A few days ago, Ukraine managed to secure $105 billion, interest-free loan (some reports say $106 billion) from Europe.
European Union leaders agreed on Friday to provide a massive interest-free loan to Ukraine to meet its military and economic needs for the next two years.
The 27-nation bloc’s heads of state had planned to use some of the 210 billion euros ($246 billion) worth of Russian assets that are frozen in Europe, mostly in Belgium. But despite working through the night into Friday morning, they failed to convince Belgium that the country would be protected from any Russian retaliation if it backed the “reparations loan” plan.
They settled on an alternative: borrowing $106 billion on capital markets.
After almost four years of war, the International Monetary Fund estimates that Ukraine will need 137 billion euros ($161 billion) in 2026 and 2027.
Snip.
The European Council said it would use Article 20 of the Treaty of Europe to allow the EU to shoulder debt for a zero-interest loan to Ukraine.
It’s a simpler and possibly safer solution compared to the reparations loans. It is also akin to how the EU took on 750 billion euro in debt in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic for a gigantic economic recovery fund. Large borrowing has become a hallmark of the administration of von der Leyen.
Not all countries agreed to the loan package. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic refused to take on debt for Ukraine, but a deal was reached in which they did not block the loan package and were promised protection from any financial fallout.
Paul Warburg thinks that this loan will actually let Ukraine survive 5-7 years. This follows up his video on how Ukraine is winning the war of attrition, comparing Russia’s situation to Germany in World War I and the Soviet Union’s defeat in Afghanistan.
Russia’s economy was already showing visible cracks before Ukraine started hitting its oil exporting infrastructure, and the EU’s latest loan may well allow Ukraine to continue fighting until Russia’s economy collapses from the strain of continuing its illegal war of territorial aggression.
Tags: Czech Republic, economy, EU, Hungary, Military, Paul Warburg, Russia, Russo-Ukrainian War, Slovakia, Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen
“Paul Warburg thinks that this loan will actually let Ukraine survive 5-7 years.”
It’s all so tiresome.
The Ukrainian kleptocracy steals $ 50 billion a year. This loan will not keep them going for longer than a year.
Warburg is a lying idiot divorced from reality. If you care to read a concise, factual analysis of Russia’s economic circumstances, go to bne IntelliNews:
‘MOSCOW BLOG: Is Russia close to collapse? Russia vs US wartime budget deficits’
By Ben Aris in Berlin, December 19, 2025
Aris is an avowed Ukraine supporter, but does not drink the Kool-Aid. bne InetelliNews specializes in economic coverage of centeral and eastern Europe. They didn’t just become an internet expert two years ago. Ben Aris’ money shot:
“One of the failures of the sanction’s regime is that the West massively underestimated the quality of Russia’s economic and financial management team, while at the same time massively overestimated the quality of its own management team or the bounce back effect of sanctions on Europe’s economy.”
France, Germany, and the UK will collapse financially long before Russia. They are already in desperate financial straits. Why they want this war to continue.
“The ipse dixit fallacy occurs when someone makes a claim without providing evidence, relying solely on their authority or assertion that ‘it is so’ because they said it. This type of argument avoids addressing the actual issue and lacks supporting proof.”
Let me try my hand at this new game: Iran, North Korea and Russia will collapse financially long before Ukraine. They are already in desperate financial straits. Why they want this war to continue.
It is nearly impossible to destroy an agricultural economy. After Russia’s defeat, Ukraine will go back to what they were doing before the war: growing grain and exporting sunflower oil.
The Soviet inspired famine of 1932–33 is often called the Holodomor, a term derived from the Ukrainian words for hunger (holod) and extermination (mor).
Millions of Ukrainians perished in this genocide. Yet the land retains its fertility and once the Russian mine fields are cleared, Ukrainian farmers will plant and harvest as always.
The many hundreds of damaged and destroyed tanks littering their fields will be towed to a smelting mill and turned into farm implements–swords into plowshares
Whatever remains of the Russian army will return home to their allotment of fried cabbage and cheap vodka. There, they will be treated as traitors to the Motheland while bearing the yoke of political oppression that has been fitted to them throughout their pitiful history by Czar and commissar alike
Ukranian will sow wheat and reap bread; Russians will sow terror and reap tears.
Agriculture is about 7.5% of Ukraine’s economy. This is the same proportion as China. The Ukrainian metallurgical and machinery sectors were larger than the agricultural sector prior to 2022, but are now wrecked. The vast majority of Ukrainians have no idea how to farm.
Russia, including Ukraine, suffered killing famines about every 8 years on average in the centuries before WW II. The Ukrainians got off relatively easy in 1932 when compared to other regions of the USSR. Half the populations of Kazakhstan and Volgograd died of starvation in 1932. The Russian and Soviet states were never very good at detecting famines and poor transportation made alleviating famine in remote areas almost impossible once detected.