Posts Tagged ‘Texas’

Texas Senate Race Update for July 29, 2011

Friday, July 29th, 2011

A few tidbits of Texas senate race news for a lazy Friday:

  • There is a Tour of Texas Senatorial Forum in Austin tomorrow, Saturday July 30th, 2011, from 4:00 – 6:00 PM at the Texas Capitol Extension Auditorium at 1100 N Congress Ave, Room E1.004. I expect to attend, and hopefully should get a chance to interview one of the candidates before the forum, if all goes well.
  • Hotline on Call on how conservative senators in D.C. want Cruz to join their ranks.
  • Mark Whittington on Cruz vs. Dewhurst, and the outsider vs. insider dynamic.
  • David Dewhurst meets with the McLennan County Republican Women’s Club.
  • Cruz takes credit for four straight straw poll wins.
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones spoke in Lubbock.
  • I’ve actually been looking for Ricardo Sanchez news and not finding any, or rather the only news is non-news: There was a liberal “Texas Labor Rally to Protect Social Security and Medicare” he was scheduled to appear at…and he didn’t even bother to show up.
  • Texas Senate Race Updates For July 26, 2011

    Tuesday, July 26th, 2011

    I’ve been meaning to do a general Senate Race update all weekend, but things have been hopping:

  • Jim Geraghty has a piece up over at National Review Online on Ricardo Sanchez’s disappointing debut. I get quoted on the race.
  • Ted Cruz wins the endorsement of Rand Paul.
  • Cruz defends Rick Perry’s upcoming prayer meeting.
  • U.S. Rep. Michael Burgess, representing Texas’ 26th Congressional District, endorses Tom Leppert. The 26th runs from south of Ft. Worth up to the Oklahoma border (or at least did before this year’s redistricting), so it’s right in Leppert’s backyard. Though not one of the more prominent members of the Texas delegation, Burgess has an impressive 95% rating from the American Conservative Union, making this really the first notable conservative endorsement Leppert has picked up.
  • A report on the candidates forum sponsored by the Denton County Republican Party last week.
  • Leppert get’s a mostly flattering profile by Big Jolly Politics’ David Jennings, though Jennings does ding him for his support for Dallas workers to unionize. (Jennings doesn’t mention Leppert’s contributions to liberal Democrat Ron Kirk’s Senate campaign.) Jennings also says he doesn’t have much use for the term “RINO”:

    By now, if you have read this far, it should be clear that Mr. Leppert is not some wild-eyed liberal trying to pick the pockets of the taxpayer. You wouldn’t know that if you listened to the self-appointed RINO hunters in the Texas Republican party. Gawd I hate that term.

    Hmmm. I may resemble that remark…

  • Leppert’s communication guy Shawn McCoy is leaving the campaign, being replaced by Daniel Keylin, though Leppert campaign manager Josh Kivett will be handling those duties during a transition period.
  • If David Dewhurst wants to convince conservative’s he’s one of us, maybe he shouldn’t have picked the campaign manager for Arnold Schwarzenegger.
  • Elizabeth Ames Jones was on the Mark Davis show on WBAP.
  • Texas Senate Race Spending: A Look at This Point In Previous Cycles

    Monday, July 25th, 2011

    Now that half the fundraising year has passed, I wanted to take a look at how the funds raised this year compare to this point in years past.

    Unfortunately, it’s been so long since there’s been a competitive regular Republican Senate primary in Texas (I’m discounting the special election of 1993 because it’s difficult to compare special elections to regular elections) that it’s hard to find a precedent for that side of the race. John Cornyn had no serious competition in 2002. Indeed, you’d have to go back to Beau Boulter vs. Wes Gilbreath in 1988 for a truly competitive regular Texas Republican senatorial primary. And the main FEC page doesn’t go back before 1999.

    So let’s look at the Democratic side of the race, where there’s a lot more precedent for an open race. While my initial assessment of Ricardo Snachez’s $160,000 was it was about what you’d expect given his late start, it seems disappointing in light of what previous Democratic senatorial candidates were able to raise.

