Posts Tagged ‘Wisconsin’

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Election Roundup Part 1: Just the Facts, Ma’am

Friday, November 11th, 2016

Time, finally, for something vaguely resembling a comprehensive post-election roundup.

As this keeps threatening to turn into a very long and unwieldy post, I’m going to break it up into chunks, with this installment centered on vote totals, race outcomes, and statistical facts about the election. We’ll save analysis, implications, and the saltiest examples of liberal tears for another time.

  • Assuming the current results hold, Trump flipped six states Romney lost (Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan), plus Maine’s second congressional district, which gives Trump 306 electoral votes.
  • That’s the highest electoral vote totals for a Republican since Bush41 blew out Dukakis in 1988 (426).
  • Hillary might still edge Trump in the popular vote (right now she’s up by 3/10ths of 1%).
  • Clinton lost over 5 million votes from Obama’s 2012 totals. Trump was down less than a million from Romney’s totals.
  • Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulled in over 4 million votes, triple his 2012 showing. Green Party candidate Jill Stein pulled in over 1.2 million votes, which was almost triple her 2012 showing as well.
  • Evan McMullin (or, as Ace of Spades refers to him, “Egg McMuffin”) pulled in less than half a million votes, about a third of which came from his native Utah, where he beat Johnson and Stein. He did not win any counties in Utah, though he did beat Clinton in a few.
  • 1996 was the last time West Virginia (formerly a reliable Democratic state) went for the Democratic presidential candidate. This year they went for Trump by nearly 69%, including every county in the state. Despite that, WV Democratic Senator Joe Manchin says he’s not switching to the Republican Party. Machin, 69, is up for reelection in 2018.
  • Republicans lost two seats (in Illinois and New Hampshire) but maintain control of the Senate. Louisiana will have it’s top two runoff December 9, where Republican John Kennedy will be heavily favored, likely giving Republicans a 53-47 edge.
  • Senators Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania) and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) both won reelection is historically blue states.
  • Republicans only lost six House seats, easily maintaining control. Three Dem pickups were in Florida (where Republicans flipped two sets themselves), two in Nevada, one in New Hampshire, one in Virginia, and one in New Jersey. Republicans also picked up one House seat in Nebraska. Republicans are guaranteed to retain control of Louisiana’s third congressional district (two Republicans in the runoff) and likely to retain control of the 4th as well.
  • Not a single U.S. House seat in Texas flipped parties, which means that incumbent Republican Will Hurd retained the 23rd Congressional District over Democrat Pete Gallego. CD23 is the only true swing U.S. House district in Texas these days, and Gallego had been the incumbent when Hurd ousted him in 2014.
  • Senator Tim Scott was reelected to a full term. Scott still remains the first black Senator from the South since reconstruction.
  • Republicans control the House, Senate and White House for the first time since 1928.
  • Republicans also picked up three governorships, in Missouri, Vermont and New Hampshire, giving them 33 to the Democrats 15.
  • The North Carolina Governor’s race may not be decided until November 18. If Democrat Roy Cooper’s razor thin lead over Republican incumbent Pat McCrory holds, that will be the Democrats’ only gubernatorial pickup this year.
  • “Eastern Kentucky voters rejected [Democrat] House Speaker Greg Stumbo on Tuesday as Republicans appeared poised to take control of the Kentucky House of Representatives for the first time since 1921.”
  • Democrats pick up four seats in the Texas House.
  • Texas county-by-county Presidential race results. Clinton taking Fort Bend county is a surprise to me; Romney won that by six points in 2012, and Clinton beat Trump by about that much this year.
  • Libertarians maintained automatic ballot access in Texas because their railroad commission candidate pulled in 5.3% of the vote, over the 5% threshold. The Green Party, however, did not, and will have to submit 50,000 petition signatures to make the ballot in 2018.
  • National Review (ad blocker blocker warning) notes that the “Trump won because of racism” talking point is demonstrably wrong:

    Mitt Romney won a greater percentage of the white vote than Donald Trump. Mitt took 59 percent while Trump won 58 percent. Would you believe that Trump improved the GOP’s position with black and Hispanic voters? Obama won 93 percent of the black vote. Hillary won 88 percent. Obama won 71 percent of the Latino vote. Hillary won 65 percent. Critically, millions of minority voters apparently stayed home. Trump’s total vote is likely to land somewhere between John McCain’s and Romney’s (and well short of George W. Bush’s 2004 total), while the Democrats have lost almost 10 million voters since 2008.

