Two VW vans, both 2019 models, tell radically different stories when it comes to depreciation.
Based on recent auction prices and AutoTrader listings, a 2019 VW 2.0L TDI Diesel Highline van lost £4,000 in depreciation.
The 2021 VW ABT Etransporter T32 ADVA electric van lost £47,000.
The hard details (including auction results) are real, though the stories of how each were used seems invented for amusement value.
The EV van has only 8,064 miles, the diesel has 23,699.
“The price when new for my diesel van in 2021 was £32,997 and [the] EV was £55,717.”
Both vans look kitted out for cargo rather than passengers.
“After 28,000 miles, my diesel van, as you can see from here, AutoTrader, there’s loads of them online, so you can go look for yourself. 23,000 mi on this one, 24 grand plus the VAT. So, my van at the end of four years is worth £28,788.”
“His 8,000 mile van that he spent £20,000 more than me on, is today worth £8,100.”
“So my depreciation, I’ve lost £4,209 across four years, which is £1,000 a year…I’ve lost £4,000 in four years, £1,000 a year, £87 a month, £2.88 a day.”
“He’s lost £47,617 in four years, which is £11,900 a year, which is £992 a month or £32 a day.”
Electric vans “genuinely are selling for as cheap as that. Nobody wants them.”
But what about the running costs? “29,000 miles at today’s diesel price is £4,816. The road tax will be £345 a month [I think he means per year. -LP]. So call that £1,380 for four years.” (More on the nightmare tax Brit car drivers have to pay here.)
“Even with the running costs, I am only losing £10,000.”
The EV van owner loses £47,000 even before charging costs.
Though that’s the UK, the high road tax and the higher diesel costs both weigh more heavily on the internal combustion van, and it still comes out ahead.
Now, a 2021 Tesla here in the U.S. with 8,100 miles wouldn’t have depreciated nearly that much, but it appears that there are serious depreciation concerns for pretty much all other manufacturer EVs.
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UK road taxes are astronomical and have substantial surcharges for price and CO₂/km emissions. The basic Crown road tax is £ 341 every six months. Your locality adds substantial additional taxes.
The electric VW van costs more than £ 40,000, so it gets hit with an £ 850 per year road tax surcharge. The diesel van gets hit with a £ 350 or £ 390 per year CO₂ emission surcharge.
Nobody wants the EV version because you cannot assess the remaining life of the battery, which costs almost as much as the vehicle new to replace.
Once you get past the still-unsold “new” vehicles being offered as used at basically new prices due to the way GM subsidizes unsold vehicles on dealer lots, the current listing prices for low mileage (<10k mi) 2025 model year GMC HUMMER 3X trim SUVs, which retailed new just this year well north of $100k, are in the $70k range, even out here in the formerly golden state’s expensive market. That’s closing in on 50% depreciation for driving it off the lot. And even at those prices they are not really moving.
UK road taxes are astronomical and have substantial surcharges for price and CO₂/km emissions. The basic Crown road tax is £ 341 every six months. Your locality adds substantial additional taxes.
The electric VW van costs more than £ 40,000, so it gets hit with an £ 850 per year road tax surcharge. The diesel van gets hit with a £ 350 or £ 390 per year CO₂ emission surcharge.
Nobody wants the EV version because you cannot assess the remaining life of the battery, which costs almost as much as the vehicle new to replace.
Now I understand why the Europeans like cargo bicycles.
Once you get past the still-unsold “new” vehicles being offered as used at basically new prices due to the way GM subsidizes unsold vehicles on dealer lots, the current listing prices for low mileage (<10k mi) 2025 model year GMC HUMMER 3X trim SUVs, which retailed new just this year well north of $100k, are in the $70k range, even out here in the formerly golden state’s expensive market. That’s closing in on 50% depreciation for driving it off the lot. And even at those prices they are not really moving.
I did some related number crunching for Japan recently.
https://ombreolivier.substack.com/p/why-japan-has-few-evs?r=7yrqz
No EVs make no sense – not even when subsidized