Posts Tagged ‘Triggernometry’

Venezuela Fallout Roundup For January 5, 2026

Monday, January 5th, 2026

Here’s a roundup of Venezuela news since the successful operation to snatch him on Saturday.

  • Will Venezuela’s leaders play ball with President Trump? Signs point to yes.

    At a moment Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and his wife Flores are set to appear before a New York federal judge on various drug-trafficking and gun-running related charges, his VP and now apparently Interim President Delcy Rodriguez is offering a huge olive branch.

    This is unsurprising given the staunchly socialist, pro-Maduro number two under the ousted president is herself under immense pressure from Washington, and still facing down the barrel of Uncle Sam’s gun – or rather the collective might of the Pentagon’s persisting US naval blockade just off Latin America’s coast.

    he’s quickly expressed her willingness to cooperate with the United States on the future of Venezuela, in a significant shift in tone following Maduro’s Friday into Saturday morning ‘shock’ abduction by US special forces.

    “We consider it a priority to move towards a balanced and respectful relationship between the US and Venezuela,” Rodriguez wrote on Telegram Sunday.

    And more than that, her following words convey willingness of Caracas to bend the knee: “We extend an invitation to the US government to work together on a cooperation agenda, aimed at shared development, within the framework of international law, and to strengthen lasting community coexistence,” she stated.

    Snip.

    President Trump has warned that if authorities in Venezuela fail to cooperate, the United States would carry out a second strike on Venezuela, noting that any decision to deploy ground troops there would depend on how the situation develops and how Venezuela responds.

    So cooperate with the United States in transition to a Democratic, non-Socialist government (and presumably retire to seized mansions with shares of their ill-gotten loot), or get droned. This should be an easy choice…

  • So who’s in charge of Venezuela now? President Trump says we are.

    President Donald Trump said the United States will “run” Venezuela until a peaceful transition of power is executed, following an operation carried out in the Latin American country early Saturday morning that successfully captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

    “We’re going to run this country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” Trump said from Mar-a-Lago during a press conference. “We want peace, liberty, and justice for the great people of Venezuela, and that includes many from Venezuela that are now living in the United States and want to go back to their country. It’s their homeland.”

    Asked on Saturday who would be running the country, Trump said that they would be designating people but that, “for a period of time,” it would largely be those standing behind him at the press conference — apparently meaning Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine.

    The United States is in Venezuela, and will remain in the country until a “proper transition can take place,” Trump said.

    General Caine said the attack was known as “Operation Absolute Resolve.” The president clarified that no American lives or military equipment were lost during the operation, and the embargo on Venezuelan oil also remains in full effect.

  • Just how dominant America’s military was in carrying out the operation is covered by this France24 clip:

    • “Only the US can carry out this kind of mission, so far from home at such a scale and with such coordination.”
    • “At least they’re the only country to have proved that they can still do it.”
    • “And now when we hear that jargon from Dan Caine about air and space support providing layering effects. That’s not just firepower, but it’s everything that’s needed to protect those helicopters as they went into that highly defended capital city and got out again. This requires not just the latest in satellite technology, high-tech jamming, stealth drones, but also just months of old school intelligence, fighter jet platforms that have been tried and tested over decades, and of course, sheer numbers just to provide that operational redundancy.”
    • The U.S. also managed to blackout Caracas during the attack.
    • “We can assume that the Space Force obviously provided latest state-of-the-art mapping to their forces, and potentially threw Venezuelan tracking off the scent as well. The Americans would have also used their EA-18G Growler aircraft which we know were involved. They have highly sophisticated jamming technology. The F-35s that were used can also use electronic warfare capabilities and jamming. So that could well have knocked out a lot of the Venezuelan radar.”

    Combined arms are hard, but no one does them as well, or has the sheer reach, of the United States military.

  • More on just how the operation was carried out.

    The public narrative, stitched together from US statements and multiple reports, looks like this: months of planning, a narrow window, a rapid “snatch” mission at a heavily protected residence, and a fast exfiltration under fire.

    Thank to reporting by the New York Times, we know the CIA has been on the ground in Venezuela for some time. They were almost certainly collecting the intelligence necessary for this exact operation.

    US officials described a five-hour operation with more than 150 aircraft launching from roughly 20 bases across the Western Hemisphere, with a helicopter-borne ground force as the core maneuver element.

    If those numbers are accurate, this was not a raid. This was a joint campaign compressed into one night.

    Start with the centerpiece: USS Iwo Jima.

