Suchomimus has a video up on the U.S. strike on Fordow:
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says that initial battle damage assessment showed “all of our precision munitions struck where we wanted them to strike and had the desired effect, which means, especially in Fordow, which was the primary target here, we believe we achieved destruction of capabilities there.”
More:
B-2 Spirit bombers dropped a total of 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, or MOPs, on two of the Iranian nuclear facility sites struck this weekend as part of “Operation Midnight Hammer,” Air Force Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Sunday.
President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the U.S. military had attacked three facilities involved with Iran’s nuclear program at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.
The mission marked the first operational use of the 30,000-pound MOP, the largest B-2 bomber strike in history, and the second-longest B-2 mission ever flown, Caine said during a Pentagon news conference. In order to deceive the Iranians, a number of B-2s flew west as decoys prior to the strike, he said.
Snip.
Defense officials showed reporters a graphic during Sunday’s news conference that indicated that seven B-2 bombers took part in the strikes.
A total of 125 aircraft were involved in the mission, including fighters and aerial refuelers, Caine said. The bombers and fighters dropped about 75 precision-guided munitions on two of the sites, and a Navy submarine fired Tomahawk missiles at a third.
Possibly more later.
Update: A more detailed Suchomimus damage assessment video:
I had heard chatter about using a ventilation shaft to hit the facility, because surely the Iranians wouldn’t be so stupid as to to use a vertical shaft that leads directly to the bunker complex rather than a horizontal one. But that seems to be the case.
Plus damage details for the Natanz and Isfahan sites. At least some of the 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators seem to have targeted Natanz, with the Tomahawks hitting Isfahan.
Also, U.S. graphics suggest the B-2s were actually flown from Whitman Airbase in Missouri, rather than Diego Garcia, as previously reported. Maybe that too was deception.
Update 2 via Ed Dirscoll at Instapundit: Israel seems to think that the 60% enriched Uranium was at Natanz and Isfahan, which was hit in the strike, and now they have no way to get it to 90%.
I'm gonna say something a bit different from what that source told the New York Times. He said Fordo was damaged Severely but wasn't destroyed. So I'll tell you what Israel's current assessment is.
First off all Natanz was completely wiped out. For Fordo and Isfahan, we're… pic.twitter.com/KQ9OTlh7Oo
— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) June 22, 2025
Update 3 via Charlie Martin at Instapundit: Ex-spy Aimen Dean doesn’t buy the “they dismantled everything” narrative:
1. Real-Time Monitoring by the IAEA:
Both Fordow and Natanz are under partial surveillance by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While Iran has restricted access in recent years, many of the monitoring systems – especially CCTV cameras – were active in the past and still provided some insight until at least early 2023. In several cases, the IAEA retained knowledge of infrastructure layouts and could remotely detect large-scale activity, especially if dismantling or evacuation were attempted.2. The Myth of Rapid Evacuation:
This isn’t a warehouse full of sacks of potatoes. We’re talking about highly specialized, sensitive equipment, thousands of IR-1 and advanced IR-2m and IR-6 centrifuges. For context:
•Natanz had an estimated 15,000–20,000 centrifuges at peak capacity. Even after the JCPOA, thousands remained in use or storage.
•Fordow, while smaller, housed over 1,000 advanced centrifuges, some enriching uranium up to 60% purity in recent years.These are not items that can be boxed up and trucked out overnight. Dismantling a single cascade (a chain of 164 centrifuges) safely requires days of work, if not longer. Multiply that by hundreds of cascades, and you quickly realize this isn’t a quick getaway.
Additionally, centrifuges are connected to high-pressure uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) lines. Improper disassembly can lead to contamination, equipment damage, or worse, leaks of radioactive gas. Such evacuations would require weeks of preparation under controlled conditions.
