Coronavirus Update: China’s Economy Burns

Some interesting news on the coronavirus front.

First the official infection figures everyone believes are understated:

Total confirmed cases: 67,097
Total deaths: 1,527
Total recovered: 8,578

Behind the official figures, how badly is coronavirus and the resulting quarantine hurting China’s economy? By some measures, it’s all but ground to a halt:

However, it is the far more important – for China’s GDP – construction steel sector where apparent demand has literally hit the bottom of the chart, down an unprecedented 88% Y/Y or as Goldman puts it, “construction steel demand is approaching zero.”

Snip.

And while we already noted the plunge in coal consumption in power plants as Chinese electricity use has cratered…what is perhaps most striking, is the devastation facing the Chinese real estate sector where property sales across 30 major cities have basically frozen.

Finally, and most ominously perhaps, as the economy craters and internal supply chains fray, prices for everyday staples such as food are soaring as China faces not only economic collapse, but also surging prices for critical goods, such as food.

  • China says that 1,716 health workers have been infected by coronavirus. I can understand a few hundred contracting it at the beginning of the epidemic before much was known about it (and the government was suppressing the news), but such a large number suggest a staggering lack of basic hygiene and quarantine procedures among Chinese medical personal. Which wouldn’t surprise me at all.
  • Indonesia’s government still claims their nation is coronavirus free. People aren’t buying it.
  • Next to China, it appears that one of the most likely places to contract coronavirus is on a cruise ship.
  • CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield says that coronavirus is probably going to be a concern in the U.S. all year.
  • Here’s a Twitter thread that suggests that China is literally burning, with numerous fires breaking out in the quarantine area. Confirmation bias? Maybe. In a country as densely populated as China, I’m sure fires break out on a regular basis, just like here. But it could also suggest a breakdown in basic government services.
  • Japanese man traveling back from Hawaii comes down with the virus. “News of the man’s case comes a day after Hawaii officials announced that the Center for Disease Control (CDC) sent flawed coronavirus testing kits to Hawaii.” Oops!
  • Closer to home, there’s finally been a confirmed case in Texas, but it’s from someone returning from China to and already quarantined at Lackland Air Force. Chances of additional infections from this patient would seem to be very small.
  • In fact, almost 800 U.S. citizens have been have been in quarantine on U.S. military bases after evacuation from China. 195 were just discharged. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
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