    And all this happened even as Democrats doubled-down on their own identity politics.

    But all this is based on exit polls. How do we know they’re any more accurate at capturing the electorate than those other faulty polls?

  • More exit poll analysis from Oren Cass. The thrust is that Trump did better among nonwhites than Romney. But when he gets down to differences of less than 2%, he’s counting angels on the heads of pins.

    • Remember all that MSM talk about Trump turning Texas into a swing state? Instead he turned Michigan and Wisconsin into swing states.

    Here’s a Tweet that encapsulates a New York Times interactive map indicating which areas of the country voted notably more Republican or more Democratic in the Presidential race than in 2012. Note the strong surge of Trump voters in the rust belt.

    As far as the senate, things don’t get any easier for Democrats in 2018:

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans, Texas | No Comments »

    Sorta Liveblogging the 2016 Election

    Tuesday, November 8th, 2016

    First results: Trump takes Indiana and Kentucky, Clinton takes Vermont.

    Trump leading the national vote.

    Trump wins West Virginia.

    Trump leads in Virginia.

    Fox calls Portman for Ohio Senate.

    Trump running ahead of Romney’s totals in KY, IN.

    Trump ahead by 10+ points in Virginia. 11% in.

    Trump ahead in Florida.

    Tim Scott wins SC senate.

    Trump up 10 points in NC.

    Fox calls SC for Trump, even though actual totals have Clinton slightly ahead. (Insert shrug emoji.)

    Kentucky Dem Speaker Stumbo going down. Last Dem Speaker in South (if you don’t count Straus).

    Trump now up by 11 in VA.

    Trump still leading national vote total.

    Oklahoma called for Jill Stein.

    Ha, just kidding. Trump.

    Clinton takes lead in FL. Still too close to call. Clinton also now ahead in NH. Not good.

    Trump still up in VA.

    Mississippi called for Trump.

    Missouri called for Trump

    Tennessee called for Trump.

    Pizza break.

    HOLY FUCK! 28 votes separate Trump and Clinton in Florida.

    Trump edges ahead in FL. Now up 8,000 votes.

    GOP takes KY house.

    Fox callas Alabama for Trump. Try to contain your shock.

    Todd Young kicks Evan Bayh’s ass in IN Sen.

    Rand Paul and Marco Rubio win their Sen races.

    NBC calls Republican maintaining control of House.

    Trump lead in Florida keeps widening. 91% of votes in.

    Trump up a full point in Florida.

    Hurd winning in TX CD23.

    Nate Silver says Senate shifts right. Interesting.

    Trump winning Texas by less than I expected.

    Trump behind in Ohio. 1/3rd of votes in.

    Could never imagine Trump winning Florida but losing Ohio, but that’s how it’s trending right now.

    Crist picks up FL House seat, alas.

    Trump still winning Florida and the popular vote.

    Fox: “Ohio. A difference of do the math.”

    Trump still leading Virginia.

    Blake Farenthold (R) crushes it.

    Trump takes lead in Ohio,

    Texas called for Trump. Much narrower than I expected.

    Trump still up in Florida.

    Trump widens lead in Ohio, takes lead in NC.

    McCain wins in AZ Sen, promises more pancakes, Matlock.

    FL: 93% in, trump lead widens.

    Debbie Whatshername Schultz on Fox now. Mute. God it was good for the GOP to have her running the DNC.

    Trump still up in Virginia with 72% of the vote in. Maybe all the felons voted for Trump!

    Trump still leads VA.

    Trump WAY up over Clinton in WI, but only 3% of the vote in.

    GOP guy on Fox: “Trump will win Ohio.”