3. Eyes in the Sky and on the Ground:
Let’s not forget that the U.S. and Israel have had persistent, layered surveillance over these sites for years, satellites, high-altitude drones, SIGINT, HUMINT. Every inch of ground around Fordow and Natanz has been watched for telltale signs of activity. The idea that Iran stealthily evacuated multiple facilities without being detected is simply ludicrous.4. Propaganda to Salvage Prestige:
This entire narrative is damage control, plain and simple. The regime knows its core scientific and strategic assets were hit. They can’t admit it, so they spin: “We were too smart for them. Nothing of value was lost.” But it’s hollow bravado, masking what is in reality a colossal strategic failure – yet another one – in a long line of catastrophic blunders by a leadership that has brought nothing but ruin to a once-proud civilization.
Tags: Aimen Dean, Air Force, B-2, Dan “Razin” Caine, Department of Defense, Fordow, Foreign Policy, Iran, Isfahan, Jihad, Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP), Military, Natanz, nuclear weapons, Operation Midnight Hammer, Pete Hegseth, Suchomimus, Tomahawk Missile, uranium, video
Suchomimus is a fool. The Iranians had cargo trucks on site at Fordow on 19 June, before the dirt hauling trucks and the construction equipment. From Newsweek:
‘Satellite Images Show ‘Unusual’ Activity at Iran Nuclear Site Before Strikes’
By Ellie Cook, Posted today.
The centrifuges are easily removed by HAZMAT protected personnel. They would by unbolted from their bases and disconnected from their utilities and plumbing. Photos of the installation of Iranian centrifuges show them being removed from fork liftable racks by two persons and spotted on their bases. The racks appear to hold 48 centrifuges each. The reverse procedure should be even easier, since no leveling or other millwright activities are necessary.
Less than 100 racks would be necessary for the 3,000 centrifuges reputed to be at Fordow. A crew of 50 with air tools could get the removal job done overnight, without being fussy about the easily replaced accessories. That’s about six racks per truck, if Newsweek is correct when they said (and showed):
“A total of 16 cargo trucks were spotted on the access road leading up to the Fordow tunnel entrance on Thursday,”
The Iranians supposedly have 408 kg (900 pounds for the mathematically challenged) of HEU, according to IAEA. This is less than a typical LTL.
We need an after action report from the Israelis. And we need to destroy TRR. Polonium-210 only has a 6 month half life, so we can feel much safer 6 months after TRR is gone.
“I can’t see everything important being evacuated in a couple of days. There’s bound to have been some equipment, some important equipment, left in here.”
Whether the centrifuges were disconnected and relocated or have been buried under a pile of rubble, Fordow is now inoperable. This makes it difficult for the threats of theocratic warlords to be taken seriously. If you are familiar with how Yukon Cornelius defanged The ‘Bumble, The Ayatolla is now toothless–an object of pity and scorn meant only to be trotted out for Yultide celebrations and Hanukkah festivities.
“The centrifuges are easily removed by HAZMAT protected personnel.”
So why did you pose your earlier question about the feasibility of evacuating Fordow?
The Iranians did not get their equipment out in a timely manner. This narrative is being floated by the Russians to help their proxy save face. Iran’s Russian-sponsored nuclear program been unceremoniously interrupted by an.American air strike having great potency and precision.
You want us to believe that Israeli intelligence was spoofed by the crafty Iranians who left empty nuclear enrichment facilities for the Americans to bomb in vain.
Even Lord Haw-Haw would not have peddled such a load of crap.
“Suchomimus is a fool.”
But this suggests our dear host is equally foolish for linking to his videos.
Our political class is full of traitors, liars, and fools. Suchomimus is none of these. He is a canny analyst. Those who question his competence or integrity must give proof of their own credentials.
Self-bloviating mathematical posers are automatically ineligible.
“Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage.”
–Dmitry Medvedev
When you hear Russian shills echo Russian propagandists word-for-word, it should indicate where they get their steaming pile of manure to spread. Compare 10×25 with Russian propandists. Is there any substantive difference between them?
“So why did you pose your earlier question about the feasibility of evacuating Fordow?”
Never posed a question about the feasibility of evacuating Fordow. What goes down can come right back up, assuming the elevators work. The elevators at Fordow were probably the critical path if the Iranians actually succeeded in removing their centrifuges.