    2008 Senate Race

    For the 2008 race against John Cornyn, trail lawyer Mikal C. Watts had already raised over $3 million by July of 2007, mostly through self-funding. What, you never heard of Watts? That might be because, despite his financial firepower, he dropped out of the race before the primary. Why? Well, it might have something to do with the fact that letters came out showing him pressuring litigation targets to settle by bragging about how much money he had contributed to appellate judges who would hear the case:

    “This court is comprised of six justices, all of whom are good Democrats,” Watts wrote. “The Chief Justice, Hon. Rogelio Valdez, was recently elected with our firm’s heavy support, and is a man who believes in the sanctity of jury verdicts.”

    The letter goes on to name Justices Errlinda Castillo, Nelda Rodriguez, J. Bonner Dorsey, Federico Hinojosa and Linda Yanez, and says his firm also has financially supported them.

    Strangely enough, this was seen as injuring his election chances, and he dropped out in October. Sanchez might take comfort in the fact that eventual Democratic nominee Rick Norgiega, didn’t even file his paperwork until July 11 of 2007, and that he eventually raised over $4 million. Or it would be comforting, if not for the fact that Cornyn raised $13 million and beat him by 12 percentage points despite the Obama wave in 2008.

    2006 Senate Race

    In the 2006 election cycle, eventual Democratic nominee (and yet another trial lawyer) Barbara Ann Radnofsky had already raised $355,218 by April 5, 2005. By July 5, 2005, she would amass a total of just under half a million dollars. By the time the race was done, she would raise just shy of $1.5 million, and, despite it being a Democratic wave election year, Kay Baily Hutchison would raise over $6 million and would wallop her 61.7% to 36%.

    2002 Senate Race

    Eventual Democratic nominee Ron Kirk didn’t even file his first campaign report until December 7, 2001, and still managed to raise over $9 million for the race. Kirk was part of the Democratic Party’s 2002 “Dream Team” along with Tony Sanchez and John Sharp: One black, one Hispanic, and one white all running serious, well-funded, top of the ticket campaigns in a year in which the party out of the White House usually does well. They all lost. Kirk did better than Sanchez (losing to Rick Perry), but worse than John Sharp (losing to David Dewhurst).

    By the way, Tony Sanchez spent $60 million of his own money for the privilege of getting creamed by Rick Perry, who took over 60% of the vote, thus disproving two theories beloved by political consultants (money is everything, and the Hispanic vote will make Democrats in Texas competitive Real Soon Now) in one fell swoop.

    Conclusion

    Ricardo Sanchez’s military background gives him several distinct advantages other Democratic candidates have not had, but quick access to significant campaign funds is not among them. Certainly the pay for Lieutenant (three star) General in the united States Army isn’t chickenfeed (about $143,000 a year), but it’s far short of what he would need to self-finance his campaign. Financially, Sanchez’s campaign is going to suffer from him not being a trial lawyer, or, well, Ron Kirk, who was (and presumably still is) amazingly well-connected in both business and Democratic political circles.

    Ricardo Sanchez is already behind where most recent Texas Democratic senatorial candidates were during this part of the fundraising cycle. And all of them lost.

    Stanley Garza, Another Longshot Democrat, Joins the Senate Race

    Thursday, July 21st, 2011

    Sean Hubbard now has company in the “Declared Democratic candidates sure to be ignored by the MSM” purgatory, although Stanley Garza’s website says he’s only formed an exploratory committee.

    In 2008, he ran for Tax Assessor/Collector in San Jacinto County…as a Republican. He says border control bills in the most recent legislative session caused him to switch parties. (Someone should tell him that pictures of him with Rick Perry and Michael Williams are not the ideal way to win Democratic votes.)

