Posts Tagged ‘Larry Kudlow’

LinkSwarm For May 2, 2024

Friday, May 2nd, 2025

Trump’s first hundred days, a Ukraine mineral deal at last, Democrats choose rapists over women (again), employment numbers are up (unexpectedly!), Josh Hawley names and shames PELOSI, Reform UK wins big, Spain blacks out (and not from Sangria), a sneaky local Williamson County election tomorrow, and the return of the Worst Gun of All Time.

It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!

  • Larry Kudlow celebrates Trump47’s first 100 days in office.

    After President Trump’s first 100 days, what stands out to me is his straightforward trademark phrase — “promises made, promises kept.”

    He was elected on November 5 to transform the country in a completely different direction from the failed presidency of Joe Biden.

    And that is precisely what Mr. Trump has done.

    He is a disruptor. He is a change agent. He is fighting the entrenched elites and their institutions. He’s not afraid to use shock and awe. He is also a master dealmaker. He is also a man chockful of common sense.

    None of this is going to be easy, nor will it come without glitches. But the political reality of his first 100 days is that Mr. Trump has kept his word to the American people.

    So, 142 executive orders later, Mr. Trump has secured the border, restored safety, and is making great progress on the deportation of criminal illegal aliens.

    For every one new regulation, Mr. Trump is abolishing ten others.

    He is cutting taxes across the board to launch a blue-collar boom, while reducing prices with the production of more goods.

    He has reopened the energy spigots, and will profitably deploy America’s abundant resources.

    He is eliminating federal waste, fraud, and abuse. He is shrinking the size of the federal government.

    And he has launched a reciprocal fair-trade initiative.

    So, pulling all of this together, in his first 100 days Mr. Trump has fundamentally restored hope for faster growth and greater affordability.

    And, as tough as it may be, he is working to restore peace in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran.

    Culturally, he has stopped the Democratic woke march to DEI — diversity, equity, and inclusion.

    He has fought hard for religious freedom, an end to government censorship, and has stopped the weaponization of justice.

    Mr. Trump has gone after the elite universities for their failure to stop antisemitism.

    And, indeed, for all of Mr. Trump’s pro-growth economic initiatives, and his ‘peace through strength’ foreign policy, his determination to restore a more traditional, cultural, and spiritual country is one of his greatest accomplishments in the first 100 days.

    #Winning.

  • Finally: “U.S., Ukraine Sign Minerals Deal in Major Breakthrough for Peace Talks.”

    U.S. and Ukrainian officials have signed a long-anticipated deal that gives the U.S. access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in exchange for a promised security guarantee to protect Kyiv from future Russian aggression, signaling President Donald Trump’s commitment to ending the war.

    The deal was signed Wednesday afternoon on Trump’s 100th day in office by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, as the latter visited Washington, D.C., to finalize the details. The Treasury Department confirmed the signed deal, called the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund.

    “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term. President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine,” Bessent said in a statement. “And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

    The minerals deal grants the U.S. access to Ukraine’s natural resources, including aluminum, graphite, oil, and natural gas, according to Bloomberg. It also lays out details about the economic partnership between the U.S. and Ukraine.

    With that deal finally done, Trump finally has the excuse he needs to keep supporting Ukraine, especially if Russia refuses Trump’s demands to come to the negotiating table.

  • U.S. payroll growth totals 177,000 in April, defying expectations.” (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
  • More proof that the Democrat Party is objectively pro-rape: ‘California Dems Vote To Keep Male Sex Offenders In Female Prisons.”

    Democrats on the California Senate Public Safety Committee shot down a bill on Tuesday that would have kept male sex criminals out of female prisons.

    The committee, which includes far-Left Senator Scott Wiener, voted down a proposal from Republican Senator Shannon Grove to protect women from males who are registered sex offenders from being able to be housed in women’s prisons. The bill also would have given women privacy in sleeping arrangements and showers, meaning that they would be protected from males who have taken advantage of California’s lax laws that allow men to be placed in women’s prisons.