    A quick aside: When I was in high school in Texas, I was a member of the Air Force junior ROTC. We were invited to march in three Mardi Gras parades in New Orleans, and we stayed aboard the USS Iwo Jima while we were there.

    A Wasp-class LHD is a Swiss Army knife that swims. It gives you a flight deck, fuel, maintenance, command spaces, medical capacity, and the ability to surge rotary-wing sorties without asking anyone’s permission to use their runway.

    If you want to push helicopters into a denied or semi-denied area and pull them back out fast, a big-deck amphib is the kind of platform you park nearby.

    That matters because the reported “tip of the spear” was US special operations aviation. Multiple reports point to a large contingent of 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment or SOAR helicopters, also called the Night Stalkers, involved.

    The 160th’s whole personality is flying low, at night, in bad weather, into places that don’t want them there, and bringing your people home anyway.

    For reference, it was the Night Stalkers who played a critical role in the raid that killed Osama bin Laden (Operation Neptune Spear).

    I’ve personally ridden with the Night Stalkers at Fort Campbell while in the Army… They can do some crazy shit with helicopters. I should note that I was not special forces, I was just hitching a ride as a grunt.

    In Venezuela, those helicopters carried US Army Delta Force soldiers along with FBI agents who would perform the actual snatch (or kill if Maduro resisted).

    Some readers might be wondering what the difference is between Delta Force and a group like the US Navy SEALs.

    Well, first of all, SEALs always have a promising career in Hollywood waiting for them after their service… Or a lucrative book deal. Fucking prima donnas.

    Delta are the “quiet professionals”.

    Jokes aside, Delta Force and SEAL teams are both elite Tier 1 special mission units under JSOC, handling complex counterterrorism, hostage rescue, and direct action missions, but differ in their backgrounds and specializations. Delta excels in land-based, covert operations, while SEAL Team Six (DEVGRU) retains maritime roots, training SEALs for sea-based operations.

    SEALs could have easily performed this operation and they may have been involved, but my initial sources are telling me it was Delta.

    Reports from multiple outlets confirm that FBI Hostage Rescue Team (HRT) agents, physically executed the takedown of Nicolás Maduro inside Caracas.

    That pairing, America’s most elite special mission unit (Delta) and its most capable federal law enforcement strike team, is unusual but not unprecedented.

    It signals one important thing: Washington wanted Maduro alive and in custody, not vaporized.

    Delta Force, formally known as 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta (Airborne), is the Army’s top-tier counterterrorism and direct action unit. Their bread and butter isn’t messy firefights or holding ground, it’s surgical raids, high-value target snatches, and hostage rescue under conditions that would make most mortals short-circuit.

    If a door needs breaching in a palace defended by an armored brigade, Delta is who goes through it.

    The FBI’s Hostage Rescue Team, meanwhile, exists in that strange intersection between domestic law enforcement and tactical counterterrorism. They’re federal agents first but trained to the same operational standard as their military counterparts.

    When American leadership needs a mission with law enforcement optics like arrest warrants, indictments, legal custody, the HRT adds the thin blue veneer that separates an extradition from an invasion.

    In practice, the operation probably looked like this: Delta cleared the perimeter and neutralized armed resistance. HRT followed close behind, securing the detainees and beginning immediate chain-of-custody procedures to satisfy Justice Department requirements.

    The Night Stalkers with their Delta/FBI contingent were supported by an impressive stack of US military hardware: F-22s, F-35s, F/A-18s, EA-18s, E-2s, B-1 bombers, Sentry, and “numerous” remotely piloted aircraft.

    F-22s are air dominance and high-end insurance. They deter or swat down any manned aerial response, and they do it before the other side’s pilots finish their climb.

    F-35s are the quiet burglars. They sniff emitters, map threats, and cue strikes. If you want to dismantle air defenses quickly, you bring the jet that was built to hunt radars. We currently don’t know how many air defense systems the F-35s removed, but I’m sure we will learn more in the coming days.

    F/A-18s and EA-18Gs are the Navy’s workhorses for strike and electronic attack. The Growler exists to turn an air defense network into a migraine.

    An E-2 Hawkeye is the Navy’s “baby Sentry” airborne battle management. It gives the air picture, deconflicts assets, and helps keep fratricide from becoming the main headline.

    B-1s presence signals: if you escalate, we will flatten the area. They also provide standoff fires and a psychological effect that Venezuelan air defenders will be aware of.

