Back in November, I put up a post on Ukrainian forces crossing the Dnipro River for a probing raid. Since then I’ve noticed a persistent trickle of hits to the post, presumably off social media posts of further activity. Today came more concrete evidence that Ukrainian troops are landing and operating on the eastern/southern bank of the Dnipro.
Ukrainian soldiers have crossed the Dnipro River for the first time since the early days of the invasion and built positions that could be used to launch attacks deeper into Russian-occupied territory, analysts have said.
The crossing of the Dnipro River, which has marked the front line since Russian forces retreated from Kherson city in November, comes days after reports of a partial Russian retreat in the area.
It comes as Ukraine is widely expected to launch a counteroffensive, which analysts have said may be aimed at pushing 100 miles south of the Dnipro River at least as far as Crimea.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War said that video and photos have generated the first “reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions” south of the river.
“The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area,” it said.
Several Russian military bloggers used geolocation techniques to pinpoint Ukrainian military positions around the village of Oleshky, south of the Dnipro River.
Russian military blogger “Thirteenth”, who has more than 100,000 followers, posted a video that he said showed Ukrainian special forces using fast small boats to land on the river bank, where “they have been hanging out for a couple of weeks”.
Another, Rybar, which has links to the Russian security services and has more than 1 million subscribers, posted a lengthy blog on the “foothold” the Ukrainian forces have secured.
Suchomimus has the video and geolocation north of Oleshky, near both Dachy and Dachi (enjoy the confusion) near the Antonovsky bridge.
It’s unclear how much special forces or infantry could accomplish on their own without vehicle support, but they would have enough artillery (at least initially), drone and possibly air support for a probing raid to cause panic and confusion among Russian forces, especially as part of a broader spring counter-offensive.
Tags: Antonovsky Bridge, Dachi, Dachy, Dnipro River, Kherson, Military, Oleshky, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Suchomimus, Ukraine, video
From observation, whoever is running Ukrainian operations is a lot more on the ball than the guys running the Russian side of this war.
I am sure that they’re doing the classic piece of what the Germans called Flächen und Lückentaktik, the strategy of surfaces and gaps. At the operational level, this requires extensive reconnaissance and probing, to find what is and is not defended. That is precisely what this is.
The Ukrainians were pretty sophisticated with the way they retook Kherson. I think this coming “thing” is going to demonstrate even more in the way of sophistication and cunning; I’m not looking for masses of newly-trained Ukrainian troops playing Western Front lemmings. What I expect is that they’re going to do even more in the way of logistical dislocation, and force the Russians to withdraw.
There are at least two different ways to conduct yourself while at war. One, you do the set-piece “assault the objective” sort of frontal thing, and then there’s the other: You dislocate the enemy, never attacking his defense directly. This is what the German tactical mastery in WWII consisted of; instead of assaulting a prepared position frontally, the way the Allies would, they’d have their troops out looking for ways to infiltrate around the flanks and get in the rear, then bring the position under fire from advantageous positions. Done right, that means that instead of getting their men killed running head on at things, they’d dislocate the enemy, the enemy would have to withdraw or reposition, and then they would (ideally…) hit them while they do that. The original position is never attacked… Which drastically reduces the casualty count on your side. The Russians never went in for this, because it requires smart, self-motivated men who can adapt to rapidly changing circumstances and take advantage of fleeting opportunities without having to consult with higher. It’s an organic form of war, one that requires a guerrilla mentality in all senses. It’s also a lot more sparing of human material, and why the Germans managed the horrendously better casualty ratios they did.
You have to remember: Germany had no right to be able to do the things they did. They were economically, demographically, and industrially inferior to their opponents. WWII would have been over in 1939, if Allied leadership had been halfway competent during the run-up to the war, and didn’t play footsies with Hitler for momentary advantage. Stalin’s support of Hitler through until ’41 has got to be one of the most amazingly stupid “self-owns” in history; without the resources he poured into Nazi Germany, Hitler would have had a very hard time even holding the Rhine, let alone taking out France and the rest of Western Europe. His dismay at the “betrayal” is just pure “WTF? What did you expect…?”
Ukrainians aren’t going to be doing any “frontal assaults”. I don’t know what they’re going to do, but I think it’ll wind up looking a lot more like the Germans in WWII than the Soviets.
Mark my words, you are going to be disappointed with Zelensky. When this shyt-show begins it’s final phase…whenever the hell that is…you’re going to see the veiled reality of this war. Not the valiant bravery of the Ukrainian soldier. Not the support and assistance of the advisors and agents from numerous nations slogging it out day after day toward victory. You will see the naked and hideous troglodytic basic politics rear its ugly head in smoke-filled rooms resulting in a sub-optimal peace, and Volodomyr will do the signing (before he bugs out to his Italian villa).
The MSM will proclaim a victory. There’ll be parades. And everyone with an IQ higher than room temp will know the falsehood of the spectacle and will keep there mouth shut, embarrassed to speak about what $1 trillion actually gets you in modern warfare.
If Zelensky were the person you’re describing, he’d have cut and run last year in February.