    Local returns. Restroom break.

    Zimmerman losing ATCC? A Hillary vote surge causality?

    Trump still up in FL with 94% in.

    Trump up in VA and NC.

    Trump winning MN, but only 2% in.

    Hillary under 80% in Philadelphia?

    Trump way up in Ohio.

    NM called for Clinton.

    Tappert: “This may put the polling industry out of business.”

    NYT’s COHN: “Trump favored to win for first time.”

    Trump super narrow lead in VA.

    Slight Clinton lead in VA.

    Stupid Austin passes stupid transportation bond.

    Foxes projects Clinton to win VA.

    Women on PBS definitely gazing into an abyss.

    PBS sounds like a wake. “No one from the Clinton campaign wants to talk to us.”

    Trump up BIG in Michigan. Michael Moore may turn out to be a prophet.

    Trump still up in NH.

    RCP says Trump won Ohio.

    Seeing projections Clinton wins VA.

    Hearing Manchin (D-WV) may flip to Republican next year. His state already has.

    If Trump wins electoral vote and Clinton wins popular vote, liberal heads will never stop exploding.

    Trump up in both MI and WI.

    NYT chances of Trump winning up to 91%.

    Fox: Trump doubles Romney’s black vote total. Me: Not hard.

    Sadly, Daryl Glenn loses in Colorado.

    Fox calls NC for Trump.

    PBS calls FL for Trump.

    “Clinton staffers leaving her victory party.” Well, there’s all that shredding to do…

    NYT’s: Trump’s chances of winning < 95%

    Utah called for Trump. Take that, Egg McMuffin!

    Clinton’s campaign has gone dark. There are all those servers to destroy.

    TRUMP WINS WISCONSIN! The fat lady has started warming up…

    TRUMP WINS IOWA.

    Trump has won the Presidency.

    Trump on verge of winning NH. That’s the last nail in the coffin.

    Trump only 7,000 votes behind in Penn.

    Too busy jaw-dropping and celebrating to blog.

    “Clinton campaign staff in tears.”

    “It’s time to start talking about Trump Democrats.” After tonight, I don’t think they’re Democrats any more.

    Now both hookers and weed are legal in NV.

    Toomey pulls it out in PA Sen.

    AP called PA for Trump. Still waiting for Fox.

    NYT calls Pennsylvania for Trump. Finally, Brunhilda can give her aria.

    AP calls race for Trump.

    Shep Smith is trying to cast a sleep spell upon us.

    FINALLY! Fox calls Pennsylvania (and the Presidency) for Trump.

    Clinton called to concede the race.

    Trump making a very gracious victory speech, calling for the country to come together.

    Thanked Reince Prebius, as well he should. RNC did a fantastic job.

    Congratulations to Donald Trump for being elected the 45th President of the United States of America.

    Goodnight folks.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans | No Comments »

    LinkSwarm for October 14, 2016

    Friday, October 14th, 2016

    This year…

  • Rasmussen has Trump ahead.
  • Italy’s economy is a mile high house of cards.
  • Citigroup, parent of Citibank, had a huge role in staffing and shaping the agenda of Obama’s first term.
  • Cracked on the country/city divide fueling Trump’s rise.
  • Wisconsin Senate candidate Russ Feingold admits that he and Hillary Clinton want to disarm Americans.
  • Competitive shooter stopped Minnesota mall jihad rampage. (Hat tip: KR Training.)
  • Social Justice Warriors hate women’s magazines.
  • Peak New Hampshire.
  • Lawyers file fake lawsuits against fake plaintiffs to obtain fake judgements to take down real comments off the Internet, then pressure Google to deindex the offending article, all evidently at the behest of a “reputation management” firm. Presumably The King in Yellow is not involved…
  • Scandal claims another Andrew Cuomo advisor. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • “Liberalism has lost the loyalty of the downtrodden that once, with admittedly mixed motives, it set out to help. That’s a loss it’s unlikely to survive.”
  • Library addition: Nine William F. Buckley, Jr. non-fiction books, seven signed.

    • Shorter than usual, for Reasons.

