Another week, another poll that shows Beto O’Rourke within striking distance of Ted Cruz. The entire sample size on the Emerson poll was only 550 registered voters. It seems that O’Rourke’s numbers go up as the size of the sample goes down.
Let’s look at the crosstabs, shall we?
First, this is among registered voters, not likely voters, as other polls have screened. That matters, because off-year elections have lower turnout than Presidential elections.
Second, did they oversample Democrats? Why yes they did, albeit not as grossly as as some previous polls. Republicans checked in at 41%, Democrats at 35%, a six point difference as opposed to the nine point difference in party identification in 2016, much less the 16 points win Cruz enjoyed over Paul Sadler in 2012, or the 20 points Greg Abbott beat Wendy Davis by in 2014.
Third, they’ve oversampled women 52.3% to 47.7% men. The last non-Presidential election poll show closer to a 51% women/49% men split.
I’m guessing that the “closeness” of the race is heavily dependent on those factors.
In other Texas senate race news:
I think Cruz just won early anyway.
https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2018/08/29/standing-ovation-ted-cruzs-comeback-to-beto-orourke-supporting-wannabe-gun-grabber-is-the-stuff-of-2a-legend-video/?utm_campaign=twitchywidget