Posts Tagged ‘Elections’

“There are no moderate Democrats in Congress”

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

This Jim Geraghty piece up on NRO, in which he he interviews longtime GOP insider “Obi Wan” about the coming election, is well worth a read.

This is the quote I found most striking:

“There are no moderate Democrats in Congress, because when you vote for a supposed Blue Dog you are voting for the enablers-the ones who keep the House and Senate run by liberals”

For much the same reason there’s no such thing as a pro-gun Democrat.

Blanche Lincoln Polling at 27%

Friday, August 20th, 2010

How unpopular are Democrats this year? Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas is polling at 27%, compared to Republican challenger John Boozman’s 65%. I’m struggling (and failing) to think of non-indicted incumbent senator polling so low before the general election. As far as I know, Lincoln has not been struck with and personal or bribery scandals. No, she’s just this unpopular for supporting the Obama agenda in general, and for casting the deciding Senate vote in favor of ObamaCare specifically. This year, that’s enough to make you a pariah in red states.

Republicans to Gain 100 Seats in House?

Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics suggests that Democrats could be in for a bigger shellacking this November than the suffered even in 1994.

A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

He foresees a bad economy, a controversial agenda (i.e, the deep unpopularity of runway spending in general and ObamaCare in specific) and the reversal of the 2006-2008 Democratic wins in traditionally Republican districts combining for a perfect storm of voter anger directed at the Democratic party.

Also this:

Remember, Republicans don’t need to win in Massachusetts for a landslide; they could pick up seventy seats without winning a single one in a Democratic-leaning district.

Certainly it’s too early for premature celebration; six months is a long time in politics. But there’s good reason for Republicans to be optimistic…if they don’t blow it.

If Michael Steele isn’t scrambling to make sure every Democratic incumbent has at least one Republican challenger for the general election, he’s not doing his job.

Remember to Vote in the April 13 Republican Primary Runoff

Monday, April 12th, 2010

Here are poll locations for Williamson County voters.

And here’s where you can find them for Travis County.

BattleSwarm Blog endorses Larry Gonzales in the House District 52 Runoff

Thursday, April 8th, 2010

Lawrence Person’s BattleSwarm Blog endorses Larry Gonzales over John Gordon in the House District 52 Republican Primary runoff on April 13th. I believe that Gonzales is the better candidate, will have a better chance of winning against Diana Maldonado, and will be a better Representative in the Texas House than Gordon would.

Because both Gonzales and Gordon have been unfailing courteous about answering my questions, I want to make clear that I’m making this decision without any animosity and based solely on the facts at my disposal. I do not know either gentlemen personally, I am not privy to the inner workings of the Williamson County Republican Party, and have no knowledge about either that cannot be gleaned from receiving their campaign literature and searching the internet. And because Gordon has been so cooperative, I feel it only fair to explain the reasons for my decision, and especially which factors were and were not important in making it.

The relative ideological beliefs of the two candidates was not a deciding factor. I do believe that Gordon is genuinely conservative, and should he win the nomination, I would vote for him over Maldonado. I believe that Gonzales is also a solidly conservative candidate, and I find the political differences between them fairly minor. In fact, on two of the issues Gordon points out as differences between himself and Gonzales (opposition to an RRISD bond election, and opposition to public sports subsidies), I would support the same position as Gordon. (On a third, the extension of drinking hours, being of a generally libertarian disposition I would have supported the same postion Gonzales did; I do not think government should have any role saving people from themselves). It is possible that Gordon might, say, pull the voting lever in the state house how I would 95 times out of a hundred, while Gonzales might only pull it how I would vote 93 times out of a hundred. This is, to my mind, too small a difference to worry over.

The recent mailers and the information on http://www.thetruejohngordon.com were not themselves decisive, in that they largely contained information I already knew. Indeed, since I’m endorsing his opponent, I would like to take the opportunity to bend over backwards to clarify which items were not a factor in my decision:

  • I’m not particularly bothered by the Randy Staudt lawsuit. Granted, I would be unlikely to do paying work for a close friend, and if I did anything more than a trivial amount of it, I’d certainly get a written contract. (The famous saying is that “A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.”) But if someone owed me $7,000, much less $24,000, you bet I would eventually take them to court if they didn’t pay up, friend or not.
  • Assuming Gordon’s account is correct, I approve of the lawsuit he filed against Round Rock ISD, as I do not feel any government entity should feel free to violate the open meeting act, especially for a major decision like buying land.
  • I don’t care that he’s racked up several speeding tickets. My guess would be that between 1997 and 2004, I probably racked up more myself.

