Posts Tagged ‘polls’
Thursday, February 4th, 2016
Ever see John Huston’s The Man Who Would Be King, the film starring Sean Connery and Michael Cain based on the Rudyard Kipling story of the same name? It features Connery as a British soldier mistaken for a god by a remote tribe, a mistake Connery plays to his advantage, right up until his would-be queen bites him, the resulting blood proving that he’s a mere mortal.
His subsequent fall is swift.
I’m reminded of that fall by news that, according to a PPP poll, Donald Trump has dropped nine points following his second place finish in Iowa. Trump’s sense of popular inevitability was always one of his greatest assets, but after Ted Cruz successfully smote him, Trump too has been revealed as a mere mortal, and that sense of inevitability is bleeding away…
(Hat tip: Bad Blue.)
Tags:2016 Election, 2016 Presidential Race, Donald Trump, Elections, Iowa, polls, PPP, Republicans, Ted Cruz
Posted in Elections, Republicans | 1 Comment »
Tuesday, January 19th, 2016
Bernie Sanders was already up over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, but not by this much:
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has opened up his widest lead yet over rival Hillary Clinton in the crucial state of New Hampshire, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
The new WMUR/CNN poll out this afternoon shows the Vermont lawmaker with a whopping 27-point lead over the former Secretary of State — 60-33 percent. That’s a climb of 10 percentage points for Sanders since mid-December and a drop of 7 points for Clinton. It marks Sanders’ highest support and widest lead in any poll in any state so far.
The usual poll caveats and the fact that Sanders hails from neighboring Vermont applies. But that sort of result would have looked positively loony six months ago. Now? It’s just another data point in Hillary’s catastrophic collapse.
Hillary can surviving losing to Sanders in New Hampshire, but I’m not sure she can survive getting walloped by that much…
Tags:2016 Election, 2016 Presidential Race, Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire, polls
Posted in Democrats, Elections | No Comments »
Sunday, December 13th, 2015
It was easy to dismiss the first poll that showed Ted Cruz up over Donald Trump in Iowa as an outlier. However, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows Cruz up a hefty 10 points over Trump.
“Seven weeks from the caucuses, Ted Cruz is crushing it in Iowa.
“The anti-establishment congressional agitator has made a rapid ascent into the lead in the GOP presidential race here, with a 21 percentage-point leap that smashes records for upsurges in recent Iowa caucuses history.”
Snip.
“‘Big shakeup,’ said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll. ‘This is a sudden move into a commanding position for Cruz.'”
Cruz is in a great spot. I just hope he’s not peaking too early…
Tags:2016 Election, 2016 Presidential Race, Donald Trump, Elections, Iowa, polls, Republicans, Ted Cruz
Posted in Elections, Republicans | No Comments »
Wednesday, September 30th, 2015
So NBC/WSJ/Telemundo Polls Latinos did a POLL on Presidential candidates, and just happened to leave off Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.
Funny how that could happen.
It’s less a case of the mask slipping than of NBC not even trying to hide the fact it’s an extension of the Democratic Party…
Tags:2016 Election, 2016 Presidential Race, Elections, Hispanics, Marco Rubio, Media Watch, NBC, polls, Republicans, Ted Cruz, Telemundo
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Media Watch, Republicans | No Comments »
Monday, September 14th, 2015
Early polls, plenty of time, yadda yadda. But there’s no way that a presumptive frontrunner should be down 10 points in Iowa to an elderly socialist.
Also, in New Hampshire, Sanders leads Hillary “by a whopping 52 percent to 30 percent.”
Tags:2016 Election, 2016 Presidential Race, Bernie Sanders, Democrats, Elections, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, polls
Posted in Democrats, Elections | No Comments »
Wednesday, August 5th, 2015
This doesn’t sound like good news for Team Inevitable:
Many Democrats have long hoped that Hillary Clinton might expand Barack Obama‘s electoral coalition by drawing in more white women voters.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll suggests she may have a tough time pulling it off. Mrs. Clinton is losing ground with white women and many other important slices of the electorate, the poll shows, amid a spate of reports about her email practices, speaking fees and foreign donations to the Clinton Foundation.
In June, 44% of white women had a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, compared to 43% who didn’t. In July, those numbers moved in the wrong direction for Mrs. Clinton: Only 34% of white women saw her in a positive light, compared to 53% who had a negative impression of her, the poll found.
Gee, turns out women voters aren’t wild about an inept politicians with anger and entitlement issues who consistently breaks both ethics guidelines and the law for personal gain. Who knew?
Good thing for Hillary that white women aren’t an important part of her voting coalition…
Tags:2016 Election, 2016 Presidential Race, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton Scandals, polls
Posted in Democrats, Elections | No Comments »
Wednesday, May 6th, 2015
A new Quinnipiac poll of Iowa is out, and it shows Jeb Bush losing to, well, pretty much everyone:
Only 5% of likely Iowa GOP caucus-goers told Quinnipiac University pollsters that they planned to vote for Bush, placing him No. 7 in the field of declared or potential 2016 candidates.
Even worse for Bush: He may not have as much room to grow over the next year as other candidates do. One-quarter of Republicans said they definitely could not support Bush, the lowest ceiling of support of any candidate in the Hawkeye State, and 45% said Bush was “not conservative enough.”
The top Republican in Iowa is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who garnered support from 21% of those surveyed. Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz of Texas, Marco Rubio of Florida, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are tightly packed for second place, each earned between 13% and 11% support. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who unveiled his campaign on Monday, tallied 7% of the vote.
Jeb Bush losing to Scott Walker, Ran Paul, and Ted Cruz isn’t a surprise; Bush losing to Ben Carson, a political neophyte who has no chance to win the nomination, is.