    E-3 Sentry is the quarterback.

    I doubt B-1s were on call, but the presence of the other assets seems logical. (Hat tip: Sarah Hoyt at Instapundit.)

  • Suchomimus has a detailed look at exactly where U.S. forces landed near Maduro’s bunker to capture him, and what Venezuelan military equipment they took out in the process:

    • Among those taken out was a Russian 9K37 Buk SAM system. “Russian air defense systems proving to be just as useless in Venezuela as they are in Ukraine and Russia.”
    • “There were some reports a few weeks back that Russia tried to bulk up Venezuela’s air defense by sending two S300 launchers and two book SAM systems, as well as up to a dozen to SAM systems as well….And all for naught. The American operation was a complete success, with zero American aircraft shot down.”
  • Did Chinese radar also fail?

  • How are ordinary Venezuelans taking Maduro’s capture? They’re celebrating:

  • Heh:

  • Triggernometry adds some background on just how much socialism in Venezuela sucks:

    Plus this: “Nicholas’s Maduros’s nephews were captured by the DA in Haiti with kilos of cocaine. They were brought here. They went to trial. They were declared guilty. And then Biden pardoned them and sent them back.”

    Maybe part of the eventual settlement with Venezuela can include banks records for all regime payments to American politicos…

  • And speaking of Democrats, they’re melting down over Maduro’s capture.

    While Venezuelans hit the streets in wild celebration, popping bottles and celebrating freedom, Democrats in Washington, D.C., clutched their pearls and went into full meltdown mode, accusing Trump of getting us into a war and violating the Constitution.

    “Trump’s unilateral operation last night was an illegal act of war without Congress’s authorization,” Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) claimed.

    “Maduro is a brutal dictator who has oppressed the Venezuelan people, but our constitution does not yield for bad people. If Congress is to survive as an institution, the Republican majority must join us exercising our power to hold this administration accountable for this flagrant violation of the constitution.”

    He wasn’t the only Democrat to claim that Trump acted illegally.

    “Without authorization from Congress, and with the vast majority of Americans opposed to military action, Trump just launched an unjustified, illegal strike on Venezuela,” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) claimed.

    “He says we don’t have enough money for healthcare for Americans—but somehow we have unlimited funds for war??”

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) also chimed in.

    “President Trump’s unilateral military action to attack another country and seize Maduro — no matter how terrible a dictator he is — is unconstitutional and threatens to drag the U.S. into further conflicts in the region,” she argued.

    “The American people voted for lower costs, not for Trump’s dangerous military adventurism overseas that won’t make the American people safer.”

    Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) similarly accused Trump of getting the United States into an “illegal” war.

    “This war is illegal, it’s embarrassing that we went from the world cop to the world bully in less than one year,” he said.

    But these claims don’t hold water.

    “Trump does not need congressional approval for this type of operation,” explains constitutional scholar Jonathan Turley. “Presidents, including Democratic presidents, have launched lethal attacks regularly against individuals. President Barack Obama killed an American citizen under this ‘kill list’ policy. If Obama can vaporize an American citizen without even a criminal charge, Trump can capture a foreign citizen with a pending criminal indictment without prior congressional approval.”

  • You know who else hates Maduro’s capture? The current leaders of China, Russia and Iran.

    President Trump’s historic intervention in Venezuela offers needed hope to friends of freedom around the world and nervous traders in the oil market.

    A pro-America, free-market government could unleash the country’s oil potential and lower energy prices around the globe. This is bad news for the Kremlin and clerics in Iran, who need high oil prices to perpetuate their regimes.

    For decades, Venezuela’s socialist leaders have plunged their country into a black hole of poverty. Populist leader Hugo Chavez promised his voters unlimited riches. Nicolás Maduro, Chavez’s hand-picked successor, turned those hopes into an economic nightmare.

    Chavez and Maduro seized the infrastructure of American oil firms in their country and ran the national economy into the ground. Under Maduro’s rule, the economic decline in Venezuela has been worse than the Great Depression in the US.

    In the 1930s, America’s GDP declined by 30%.

    Under Maduro, Venezuela’s economy has shrunk by about 75%, and Moscow and Beijing have been circling like vultures.

    Last year, China purchased around 568,000 barrels per day from Venezuela; and Beijing needs Venezuela to fuel its economy. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has been keen to keep the Maduro regime as a proxy in the Western Hemisphere.