“The Iranians did not get their equipment out in a timely manner. This narrative is being floated by the Russians to help their proxy save face. Iran’s Russian-sponsored nuclear program been unceremoniously interrupted by an.American air strike having great potency and precision.”
You don’t know this, and neither does anyone else outside of Iran. The Israelis have some kind of unconfirmed intelligence on the whereabouts of the 408 kg of Iranian HEU, but they are not talking, beyond a passing Netanyahu comment today.
Iranian centrifuges appear to have four bolt bases, an infeed tube, two discharge tubes, and a 400V, 50Hz three phase electrical wiring box. You need an air wrench, open end wrenches, and a large wire cutter to free them.
The Iranian centrifuges are light enough that installation photographs show two average sized men removing them from the fork liftable racks and spotting them for bolt down.
The Iranians could have gotten them out on the 16 cargo trucks in the Maxar 19 June image which that fool Suchomimus ignored.
UF6 centrifuges are made from ultra high strength materials and their only major jeopardy is due to mechanical resonance excursions during spool up and spool down.
These centrifuges have been depowered (and spooled down) since the Israelis took out Fordow’s power grid on 15 June, if not before. Any damage due to their last spool down is long since a fait accompli. Further handling of these centrifuges, mostly fabricated from MarM 300, is unlikely to create any further damage.
Each one will probably require FTR rehabilitation, but this is far less demanding than fully manufacturing replacements. Assuming the Iranians got them out.
No publicly available evidence exists on the underground Natanz centrifuges.
Mark me as highly skeptical.
All militaries are highly optimistic in the damage they cause. The Germans thought bombing could destroy Britain, and the British at the start of the WW2 had a study that said its bombing had destroyed Germany’s ability to make war. The Army Air Force and Curtis Lemay though we could destroy Japan’s work making ability. We couldn’t and had to show that we would kill most Japanese with atomic bombs before they surrendered. We dropped tons of bombs on the tunnels of Chu Chi and they survived, and today are a tourist attraction.
My guess is that bombing has delayed, but not destroyed, Iran’s ability to make a bomb. What has happened is that the destruction of Iran’s air defenses has destroyed its ability to defend itself from air strikes. If Isreal has the nerve, it could bomb the nuclear sites weekly and prevent them from being repaired.
“All militaries are highly optimistic in the damage they cause.”
True. But I think this is a bit different because Israel’s intelligence is about as good as it gets. And they have air dominance.
” Israel’s intelligence is about as good as it gets. ”
A wise diplomat would say – Only a fool believes any of what the Israelis say about Iran. Only the crowned King of fools would go to war over it.
Sigh.
This mission was a success – to Israel. It got the US to bomb Iran. That was THE goal. Curveball II. Bibi and deep state played Trump like a penny whistle.
“Bibi and deep state played Trump like a penny whistle.”
They all play on the penny whistles, you can hear them blow
If you lean your head out far enough from Desolation Row
Who is mourning this air strike? The Ayatollah weeps upion the Russian breast while the neoisolationists glumly conclude that Donald Trump is not their cat’s paw and have reached the ineluctable conclusion that he belongs to the World-Wide Jewish Conspiracy. America’s political Left joins hands with the aforementioned.
The resultant schadenfreude is nearly as enjoyable as the air strike that produced it.
“My guess is that bombing has delayed, but not destroyed, Iran’s ability to make a bomb.”
It has produced a result much better than the mere destruction of Iran’s offensive capabilities; it has exposed the brittle nature of the theocratic Warlord’s regime. Ali Hosseini Khamenei has to explain to his subjects how The Great Satan has managed to triumph over the mighty warriors of Islam.
And how can the faithful endure the disgrace of being bested by their eternal enemy–the Jew? If Khamenei is the Mahdi’s forerunner, he must bring about the annihilation of Jewery before Allah’s vice-regent can emerge from his hole to bring about the world-wide triumph of Islam.
But those crafty Jews have repeatedly struck Iran with impunity. How can this reversal of fortune be explained if Khamenei’s vision is the real and authentic destiny of Islam? Who will sacrifice their sons for this man if he is an imposter?
The psychological damage from America’s air strike is disproportional to the physical damage it has caused, which is by no means insignificant.
