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— Andrew Wimsatt (@ajwimsatt) September 12, 2018
Posts Tagged ‘2018 Election’
American Flag 1, Beto O’Rourke 0
Saturday, September 8th, 2018Once again, the SUPERgeniuses running the Beto O’Rourke senate campaign have found a brand new way to alienate Texas voters: asking a VFW hall to take down American flags:
Ted Cruz’s Challenger, Beto O’Rourke has made a name for himself by saying that he can think of “nothing more American” than kneeling during the National Anthem. We can now add stripping American flags from a VFW hall to things he thinks are good.
According to the Examiner, O’Rourke’s campaign had rented out a Veteran of Foreign Affairs Hall for a campaign rally in Navasota, TX, and requested that the VFW Post 4006 Commander Carl Dry take down the American flags in his building ahead of the event.
From the Navasota Examiner:
“I do not normally attend rental events, but I attended Saturday to make sure things ran smoothly,” said Dry, who noted there were only two requests he could not allow at the VFW Post. “They wanted to open the doors (to the Flight Deck Lounge) and I couldn’t allow that and they wanted to take the flags down, I didn’t only say no, I said hell no, you don’t take the flags off the wall. I can’t believe any American would ask us to do that and I don’t know why he wanted them down or what he was going to put up instead.”
If O’Rourke thinks that average Texans share the disdain his fellow leftists feel for the American flag, I suspect he’s going to find out he’s very sadly mistaken…
The Texas Senate Race and the Case of the Ever-Shrinking Poll Sample
Wednesday, August 29th, 2018Another week, another poll that shows Beto O’Rourke within striking distance of Ted Cruz. The entire sample size on the Emerson poll was only 550 registered voters. It seems that O’Rourke’s numbers go up as the size of the sample goes down.
Let’s look at the crosstabs, shall we?
First, this is among registered voters, not likely voters, as other polls have screened. That matters, because off-year elections have lower turnout than Presidential elections.
Second, did they oversample Democrats? Why yes they did, albeit not as grossly as as some previous polls. Republicans checked in at 41%, Democrats at 35%, a six point difference as opposed to the nine point difference in party identification in 2016, much less the 16 points win Cruz enjoyed over Paul Sadler in 2012, or the 20 points Greg Abbott beat Wendy Davis by in 2014.
Third, they’ve oversampled women 52.3% to 47.7% men. The last non-Presidential election poll show closer to a 51% women/49% men split.
I’m guessing that the “closeness” of the race is heavily dependent on those factors.
In other Texas senate race news:
How To Lie With Polls: Texas Senate Race Edition
Thursday, August 23rd, 2018It’s that time of year, when various polls show Texas statewide races closer than they actually are.
This time around: The Ted Cruz/Beto O’Rourke Senate Race.
Like Wendy Davis was in 2014, O’Rourke is the Texas poster-child for national Democrats. O’Rourke gets fawning profiles in places like Town and Country, which declares “Kennedyesque” (presumably with less adultery and vehicular homicide), and GQ, where former Texas Observer and Austin Chronicle writer Christopher Hooks calls the man born Robert Francis O’Rourke “authentic” and “without guile.”
A few weeks ago, a new Lyceum Poll showed O’Rourke within two points of Cruz. The first thing to check with a Lyceum Poll is how badly they skewed the sample. That didn’t take long: They sampled equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats, because evidently their samples are from 1994, the last time a top-of-the-ticket Democrat was within 10% of the vote total of the Republican.
Now this week we have a Marist poll that shows O’Rourke within four points of Cruz. I’d like to tell you what level of skewing went into the Marist poll crosstabs, only I can’t find any. If that’s the complete list of questions, they don’t appear to have asked party affiliation, so there’s no way to know just how skewed the smallish (759) sample of registered voters is.
In 2012, Ted Cruz beat Paul Sadler by 16 points. In 2014, Greg Abbott beat Wendy Davis by 20 points. Will O’Rourke put in better showings than either of those doomed Democrats? Actually yes, I think he will. He’s a much better campaigner than either, and he’s raised much more money than Sadler’s doomed “let’s lose with an old warhorse rather than an unknown” campaign.
But keep in mind that Cruz racked up that 16 point win against Sadler in a Presidential election year against serious Obama headwinds, and Sadler wasn’t out on the stumps flacking for gun control. This year, the economy is booming and the electorate is probably going to look closer to 2014. But pretending O’Rourke has a serious chance to win Texas is sucking national donations from a dozen endangered-but-less-sexy Democratic senate incumbents in red states.
Edit to add: As commenter richb58 notes down below, the crosstabs for that Marist poll are now out and, yeah, they’re garbage. Their sample is 33% Republican and 31% Democrats, a two point difference in party ID compared to the 9 point difference exit polls found in 2016, mirrored in the 9 point vicory Donald Trump enjoyed over Hillary Clinton that year.
Texas News Roundup For August 16, 2018
Thursday, August 16th, 2018Here’s a basket of Texas and local news of note:
Today, I’m highlighting another extremist Democrat in Texas, Gina Ortiz Jones, who finished first in a five-way primary, with 42% of the vote and then defeated Rick Trevino in the May runoff, to challenge Republican Rep. Will Hurd in the 23rd District.
This is one of the most competitive districts in the country, and has changed hands five times between Republicans and Democrats in the past 25 years. Hurd, a former CIA officer and the only black Republican member of Congress from Texas, won the seat in 2014 with only a 2,500-vote margin over the Democrat incumbent, and was re-elected in 2016 with a margin of only 3,000 votes. In a mid-term where Democrats are energized by anti-Trump mania, Hurd faces a tough fight, and Democrats have poured more than $1 million into the Jones campaign.