I don’t think he’s a saint, by any means, but I do think that he’s risen to the occasion. Much the way Washington and Lincoln did, who both had really checkered records when it comes to things like maintaining civil liberties in the face of sedition.
If Zelensky establishes a Kim-like dynasty a la North Korea, I’ll happily condemn him for doing that. So far? I really don’t see what other choices he has, unless he steps aside and lets Ukraine become another miserably exploited province of Russia again.
It’s like Reagan said: Trust, but verify. Most of the corruption in Ukraine happened well before Zelensky’s election, and I think he’s just been reacting things as they occur. He may go down as a saint; he may go down as a scoundrel. That history has yet to be written.
50′ (15m) an hour building a pontoon bridge is all well and good, but the Dnipro is somewhere around 700m wide (measured with Google maps) at the narrow area just downstream from the Antonivka bridge. (Wiki lists the bridge itself as around 1300m.) That’s almost 2 full days to put a pontoon bridge across in that area.
Looking at Google maps satellite imagery, it looks like a lot of the area immediately up and down stream of Kherson has significant wetlands, subsidiary channels, etc on one or both sides of the river. Not good terrain for anything armored.
Give Zelenskyy some credit for at least good optics. He’s keeping a Churchillian face for the public if nothing else. The stories about his corruption will not die, which brings up a thought: there’s something about communism that brought out the worst in humanity, and whatever it is will take a generation to remove it. It’s going to take that long to teach morals and ethics to a people who never learned any.
Y’know… All I ever hear about Zelensky? There’s very little “meat” to the accusations and all the rest of it. You go looking for actual evidence of corruption, and what it boils down to is that nobody that’s pro-Russian likes what he’s doing, and the rest of it is innuendo and guilt by association.
He didn’t work for Burisma. He didn’t take a monthly paycheck for ensuring access to the vice president of the United States. I could list all the things he hasn’t done, and the rest of the things people say about him are very, very hard to pin down. He might be the biggest crook since forever, but the Ukrainians I know and have talked to (bunch of locals married Ukrainian girls, including family friends…) all say that whatever “corruption” Zelensky gets up to in Ukraine is very small potatoes.
If he was actually corrupt, the guy would have left Ukraine on the first thing smoking, and let the Russians have their way with the place. That didn’t happen, so… I surmise that there’s a lot of character assassination going on. I’ve yet to have someone present me with actual, y’know… Evidence of his corruption. All they have is stuff like “He’s cracked down on the Russian Orthodox Church…” when the plain fact is, that church and its prelates have been FSB stooges since forever.
I think the final verdict on Zelensky has yet to be written, and the guy may well be what his hagiographers present him as. Or, at least as virtuous as any of the Founding Fathers here in the US were… Ever had a look at George Washington’s expense accounts?
I can forgive a lot of things for a man who refused to countenance his officers rebelling against the cheap-ass Continental Congress and actually turned down a kingship here in North America, in favor of the Republic we eventually founded. Zelensky may be a similar sort of person; remains to be seen. Give it time.
Meanwhile, I cannot support what the Russians are doing, regardless of the pecadilloes and peculations of the people running Ukraine for the last twenty or so years. I don’t think that the Obama administration should have been doing what they were in Ukraine, but I also don’t think we did enough after the Budapest Accords to set conditions in Eastern Europe to prevent another century of Russian-run horror. Once that asshole Clinton signed on the dotted line, we were obligated… And, just like we did in Afghanistan after the Soviets pulled out, we took a vacation and let things fester. Precisely as we are doing today…
Do you know what the best evidence is that the Ukrainian Army is not corrupt? That the war is still continuing after 14 months. If they were as corrupt as the press makes out the war would have ended in March 2022.
They do not fight like a corrupt army. A corrupt army fights like the Russian Army. Their soldiers are unmotivated and they have to be driven. You look at what it took for the Ukrainians to chase Russia out of the northern half of their country and it is a tale of motivation.
If Zelensky were as corrupt as people make out he would have accepted the offer of a ride out of Kyiv in February 2022. There was no percentage in staying if your only goal is money. Is he a PITA? Yep. And despite his post-WWII deification, so was Winston Churchill. The two men are more alike than different in both strengths and weaknesses.
The real reason for all the recent talk of Ukrainian corruption is the West has become bored with Ukraine. The movie is going on longer than desired, and many folks want to move on to the next thing. So the press is trying to handwave away Ukrainian accomplishments. The war needs to be over before we can move on.
I suspected when the Russians invaded they had an agreement with Biden, who was then forced to back Ukraine because of the public reaction. I think he is looking for an excuse to back away from that, and that is why you now see so much negative coverage of Ukraine.
The few comments here have been HIGHLY TLDR, which makes it a place I cannot trust.
The fact is that Russian casualties far outweigh those of Ukraine. Just look at the photos of T-54/55’s on railcars destined for Ukraine. The one thing the Ukrainians have to worry about is running out of ATGW’s and rounds for their tanks, which are now seriously up-armored.
If Rheinmetall wants to demonstrate their latest drone they should let the Ukrainians have a couple dozen and then use the German drones to drop off those deadly Ukrainian tank killing drones.