    “Today I am here on behalf of incarcerated women in California prisons who are dealing with the unintended consequences of allowing transgender inmates to be housed in women’s correction facilities,” Grove said at the committee hearing. “Everyone agrees that we need to keep inmates safe and provide additional protections.”

    She noted that she had received a letter from a female inmate discussing how males were being housed in her prison. The letter included a condom that had been distributed by prison staff.

    “Why is the state of California paying for condoms in women’s prisons?” Grove asked the committee.

    The only lawmaker to support the bill was Senator Kelly Seyarto, the lone Republican on the committee.

    Grove’s bill is seeking to address problems created by SB 132, a bill sponsored by Wiener that said that inmates should be housed according to their “gender identity.” Her legislation would “establish a secure facility at each women’s prison to house transgender women, in order to protect the security needs of biological women at birth in sleeping and other intimate areas” and prohibit male sex offenders from being eligible to be assigned to female prisons.

    “SB 132 created a preference for transgender individuals. If you are a woman serving in the women’s prison and a transgender self-identified check-the-box person comes in and goes, ‘I want to house with you,’ the woman in that cell has no recourse. They can’t say no because that’s considered discriminatory,” Grove told The Daily Wire on Monday.

    Grove said that she was told before the hearing that the committee planned to kill the bill. She said that the California Democrat supermajority had a “preference for predators versus victims.”

    Democrats are at war with biology, reality, and basic human decency.

  • Along the same lines, Maine Democrats have censured state Republican Rep. Laurel Libby for standing against men in women’s athletics, including stripping her right to vote on bills. Boy, Democrats sure seem unclear on this whole “democracy” thing…
  • “Trump signs order ending taxpayer funding for NPR and PBS.” Good. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
  • He also moved to revoke Harvard’s tax exempt status. Also good.
  • Dwight reports on some New York state shenanigans.

    Up until yesterday, Matthew Bruderman was the chairman of Nassau University Medical Center. A couple of weeks ago, Mr. Bruderman announced he was cooperating with the FBI and Department of Justice in an investigation. Specifically, Mr. Bruderman claims that New York state and Long Island have stolen at least $1 billion from the organization.

    Bruderman said he believes the officials’ ultimate goal was to financially strangle the public hospital, paving the way for state and local leaders to shut it down, take over the land currently owned by the public-benefit corporation that runs it and have it redeveloped for profit.

    Wednesday night, Mr. Bruderman’s house was burglarized. However, the only thing allegedly taken was…documents tied to the investigation.

    Bruderman wasn’t home at the time of the robbery and only found out after police called to inform him they had recovered a binder with his name on it in a car driven by an unidentified couple, he said.

    “I was confused because that was the binder I had on my desk when I left,” he said.

    Bruderman said he later found his backdoor pried wide open.

    The binder, he said, contained “sensitive” materials related to the ongoing federal investigation, including documents and records tied to the financial misconduct he claims to have uncovered while reviewing hospital finances and state reimbursements.

    Snip.

    At the heart of the alleged scheme is a little-known federal program called the Disproportionate Share Hospital Fund — meant to help keep afloat struggling hospitals such as NUMC, which treat large numbers of low-income patients on Medicaid and Medicare.

    Under the program, the federal government agrees to give hospitals tens of millions of dollars in funding as long as their state matches the investment.

    According to [Bruderman’s] review of internal financial records, previous hospital leadership allegedly “borrowed” what was supposed to be the state’s matching share from an offshore account tied to a Cayman Islands trust, originally set up to cover the medical center’s legal bills.

    That money would be temporarily transferred into the hospital’s general fund just long enough to fool the feds into thinking New York had paid its share — unlocking the federal portion of the funding, he claimed.

    But once the federal funds cleared, the state’s contribution would allegedly be moved right back offshore.

    That would mean those matching funds vanished into the shadows in a conspiracy that could’ve included top officials.

    Seems plausible to me. Oh, also: “Mr. Bruderman was fired on Thursday.”