    The loss of Maduro in Caracas, who has welcomed Russian weapons and support to prop up his wobbly regime, is a major blow to Moscow. It also sends a powerful message to dictators around the world who look to America’s rivals as an alternative to US leadership: When the chips are down, Putin and Xi Jinping can’t help you.

    While Maduro was in power, both Putin and Xi were eager to include oil-rich Venezuela in their “Axis of Aggressors.”

    Trump abruptly changed the geopolitical balance by putting Maduro in handcuffs. He can now put more pressure on Beijing and box out Moscow’s hopes for a sustained partnership with Caracas.

    The clerics in Tehran are also worried. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps needs Venezuela to enable its sanctions-evasion schemes that were in place under Maduro. Worse, the ghost tanker fleet that serviced the IRGC out of Venezuela is now in jeopardy. And with the prospect of increased Venezuelan oil exports, there’s a potential opportunity to put a squeeze on all remaining Iranian oil.

    Funny how often Democrats are on the save wavelength as the dictators in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran when it comes to opposing Donald Trump’s foreign policy successes…

  • Konstantin Kisin On Zelensky’s Cock-Up

    Tuesday, March 4th, 2025

    Triggernometry’s Konstantin Kisin, who goes to great pains to underline his own support for Ukraine resisting Russia’s illegal war of territorial aggression, points out that it was Zelensky who screwed up big time in his White House meeting with Trump.

  • “When I watched the full 50-minute press conference, it became clear that President Trump had actually done his best to do a deal and that it was President Zelensky who scuppered it through an ill-advised spat with J.D. Vance.”
  • “As if this wasn’t enough, Zelensky then proceeded to mutter an insult under his breath, and interrupt and argue with President Trump himself, which led to the deal offer being withdrawn and Zelensky being sent to his room without his supper.”
  • Zelensky “led his country in heroic defense against a brutal and barbaric invasion. He saw innocent Ukrainian civilians being slaughtered, tortured and raped. He watched missiles and drones rain down on his towns and cities. He welcomed Ukrainian prisoners of war in their return from Russian prisons and torture camps, only to discover they were emaciated, bruised and broken.”
  • Zelensky has received so many accolades across the world that “his negotiating position appears somewhat disconnected from reality.”
  • “He argued that Russia must pay for the war on the basis that, in history, whoever starts the war pays. What he appears to be missing is that this isn’t remotely true. In history, whoever wins makes the losing side pay. While neither side has defeated the other, Ukraine can hardly claim victory.”
  • “For all these reasons, the reality vortex he entered in the Oval Office would have been a shock to Zelensky.”
  • “To the current occupants of the White House, their advisors and their base, president Zelensky, and forgive me for putting it this bluntly, is an untrustworthy leader of a corrupt country on the other side of the world who keeps asking for money America doesn’t have to fight a war they neither care about nor feel he can win.” I think the majority of Trump’s supporters want to see Ukraine win, but don’t want to provide a blank check to accomplish it and/or don’t think it’s possible.
  • “To them this is just another forever war like Iraq or Afghanistan.”
  • “President Zelensky walked into a room in which people who don’t particularly like him, don’t particularly trust him and don’t particularly care about his just and righteous cause were nevertheless prepared to continue giving him money, weapons, and political support in order to make this problem go away. All he had to do was look grateful. When you’re attempting to convert other people’s goodwill into hard currency, that’s the bare minimum, and for 40 minutes Zelensky just about managed.”
  • “The way he challenged Vance directly in front of the cameras was catastrophically stupid.”
  • “Sure, if you hate Trump and Vance and think they’re taking part in the YouTube debate, then Zelensky made a valid point. But this wasn’t a debate. They’re all supposed to be on the same side and the person who has the most to lose from them not feeling like they’re on the same side is Zelensky, or more importantly, his nation.”
  • “In Europe, Zelensky is used to winning people over to his cause by claiming that Ukraine is all that stands between them and Vladimir Putin. We can argue about whether such claims are true, but the important thing is that, in Europe, we are much more receptive to this message for both cultural and pragmatic reasons. We are on the same continent as Russia, and NATO’s eastern border is now in contact with Russia. This point of contact would have been significantly extended had Ukraine been overrun.”
  • “These arguments don’t wash in America, and what’s worse, Americans hate people painting a negative picture of their society’s future. This is why I believe President Trump interrupted Zelensky when he claimed that America won’t be protected from Putin by an ocean and shut him down.”
  • “None of this is to suggest that Vance or Trump behaved perfectly, but they aren’t the ones asking for more money, weapons and diplomatic support.”
  • “Zelensky’s job is to realize that he stopped being a human being when he became president of a country relying on foreign aid to survive. He doesn’t have the luxury of righteousness, and his country cannot afford to have him lose control of his senses as he did so.”
  • “Is this salvageable? I believe it is for the following reasons: First, Trump said as much. He sends Zelensky home to get him to realize that he needs to stop messing around, and made it clear that discussions can resume when Zelensky is ready for peace.”
  • “Secondly, the facts on the ground make some sort of settlement brokered by the US inevitable. Without foreign support, Ukraine’s brave defense would fold within weeks, and Europe, despite the cheerleading of its politicians, does not have the military, industrial capacity, or popular will to support Ukraine in this way by itself.”
  • “Zelensky needs Trump. Trump, on the other hand wants this war to end, and despite the glee of his base, would not want to go down in history as the president who abandoned Ukraine.” The majority of Trump’s base is not anti-Ukraine, they’re anti-paying for it. And those who confidently predict what Trump will or won’t think or do in a given situation frequently turn out to be wrong…
  • “All Zelensky has to do is apologize for his tactless behavior, and recognize that, like it or not, if you’re fighting a war with someone else’s weapons, they are going to have a say in how that war ends.”
  • Since that disasterous meeting, of course, Zelensky has been singing a different tune, and may end up following Kisin’s advice and giving Trump everything he asked for. Stay tuned…