    A threat to split the Hispanic vote away from Ricardo Sanchez? Given that Garza raised a grand total of $140 in his first quarter of fundraising (including a $100 loan to himself), the answer would tend to point towards no…

    Texas Senate Race Updates for July 20, 2011: Roundup of Reactions to Dewhurst’s Entry

    Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

    Lots of reaction to Lt. Governor David Dewhurst’s long-awaited announcement that he was getting in the Senate race yesterday.

    Here’s Dewhurst’s official announcement:

    Ted Cruz offers a video response:

    That video offers a URL for another Cruz website, https://www.provenconservative.com/, but it’s just a fundraising splash page with a link that leads to the main Cruz website.

    In response to the Dewhurst announcement, the Tom Leppert campaign sent me a press release (which doesn’t appear to be online) stating:

    “It comes as little surprise to me that David Dewhurst has thrown his hat into the ring. Like other career politicians, he has long expressed his interest in a host of higher offices, and I’m glad he has finally settled on the job he wants next.

    “As my Twitter followers know, I have been asking David where he stands on a number of important issues. Now that he’s a candidate he should be ready to tell us whether he will support Congressman Paul Ryan’s budget, fight the NLRB’s attacks on Right to Work, call for an end to Obama’s offshore drilling moratorium and sign the Cut Cap Balance Pledge.

    “This election is about which candidate knows how to spur job growth and restore fiscal responsibility to Washington. The career politicians and lawyers have had their chance, and they’ve failed. It’s time to send a real-life job creator to the U.S. Senate. I’ve signed both sides of a paycheck, and I’ve made the tough choices in both the private sector and as Mayor of Dallas to cut spending and balance budgets.

    “At a time when families are struggling and Washington continues down the wrong path and ignores the tough calls, Texans will choose a new Senator to represent them. They will have three clear choices – a career politician, a lawyer, or a businessman who brings a unique conservative approach to government. Someone who’s signed both sides of a paycheck, grown a business, and cut wasteful spending in both the public and private sector. Who understands firsthand how decisions made in Washington affect the economy. Only one candidate in the race for Senate has created thousands of jobs and made the hard calls that are so lacking in Washington right now.”

    More about the Leppert “lawyer” attack line against Cruz anon (I don’t think it will be successful), but it’s interesting how the Leppert campaign plays up his businessman credentials and never mentions (at least here) that he was Mayor of Dallas for four years.

    They also noted this National Journal Hotline on Call piece on Leppert.

    I can find no online reaction from Elizabeth Ames Jones to Dewhurst entering the race, but she just went from a distant third to an even-more-distant fourth.

    Ross Ramsey at The Texas Tribune noted that Dewhurst had a pretty soft opening, with a bigger event scheduled for later in the week. Ramsey also mentions Glenn Addison among those running, but not the other two GOP longshots (which, given their lack of any serious fundraising while he raised an additional $11,872 in Q2, seems fair).

    Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson says he’ll be running for Lt. Governor in 2014. Agricultural Commissioner Todd Staples is also in the race.

    Paul Burka is not impressed with Dewhurst’s announcement. Laid-off teachers, yadda yadda, but what’s interesting to me is that Burka says he received a Dewhurst robocall for his announcement. This does not strike me as the optimal strategy for disseminating information in the internet age…

    The PJ Tatler on Dewhurst’s announcement:

    Dewhurst is a billionaire and has proven that he can run and win statewide contests in Texas, which can be a challenging state to run in due to its size, its five or six (depending on how you count) major media markets and slew of mid-sized markets, and its diversity. He’ll be formidable, and may even jump to the favorite slot due to his high name recognition alone. And, he speaks Spanish fluently. I’ve seen him handle interviews with Spanish-speaking media on the fly; he’s a pro.

    The Spanish-speaking bit is interesting, but I’m not sure the billionaire part is accurate. Dewhurst is rich, certainly, but I didn’t get the impression that he was that rich.

