happens to those who spread terror. What Hezbollah and Hamas understood, and what Iran forgot, is that when you attack Israel, you become prey.
After the regime’s decapitation on the first day, Larijani grasped that reality. As Iran’s most senior surviving security official, he never stayed in the same place twice, and maintained exceptionally high security awareness.
In the end, it took a combination of precise intelligence, special ground capabilities, and rapid decision-making at both the political level and the by chief of staff to complete the operation. The time between the intelligence alert and the order for the strike was less than an hour; that’s an incredibly tight kill chain. This wasn’t a Hamas or Hezbollah target; exploiting this opportunity meant scrambling aircraft all the way to Iran.
Snip.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Israel is chasing internal repression forces from their headquarters to secret muster points at sports stadiums, even to neighborhood police stations. All in an effort to demonstrate to the Iranians that the regime’s fangs have been removed.
Meanwhile, Israel is calling mid- and low-level commanders, threatening them and their families if they don’t stand aside in the event of an uprising.
One conversation is worth recounting.
“Can you hear me?” a Mossad agent can be heard, speaking in Farsi. “We know everything about you. You are on our blacklist, and we have all the information about you.”
“OK,” the commander said in the recording.
“I called to warn you in advance that you should stand with your people’s side,” the Mossad agent said. “And if you will not do that, your destiny will be as your leader. Do you hear me?”
“Brother, I swear on the Quran, I’m not your enemy,” the commander said. “I’m a dead man already. Just please come help us.”
Last night, a very senior Israeli source outlined to me Israel’s five objectives in this war:
To act jointly with the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
To permanently deny any future Iranian regime the ability to again close the strait — including through the development of alternative pipelines.
To dismantle Iran’s weapons industry, with an emphasis on ballistic missile capabilities — this time targeting not just equipment but the factories that produce it.
To complete the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has authorized the country’s military to kill Iranian and Hezbollah officials without explicit approval from higher-ups.
Katz announced the blanket order as he alerted Israeli residents that the military had taken out top Iranian intelligence official Esmaeil Khatib. Katz said he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorized the directive overnight.
The purpose of the authorization is to thwart the possibility of delays in Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion against Iran, according to Israeli network Channel 12. Katz vowed that there were more “significant surprises” to come as part of the development.
In the past several days, targeted Israeli strikes have assassinated several top Tehran officials, dealing a devastating blow to the Iranian regime’s power structure as the war moves well into its third week.
Snip.
The assassinations come as Israel has ramped up its attacks targeting Basij checkpoints and infrastructure. The Guard’s Basij unit has notably been targeted in the war, as the paramilitary force has long been seen as the leading military unit behind the deadly crackdown on Iranian protesters over the winter and behind repression in general against regime dissidents.
The Israeli military is targeting Basij personnel and facilities as the country seeks to weaken the Islamic regime enough to encourage Iranian citizens to topple the power structure.
“We’re undermining this regime in the hope of giving the Iranian people a chance to oust it,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Tuesday.
Next regime figure to get droned announced. “Hossein Dehghan, who was sanctioned in 2019 for his alleged role in an attack that killed 241 American troops, has been named to replace the assassinated Ali Larijani. According to a report by Iran International, Iran appointed former Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan on Thursday as the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council,”
The Trump administration announced plans to sell more than $16.5 billion worth of radar systems, air defense equipment, and fighter aircraft weaponry to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan Thursday, as Iranian missiles and drones continued to hit sensitive infrastructure across the Gulf region.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued an emergency waiver to bypass the mandatory congressional review period for the sales, the Pentagon said in its press release.
For the UAE, the State Department approved $2.1 billion worth of 10 FS-LIDS counter-drone interception systems, along with 240 Coyote backpack-carried drone interceptor systems, along with related sensors and munitions.
Another planned sale to the UAE includes a THAAD long-range discrimination radar, as well as Sentinel A-4 uplinkers and THAAD tactical operations and launch and control systems. A third sale set for Abu Dhabi includes $644 million worth of F-16 munitions and upgrades, including GBU-39/B small diameter bombs and Joint Direct Attack Munitions guidance systems (JDAMs), along with 400 AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missiles and eight guidance sections, the Pentagon said.
Kuwait is set to receive $8 billion in Lower-Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) radars, the administration further announced Thursday, along with a slew of accompanying electronic equipment. Jordan, meanwhile, is slated to receive $70.5 million worth of maintenance, logistics, and munitions support for its F-16s, C-130s and F-5 aircraft.
The planned sales come as Iran has targeted sensitive early warning and missile defense radar sensors in several US-aligned countries in the Gulf. Iran has also repeatedly struck civilian centers and, increasingly over the last 48 hours, oil and gas infrastructure with drones and missiles.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday praised Gulf states for their support for Washington’s war effort, saying Iran’s “reckless” pattern of counterattacks has brought some of those countries “squarely into our orbit.” He specifically named the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Speaking alongside Hegseth at the Pentagon, the US’ top-ranking general, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, said the US military will continue to work with Gulf states “to help them to improve any defensive capabilities that they need.”
Missile plant hit: “Karaj Surface-to-Surface Missile Plant” destroyed by U.S. strikes. This was March 1, but CENTCOM only released the images today.
Iran evidently managed to damage an F-35:
“Likely hit by a Qaem-118 short range SAM.” The pilot returned to base safely and made an emergency landing.
Once again, this was just what I was able to gather from various sources. If you think I’ve missed something, feel free to share it in the comments below.
Lots of interesting military news not specific to Iran or Ukraine pops up on YouTube that doesn’t quite rise to the level of a separate post. So here’s a tab-clearing video roundup.
Simon Whistler rounds up 2025 conflicts that we’re not paying much attention to.
In order covered, they are:
The Sahel’s Growing Islamist Insurgency (which I have covered off and on since 2019)
Latin America’s Organized Crime Crisis
Failure of Colombia’s ‘Total Peace’ Leads to Widespread Conflict
Nigeria’s Overlapping Conflicts
The Anglophone Crisis In Cameroon
Cabo Delgado’s Islamic State Insurgency (in Mozambique)
Haiti’s Meltdown
The Congo’s Proxy War
The Amhara Insurgency (in Ethiopia)
The Papua Conflict is the Deadliest War You’ve Never Heard Of (in Indonesia)
Sudan Suffers in Silence
Some of these I’ve covered, but several are new to me as well…
Habitual Linecrosser explains how modern jamming actually works.
He goes into a great deal of detail on different systems, ranges, wavelengths, radar locks, etc. Plus a look at Venezuela operation. If you’re interested, watch the whole thing.
Lots of people (myself included) have criticized the Pentagon over not doing enough to prepare for a possible war with China. One thing they are doing that’s flown under the radar: Spending $10 billion to refurbish long abandoned World War II airbases on the “second island chain.”
Those islands are:
Guam
Tinian
Yap
Palau
Kwajalein
Those familiar with the Pacific theater in World War II will remember the battles against Imperial Japan for control of those islands (save Yap, which was bypassed). The battle for Palau was an especially deadly and bitter struggle for American troops that produced eight Medal of Honor recipients.
China, of course, isn’t taking this lying down, and Chinese “businessmen” have been leasing land next to American installations of many of the islands, while China refurbishes airbases on islands like Kiribati.