  • Blue state governance in action: “Washington state now gives $120,000 ‘forgivable loans’ for new homebuyers. But only if they’re not white.”

    As part of the covenant homeownership program, the department shall contract with the commission to design, develop, implement and evaluate one or more special purpose credit programs to reduce racial disparities in ownership in the state by providing down payment and closing cost assistance… The contract must authorize the commission to use up to one percent of the contract to provide targeted education, homeownership counseling, and outreach about special purpose credit programs created under this section to black, indigenous, and people of color and other historically marginalized communities in Washington state.

    Forgivable means they’re giving your tax dollars to other people to buy a home based on their skin color. I think this violates all sorts of civil rights and equal protection causes, and Pam Bondi’s DOJ should sue.

  • “Sen. Josh Hawley Introduces PELOSI Act to Stop Insider Trading.”

    Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) has reintroduced the “Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments” (PELOSI) Act that would prohibit members of Congress and their families from trading stocks while in office.

    The name of the act is a direct nod in the direction of 20 term Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) whose net worth has soared from $160,000 when she was first elected in 1987 to more than $140 million in 2024.

  • 12 of 100 ‘Worst of the Worst’ Criminal Illegal Aliens Arrested by Texas ICE.”

    A dozen of the White House’s (WH) newly-published list of 100 of “the worst of the worst criminal illegal immigrants” arrested since President Donald Trump took office in January were apprehended by Texas branches of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

    In a news release titled “In the First 100 Days, the Trump Administration Has Taken Killers Rapists Off Our Streets,” images of the 100 detainees were listed online in chronological order by the date of their arrests — as well as displayed on the White House lawn — prior to a press conference held by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Border Czar Tom Homan.

    Six of the illegal immigrants included in the “worst of the worst” list were arrested by Houston ICE authorities, five by Dallas ICE, and one by Austin ICE.

    One of the arrests made by Houston ICE was of a 70-year-old Indian national, Raju Varughese Vayechaparampil, convicted of “aggravated sexual assault of a child” in Harris County. With a similar conviction also in Harris County for “indecency with child sexual contact,” Che Xol Norberto was arrested on March 18. Osvaldo Diaz, a Cuban national, was arrested by the same ICE branch for convictions of “Trespassing and Sexual Assault Child/Battery Child” while in Florida.

    Another arrest made by ICE Houston was a 64-year-old citizen of Honduras, Eduardo Garcia-Cortez, convicted of murder in California.

    “God bless the men and women of ICE who strap a gun to their hip every day … To not only secure our border and protect our national security but … they’re removing public safety threats and national security threats every day,” Homan said during the presser.

    “While you’re all sleeping, at two or three in the morning, there are men and women out there, enforcing the law, making this country safe again. And we’re going to keep doing that, full speed ahead,” he addressed the WH press pool.

    ICE Austin’s arrest was of Humberto Ruiz-Zapata, who has convictions of murder and Driving While Intoxicated. He is a citizen of Mexico, with a prior “final removal date” of May 12, 2017.

    ICE Dallas arrested Tay Myint, a citizen of Burma, on March 3. Myint was sentenced to prison for 12 years due to “aggravated sexual assault of a child” in the City of Cactus.

  • Check out this “Denver Dad” deported by ICE.

  • The Trump Administration is crowing about Mercedes and several other car manufacturers announcing plans to shift manufacturing to the U.S..
  • “6 Days After Celebrating ‘100% Renewable Power’, Spain Blames “Rare Atmospheric Phenomenon” For Nation’s Largest Blackout In History.

    As Michael Shellenberger writes at PUBLIC, this wasn’t just a Spanish blackout. It shook the entire European grid.

    …none of this should have been a surprise. The underlying physics had been understood for years, and the specific vulnerabilities had been spelled out repeatedly in technical warnings that policymakers ignored.

    As countries replaced heavy, spinning plants with lightweight, inverter-based generation, the grid became faster, lighter, and far more sensitive to disruptions. That basic physical reality was spelled out in public warnings as far back as 2017.

