I was watching this Dave Rubin clip of Bill Maher talking about why capitalism is superior to socialism. All of which is true, but he got something mostly wrong that I want to talk about, including the interesting truth he didn’t quite elucidate.
Here’s the quote I wanted to zero in on: “In 1990, Venezuela was wealthier than Poland. But then Poland, finally free of Soviet style economics, went all in on capitalism. And now their economy is as big as Japan and people there have high wages, low inflation, cars, vacations, homes. Meanwhile, Venezuela traded capitalism for Hugo Chavez’s socialism for the 21st century, which turned out to be like socialism in the last century or any century, a mess. It turned one of Latin America’s richest countries into one of its poorest.”
Emphasis added. And everything else Maher said is correct. But Poland does not have an economy as big as Japan.
According to Statista, the size of Japan’s 2025 economy is $4.186 trillion, while that of Poland is $979 billion. In terms of sheer size, Poland’s economy isn’t nearly as big as Japan’s, mainly because Japan has roughly three times Poland’s population.
I think what Maher meant to say is that Poland’s standard of living, as measured by per capita GDP, is now on par with Japan. Here’s a piece from National Review:
2026 — the year Poland’s GDP per capita is projected to surpass Japan’s, according to data from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Poland, a Soviet-dominated communist state until 1989, is expected by next year to have higher economic output per person than Japan. For perspective, according to the World Bank (all of these numbers are adjusted for inflation and purchasing power between countries), Poland’s GDP per capita was $12,810 in 1990. That was roughly the same as Brazil’s and over $4,000 behind Mexico’s. Japan’s was almost three times higher, at $35,306. In 2023, the most recent year with available data, Japan’s was $45,949 and Poland’s was less than $2,500 behind, at $43,585. A gap of over $30,000 per person, gone in one generation. According to the IMF, Japan’s economy slightly contracted in 2024, and projected growth is around 1 percent in 2025 and 2026. Poland grew at nearly 3 percent in 2024, and projected growth is greater than 3 percent in 2025 and 2026. Why have you heard little about this decades-long and ongoing economic success story? Probably because it wasn’t the result of industrial policy or some other government plan. Under the guidance of economist Leszek Balcerowicz, Poland went all in on free markets during its transition to democracy. It has averaged annual GDP growth of about 4 percent per year since 1990, blowing right past the “middle-income trap” and joining the ranks of the great developed economies such as Japan. As late as the early 1990s, it was still fashionable to believe that Japan was going to inherit the earth as a result of its industrial policy. Imagine explaining to someone then that in your lifetime the average Pole would become wealthier than the average Japanese. Be skeptical of industrial policies, and never underestimate the power of markets.
Other figures show Japan a bit farther ahead, but Poland’s per capita GDP is clearly now in the same neighborhood as Japan’s, thanks to decades of capitalist growth in Poland, and dropping population and ineffective Keynesian stimulus (AKA “Abenomics”) in Japan.
Although Habitual Linecrosser likes to call Poland “Little European Texas,” economically it’s closer to the state of Georgia, while Texas’ economy is closer in size to that of Italy (the eighth largest economy in the world).
So Maher’s statistic was wrong, but his implication was correct: By abandoning communism for capitalism, Poland has made remarkable strides, and is now a modern, wealthy, productive nation.