Posts Tagged ‘Republicans’

If You Bet on Republicans To Take Control of the House, Collect Your Winnings

Thursday, October 28th, 2010

Note: I don’t mean that headline metaphorically. An Irish bookie is already paying off bets for a Republican takeover of the House.

Saying there’s no way Democrats can keep control of the House, Ireland’s largest bookie on Wednesday said it has already paid off all bettors who wagered the GOP would capture the chamber.

“In our opinion this race is well and truly over with nothing short of a miracle stopping the Republicans taking down the House,” said Ken Robertson, communications manager for Paddy Power, the Irish bookmaker.

Of course, that begs the question: Just how many people in Ireland bet on U.S. election outcomes? It could very well be that the number is so small, paying them off prematurely might be more than offset by the anticipated additional business from publicity for making the announcement.

Either way, as Instapundit has repeatedly warned, “Don’t get cocky.” It’s only five days until the election, and election fatigue has already set in for many. (Hell, even I’m starting to get tired of writing about it.) Election night should provide plenty of reasons to celebrate, but only if people execute in the last five days, a period that can be surprisingly long in politics, especially if Democrats are planning an ever-popular October Surprise. Remember that at this point in 2000, Democrats hadn’t even unleashed their Bush DWI smear yet. Expect to hear that presumptive Speaker of the House John Boehner is a cross-dressing furry porn addict sometime this weekend.

(Hat tip: Michelle Malkin.)

Republicans Suck Less

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

This Frank J. Fleming piece over on Pajamas Media is too funny (and dead on) not to quote copious sections from:

So the Democrats sucked. But not just plain old, usual politician sucked, but epic levels of suck where it’s hard to find an analogue in human history that conveys the same level of suckitude. It was sheer incompetence plus arrogance — and those things do not complement each other well. We’re talking sucking that distorts time and space like a black hole.

It’s Godzilla-smashing-through-a-city level of suck — but a really patronizing Godzilla who says you’re just too stupid and hateful to see all the buildings he’s saved or created as he smashes everything apart. Or, to use Obama’s favorite analogy, you have a car stuck in ditch, so you call the mechanic, but the only tool he brings with him is a sledgehammer. And then he smashes your car to pieces and charges you $100,000 for his service. Finally, he calls you racist for complaining. Obama and the Democrats have been so awful, it’s hard for the human brain to even comprehend.

But the Democrats will counter that the Republicans also suck. And while this is true, it’s not really going to help them. As I pointed out before, both a dog incessantly barking and a zombie apocalypse are things that everyone would agree suck. Yet no one during a zombie apocalypse, while hiding out in a boarded up mall, would turn to the other survivors and say, “We don’t want to kill all the zombies; then we’d have to go back to being woken up at night by that annoying dog next door.” But this is the best argument the Democrats can come up with. “Remember how awful the Republicans and Bush were? You hated them. You don’t want to go back to that.” Yes, why would people want to go back to when 6% unemployment was considered high?

People do remember how much the Republicans suck, and they know where it tops out … and that is nowhere near as bad as the Democrats are today. Like with the barking dog, it’s annoying, but you know it’s not going to cause the collapse of civilization as we know it. Not so with the zombie apocalypse; who knows how bad that could get if left to continue? Same with the Democrats and Obama; people have never dealt with anything this horrible their entire lives, and they aren’t that curious to see how much worse it can be.

So the Republicans kinda suck, and that’s why they’re going to win huge this November. Because in the land of epic, mega, ultra, apocalyptic levels of sucking, those who kinda suck are king.

(Hat tip: Instapundit.)

117 House Races in Play?

Tuesday, October 19th, 2010

Over at NRO’s Campaign Spot, Jim Geraghty lists a whopping 117 House races in play. His list includes all of the races I highlighted as as competitive, as well as two from my list of longshots:

  • Joseph Donnelly vs. Jackie Walorski for Indiana’s second congressional district.
  • Barney Frank vs. ex-Marine Sean Bielat for Massachusetts’ Fourth Congressional District.

Republicans aren’t leading all those races, and there’s no guarantee they’ll actually win the ones they are leading, and even beyond that there’s no guarantee that if they do win, it will be outside the margin of the usual Democratic fraud.