    Have a nice weekend.

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Guns, Jihad | No Comments »

    LinkSwarm for April 11, 2016

    Monday, April 11th, 2016

    Greetings, and welcome to the week known as “Damn, I better finish my taxes.” Here’s a LinkSwarm:

  • Obama’s foreign policy genius exemplified: “In Syria, militias armed by Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA.”
  • If Republicans end up with a brokered convention, expect Ted Cruz, not Paul Ryan, to win the nomination. “[We’re] learning more and more about who those delegates are now that they’re being chosen. They’re not members of the Washington ‘establishment.’ Instead, they’re mostly grass-roots activists, and many of them want Cruz to be their next president.”
  • “Ted Cruz on Saturday clinched the support of every pledged delegate in Colorado, capturing all of the final 13 delegates who will go to the national convention in July and demonstrating his organizational strength in the all-important delegate race.”
  • Indeed, Team Trump screwed up in lots of places:

    From Thursday to Saturday, Trump suffered setbacks in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina and Indiana that raise new doubts about his campaign’s preparedness for the long slog of delegate hunting as the GOP race approaches a possible contested convention. He lost the battle on two fronts. Cruz picked up 28 pledged delegates in Colorado. In the other states, rival campaigns were able to place dozens of their own loyalists in delegate spots pledged to Trump on the first ballot. This will matter if Trump fails to win a majority of delegates on the first ballot in Cleveland, as his delegates defect once party rules allow them to choose the candidate they want to nominate.

    If Donald Trump is as smart as he keeps telling us, how is it he can’t seem to hire anyone smart enough to know how each state’s delegate selection process actually works?

  • Hillary Clinton defends Israel against Bernie Sanders. Hillary finally takes the right side in an issue debate, but what do you want to bet that it hurts her, given the naked anti-Israel/pro-Palestinian bias among the Democratic Party’s activist base?
  • Thanks to the Magic Power of Socialism™, Venezuela is where Zimbabwe was 15 years ago. (Hat tip: Instapundit.)
  • Modern liberalism is dedicated to altering language to advance their agenda, not to mention hiding their many failures.
  • Naval security under Obama looks like it’s just as good as security in the rest of the Obama Administration. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
  • America assimilates Muslims much better than Europe.
  • Gun sales soar but “per capita criminal homicides committed with firearms are at their lowest point ever recorded since the FBI began formally tracking that information in 1960.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Millionaires are fleeing France. “Polls have shown that about 50% of all French people 18-34 years old, not just the millionaires and billionaires, would leave France if they could.” Why? “Blue model rot, deeply set in across Europe, is pervasive in France.”
  • “70 Tries After Seattle Raised Its Minimum Wage, I Still Can’t Find A Job.”
  • Conservative Rebecca Bradley defeated liberal activists Joanne Kloppenburg for a seat on the Wisconsin supreme court.
  • Thanks to global warming, sea levels are rising. And by “rising” I mean “falling.”
  • Dallas trying to screw property owners yet again.
  • Several ESPN writers are predicting an Astros-Cubs World Series. And the moon became as blood…
  • “New York taxi drivers to be banned from flirting with or ejaculating on passengers.” One of these things is not like the other/One of these things just doesn’t belong…
  • “Understanding Movement In Composition Through The Work Of Akira Kurosawa.”

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    Posted in Border Control, Democrats, Elections, Foreign Policy, Global Warming, Guns, Jihad, Military | No Comments »

    Post-Wisconsin Presidential Race Update

    Wednesday, April 6th, 2016

    A few quick hits after Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, where he ended up with 48.2% of the vote, and will end up with 36 delegates:

  • Cruz takes the lead nationally in Reuters polling. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Four things to watch for denying Donald Trump the nomination. Including how close Ted Cruz can get in the delegate count.
  • How Cruz won.
  • Is Wisconsin a turning point for Cruz?
  • Trump throws a temper tantrum in press release form after losing.
  • More from Trump’s super classy supporters. And here’s a summary in classic movie form:

  • Can Trump get to 1237 delegates? Fiddle with the controls to enter your estimates. (Hat tip: Ann Althouse.)