All of that said, however, the sheer number of incidents, as well as the many others covered by http://www.thetruejohngordon.com, do point to the main reason I cannot endorse John Gordon, namely temperament. There’s nothing wrong with being spirited. There are many times when it is appropriate for a congressmen to be combative (see, for example, Newt Gingrich in 1994). However, Gordon seems not merely spirited or combative but abrasive, alienating not just his political opponents, but friends and fellow Republicans. Time and time again he’s proven a very poor judge of his own self-interest, pursuing confrontational strategies when a softer approach might have produced better results, and spending his time and effort fighting needless battles that could have been avoided.

Take, for example, that traffic stop video. If you want to avoid getting a ticket, the first rule is to be polite, friendly and non-threatening. After all, policemen and highway patrolmen are just doing their job. But one thing you do not do is say things like “Let me tell you what officer,” “Believe me, it will go all the way up” and state sarcastically “You’ve got to be kidding me!” Indeed, I would think that anyone over the age of about 25 (much less 60) should know that this approach is likely to achieve, shall we say, sub-optimal results. You’re not going to win a verbal pissing contest with a police officer at a traffic stop, and the fact that John Gordon evidently feels he needs to does not reflect kindly on his temperament or judgment.

You may very well beat a ticky-tacky charge like this in court, but acting like a jerk at the stop itself is pure mule-headed stupidity. Indeed, I’ve never gotten a ticket (or even been stopped) for such minor offenses; the fact that John Gordon has, and gets tickets for them, seems to suggest that he has something of a history with local law enforcement agencies. And while I heartily defend the right of the accused to demand jury trials for traffic infractions, the fact Gordon seems to have done so for every single ticket he’s received suggests that to him, winning is far more important than the time and money involved in going to court. An effective politician has to pick his battles; John Gordon seems to go out of his way to pick fights.

While having a boot put on my car (even in error) certainly wouldn’t make my day, no way would I go all Homer Simpson by taking a crowbar to the boot. Doing something like that suggests that Gordon suffers from dangerous levels of hot-hotheadedness. Nobody is above the law, and acting like you are won’t win you many friends.

Another incident that highlights his lack of judgment is his lawsuit over Alyssa Eacono’s residency requirements. Regardless of the technical merits of the case, it was obvious very early on that Larry Gonzales was going to be Gordon’s major opponent in the District 52 primary. Why spend the time, money, and effort (three of a candidate’s most precious commodities) to attack someone who wasn’t a major competitor? Suing Eacono instead of spending the same effort directly engaging Gonzales suggests very poor tactical sense.

And speaking of engaging Gonzales and poor tactics, I believe Gordon’s decision to make Gonzales’ campaign funding from Bob Perry his biggest attack issue was a major strategic blunder. Do I worry about Gonzales getting so much of his funding from Perry? Yeah. Slightly. A candidate’s financial backers are always a legitimate concern. But it’s not like he’s getting his money from George Soros. If you look at Perry’s campaign contribution recipients for this election cycle, 2008, or all the way back to 2000, the overwhelming majority of his contributions are to solidly conservative Republican candidates and causes (Phil Gramm, John Carter, etc.), with an occasional Democrat mixed in. If Gordon wanted to make Perry’s contributions a significant issue, he should have made the case exactly how and why Perry’s interests were inimical to those of Williamson County voters, not merely expect that an attack mailer showing Gonzales as a puppet would be sufficient to make that case for him.

And speaking of campaign finances, for someone who has spent so much time harping on his opponent’s campaign contributions, Gordon’s base of campaign contributors seems pretty small. If you add up all the individual contributors whose names don’t end in “Gordon” from all five of his campaign filings (7/13/09, 1/3/10, 1/27/10, 2/22/10, 4/5/10), you get a grand total of 35 names (and that includes “in kind” voter information from the Republican Party). There’s nothing wrong with self-financing your campaign, but for someone who’s harped on Gonzales’ contributions from outside the district and has made so much of his efforts building the Republican Party in Williamson County, Gordon supporters inside it seem remarkably thin on the ground.

By contrast, if you look at Gonzales’ reports for the same period of time, you get well over 150 individual contributors. Some of those are from out of district (San Antonio and Houston), and about five from out of state. However, Gonzales has more contributors from Round Rock alone (to say nothing of Georgetown, Austin, or Taylor) than Gordon has total.

I could go on to point out little things like the fact that the news and highlights section of his website still says “Content coming soon” more than a month after the primary as an example of poor attention to detail, but the central issue is still Gordon’s hot-headedness and lack of judgment. Even though the http://www.thetruejohngordon.com website contains little that attentive observers of the race didn’t already know, it is a very effective piece of negative campaigning because it gathers all those individual issues in one place and reinforces doubts many voters already had about him.