    “We’ve Been Through A North Korean Brainwashing Experiment”

    Wednesday, January 15th, 2025

    Eric Weinstein sat down with the Triggernometry guys (Konstantin Kisin and Francis Foster) to talk about the 2024 election and the Democrat Party’s radical diversion from “Democracy.”

  • Eric Weinstein: “A certain kind of base reality is too difficult to deny.”
  • Konstantin Kisin: “Well, if you keep losing elections, it’s too difficult to deny.”
  • EW: “They’ve lost one just now, but this is going to be a very consequential one. First of all, it puts JD Vance, who I consider a friend, on deck. Man is that guy smart and good, combines all sorts of aspects of progressivism. I think he ran a campaign with Donald Trump as a loyal number two, but JD is a powerhouse in and of himself.”
  • EW: “I think he could run a campaign that would just be irresistible to all sorts of people.”
  • EW: “I would like to just point out that you could easily have 12 years coming off of this election, and you could have a Supreme Court that was completely dominated by Donald Trump and JD Vance, and it will transform the country. So this is a very consequential election to have screwed up.”
  • EW: “Obama doesn’t matter.”
  • EW: “The Clintons are highly degraded.” I think he means as a political force, but the other way works as well.
  • EW: “This was such a bad story that no one knew how to defend it, and I also think that Kamla Harris’s apparent drop in IQ is due to the fact that nobody can explain the Democratic Party. It’s a series of horse trades and intellectual half measures. It doesn’t have any coherence.”
  • EW: “Are you the party of sweetness and light? Are you the party of the working class? Or are you really the party of the transgendered and financial billionaires worried about the carried interest exemption? It just didn’t make any sense, and there was no way to defend it and still got close to 50% of the popular [vote] because so many people are dependent on these narratives.”
  • Francis Foster: “To me the Democrat Party [is] divorced from reality in so many different ways. They talk about being Democratic, but Kamala Harris didn’t go through any primary. They just appointed her.”
  • EW: “You can’t say democracy is on the ballot. There’s no primary.”
  • EW: “The thing that inspires us, that gets us to put our right hand over our heart, is the idea of a government by, of, and for the people not perishing from this Earth.”
  • EW: [The idea] “it’s perfectly legal, perfectly permissible, to just select a candidate [is] an abomination.”
  • EW: “You’ve installed a candidate who was the worst candidate available, until she became America’s sweetheart, and the whiplash from that period of time just forced the Machinery to to reveal itself.”
  • FF: “And it seems like that’s one of the logical fallacies within the Democrat Party, but it’s just one after another after another.”
  • EW: “We’ve been through, like, a North Korean brainwashing experiment, and we can’t believe that this happened. It’s just so bad, and every single person of any kind of originality of thought or independence of mind rejects it.”
  • Weinstein notes that creative people in the trades (electricians, truckers, etc.) were never sucked into the woke mindset, because their jobs require them to be based in unforgiving reality. It was only among academics, PhDs and corporate workplaces that the woke virus spread. “That’s what’s going to have to collapse.”