    The Daily Kossacks still seem to regard Cruz as the real conservative in the race: “While Dewhurst has been dithering on the parapets, his chief rival for the GOP nomination, Ted Cruz, continues to cement his position as the movement conservative standard-bearer.”

    At least one blogger was underwhelmed by the Dewhurst announcement: “With all the fanfare and enthusiasm of a Baptist funeral, Lt. Gov. Dewhurst announced Tuesday that he’d like to be among the number of people Ted Cruz will pwn next March.”

    Other Senate race news:

  • The Washington Post says that Ricardo Sanchez’s fundraising efforts are off to a poor start.
  • Over at the Houston Chronicle, Patricia Kilday Hart displays her poor research skills by declaring that “Retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez is the only announced candidate in the Democratic Primary U.S. Senate race.” Perhaps Sean Hubbard should take up robbing banks, since he seems to be invisible to vast swathes of the MSM.
  • Cruz interviewed by Conservatives in Action.
  • Dewhurst is In

    Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

    It’s official.

    Tom Leppert says he considers Dewhurst, not Ted Cruz, his main competition. Which is what you would expect him to say.

    More details and reactions tomorrow.

    Clarification: Leppert Did Donate $500,000 to His Campaign, But That Wasn’t Among the $750,000 in Reported Constributions

    Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

    Shawn McCoy of the Tom Leppert campaign clarifies Leppert’s Q2 fundraising numbers:

    Yes, Tom invested more of his own money in the campaign. That was not part of the 750k.=
    Not sure if you received our press release—it may help clarify further.
    [Excerpt from attached press release]
    DALLAS, Texas, July 15, 2011 – Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tom Leppert announced today that his campaign banked $1.25 million in the second quarter of 2011. Fueled by over $750,000 in second quarter contributions and another personal investment in the campaign, Leppert continues to lead the field of announced candidates in fundraising. Leppert now has $3.4 million in total cash on hand, with almost $3.2 million in all-important primary cash on hand to spend before voters go to the polls in March.

    Thanks for the clarification. I was half-right in spotting the loan, and mostly wrong in my interpretation of its meaning.

    Texas Senate Race Updates for July 19, 2011

    Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

    Still waiting for Dewhurst to announce his candidacy. (It would be tempting to write a Waiting for Godot parody with Dewhurst in the Godot role, except I suspect the intersection between Texas political junkies and people who would appreciate a good Samuel Beckett parody would result in a fairly small set.) But there’s still plenty of news on the race:

  • Shortly after the Ted Cruz jumped in, he started garnering an impressive array of conservative endorsements, but opponent Michael Williams started with the very impressive endorsement of South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint and the Senate Conservative Fund. Since then, of course, Williams dropped out of the race. And today, DeMint made things more or less unanimous by endorsing Cruz.
  • National Journal on how DeMint is a thorn in Dewhurst’s side.
  • I might be confused, but Tom Leppert’s Q2 fundraising totals are up, and it seems to me that something awful screwy is going on there. Remember, in Q1, Leppert raised $2.6 million, but $1.6 million of that was in the form of a personal loan to his own campaign. Then the Leppert campaign declared that he raised $750,000 in Q2. But you look at his cumulative figures on the FEC page, and his debt is now up to $2.1 million. This would suggest that two-thirds of that $750,000 figure consisted of yet another personal loan to his own campaign, meaning Leppert only raised a paltry $250,000 in contributions. Perhaps I’m wrong, and there’s another explanation, but unless their are similar loans among the yet-to-come Q2 reports of his opponents, not only has Leppert fallen badly behind Cruz, he’s actually fallen behind Elizabeth Ames Jones’s $313,000. It would also validate the Cruz campaign’s contention that Leppert suffers from a very narrow fundraising base. After I post this, I’ll write the Leppert campaign for clarification on his fundraising numbers. Done. See here for an update on those numbers.
  • Texas Senate Race Updates for July 18, 2011

    Monday, July 18th, 2011

    A few quick updates on the Texas Senate Race:

  • Dewhurst sounds like he’s in, to be made official “midweek.”
  • So also says the Denton County GOP chair…
  • …who will be hosting a Senate forum with Ted Cruz, Tom Leppert, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Lela Pettinger, and (presumably) Dewhurst.
  • Jason Embry in the Statesman joins the chorus of those saying that Cruz has the momentum in the race.
  • Ex-senate candidate Michael Williams Q2 fundraising report is up. He raised a respectable $550,018, which would have been better than his Q1 numbers, but still behind Cruz and Leppert. If he can transfer these funds to his congressional race (I am not a lawyer, but my impression is that he can), then he’ll go into his match with fellow Senate race dropout Roger Williams with a substantial warchest.
  • Dissension in the Ranks of the SDEC

    Monday, July 18th, 2011

    I went poking around the web to see if there were any signs that Ricardo Sanchez was actually assembling something resembling a serious campaign when I stumbled across some intriguing comments from one J. R. Behrman, a member of the State Democratic Executive Committee of the Texas Democratic Party. It’s always good to keep tabs on the other side, especially when there’s dissension in their ranks, and judging by these comments (pulled from down in the page), Mr. Behrman is not a happy camper:

    The “Texas right of center electorate” is a construct of pimp-consultants simultaneously raising money while picking “winners” — meaning losers — namely, candidates, races, and — surprise — themselves as campaign consultants. With a few up and coming sycophants they can spend the money on “likely voter” campaigns featuring a decades-old mix of racially segmented media messages, “GOTV”, and proprietary technologies they get a portion of the license fee from.

    These packaged candidate/campaign deals are peddled to the “Big Money Boys”. But, this has been so unsuccessful for so long, one wonders if it can be done any longer.

    The AFL-CIO has been fleeced and given up on this.

    There is, maybe, one rich, bored, living lawyer left dumping big bucks into a media campaign of his own design that does not appear to involve any actual candidates.

    Meanwhile, the GOP has an actually proficient small-donor campaign fund-raising and mobilization machine based on a common technology — the same one Obama brought to Texas in 2008 but has since folded or withdrawn.

    The GOP technology is nothing the same-old, same-old SDEC would even consider a competitive alternative to. They have a really great licensing deal on the VAN. The SDEC is an awards banquet for sycophants, not a strategic or technology forum.

    So, Rick Sanchez can re-run the Wes Clark nomination campaign and defeat his likely opponent … nobody.

    But, how does he win the general election Bill White just lost persuasively and expensively, …

    If the party can not raise enough money to keep the doors open on the Little Office, …

    If the Big Donors are tapped-out, dead, or, simply, looking at zero return on their “investments”, …

    If the Obama campaign uses its operation in Texas to harvest volunteers and money for battleground states, and …

    If the party establishment itself has nothing to stand on or run on but “ain’t it awful hand-wringing and grand-standing by districted incumbents with no race to run, and 70’s-vintage “celebrate diversity” identity politics masking zero-sum patronage among street-level race-hustlers?

    And more, further down:

    The SDEC has no plans or standards, just a mix of written and unwritten rules that are selectively enforced so as to perpetuate a patently failed party establishment in Austin — a Speaker’s Claque (with no Speaker).

    This is how the State Legislature worked “back in the day” when we dominated bi-partisan concession-tending regime in Austin that the GOP has now hijacked. Clearly, that regime is no longer bi-partisan, but we still wallow in nostalgia for it, conduct our business habitually, and cling to the “center-right electorate” theory and “likely voter” corollary, consultants, and voter file. Those all used to work. But, the world changed in 1994 and 2000. The TDP and, for that matter, the DSCC/DCCC has not yet adjusted.

    Delegate votes in the state convention — apart from ex-officio delegates — reflect the actual distribution of Democratic voters. Composition of the SDEC favors GOP voters and those in the lobby as administer the party’s McGovern-era racial quotas and patronage. This is a formula for rewarding sycophancy, not proficiency.

