Lawrence Person's BattleSwarm Blog

I don’t know how much faith to put in the following information (“China is a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a memecoin” said some famous wag (all quotes approximate)), but several people who read the tea leaves of the Chinese Communist Party say that President Xi Jinping has quietly been relieved of power.

The Economic Times of India:

Between late May and early June, Chinese President Xi Jinping simply disappeared. No parades. No spotlights. No front pages in People’s Daily that once displayed him daily. Instead, other senior Communist Party leaders hosted visiting dignitaries in Beijing’s grand halls.

According to CNN-News18, top intelligence officials say, “Xi Jinping’s absence is not unusual, and China has a history of sidelining prominent leaders.” The method is familiar — big names stay on paper, power moves quietly elsewhere.

When Xi reappeared in early June, it was not the spectacle the world expected. He sat down with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, but the setting was unusually small. Gone was the red-carpet flourish. “Xi appeared tired, distracted, and generally unwell at a meeting with the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in early June,” noted the Belarusian presidential press service.

Even stranger, Xi’s personal security detail has been halved. His father’s grand mausoleum has lost its official status.

When they dishonor your ancestors, that’s a big sign things aren’t hunky dory.

And after a recent call with Donald Trump, Chinese state TV did something unheard of — it referred to Xi without any title. Later they patched it up, but the slip revealed cracks.

While Xi’s health and image fade, power appears to shift. General Zhang Youxia, who helped Xi secure an historic third term, is now rumoured to be calling the shots in the People’s Liberation Army. But he fell out with Xi soon after.

One source said: “Currently, real power lies with General Zhang Youxia, the First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), who is backed by CCP seniors from the Hu Jintao faction.”

Dozens of generals loyal to Xi have vanished or been replaced. Rumours swirl about secret purges. “The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has previously done this with three notable leaders, reducing their operational authority to mere ceremonial roles,” top intelligence officials told CNN-News18.

Whispers of a new face have also emerged. Wang Yang, who once served as a respected technocrat, is now spoken of as Xi’s likely replacement. Reports claim, “Wang Yang, recently appointed to lead the Chinese Communist Party, has been spoken of as a successor to Xi Jinping.”

Once lifted by Deng Xiaoping from obscurity, Wang represents reform. He is seen as calm, pro-market and less confrontational. Intelligence insiders told CNN-News18, “Wang Yang is being groomed as a reform-oriented future leader and technocrat.”

Back in 2022, the world watched as Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao was guided off the stage at the Party Congress in full view of cameras. China’s Xinhua agency said Mr Hu felt unwell. But Hu looked reluctant. BBC’s Stephen McDonell noted, “Mr Hu, 79, appeared reluctant to move.” He even reached for Xi’s notes before the sitting President brushed him off.

You know that had to sting. But evidently Hu still had a lot of pull behind the scenes.

What many saw then as a power play now takes on new meaning. The silent exit of Hu — once a symbol of collective leadership — marked Xi’s total grip. Or so it seemed.

China’s economic engine is spluttering. Youth unemployment is stuck at 15 per cent. Real estate sits stagnant. Semiconductor plans have collapsed. National debt has ballooned to over $50 trillion. Local protests and factory unrest are flaring up.

Gregory W. Slayton, a former US diplomat, summed it up: “With over $50 trillion in total debt… and an unemployment rate in depression territory… it is not surprising that local riots, factory arsons and anti-government protests have flared all over China.”

Lei’s Real Talk (see here for a brief discussion of that channel) also sees signed that Xi has lost an internal power struggle:

“CCP politics is getting wild. Today we’ll discuss Xi Jinping’s new boss and his rival Zhang Youxia’s relentless purge in the military. And the two are related. Okay, let’s get started. So for months rumors and whispers have swirled that Xi Jinping has lost control of the party to Zhang Youxia and the party elders.”

“Xi Jinping supposedly has lost control uh to Zhang Youxia and the party elders. But this isn’t a simple case of one faction overpowering another. Even within the ranks of the party elders, there are competing priorities for what China’s next phase should look like. Some want to save the regime from collapse. Others want to push for political reforms. Some focus on reviving the economy. And there are those who want absolute control just to survive this life and death struggle.”