The Ukrainian troops are battle hardened and fighting for their homes with their backs against the wall.
This isn’t about Zelensky, but Zelensky is the man they needed and still need. Logistics wins wars and he has been doing his best to get that logistic train in place. We are seeing our aid paying off every day in real time.
The fact is, the more dead Russians the less they will menace the rest of the world. China should take note. Determined defenders make any war of aggression very, very expansive.
“The few comments here have been HIGHLY TLDR, which makes it a place I cannot trust.”
I’ve never seen a better summation of intellectual laziness as a defense for ignorance.
The merits and virtues of Ukraine and Zelensky can be debated especially from the luxury of the balcony seats here in the US. My view is based on two things: Putin pulled the trigger. I don’t care who put the gun in his hand or how scared he was about the west getting too close. He didn’t have to do it and he didn’t have to be a pig — he could have tried to make joining Russia an attractive option. The second thing is the reaction of those closest to the situation, and with something real to lose. If this were just a security matter for Russia, Finland would not have joined NATO, Poland would not be well on its way to becoming the most heavily armed advanced military in Europe, and the Baltic states would not be all in supporting Ukraine. All these people understand that Russia’s security interests will never be satisfied, and they’re next. So yeah, the Ukrainians may be crooks but I still want them to win.
TLDR? Yo! Paulie — it’s the internet!
Paul apparently wants things in a sound bite, with no thinking required. Perfect person for the modern Democrat/Republican Oligarchy–Someone else can do his thinking for him, ‘cos he can’t be bothered.
Any wonder why the Republic fell?
The Russians can’t afford too many troops along that stretch of land. They are desperate for any and all combat strength. Which means that these areas are probably manned by a skeleton crew of troops ordered to keep an eye on the opposing shore for signs of bridges or repair crews.
The Russians probably don’t expect a crossing by a boat to be significant enough that they can’t rush troops down there to stop them. And conventionally, they would be right. The amount of boats you need to support troops, heavy boats for mechanized transport, infantry boats, etc, would be noticeable. But in the video you see two boats with only infantry. Recon teams, sabotage teams.
Find the Russian patrols. Find their supply depots and command structures. Perhaps trip the wire a few times. ambush some patrols, steal back across the river at night in two small quiet boats. Make the Russians waste gas sending troops they can’t spare to a spot where no Ukrainians are. Make them hold barrages elsewhere to save artillery shells for an attack that isn’t coming.
How many times till the Russians get used to it? Till they don’t respond? How many times does the Ukranian team hang around, get resupplied, and ambush a couple more patrols, larger patrols, local command bunkers? What if the Russian recon is afraid to send out patrols? What if they rely more and more on drones? or just a guy on the roof with binoculars?
more gaps, more places to slip more troops further in. That highway up to the bridge is the only route for vehicles to respond to any landing on the shore for miles upstream and down. Push the russian recon forces past that point and they are stuck with drone recon over a hostile area to try and target a pontoon bridge. Heck, If I were the Ukranians I would have a fake bridge just upstream of the bridge, and I’d let the Russians see it. They’d blow it up, then I’d put in another 3-4 sections. Make them feel good that they keep pounding an inflatable fake.
If you can tie down a larger force of Russian troops and material then you are successful, even if you don’t fight directly. If they try to use artillery to chase you out just leave and come back after the shelling stops. Make them bus troops constantly in and out. Their troops are poorly trained, poorly motivated, they will make mistakes.
To be fair, Russia have been doing probing recon with Wagner convict troops ala Enemy at the Gate style, though that source of recruitment have been cut off. Last week they claimed, again to have taken center of Bakhmut, but nothing so far this week.
With regards to the other nations, they can read the map, they knew Vlad’s reason for this war is to close off the Moldova route of invasion to Moscow. If Putin got what he wanted with Ukraine, the next hole for him to plug up is Poland and Baltic states.
Much of Russia’s national psychosis is rooted in their own behavior and understanding of the world. The idea that they could live in peace within their own borders is apparently beyond them… To the Russian mindset, they’re ever-threatened by their neighbors, because their conception of the world is such that they can’t begin to understand the idea that a nation like Ukraine isn’t interested in anything inside Russia’s borders. The idea that the Russian state needs to occupy and control Ukraine for its security is a perfect example of self-fulfilling prophecy.
Absent the 24 February 2022 invasion, Ukraine would have likely bumbled along towards its own future, never entering NATO. Same with Finland and Sweden; NATO was basically dying, a dead issue. Poland might have done its best to maintain NATO as a surety, but… I doubt that they’d have kept carrying the rest of Europe’s defense water.
So, what did the invasion of Ukraine accomplish? Finland is in NATO; Sweden ain’t likely very far behind. Poland is rearming like a mofo’, Ukraine is going to get an invite into NATO, and the entire alliance is now reinvigorated and likely to keep on going for at least another few generations…
None of the Russian’s stated war aims have been accomplished, and they’ve even drastically worsened their position.
What was the point, again, Vlad?
Russia is likely to end up as a recap of the Grand Duchy of Muscovy, only with less relevance. And, despite all the whinging, they did it to themselves.