Fortunately for Republicans, however, Jones is way out of step with the values of this largely rural district, which stretches all the way from the suburbs of San Antonio in the east to El Paso in the west. The district is 55% Hispanic, and Jones has made a point of using her mother’s maiden name, with the slogan “One of Us, Fighting For Us” in her campaign.
Except she’s not Hispanic. Her mother immigrated from the Philippines and her father (who never married her mother) was a white drug addict. While she’s using “Ortiz” to play the identity-politics game with Texas voters, however, she’s using a lesbian-feminist message to solicit support nationally from Trump-haters, promising to become the “first Filipina-American and first out-lesbian to represent Texas in Congress, and she’ll be the first woman to represent her district.“ She has been endorsed by all the usual suspects of left-wing extremism, including pro-abortion groups like Planned Parenthood and Emily’s List, pro-homosexual groups like Equality PAC, Human Rights Campaign and the LGBT Victory Fund, and the anti-Israel JStreetPAC, as well as the Feminist Majority, People for the American Way and the AFL-CIO. Her agenda includes socialized medicine, taxpayer funding for abortion, gun control, amnesty for illegal aliens, and every other issue you might expect from someone who attended elite Boston University.
Flores, Gallego Head For Runoff In SD19
Tuesday, July 31st, 2018It’s a runoff to replace convicted felon Democrat Carlos Uresti in Senate District 19:
Republican Pete Flores and Democrat Pete Gallego are headed to a runoff in the special election to replace convicted former state Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio.
With 97 percent of precincts reporting Tuesday night, Flores was leading Gallego by 3 percentage points, 33 percent to 30 percent, according to unofficial returns. At 25 percent, state Rep. Roland Gutierrez of San Antonio was coming in third in the eight-way race. The five other candidates were in single digits, including Uresti’s brother, outgoing state Rep. Tomas Uresti of San Antonio.
The first-place finish by Flores, who unsuccessfully challenged Carlos Uresti in 2016, is a boon to Republicans in the Democratic-leaning district. In the home stretch of the race, he benefited from a raft of endorsements from Texas’ top elected officials including Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz.
The special election was triggered in June after Carlos Uresti was found guilty of 11 felonies, including securities fraud and money laundering, tied to his work with a now-defunct oilfield services company. He was sentenced to 12 years in prison days after he stepped down.
Special Texas Senate District 19 Election Today
Tuesday, July 31st, 2018If you live in Texas Senate District 19 (covering parts of San Antonio and much of west Texas), don’t forget to vote in today’s special election to replace resigned Democrat and convicted felon Carlos Uresti.
Two tweets on the subject:
There’s an election THIS Tuesday for a Texas Senate seat in the San Antonio area. Be sure to vote for Pete Flores. He will work to keep Texas the best state in America. @PeteFlores_TX #txlege #TXSen #SD19 https://t.co/2bbObwIOA0
— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) July 29, 2018
I am deeply honored to be endorsed by @GregAbbott_TX and look forward to working with him to pass meaningful property tax reform!
Join us: https://t.co/J5WRDjdTaI#sd19 #txlege pic.twitter.com/4DnNEYJjen
— Pete Flores (@PeteFlores_TX) July 29, 2018
Lt. Governor Dan Patrick has also endorsed Flores.
Tennessee Democratic Party Spokesman: “F*ck Reaching Out To Trump Voters”
Monday, July 30th, 2018Today’s example of Trump Derangement Syndrome harming Democratic electoral chances comes from Tennessee:
A top Tennessee Democratic Party’s communications official made disparaging comments about President Donald Trump and lashed out against a suggestion to reach out to his voters, describing them as “idiots.”
Mark Brown, a top communications official for the Tennessee Democratic Party currently working as the leading spokesperson to help Democrat Phil Bredesen win the Senate race against Republican Marsha Blackburn, has made a number over-the-top comments on social media, including calling the president “f—stik” and “Putin’s b—-,” the Washington Free Beacon revealed.
“Exactly, f— ‘reaching out’ to Trump voters. The idiots aren’t listening,” Brown wrote in one of the tweets from 2017. In other tweets he also called Trump a “f—ing moron” and “insane f—.”
Tiny little problem: “Trump won Tennessee by 26 points.”
That’s some mighty fine electioneering, Lou…
(Hat tip: Instapundit.)
If Dianne Feinstein Is Too Right Wing For Democrats…
Monday, July 16th, 2018Incumbent U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein was snubbed by the California Democratic Party’s executive board, who opted to endorse state Sen. Kevin de Leon (real name: Kevin Alexander Leon) for the seat instead. As John Fund notes, de Leon is “running on abolishing the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency, promoting national health insurance, and impeaching President Trump.” For outflanking Feinstein on her far left, he garnered “a stunning 65 percent of party activists, and Feinstein got just 7 percent.”
In practical terms this matters very little for California’s jungle election in November, since both Feinstein and de Leon’s names will be on the ballot.
Keep in mind that Feinstein is an impeccable lifetime liberal on issues, with 100% liberal ratings on everything from abortion to gun control. She’s a “moderate” only by the standards of the 2018 California loony left.
And yet that still wasn’t enough for the cadres of the California Democratic Party.
If Democratic Party activists insist on a level of far-left ideological purity that paints Dianne Feinstein as “right wing,” they’re heading for an electoral debacle that will make 2010 look like a cakewalk.