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans | No Comments »

    Ted Cruz Wins Wisconsin

    Tuesday, April 5th, 2016

    Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin with (as of this writing) about 55% of the vote.

    Also, nationwide polls are now showing Cruz in a statistical dead heat with Donald Trump nationally.

    Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders is winning on the Democratic side with about 54% of the vote.

    Here’s a liveblog with more election tidbits. (Hat tip: Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)

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    Posted in Democrats, Elections, Republicans | No Comments »

    Presidential Race Update for April 5, 2016

    Tuesday, April 5th, 2016

    Today is Wisconsin’s turn in the primaries. Ted Cruz leads there in most recent polls, and there are signs the Donald Trump campaign is continuing to implode.

    So here are some Presidential race links:

  • “Ted Cruz’s preferred candidates won the vast majority of convention delegates available in North Dakota over the weekend, taking 18 of 25 slots in the state in another show of organizational strength over Donald Trump.”
  • Many of Trump’s own delegates are ready to flee at the first opportunity. (Hat tip: Weasel Zippers via Director Blue.)
  • And Cruz is lining up Arizona delegates willing to defect to him on a second ballot. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Five factors working against Trump securing a majority of Republican delegates. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • How demographics doom Trump.
  • Trump is an effect, not a cause.

    A majority of Trump supporters agree with the following statement: “people like me don’t have any say in what the government does.”

    Distance is decisive. The transcendent aim of the revolt of the public, everywhere around the globe, has been to smash the elites and the institutions down from the protected heights, by whatever means necessary, regardless of the consequences. So far, the US presidential elections of 2016 appear to be no exception.

    (Hat tip: Roger Kimball via Ed Driscoll at Instapundit.)

  • Has Trump brought in 14 million new voters?
  • Trump can’t destroy the Republican Party.
  • Trump: “A large blob of sheer grossness. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • The Chalkening.

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans | No Comments »

    Scott Walker Endorses Ted Cruz

    Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

    This won’t hurt Ted Cruz’s chances:

    Washington (CNN)Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker formally endorsed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz on Tuesday, saying he is “a strong new leader” and “constitutional conservative.”

    “After all these years of the Obama-Clinton failures, it’s time we elect a strong new leader and I’ve chosen to endorse Ted Cruz,” Walker told conservative radio host Charlie Sykes on Newsradio 620 WTMJ Tuesday.

    If you asked me in 2015 who I think had the best chance of winning the Republican nomination, I would have said it was Walker, given how how handily he beat the unions in the Wisconsin recall. Shows you how much I know…

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans | No Comments »

    Updated Voting Results from Yesterday

    Wednesday, March 16th, 2016

    Donald Trump won everywhere but Ohio, where John Kasich won. Ted Cruz was only .2% behind in Missouri, and less than four points in North Carolina.

    Judging from his numerous fundraising emails, Kasich seems disinclined to take his participation trophy and go home.

    A few links:

  • Rubio lost because of Rubio.
  • “It is still mathematically possible for Cruz to get beyond 1,237 delegates. He will perform well in Utah and Wisconsin and has a solid ground game…There is a way to stop Trump. But that way is rallying to Ted Cruz. That is the only option at this point.” (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Trump could still fall short in the delegate count. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • Low-information Democrats are going for Trump.

    • Now everyone is waiting to see if Rubio endorses Cruz…

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans | No Comments »

    Scott Walker Joins the 2016 Presidential Race

    Tuesday, July 14th, 2015

    Just in case you hadn’t heard, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker officially joined the 2016 Presidential race.

    I would say that Walker is the real frontrunner, no matter what some polls might indicate. Facing down unions in the Wisconsin recall election made Walker a hero among conservatives. National Democrats and unions went after Walker with everything they had and Walker built a throne out of their skulls. And the Republican establishment is more likely to acquiesce to his candidacy than that of, say, Ted Cruz.

    It’s a crowded field, but Walker will be a formidable candidate.

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    Posted in Elections, Republicans, unions | No Comments »

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