Says Geraghty:

My current assessment is in line with the conventional wisdom: Roughly 100 seats are in play under the broader definition, and it’s hard to see Republicans winning fewer than 40 of them. The ceiling depends on how angry the country is on November 2, but it is pretty darn high . . . 60? 70? 80?

The possible peak of the wave keeps getting larger…

Here’s a Site Estimating Republicans Will Gain 57 Seats in the House

Monday, October 18th, 2010

According to Freedom’s Lighthouse. I don’t know much about them, so caveat lector.

Among the races BattleSwarm has previously covered, they show the following incumbent Democrats losing:

  • Suzanne Kosmas (FL 24)
  • Trent Van Haaften (IN 8 ) (not an incumbent, running for Brad Ellsworth’s open seat)
  • Gary McDowell (MI 1) (not an incumbent, running for Bart Stupak‘s open seat)
  • Steve Driehaus (OH 1)
  • Kathy Dahlkemper (PA 3)
  • Paul Kanjorski (PA 11)
  • Chet Edwards (TX 17)
  • Ciro Rodriguez (TX 23)

So, all eight of the vulnerable democrats I profiled here are currently down as GOP flips.

Further, Charles Wilson (OH 6) is rated as a tossup.

Again, I’m not that familiar with the source, so take this with a grain of salt, and just another data point on how high the tidal wave might reach.

It’s Good to Be the King

Monday, October 18th, 2010

The king of creating jobs, that is. “More than half of the net new jobs in the U.S. during the past 12 months were created in the Lone Star State.”

Funny what happens when you have:

  • No state income tax
  • Right to work laws
  • No out-of-control public employee unions
  • Conservative Republicans in charges of the Governor’s mansion, the House, and the Senate
  • Which have actually constrained the growth of government during boom times
  • A requirement by law to balance the budget
  • Regulations that encourage private enterprise rather than punish it
  • A healthy disdain for Political Correctness
  • A thriving high tech sector
  • Warm weather
  • Natural ports

Some might think the last three are the most important factors, but California has all those as well, and their economy is biting the moose hard.

For a more detailed breakdown of of why Texas is kicking California’s ass (and not just at football), read this Arduin, Laffer & Moore report put out by the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Notice, for example, that Texas has lower taxes in every single category except sale tax (where the two are close to even)…and California is still broke! You can’t tax your way to prosperity.

Liberal policies don’t fail because of bad luck, or because of some sinister conservative conspiracy to make them fail. Liberal policies fail because the liberal ideas behind them are wrong.

Reality, it seems, has a free market bias.

Selected House Democrats Who May Be Swamped By The Coming Tidal Wave

Monday, October 11th, 2010

So how bad are Democratic House members doing this election? According to the National Journal, pretty bad. They count 60 seats among the most competitive and another 19 very close. Of those 79 House seats in play, 72 are currently held by Democrats.

As for where Democrats are spending their money, six of the seven districts the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending money on went for Obama by more that 54%. They say that they’re trying to “nail down” relatively easy seats before moving on to harder ones, but that makes absolutely no sense; if you really want to help the marginal seats, you start helping them out first, because they need the most work. No, this smacks of triage, and suggests that the DCCC considers most districts below that line as good as gone.

There are a number of interesting races and names that should be familiar to regular BattleSwarm readers, either from being in Texas or having been mentioned here before:

  • Chet Edwards (TX 17) comes in at #7. (I would say that Edwards is the last remnant of the old Texas Blue Dogs, but I didn’t know that Henry Cueller (TX-28) was an actual member of the Blue Dog Collation, which Edwards is not.) Edwards voted against ObamaCare and Cap-and-Trade, but did vote for the Stimulus and the TARP bank bailout. District is heavily Republican; went for Bush by 68% in 2000, 70% in 2004, and 67% for McCain. His opponent is Bill Flores.
  • Suzanne Kosmas (FL 24) comes in at #9 on the list. You may remember this BattleSwarm piece on her back when she was a wavering no vote on ObamaCare; as I predicted, she was easier to flip to a Yes vote that Rep. Jason Altmire (PA 4), who I also profiled, and who stuck to his no vote. Which goes a long way toward explaining why Kosmas is likely to lose her seat, while Altmire isn’t on the list of endangered Democrats. Go figure. She also voted for the Stimulus and Cap-and-Trade. (Kosmos was first elected in 2008, so she didn’t vote on TARP.) District went for Bush in 2000 by 53%, Bush in 2004 by 55%, and McCain by 52%. Her opponent is Sandy Adams.
  • Indiana’s open 8th congressional district, held by Brad Ellsworth, who is leaving for a Senate run (which polls show he’s currently losing by 17 points), comes in at #11. The contest is between Democrat Trent Van Haaften and Republican Larry Bucshon. Ellsworth was of the theoretically Pro-Life members of the Bart Stupak bloc that rolled over for Nancy Pelosi on ObamaCare. District went for Bush by 57% in 2000, 62% in 2004, and for McCain by 51%.
  • Paul Kanjorski (PA 11) comes in at #15. Another Stupak bloc turncoat. Voted for TARP. Voted in favor of the Stimulus, but evidently decided oversight was so unimportant that he that he only attended three of the ten Pennsylvania Stimulus Oversight Board meetings. Has a reputation as a big spender: “Asking Paul Kanjorski to make sure our tax dollars are being spent wisely is like asking John Dillinger to keep an eye on the bank safe.” (IBID). Yesterday’s LinkSwarm mentioned how he earmarked $10 million for a business run by his own family. District went 54% for Gore, 53% for Kerry, and 57% for Obama. His opponent is Lou Barletta.
  • Steve Driehaus (OH 1) comes in at #16. Another Stupak-blocer who rolled over to let Nancy Pelosi rub his furry belly. In addition to ObamaCare, he voted for the Stimulus and Cap-and-Trade. (He was elected in 2008, and so didn’t vote on TARP.) District went 51% for Bush in both 2000 and 2004, but only 44% for McCain. His opponent is Steve Chabot, who held the seat for 12 years before Driehaus edged him 52%-48% in the Obama wave of 2008.
  • Kathy Dahlkemper (PA 3) comes in at #20. Yet another turncoat Supak-blocer Pelosi flipped for ObamaCare. Also voted for the Stimulus but against Cap-and-Trade. Wasn’t in Congress when TARP was voted on. District voted 51% for Bush in 2000 and 53% in 2004, and McCain edged Obama by a mere 20 votes in 2008. Her opponent is Mike Kelly.
  • Speaking of Stupak, Michigan’s open 1st congressional district comes in at #35. Realizing that his betrayal of his Pro-Life position to pass ObamaCare made him electoral toast, Stupak declined to run for reelection, leaving the battle to Democrat Gary McDowell and Republican doctor Dan Benishek. District went for Bush by 52% in 2000 and 53% in 2004, but 50% for Obama.
  • Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) is off the list of top 60 races, but shows up in the “Knocking on the Door” section. Another Stupak bloc turncoat. In addition to ObammaCare, he voted for the Stimulus, but against Cap-and-trade and TARP. His district went for Bush by 54% in 200 and 57% in 2004, but for Obama by 51%. His opponent is Francisco “Quico” Canseco. Rodriguez came to national attention recently thanks to his defensive tone when constituents asked him to defend his vote on ObamaCare:

Time permitting, I’ll try to do additional posts on each of those races, plus a few others (including some longer shots that just might pay off in a tidal wave year). But if you’re looking for places your campaign contributions might be the most effective at unseating Democrats, the challengers linked to above are certainly worthy of your consideration.

References

Williamson County Republicans Spend $5 Million on Donuts

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

Or so their filing report would lead us to believe.

Oh sure, you say it’s a typo. But just wait until they grab 100% of the police vote in November…

Report on Rep. John Carter’s Open House on August 17, 2010

Tuesday, August 24th, 2010

My congressman, Rep. John Carter (“Warlord of Mars”) of Texas House District 31 held an open house in Round Rock on Tuesday, August 17. Here’s my brief report. (I’m quoting from memory, so please forgive me if I get any quotes slightly wrong.)

This was a standing-room only crowd (my rough estimate would be 300-400 people), predominately older (not uncommon for political events), and 95% conservative (this is, after all, Williamson County). Save one liberal that shouted questions from the audience rather than waiting to use the microphone, it was also very well-behaved. (It would probably be unfair to compare Rep. Carter’s open house to those of Russ Carnahan or Claire McCaskill or even Ciro Rodriguez, all Representatives catching flack from their constituents for voting for the Obama-Pelosi agenda.) I think about two people in the Q&A session voiced approval for ObamaCare, but even those two were against cap-and-trade.

