You might think that, having suffered billions in losses, hedge funds would want to get out of the GameStop short-selling game.
The astronomical rally in GameStop has imposed huge losses of nearly $20 billion for short sellers this month, but they are not budging.
Short-selling hedge funds have suffered a mark-to-market loss of $19.75 billion year to date in the brick-and-mortar video game retailer, including a nearly $8 billion loss on Friday as the stock kept ripping higher, according to data from S3 Partners.
Still, short sellers mostly are holding onto their bearish positions or they are being replaced by new hedge funds willing to bet against the stock. GameStop shares that have been borrowed and sold short have declined by just about 5 million over the last week, marking an 8% dip in the short interest, according to S3. Most of the short covering occurred on Thursday, when the stock fell for the first time in six days.
“I keep hearing that ‘most of the GME shorts have covered’ — totally untrue,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3 managing director of predictive analytics. “In actuality the data shows that total net shares shorted hasn’t moved all that much.”
“While the ‘value shorts’ that were in GME earlier have been squeezed, most of the borrowed shares that were returned on the back of the buy to covers were shorted by new momentum shorts in the name,” Dusaniwsky added in an email.
Shares of GameStop were back up Friday after Robinhood and other retail brokers allowed trading to resume.
The borrow fee on GameStop’s stock — or the cost-to-borrow shares for the purpose of selling them short — jumped to 29.32% on existing shorts and 50% on new short positions, S3 said.
“If most of the shorts had covered, we would not be seeing stock borrow rates at these high levels — by now you would be able to borrow GME stock at single digit levels due to an increase in the lendable stock loan supply due to borrowed shares being returned after all the ‘supposed’ buy-to-covers,” Dusaniwsky said.
GameStop remained the most-shorted name in the market as short interest as a percentage of shares available for trading stands at 113.31%, S3 said.
(Supposedly Melvin Capital and Citron are out of their GameStop short positions. So who is still in?)
Assuming all the above is true, the remaining hedge funds and their allies are still shorting more than 100% of the stock, despite the theoretically infinite risk involved. I can think of several theories to explain what appears to be apparently irrational behavior:
- Short sellers fully expect their friends in the Biden Administration and/or the financial regulatory apparatus to come to their aid and extricate them from the bind they’ve put themselves into by suspending or changing the rules. Huh. I wonder why they could possibly think that?
Janet Yellen accepted $810,000 in speaking fees from Citadel, owner of Robinhood.
Reporter: Are there any plans to recuse herself from advising the President on GameStop and Robinhood situation?
Psaki: ‘No and she’s an expert and deserves that money.’
— Jessica Grace 🌹 (@IsicaLynn) January 28, 2021
- Short sellers expect to use their power to force trading companies to bend to their will by forcing retail investors to sell their shares (as Robinhood was reportedly doing on Thursday).
- Short sellers expect one or more “whales” (i.e., rich individual investors) to flip and either sell their shares or lend them out to cover shorts once the temptation to take profits is too great.
- Deeper-pocketed short sellers expect the squeeze to force weaker rivals out of the game, either taking huge losses to liquidate their positions or going bankrupt. In either case, they expect this winnowing to drop shorted shares below the 100% threshold, relieving the pressure on the shorts for the remaining short sellers.
Obviously, it could also be a combination of all these. (Or something else; feel free to float other theories in the comments.)
It’s the first two possibilities that should worry us from a policy position: If the big players can break the rules at will to reverse their fortunes when they’ve been beaten at their own game by the little players, then it’s not a free market. And if it’s not a free market, what’s to keep ordinary Americans from getting out of the game entirely?
(Hat tip: Director Blue.)
Tags: Citadel Securities, Citron Research, Economics, GameStop, hedge funds, Ihor Dusaniwsky, Janet Yellen, Melvin Capital, Regulation, Robinhood
Those who run things have demonstrated such contempt for rule of law, fairness, citizenship, and ordinary Americans … it’s time for us to stop playing their game. Leave the marketplace altogether.
Maybe we can’t all do it – I have a 401k myself – but 10% of Americans would be enough to send a strong message. If this is one part of the revolution, it’s a whole lot less violent than other measures.
Decoupling from China is so 2010s. It’s time to decouple from Wall Street, D.C., and Silicon Valley. Hollywood, too, come to think of it.
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