    Although political leaders promised that renewable energy would provide stable, affordable power, in practice, Spain grew more reliant on the remaining nuclear and natural gas plants to sustain inertia — even as the government pushes them to close.

    Despite all these warnings, political and regulatory energy in Europe remained focused on accelerating renewable deployment, not upgrading the grid’s basic stability. In Spain, solar generation continued to climb rapidly through 2023 and early 2024.

    Coal plants closed. Nuclear units retired.

    On many spring days by 2025, Spain’s midday solar generation exceeded its total afternoon demand, leading to frequent negative electricity prices.

    The system was being pushed to the limit.

    And today, at 12:35 pm, it broke.

    Spain’s blackout wasn’t just a technical failure. It was a political and strategic failure.

    Unless Spain rapidly invests in synthetic inertia, maintains and expands its nuclear fleet, or adds some other new form of heavy rotating generation, the risk of future blackouts will only grow worse.

  • Nigel Farage’s Reform Party racked up big gains in UK local elections.
    It has won over 630 council seats from around 1,500 declared so far, with results from a further 100 or so still to come in. Reform has seized control of six authorities from the Conservatives after elections on Thursday, including Tory heartlands such as Kent and Staffordshire. The party has also won control of Doncaster council from Labour, and taken control in Durham, where Labour was the largest party.

  • At least the UK isn’t trying to ban a suddenly popular, outsider party. Unlike Germany. ” Germany’s Intel Agency Designates AfD Party as ‘Extremist,’ Paves Way for Possible Ban. AfD officials made “xenophobic, anti-minority, Islamophobic and anti-Muslim statements,” spy agency cites as reason for the ‘extremist’ designation.” Eveidently the powers that be in Germany feel that notcing the baleful effects of unlimited, unassimilated Muslim immigration is “extremism.”

    Germany has designated the country’s leading opposition party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), as ‘extremist,’ paving the way for a possible ban. The decision to classify the party was taken by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency Verfassungschutz, which operates under the country’s Interior Ministry.

    “Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has designated the Alternative for Germany, the country’s second-largest political party, as a right-wing extremist group, a controversial step that could lead to the organisation being banned altogether,” the Belgian news website Euroactiv reported.

    Good thing Germany banning political parties has never had any negative effects in the past…

  • California’s government in action:

    Palmdale to Gilroy is about 300 miles. In 20 years. Or about 15 miles of track a year. Or, counting 260 work days a year, that’s an astonishing .0587 miles of track a day, or a whopping 300 feet a day. By the way, the 1,911 mile transcontinental railroad was built in six years, largely by hand. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)

  • You know the Wisconsin judge arrested for helping an illegal alien evade deportation? The Wisconsin Supreme Court has suspended them.
  • “USDA Secures Water Delivery Agreement With Mexico for Texas Farmers. Mexico has failed to meet the demands of a water treaty with the U.S. for the past few years.”
  • Not good news: The Texas House approved Dade Phelan’s stupid anti-meme bill. Hopefully this unconstituional idiocy dies in the senate.
  • This was unexpected: “Donald Trump Endorses Speaker Dustin Burrows, All Pro-School Choice Texas House Republicans
    The endorsement was relayed by Abbott in a closed-door meeting on Tuesday.”

    President Donald Trump has endorsed Speaker Dustin Burrows (R-Lubbock) and every House Republican who voted for education savings account legislation earlier this month, according to Gov. Greg Abbott.

    Abbott relayed the news to a meeting of House Republicans on Tuesday morning before the chamber gaveled in for the day’s business, The Texan reported.

    The endorsement goes to the 86 House Republicans who voted for Senate Bill (SB) 2 on April 16. It comes for the 2026 midterms, and for Burrows himself, it’s also an endorsement for re-election as speaker. Trump told the caucus the morning of April 16 in a closed-door meeting that he would endorse them if they voted for SB 2. All but two Republicans, former Speaker Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont) and state Rep. Gary VanDeaver (R-New Boston), voted for it.