10X25 “HAZMAT protected personnel” are not needed. The Iranian government does not care if the techs do not survive beyond the move.
TexasYankee – Absolutely correct militaries always over estimate damage assesments. However, Curtis Lemay was destroying Japanese war making ability by completely incinerating entire cities and exterminating all the people and every living thing that lived there. Lemay learned from the European theater failures; Lemay’s bombing was completely vaporizing Japanese cities before the nukes were deployed. With or without nukes, Lemay was erasing cities.
What ever was pulled out of the Iranian nuke sites is now in transition. If they set it up, that will take power, time and personnel. All of these are in short supply for Iran for the forseable future. The Israelis will likely know where the stuff is going with their existing contacts. As the Iranian economy and government collapse, people will be more amenable to receiving bribes too.
Explosives have best used by dates. The US military is likely sitting on quite a few MOPs that they need to use or lose and so likely will use some more in Iran. And maybe test some improved versions.
As long as Iran, the Russians, the Press and others say Iran is still in, the US will stay in too. Trump has set end conditions as unconditional surrender. This war is going to take time.
Polymarket says 32% chance that the Fordow attack actually succeeded:
https://polymarket.com/event/fordow-nuclear-facility-destroyed-before-july?tid=1750690538705
What do they know that Random Guy On Youtube doesn’t?
I have no idea how much is damaged, but I have a few thoughts:
The markings next to the impact points are man-made in the ground. I can’t tell from the imagery of the installation of the ventilation and these images what is or isn’t the ventilation shaft. I would guess that the markings though are more likely the vent and the impact points are off-centered. However, why would one use a penetrator on the exhaust vent itself, when (since you can penetrate) the weaker location is the shaft. If the entrances (sealed by Iran) and vents (now sealed by the US) are out, then the facility is not operational, so that must be a set back.
As for moving items in advance; I’ve seen that analysis elsewhere. I don’t believe for a second that anybody did an overnight job of removing a train of centrifuges. If they tried; then that operation was probably more destructive than anything the US or Israel did. I would think removing material would be more likely than equipment, and if so, that can be tracked.
This is funny: “easily removed by HAZMAT protected personnel” Obviously written by somebody that has never been in a HAZMAT suit, much less in the middle of an Iranian summer and in underground facility designed for maximum security. This is like imagining a Repo man wearing three layers of clothes and trying to take possession of a Stryker inside the grounds of Fort Knox. Sure, it could be done, if you pretend the Repo man is competent, has all the necessary equipment, in great health, good weather, nobody is protecting the Stryker, all passive security measures somehow were no longer relevant, and in this case during a time of war.
“This is like imagining a Repo man wearing three layers of clothes and trying to take possession of a Stryker inside the grounds of Fort Knox.”
10×25 has many such “just so” stories that neatly dispense with the constraints of physics,
The imagination can embrace innumerable illusions. Think of 10×25 as a two-bit conjuror captivating his audience with smoke and mirrors.
“Polymarket says 32% chance that the Fordow attack actually succeeded”
The gypsy fortune teller sez Iran has a hitherto undisclosed weapon that will make Jews through themselves into the sea but she neglected to relate that she owns a side hustle as co-owner of an Iranian travel agency that was booking tours of Tel Aviv.
“Polymarket says 32% chance that the Fordow attack actually succeeded”
The gypsy fortune teller sez Iran has a hitherto undisclosed weapon that will make Jews THROW themselves into the sea but she neglected to relate that she owns a side hustle as co-owner of an Iranian travel agency that was booking tours of Tel Aviv.
“This is like imagining a Repo man wearing three layers of clothes and trying to take possession of a Stryker inside the grounds of Fort Knox.”
10×25 has many such “just so” stories that neatly dispense with the constraints of physics,
The imagination can embrace innumerable illusions. Think of 10×25 as a two-bit conjuror captivating his audience with smoke and mirrors.”
Temperatures 100 meters underground, under rock strata, are usually 10°C or more below surface temperatures. Workers probably wear thermal garments, even during the hottest months of summer. Proximity to the water table plays an important role, which is why we have geothermal cooling systems. Go down in a mine sometime.