By contrast, Larry Gonzales is a thoughtful, intelligent and conservative candidate who has run a very smart (and, until the recent round of attack ads, very issue-based) campaign and garnered a broad base of Republican support. He seems more than capable of doing the job, and doesn’t come with Gordon’s baggage. I’ll be voting for Larry Gonzales in the House District 52 Primary runoff on April 13th, and encourage all District 52 voters to do the same.

Former Candidate Stephen Casey on the Texas House District 52 Race

Thursday, March 25th, 2010

There’s a primary runoff for various races to be held on April 13. Since primary runoffs are notoriously low-turnout affairs (especially this year, with the high-profile Governor’s primary over), I thought I would do some coverage of the three Republican runoffs I’ll be voting in:

  • The Supreme Court of Texas Place 3 runoff between Rick Green and Debra Lehrmann
  • The State Board of Education District 10 runoff between Marsha Farney and Brian Russell
  • The Texas House District 52 runoff between Larry Gonzales and John Gordon

I want to address the last of these first. The results from the Texas House District 52 primary were:

John Gordon 4,454 (40.84%)
Larry Gonzales 4,091 (37.51%)
Stephen Casey 1,535 (14.07%)
Alyssa Eacono 825 (7.56%)

To start off, I’d like to do something a little different, and interview one of the losing candidates for the position, Stephen Casey. Casey earned my vote by being a staunch conservative, having some interesting ideas as to how to reform the tax system, and posted supporting quotations from The Federalist Papers on his issues page, something that warmed the cockles of my policy-wonkish heart. After coming in third, Casey endorsed Gonzales in the runoff.

I wanted to get Casey’s views on the race, as well as the election process in general, before moving on to Gonzales and Gordon. (I also wanted to get Alyssa Eacono’s views, but she’s already taken down her campaign website.) I sent Casey some questions via email, and he was kind enough to provide answers to them. My original questions are in italics below.

1. What prompted you to get into the race in the first place?

I was called to run; it is an internal prompting that, in light of the current political landscape, sought to restore the idea of “public servant” to this office. Too often people are elected and fill the office without making a significant difference to the district or state. I ran to change that.

2. Do you think the race received enough attention from local media outlets for voters to make an informed choice?

To a certain extent. The only drawback I see is that I ran an issues-based campaign and believe that local media does not offer enough time to discuss the issues in depth; rather it is short sound-byte type attention that “makes news” which gets printed.

3. Obviously Gonzales and Gordon had a significant fund-raising advantage over both you and Eacono. How did you go about raising money, and was the lack of it a significant hindrance to your campaign?

I believe I received what I needed to do what I was called to do. With any race, funding is important. I’m pleased to have come in third with the funding that I had. To receive 14% of the vote means that I had a strong vote/dollar ratio. This means the message has great value.

4. One of you major campaign proposals was to abolish a personal property tax and replace it with a consumption tax. How well was this proposal received, and do you think the voters and/or legislature is willing to consider such a huge tax system overhaul?

This proposal was received well and it is gaining momentum. It is hard to both campaign on an issue and “inform” voters on it at the same time. This was made a bit easier because it became an issue at the gubernatorial level and for good reason–it could help solve this upcoming budget shortfall if we truly grasped the boon to our economic cycle that would happen if we eliminated the property tax. We would be able to overcome, with fewer cuts, the upcoming projected
shortfall.

5. What was the main reason you endorsed Gonzales over Gordon?

I found Larry to have a personal approach, as well as a positive character and reputation community-wide that was friendly and personable even over
disagreeable issues. In addition, he has served people in a variety of capacities and done so with integrity.

6. If you had it to do over again, what would you do differently with your campaign?

Campaign infrastructure is important, and I learned a great deal. I still would lead with what I consider the most important question, “How Can I Serve You?”, but would ask more voters to volunteer time as well as contribute.

7. Any other thoughts you’d like to share with readers on the race, or politics in general?

First, thanks to everyone who was involved in any manner in these races, and a more specific thank you to those who supported me through prayer and action. Please turn out to support Larry Gonzales for this runoff.

We need to think deeply and act with conviction regarding representative government. This means understanding our state’s founders and our nation’s founders as well as what they read and believed. Be involved and take seriously the privilege of self-government as it will only last as long as our involvement.

Thanks to Stephen Casey for responding. I hope to interview both Gonzales and Gordon in future posts.

Republican Primary on Tuesday, March 2nd: House District 52

Sunday, February 28th, 2010

Another election season is upon us. If you’re anything like me, down-ballot local races don’t get a lot of my attention until the election is nearly upon me. As partial recompense, I’ll try to through up a few links to southern Williamson County races, starting with Texas House District 52.