    Passing school choice was indeed an accomplishment, but Burrows is still the latest in the Straus-Bonnin-Phelan cabal who have kept Democrats in a power-sharing agreement and thwarted conservative priorities for over a decade. burrows himself has presided over a House that has slow-walked conservative bills long after they sailed through the senate. This may be case of President Trump seeing things at a very high level and not being aware of the details. And speaking of Republican dissatisfaction with the Burrows Speakership…

  • “Conservative Lawmakers Warn Texas House Is Running Out of Time To Pass GOP Priorities.

    With just over a month remaining in the 2025 legislative session, a group of conservative Texas House members gathered for a press conference to issue a stark warning to their leadership: time is almost up to deliver on Republican priorities.

    “Today is day 107 of our 140-day legislative session,” said State Rep. Tony Tinderholt (R–Arlington). “In 12 days, every House bill that is going to pass must be reported by its committee. The clock is ticking, and our Republican voters are looking for the Republican majority they elected to the Texas House to deliver.”

    Immigration and Border Security

    State Rep. Mike Olcott (R–Aledo) said border security remains the number one priority for both the Texas GOP and voters across the state. He outlined four key policy targets: mandatory use of E-Verify, ending in-state tuition for illegal aliens, requiring local law enforcement cooperation with ICE, and addressing Colony Ridge.

    On E-Verify, Olcott noted that “Senate Bill 324 was approved on second reading just yesterday, and we anticipate it will pass over to the House this week.” But in the House, he warned, progress has been sluggish.

    “So far in the Texas House, the only legislation that’s been heard in committee on E-Verify is House Bill 323 … which only requires E-Verify for new local government employees, which is noble, but does not come close to turning off the employment magnet driving illegal immigration into this state.”

    Snip.

    Banning Social Transitioning of Minors

    State Rep. Steve Toth (R–Conroe) focused on protecting children from social transitioning in schools. He said that while Texas banned gender mutilation surgeries in the last session, the House still hasn’t acted on legislation to prevent social transitioning.

    “The good news is that we now have a great bill, House Bill 2258, to protect these kids,” Toth said. “Even better news is, it’s on its way to the governor’s desk … Bad news is, it’s not the governor of Texas. It’s the governor of Arkansas.”

    Despite support from some members in the State Affairs Committee, the bill remains stuck.

    “Chairman King won’t give it a hearing,” Toth said. “Texans will not forgive our massive Republican majority if we fail to protect children from groomers.”

  • Former Abilene Preschool Teacher Sentenced to 30 Years for Producing Child Porn. Mark Eichorn admitted to paying two boys to produce child sexual abuse material.”
  • “The female Army [helicopter] pilot who crashed into the American Airlines jet ignored warnings from her male co-pilot.”
  • Polygon lays off almost the entire staff following a sale.

  • Williamson County has local elections tomorrow. I’m not in a locale that’s having an election, but Michelle Evans of the Wilco GOP wrote to say they’re endorsing Mike Snyder for Hutto Mayor, Shannon Quicksall for Taylor City Council District 4, Cyndi Hauser for Liberty Hill ISD Trustee Place 7 and Ben Butler for Georgetown City Council District 3.
  • Bad news for Floridians: Alligators learn to ring doorbells. (Hat tip: 357 Magnum.)
  • BeardMeatsFood meets his nemesis: Bagels.
  • Critical Drinker thought that Thunderbolts would be merely mediocre, but found it “surprisingly shit.”
  • Brandon Herrera fires the worst gun of all time: The Zip 22. (Previously.)
  • And speaking of Things that Are The Worst, here’s some YouTube bad movie reviewers enduring the pain that is After Last Season. (Previously.)
  • “Bad Timing: Kilmar Abrego Garcia Honored With MS-13 ‘Employee Of The Month’ Award.”
  • Shedeur Sanders Drafted By McDonald’s In 3rd Round.”
  • “Player Drafted By Cleveland Browns Decides To Just Retire Instead.”
  • “Man From Pennsylvania Under Impression He Has Eaten Mexican Food.”
  • I laughed:

    (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)

  • I’m still between jobs. Feel free to hit the tip jar if you’re so inclined.