When you dig further, Bush’s basic unpopularity rating comes to the fore: “Negative 39 – 45 percent favorability rating for Bush, and 36 percent saying he’s about right on issues, while 45 percent say he’s not conservative enough.”
Polls this early are essentially meaningless (remember when Howard Dean was going to win Iowa?), but the fact Bush is polling so poorly this early suggests both that he’s deeply unpopular with the base, and that he has yet to build an effective political operation in Iowa. Remember, George W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses handily over Steve Forbes in 2000 (McCain didn’t even pull 5%).
So far, Jeb Bush is running considerably behind expectations.
Tags:2016 Election, 2016 Presidential Race, Elections, Howard Dean, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, polls, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz
Posted in Elections, Republicans | No Comments »
Saturday, February 28th, 2015
Rand Paul won the 2015 CPAC Presidential Straw Poll with
Paul came in first with 25.7%, while Scott Walker came in second with 21.4% of the vote, and Ted Cruz came in third with 11.5% of the vote, just edging out Dr. Ben Carson at 11.4%. (Carson is 2016’s Herman Cain: The attractive outsider with no real chance of winning. The presidency is not an entry level job…)
Complete results via the magic of Twitter:
Does this mean Rand Paul is the GOP front runner? Not really, since that total is down four points from his father Ron Paul’s showing in 2011. Ron Paul would go on to pick up a smattering of delegates and place first in the U.S. Virgin islands primaries, which did not catapult him to the nomination. Mitt Romney placed second in the CPAC poll before going on to win the nomination.
Now, I happen to believe that Rand Paul is a much more viable GOP candidate than Ron Paul was (though not as viable as Scott Walker or Ted Cruz), but the Rand Paul’s CPAC win shows no sign of him breaking out of Ron Paul’s ideological base, which is not enough for him to win more than (at most) three or four primaries.
Based on polls in Iowa and elsewhere, Scott Walker should probably be considered the font-runner, and the CPAC result doesn’t change that.
Tags:2016 Election, Ben Carson, CPAC, polls, Rand Paul, Republicans, Ron Paul, Scott Walker, straw poll, Ted Cruz
Posted in Elections, Republicans | No Comments »
Thursday, January 8th, 2015
In the wake of the Charlie Hebdo shootings, the MSM has trotted out the usual talking points that such extremists views and actions are “not about Islam” and represent “only a tiny percentage” of all Muslims.
There’s just one tiny problem with this theory: It isn’t true.
Polls show that something like 20% of Muslim populations worldwide agree with terrorists, and far more agree with their aims as far as the imposition of Sharia law. Other findings from Pew (which is rarely accused of a right-wing bias):
Muslim support for stoning as a punishment for adultery is more than 20% in all countries surveyed.
Support for the death penalty for apostasy ranges from 4% of Muslims in Kazakhstan to 86% in Egypt.
Fully 99% of Afghan Muslims want Sharia law, which makes it hard to regard our long-term intervention there as anything but a failure.
In the UK, in another poll from 2006, 20% of surveyed Muslims supported the 2005 7/7 suicide attacks, and 40% supported the imposition of Sharia law.
So: Not a “small minority.” And, as Brigitte Gabriel notes in the video below, so what if “most” Muslims are peaceful? The “mostly peaceful” citizens of Germany, Japan, China and the Soviet Union didn’t prevent those who controlled their governments from murdering millions:
One of the first steps toward dealing with the problem of radical Islam is to stop repeating comforting lies about it.
Tags:Charlie Hebdo, Islam, Jihad, Media Watch, polls, terrorism, video
Posted in Jihad, Media Watch, video | No Comments »
Wednesday, September 24th, 2014
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Colorado’s incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper down ten points to Republican challenger Bob Beauprez.
Michelle Malkin explains why:
It was Hickenlooper who caved to East Coast gun-control zealots and partisan White House lobbying. As Democratic state legislators rigged the hearing process, snubbed Colorado constituents and insulted Second Amendment-supporting women during hearings last year, Hickenlooper was chumming it up on the phone with New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Vice President Joe Biden.
You may remember how well ramming through gun control initiatives worked out for Colorado Democrats: Two Democratic state senators got recalled and a third resigned rather than face a recall election.
Hickenlooper was a key player in getting those unpopular measures passed, and this year he may pay the price for it, despite his incredulity at the issue being held against him. (“”What the f—? I apologized!”)
For all the talk of Colorado turning blue, keep in mind that Obama only won 51.5% of the vote in 2012. And if Hickenlooper loses, that will leave exactly one Democratic governor “left standing between California and Missouri.”
Even a Washington Post piece that poo-poos the Quinnipiac poll notes that Hickenlooper has “refused to make clear his position.” They were talking about his position on the Keystone pipeline, but the description applies just as well to a number of other issues Hickenlooper has refused to take a stand on. Long-time political observers know exactly what such reticence indicates: A liberal politician unwilling to let voters know exactly how far-left and out of touch his core convictions are compared to theirs.
One of those issues is flip-flopping on whether to allow the execution of a convicted murderer:
Last month, Bob Crowell — father of 19-year-old murder victim Sylvia Crowell — blasted Hickenlooper for indefinitely delaying the execution of mass murderer Nathan Dunlap. When Hickenlooper confided in CNN that he might grant Dunlap clemency if he loses in November, Crowell didn’t mince words. “I think that’s the coward’s way out, and I view John Hickenlooper as a coward.”
After the recall, I wrote “Bottom line: If you’re a politician, and you choose to listen to Nurse Bloomberg rather than your constituents, you will be replaced.” I suspect that John Hickenlooper is about to learn that, good and hard.
Tags:2014 Election, Bob Beauprez, Colorado, Colorado Recall, Democrats, Elections, Guns, John Hickenlooper, polls
Posted in Democrats, Elections, Guns | No Comments »