“Youxia has supposedly gambled everything to take down Xi Jinping.”

“For a few weeks, the political center in Beijing appeared deadlocked. Xi Jinping disappeared, and then resisted change. Zhang Youxia, backed by military force, demanded it, and the party elders were caught in the middle trying to maintain a fragile balance.”

“Then, in the last week or so, Xi Jinping suddenly re-emerged in public with greater visibility. He scored a minor win when Beijing announced that she would appear at the September 3rd World War II Victory Day parade. Whether he will inspect the troops or simply give a speech remains unclear.”

“Meanwhile, Zhang Youxia has been steadily expanding his grip. Miao Hua, one of Xi Jinping’s most trusted generals, was officially removed. Zhang has started moving into the Navy and the Air Force to root out Xi’s remaining loyalists.”

“All the signs and rumors pointing to Xi Jinping’s loss of power reached a new phrase yesterday when Xi Jinping himself made an announcement on behalf of the party. In effect, he confirmed his own decline.”

After not announcing Politburo meeting minutes in May, the CCP made a single terse announcement at the end of June, saying the meeting was to review “regulations on the work of the Central Party Decision Making and Consolidation Body.”

“This body basically assumes the very role that Xi Jinping once held in making decisions. Meaning Xi is no longer the highest authority in the CCP. He now has a boss, and that boss is this new decision-making body.”

“This new body isn’t just for advice. It controls the full chain of power from policy formation to execution. In fact, in effect, it is now the de facto highest governing body of the CCP.”

This body “has already been operating in secret for some time.”

“His opponents are forcing [Xi] to be the one who announces it, in order to make the power transition appear orderly, legitimate, and as if it were orchestrated by Xi Jinping himself.

There’s much more in the video, including a several People’s Liberation Army generals thought to be close to Xi who have been suddenly relieved of command, including members of Xi’s “Fujian Clique” and members of his beloved Rocket Force, “Since Miao’s downfall last fall, a wave of senior officers have been arrested or investigated. And these individuals share two things in common. One, they all belong to Xi’s loyalist faction. And two, they mostly come from the air force, the navy, or the rocket force. Almost none from the uh the army or the ground forces. Why? Well, because Xi Jinping’s plan to invade Taiwan relied primarily on those three branches. Meanwhile, the ground force which long has been Zhang Youxia’s base or domain, was largely sidelined under Xi Jinping. But now, after a sweeping purge of the air force, the navy and the rocket force, it has become painfully clear who has been purging these generals, and who truly holds military power in China, and it is not Xi Jinping.”

Is Xi Jinping actually out of power? I’m not one capable of reading these tea leaves directly, but the one who can seem to think so. Indeed, rumors of a purge of Xi loyalists in the military date back to March.

Does this mean an invasion of Taiwan is off the table in the near term? Very possibly. In addition to leadership purges of the very forces tasked with carrying out such an invasion, Zhang Youxia evidently told Xi Jinping that his 2027 invasion deadline wasn’t practical. Then again, since Zhang was previously head of the PLA’s General Armaments Department, maybe he just wants to wait until China has better weapons.

Does it mean a less confrontational stance by China to the United States and the west in general? Again, very possibly. Hu Jintao was notably less confrontational than Xi, and possible presidential successor Wang Yang (as well as possible CCP premier pick Hu Chunhua) are considered Hu Jintao proteges.

Also, President Trump may the CCP shakeup as an opportunity to negotiate an even-more-favorable trade deal, and maybe clear up other points of friction (such as the South China Sea).

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out…

Tags: China, Communism, Foreign Policy, Gregory W. Slayton, Hu Chunhua, Hu Jintao, Lei’s Real Talk, Miao Hua, Military, People's Liberation Army, Taiwan, video, Wang Yang, Xi Jinping, Zhang Youxia

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 2nd, 2025 at 4:57 PM and is filed under Communism, Foreign Policy, Military, video. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.