Good question. Wish I knew. Or, more accurately, wish I knew more than what I can glean from various reports, which is that anti-Mubarak forces are getting a smackdown from pro-Mubarak forces, including (reportedly) police (secret and otherwise) in disguise. Beyond those clashes, its hard to tell what is going on. Maybe Mubarak waited until popular rage had run its course, and delayed the crackdown until fears of disorder and looting drove the majority of non-hardcore protesters off the street before beginning the crackdown.
The more I’ve read the past few days, the more I think that Mubarak survives until his promised stepping down in the September elections. What I’ve seen is lots of anti-Mubarak forces saying he has to step down now, he can’t survive, etc., as well as similar noises from various international governments, but no reports of Egyptian generals or colonels saying the same thing.
A few other interesting articles on the situation:
A summary of events as they have unfolded so far. It talks about Gamal Mubarak’s technocrat friends working economic miracles but their takeover of the ruling ruling NDP party alienated the army, which saw the NDP as a rival power.
Hosni Mubarak seems to have adopted an interesting strategy to deal with the unrest gripping his country: Let the worst of it rage with a minimum of reprisals and crackdowns, and then slowly but surely reassert his control using the police and the military. Such a strategy walks the fine line between appearing weak enough to let the revolution push him out of power, and a Tienanmen-type crackdown that leaves thousands dead. So far it seems to be working: Despite some blips and waivers, the army still appears to be following Mubarak’s orders. If they continue to do so, it’s hard to see how the called-for general strike can be total enough to paralyze the nation. And if gas and food continue to make it through, it’s hard to see the general masses being radicalized enough to join the call to oust Mubarak.
And here’s an interesting article placing the Egyptian situation in the context of higher global food prices, which is driving global unrest. So ethanol subsidies, which were supposed to ween us from dependence on unstable Middle Eastern sources of oil, are helping destabilize the Middle East. Good work, guys!
The Egyptian military and internal security forces have coordinated a crackdown for the hours ahead in an effort to clear the streets of the demonstrators. The interior minister has meanwhile negotiated his stay for the time being, in spite of widespread expectations that he, seen by many Egyptians as the source of police brutality in the country, would be one of the first ministers that would have to be sacked in order to quell the demonstrations. Instead, both Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and al-Adly, the two main targets of ire for the demonstrators, seem to be betting that they can ride this crisis out and remain in power. So far, the military seems to be acquiescing to these decisions.
Haaretz reports that military men are taking off their helmets and being hoisted by the crowd in Cairo, chanting “the people and the military are one.” (Hat tip: Belmonst Club.)
All the protest factions (including the Muslim brotherhood, who seem quite content to stay in the background for now) have settled on Mohamed ElBaradei as the leader and presumptive transition President should Mubarak fall. ElBaradei is reported to be at Tahrir Square.
Stratfor analyzes the Egyptian military, and the possibility that Islamist sympathizers exist within its ranks.
It would be great if the current unrest lead to a free, democratic government in Egypt. However, it is just as likely that events will lead to widespread Islamization of regional governments and another Arab-Israeli war.
1724: BBC Arabic correspondent Khaled Ezzelarab in Cairo reports: “Despite the curfew, demonstrators are surrounding the building of Egyptian radio and TV and trying to break into it. The building is guarded by armed forces, and the demonstrators are cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people.””
The vast majority of modern revolutions are not won by beating the government’s armies in the field, they’re won when the army no longer has the heart to fire on the people. If Mubarak still has the army on his side, he’ll survive the unrest. However, if he doesn’t, as the report above indicates, then it’s all over. The instant a dictator loses the army, he loses power. That’s why the Communist Chinese are still in power and Nicolae Ceausescu died of acute lead poisoning.
Some people have been linking to Al Jazeera for live footage, but that requires installing RealPlayer, and there are some things I just won’t do…
Is this revolution a good or bad thing for Egypt? Depends on who comes out on top. Hosni Mubarak probably isn’t on the list of the ten most brutal and corrupt world leaders, but he probably does make the top twenty. Replacing him with a real Democratic government would be great. Replacing him with the Muslim Brotherhood would be like replace the Shah with Ayatollah Khomeini, only possibly a lot worse.