Indeed, there seemed to be overwhelming sentiment for smaller government in the room, and there were probably more hardcore libertarians than liberals. One attendee suggested the abolition of all federal departments except those (War (now Defense) and State) listed in the Constitution.

Carter, a former Williamson County judge, himself looks a bit older than his website’s official photos, and is a solid public speaker, if not a natural one.

Rep. Carter talked about how he had voted against TARP, the Stimulus, ObamaCare, Frank-Dodd, and cap-and-trade (the first four of which passed anyway). He said they had about two days to consider TARP, with the Bush Administration saying the banking system was about to collapse. He voted against it anyway, despite the pressure brought to bear for him to vote for it. “I told them I had presided over five death penalty case, three of which resulted in the death penalty being carried out, and compared to that their pressure was nothing. After that, they agreed I wasn’t going to change my mind, went away and left me alone.”

He also told us that worst effects of Obama’s policies may not have been felt yet, which is an ominous thought.

He showed off the infamous ObamaCare chart with its myriad array of boxes and new federal entities. He said he had experienced socialized medicine firsthand in The Netherlands (his wife is Dutch) and wanted no part of it.

He said that Washington was destroying small businesses. He talked about a subdivision developer in Bastrop who was making money, had sold half the lots in the subdivision, and was current on all his payments, but because of Dodd-Frank, the bank said he had 30 days to take his loan to another bank because Dodd-Frank said they had too many real estate loans in their portfolio. He said he had to take on a partner just to move the loan.

He also said that Republicans had pleaded with their Democratic colleagues not to let the Bush tax cuts expire. “Where I come from, when you pay more money, that’s a tax increase.” He also said that lower-income earners were going to be some of the hardest hit.

Come question and comments time (Carter appeared as part of the GOP’s “America Speaking Out” tour), there was the usual mixture of personal issues: one small business owner said she thought the government was trying to drive her out of business, questions about having to pay taxes on social security, a recent veteran (standing ovation) relating how he had a job offer pulled at the last minute due to a credit check, exhortations to read the constitution, etc. The usual panoply of grassroots American democracy. (At least in a Republican district. Perhaps speakers at Nancy Pelosi’s town halls exhort people to read Karl Marx or Howard Zinn.)

When it came my turn to ask a question (I was about 15th in line), I asked how, if Republicans were to recapture the majority, they would ensure they showed more fiscal restraint than the last time they were in the majority. Carter flatly admitted “We screwed up,” including himself in some votes early during his tenure when colleagues had urged him to vote for big spending bills “because we have to govern.”

I feel fairly confident that Rep. Carter has repented of the free-spending ways of the late Dennis Hastert-led Republican House, but I’m not sure his colleagues have.

I had to leave shortly after that, but I had a chance to say hi to Republican State House District 52 candidate Larry Gonzales, who I interviewed and endorsed (and have since contributed to) on the way out. I asked him how the campaign was going, and he said “Great! We’re loaded for bear.”

Republicans to Gain 100 Seats in House?

Wednesday, April 14th, 2010

Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics suggests that Democrats could be in for a bigger shellacking this November than the suffered even in 1994.

A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

He foresees a bad economy, a controversial agenda (i.e, the deep unpopularity of runway spending in general and ObamaCare in specific) and the reversal of the 2006-2008 Democratic wins in traditionally Republican districts combining for a perfect storm of voter anger directed at the Democratic party.

Also this:

Remember, Republicans don’t need to win in Massachusetts for a landslide; they could pick up seventy seats without winning a single one in a Democratic-leaning district.

Certainly it’s too early for premature celebration; six months is a long time in politics. But there’s good reason for Republicans to be optimistic…if they don’t blow it.

If Michael Steele isn’t scrambling to make sure every Democratic incumbent has at least one Republican challenger for the general election, he’s not doing his job.

Remember to Vote in the April 13 Republican Primary Runoff

Monday, April 12th, 2010

Here are poll locations for Williamson County voters.

And here’s where you can find them for Travis County.