“As for moving items in advance; I’ve seen that analysis elsewhere. I don’t believe for a second that anybody did an overnight job of removing a train of centrifuges. If they tried; then that operation was probably more destructive than anything the US or Israel did. I would think removing material would be more likely than equipment, and if so, that can be tracked.”
As I noted: UF6 centrifuges are made from ultra high strength materials and their only major jeopardy is due to mechanical resonance excursions during spool up and spool down.
These centrifuges have been depowered (and spooled down) since the Israelis took out Fordow’s power grid on 15 June, if not before. Any damage due to their last spool down is long since a fait accompli. Further handling of these centrifuges, mostly fabricated from MarM 300, is unlikely to create any further damage.
Look up the strengths and fracture toughness of MarM 300 (AMS 6514) if you have any doubts. It is the same metal alloy used for naval aircraft tail hooks, the highest strength/toughness application in all of military production. You cannot manually damage MarM 300 components.
“A wise diplomat would say – Only a fool believes any of what the Israelis say about Iran. Only the crowned King of fools would go to war over it.
Sigh.”
The topic was the effectiveness of the bombing. Given Israel’s ability to pick off members of the military and the regime I would say it’s a reasonable assumption that Israeli intelligence has been extremely successful at infiltrating Iran.
Sigh.
Apparently the wisest of men are those like Gaffer who believe the Iranians but distrust the Israelis. What the Iranians say is true; what the Israelis say is false. Manicheanism in politics demonstrates erudition and philosophical sophistication.
But this suggests that if even one Iranian can be found who is false or one Israeli who is true, the construct falls to the ground like the idol Dagon.
In the nitty-gritty realm of political power, Donald Trump believed at least one Israeli was to be trusted and acted on that belief. Believe or disbelieve as your inclinations lead you but don’t disbelieve the Israeli reports that Iran’s nuclear assets were thunderously struck.
To believe otherwise is to demonstrate yourself to be King of the Fools.
“The Iranian centrifuges are light enough that installation photographs show two average sized men removing them from the fork liftable racks and spotting them for bolt down.”
A fallacy of composition is the flawed reasoning that concludes what is true for individual parts must also be true for the entire group or system they belong to.
To whit, disassembly and removal of a cascading array is an altogether different process from bolting down a centrifuge. You cannot simultaneously be aware of the distinction while promoting an “easy egress” narrative unless you are in the throes of intellectual schizophrenia.
“A fallacy of composition is the flawed reasoning that concludes what is true for individual parts must also be true for the entire group or system they belong to.
To whit, disassembly and removal of a cascading array is an altogether different process from bolting down a centrifuge. You cannot simultaneously be aware of the distinction while promoting an “easy egress” narrative unless you are in the throes of intellectual schizophrenia.”
You are tying yourself up in knots trying to appear smarter than you actually are. The salvage logic here is actually quite simple.
There are only two categories of equipment in facilities like Fordow and Natanz: ‘Dedicated Nuclear’ and ‘Dual-Use’.
Iran will be proctologized forevermore on Dedicated Nuclear items. Absolutely no one will risk selling them ultra strength/ultra toughness alloys like MarM 300 or centrifuge bearings. Iran will have no problem acquiring all the Dual-Use items items in the future, such as Inconel 600 plumbing, vibration absorbing machine bases, electrical wiring & controls, and all the other non centrifuge items.
So if you are a crafty Iranian and want to reestablish your nuclear program sub rosa, ASAP, you are going to salvage every Dedicated Nuclear item you can and let the American bombs destroy the Dual-Use items. This means cutting out the centrifuges in the fastest possible fashion, without regard for systems preservation.
Iran is rolling in money and replacing plumbing and wiring is a minor expense to them. Competent millwrights don’t reuse plumbing and wiring, in any event. They like brand new stuff.
The Iranians have a huge incentive to get the centrifuges out of Fordow and hide them. They are (and contain) the Dedicated Nuclear items which would take forever to smuggle. They can be FTRed and back in operation in no time flat,