    Secrets Of The Trump Ground Game

    Saturday, November 16th, 2024

    Here’s an interesting clip of Megyn Kelly interviewing Ashley Hayek about Trump’s ground game operation.

  • Ashley Hayek: “We are the sister organization to the America First Policy Institute, which is run by Brooke Rollins and Linda McMahon and Larry Kudlow and many of the other former Trump Administration officials, and we were launched in November of 2021. And we really were focused on a lot of state policies. So working in target states, advancing policy at the state level advancing Trump America First policies at the state level.”
  • AH: “We started talking to different organizations. We started looking at how we can grow with Hispanic voters and women voters and black Americans and parents.”
  • AH: “I worked on the Trump 2020 campaign. I was the coalition’s director. We had over 45 different coalitions. We had 650 advisory board members, and I knew the inroads that President Trump and his message could make. So to be able to continue that mission was absolutely critical.”
  • AH: “Lee Zeldin is on the board of America First Works. He was really a key, integral part of this, given that he ran for governor and got almost 50% of the vote in a state [New York] that had only 23% Republican registration.”
  • AH: “We had a meeting in January of 2024…there was only seven groups that had met, it was a pretty small group, and from that meeting we realized this has to be so much bigger. You look at the data, you look at the numbers, this is going to take all hands on deck. So there was about 50 organizations that met on April 3rd at the Willard Hotel, and we had a briefing from Kellyanne Conway on polling.”
  • AH: “One of the biggest gaps that we saw at American First Works was a ground game. And that was when we realized this was our opportunity to step up and help.”
  • Some thought targeting low propensity voters was a risky bet.
  • AH: “In 2016, Hillary Clinton said you know husbands told their wives how to vote. Well now we need to tell moms: You need to tell your husband to go vote, and that’s exactly what happened.”
  • AH: “Leading up to the election, the weekend before, the media was completely gaslighting conservatives and the public, saying that Harris had historic support from women. There was, at that point in the battleground states, 112,000 more Republican women women that had already voted and 500,000 no and low Democrat women that had not voted yet. That’s a 600,000 vote swing not in favor of Harris.”
  • AH: “She had a massive a massive disadvantage amongst women, and we saw that play out on election day.”
  • AH: “You can’t say what is a woman, you can’t force men into women’s bathrooms, you can’t make women feel unsafe and have illegal aliens kill young girls on a jog at her university and think women are going to show up for you.”
  • They didn’t change the message, but they did change who was delivering the message. AH: “We had the Frederick Douglas Foundation that reached out to Black Americans. We had 20 Arabic door knockers in Dearborn. These young men knocked on tens of thousands of doors in Dearborn, and I believe they’re part of the reason that Dearborn flipped was because they were taking the Trump policies and delivering it to their actual community.”
  • AH: “We sent text messages from Riley Gaines. We sent videos with Hunter Nation, another C4 organization of Ted Nugent to hunters and Second amendment people, so you had to have the right message, but overall the message was the same.”
  • Megyn Kelly: “My understanding is it took an average of about three text messages to these low propensity voters to convert them. I guess you got about 40% of the ones you targeted to the polls. So it was two texts on messages, and then the third text on ‘let’s go.'”
  • AH: “The cool thing about the text messaging program was we had a team of 50 volunteers who would actually reply to the text messages. So if you got a text message from Riley Gaines, for example, and you replied back and, I’ll be honest, sometimes they were just like ‘f you,’ we would say ‘Oh, I’m so sorry that we bothered you, but we just wanted to make sure you had your polling place.’ And they were blown away that there was someone on the other end that was actually reading the text messages, and from there we could have a conversation.”
  • AH: “The day after the election, we started sending text messages out again to every low and no propensity voter who’s Republican, Democrat and independent, saying ‘Welcome to the American First Movement. What do you want to see on day one of a new administration?’ Because now we’ve built these relationships, we have to expand our base.”
  • AH: “We went up with black Americans, Hispanic Americans women youth. This is our opportunity to make sure that people feel heard, and that we connect them with these policies and make this the most successful first 100 days of any Administration.”
  • The MAGA brand, far from being toxic, is now cool among young voters.
  • AH: “I have four daughters and I have one boy, and this election to me, I think like a lot of moms, was personal.”
  • This election seemed personal for a lot of people democrats thought they could safely ignore or bully into submission.