    So, SDEC meetings are stuffed with non-voting members, honorific resolutions, and time-wasting ritual. There is simply no time to seriously or fairly consider questions, such as the employment of Ed Martin, that are sprung on the body by the staff and protected by the Palace Guard.

    From cycle to cycle, the celebratory happy-talk results in catastrophic losses every eight years. In my tenure, the SDEC has become more defensive and apologetic rather than imaginative and critical.

    I and others on the SDEC do come forward from Senate Districts outside of Austin with lots of both actual and potential Democratic voters or loyalists and small donors.

    We bring constructive proposals that relate to increasing turnout of new and old, rural and urban, “base voters” using technologies and techniques that do not involve kick-backs and cross-subsidies to the Austin-based hangers-on and auxiliaries. But, these are quashed in committee by the Palace Guard and the hired help.

    Statewide candidates, self-funded or pimped-out to their own bundler/consultants, just ignore the state party establishment which is, indeed, so negligent as to let the LaRouch cult get on the primary ballot steal votes and time from legitimate Democrats.

    The likely-voter and center-right nonsense, is just the half-baked rationale for “keeping on, keeping on”, turning the state into a “red-state” bastion, keeping it there, but promising to “turn Texas blue” Real Soon Now without even discussing much less rectifying profound problems of party governance and finance.

    While I would no doubt disagree with Mr. Behrman about most political issues, I find his comments quite interesting for two reasons:

    1. He attacks both the corrupt (pimp-consultants, Big Donors) and insane (“70’s-vintage ‘celebrate diversity’ identity politics masking zero-sum patronage among street-level race-hustlers”) wings of the Democratic Party with equal vigor.
    2. Some quibbles aside (I think the center-right status of the Texas electorate is an objective fact), most of his criticisms strike me as dead-on. The state Democratic Party has been largely ineffectual, and its reliance on corrupt street-level hustlers to get out the vote (and commit vote fraud in the process) certainly haven’t helped it’s reputation.

    Nor is this the first time Mr. Behrman has expressed these frustrations:

    The Democratic Party establishment in Texas and Harris County are artifacts of a bi-partisan concession-tending regime that lasted statewide from 1824 to 1994 and persists on City Council to this day. This establishment lacks proficiency and purpose – now that tort reform is a done deal and they have no alternative to debt-driven fiscal austerity at every echelon of government.

    So the prospects for winning statewide, countywide, and even citywide elections in 2011-12 are not good. There have been essentially no lessons learned from victories in 2008 or losses in 2010. “Wave Election!” is an excuse, not an analysis or a plan. The same consultants will be doing the same thing with the same tools but without the benefit of an Obama primary campaign here in Texas next year.

    Apart from dismay at the effects of national, state, county, and city austerity, there will be little motivation and no money trickling down from national politics unless and until we turn things around here on the ground … dramatically. The patronage-oriented base vote will be no better than 2010 and the (2008-vintage) “new base vote” will be hard to motivate, locate, or mobilize. It is true that on the margin there is still some ‘bloc voting’ by various interest groups. But that is not the way the politics of age, ethnicity, class, and gender work in “majority-minority” counties like Harris, for one. So we are going to have to adopt Obama-type political methods and messages if we expect results like 2008.

    He seems to be seeking a “mid-left progressive populist” position between toadying up to big business/big labor/big government interests (bailed-out banks, trial lawyers, etc.) and the party’s Identity Politics brigades and their race-hustling poverty-pimp enablers. This would theoretically enable the party to grow more middle class support for its redistributive policies. I rather doubt it.

    But while I differ with Mr. Behrman’s prescribed course of treatment, I do think he has admirably identified a number of the symptoms.

    How widely spread are Mr. Behrman’s sentiments? Being very far indeed away from the center of the Texas Democratic Party, I would not venture to estimate. My guess is that the sentiments themselves are fairly widely shared, but that few are inclined toward his suggestions…