Here’s an overview of all Williamson County races from the people at Impact News (which provides a surprisingly good free monthly newspaper).

Here are links to the issue pages of the four candidates respective websites:

And here are some resource links on the race:

Quick and Dirty Analysis: Gonzales is probably the closest to an “insider” in the race, having garnered the most endorsements, and he and Gordon (running as the Christian/social conservative “values I learned from my father” candidate) have raised the most money. Alyssa Eacono and Stephen Casey are somewhat policy wonkish longshots. Right now I’m sort of leaning toward Casey, in the full expectation that he’ll get slaughtered in the primary. My guess would be Gonzales either wins outright or goes to a runoff with Gordon. All would be a vast improvement over Democratic incumbent Diana Maldonado.

Premonitions of a Democratic House Slaughter in 2010?

Friday, November 13th, 2009

Next year is shaping up as potentially disastrous for House Democrats. Especially given:

I hope to take a further look at some of the most vulnerable Democratic House members who voted for ObamaCare in greater detail at some point in the not-so-distant future.

ObamaCare Daily Roundup

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Well, let’s see what’s been going on in the world of ObamaCare:

  • 10,000 rally in DC against ObamaCare.
  • Charles Krauthammer: “If you are a conservative Democrat and you see the great swing between ’08 and ’09, you know that this idea that you can ride the coattails of Obama — [that] there was a great realignment last year — is false, and they are now extremely exposed.”
  • Dick Morris and Eileen McGann are even blunter: “Are the elections of 2009 precursors of the same kind of massive partisan upheaval in Congress that we experienced in 1994? The historical data says yes, they are….For the House to pass Obama’s healthcare bill five days after so huge a repudiation of the Democratic Party and its program is breathtaking in its arrogance. Voters all over America will get the point: The congressional Democrats don’t give a damn what the voters think.”
  • Karl Rove also sees the results as disasterous for Democrats: “Tuesday’s elections should put a scare into red state Democrats—and a few blue state ones, too….Looking ahead, the bad news for Democrats is that the legislation that helped lead to the collapse of support for their party on Tuesday could yet inflict more pain on those foolish enough to support it. The health-care bill House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to vote on this week could sink an entire fleet of Democratic boats in 2010….Tuesday’s results were the first sign that voters are revolting against runaway spending and government expansion. But Democrat likely ain’t seen nothin’ yet if they try to ram through health-care reform.”
  • Displaying her keen, Zapp Brannigan-esque sense of strategy and timing, Nancy Pelosi cries “Onward into the machine gun fire!”
  • But she’d rather see it fail than give up taxpayer funding for abortion.
  • The Reid and Pelosi bills are going to cost more than projected. A whole lot more.
  • The Heritage Foundation takes a gander at Pelosi’s version of ObamaCare and finds it lays out the foundation for a “complete government take over of the health care sector of our economy.”

  • The Wall Street Journal calls it “Worst. Bill. Ever.” (Actually, they just say worst since the New Deal; after all, the infamy isn’t quite the same as the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850. However, as bad as it is, I’m not sure the results of ObamaCare be quite as baleful as the Economic Opportunity Act enacted as part of LBJ’s Great Society programs that helped bring up us intergenerational welfare dependency and the destruction of the black family structure in America.)

  • Shockingly, there is a health care reform plan that the Congressional Budget Office says will reduce premiums and cut deficits. So when does that one get a vote? Answer: Never. That’s the Republican plan

(Hat tips to Instapundit, Real Clear Politics, and The Corner, among others…)

Three Cheers for Aggieland

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

I’m a UT graduate, and I follow football. (I know, “rooting for laundry.”) Here in Texas, the UT Longhorns have a friendly rivalry with the Texas A&M Aggies (“friendly” in the sense of “no recent homicides on record” and “rivalry” in the sense that the Longhorns won a National Championship in 2006, while A&M’s biggest post-season accomplishment this decade was winning the last GallereyFurniture.com Bowl in 2001).

However, today this Longhorn fan would like to offer up three cheers to the stalwart denizens of Aggieland for voting down redlight cameras. Study after study has shown red light cameras actually increase accidents, and merely exist as a way of extracting yet more money from taxpayers, and to line the pockets of the companies that sell and run them. (And, as always when money and politics are combined, one hand washes the other.) Good riddance to a bad idea, and hopefully more Texas municipalities (Round Rock, I’m looking in your direction) will follow suit.

As for Aggie football returning to its glory days, well…A&M is currently 5-3, and should be favored against Baylor and Colorado, so a sweet berth in the Texas Bowl (the successor to the GallereyFurniture.com Bowl) is well within reach…