    21% Growth In Q3?

    Wednesday, May 27th, 2020

    At least some economists think we’re in for a V-shaped recession. And naturally, Democrats are furious:

    In early April, Jason Furman, a top economist in the Obama administration and now a professor at Harvard, was speaking via Zoom to a large bipartisan group of top officials from both parties. The economy had just been shut down, unemployment was spiking, and some policymakers were predicting an era worse than the Great Depression. The economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection.

    Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.

    “We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” he said.

    The former cabinet secretaries and Federal Reserve chairs in the Zoom boxes were confused, though some of the Republicans may have been newly relieved and some of the Democrats suddenly concerned.

    “Everyone looked puzzled and thought I had misspoken,” Furman said in an interview. Instead of forecasting a prolonged depression-level economic catastrophe, Furman laid out a detailed case for why the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and GDP growth ever.

    Since the Zoom call, Furman has been making the same case to anyone who will listen, especially the close-knit network of Democratic wonks who have traversed the Clinton and Obama administrations together, including top members of the Biden campaign.

    Snip.

    The Covid-19 recession started with a sudden shuttering of many businesses, a nationwide decline in consumption, and massive increase in unemployment. But starting around April 15, when economic reopening started to spread but the overall numbers still looked grim, Furman noticed some data that pointed to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or industry-wide catastrophe like the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

    Consumption and hiring started to tick up “in gross terms, not in net terms,” Furman said, describing the phenomenon as a “partial rebound.” The bounce back “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”

    Furman’s argument is not that different from the one made by White House economic advisers and Trump, who have predicted an explosive third quarter, and senior adviser Jared Kushner, who said in late April that “the hope is that by July the country’s really rocking again.” White House officials were thrilled to hear that some of their views have been endorsed by prominent Democrats.

    “I totally agree,” Larry Kudlow, the head of the White House National Economic Council, replied in a text message when asked about Furman’s analysis. “Q3 may be the single best GDP quarter since regular data. 2nd half super big growth, transitioning to 4% or more in 2021.” He called Furman, who he said he knows well, “usually a straight shooter. Hats off to him.”

    “I have been saying that on TV as well,” said Kevin Hassett, a top Trump economic adviser, who pointed to a Congressional Budget Office analysis predicting a 21.5 percent annualized growth rate in the third quarter. “If CBO is correct we will see the strongest quarter in history after the weakest in Q2.”

    As a general rule, it’s best not to punch yourself in the nads, but if you do, it’s far better to get up, shake it off and keep walking than it is to lie weeping on the sidewalk. The American economy was going gangbusters before The Great Wuhan Recession, and if Democratic governor’s don’t try to keep obviously futile lockdowns in place in order to tank the economy, there’s no reason* it can’t start to do better again in the summer and fall.

    That, of course, is precisely what Democrats fear.

    The former Obama White House official said, “Even today when we are at over 20 million unemployed Trump gets high marks on the economy, so I can’t imagine what it looks like when things go in the other direction. I don’t think this is a challenge for the Biden campaign. This is the challenge for the Biden campaign. If they can’t figure this out they should all just go home.”

    As Byron York noted, Democrats fear nothing so much as economic growth.

    *OK, there is one reason: A crushing debt load that neither political party seems willing to address. On the other hand, we’ve been fearing the effects of excessive government debt for quite some time now. The Gods of the Copybook Heading can’t be put off forever, but with Treasury 30 year yields under 1.5%, there’s no sign that our government’s bipartisan spending spree has (yet) dulled the world’s appetite for American debt.