Remember Trump’s ominous warnings about what would happen if Putin wouldn’t play ball? Shortly after Trump and other NATO allies reportedly lifted long-range strike restrictions on supplied weapons, Ukraine carried out a massive drone attack against multiple Russian airbases that reportedly took out 40 Russian aircraft, most of which were bombers.
Ukraine’s secret service (SBU) has claimed responsibility for a major drone strike on multiple Russian airfields overnight, saying it has damaged or destroyed more than 40 military aircraft used to bomb Ukrainian cities.
The SBU said “Operation Spiderweb” — described as one of the largest and most ambitious of the war — specifically targeted long-range bombers believed to be responsible for regular missile strikes on civilian areas.
The aircraft hit reportedly includes the A-50 radar surveillance plane, as well as Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers — key to Russia’s air assault operations.
The A-50 is Russia’s answer to AWACS, and taking out this one is huge, as it was reportedly the last one Russia had flying.
Ukrainian officials claim the Russian military has suffered damage worth more than $2 billion (£1.4 billion) as a result of the strikes. “Russian airfields are burning,” they said.
It follows earlier Ukrainian statements that their drones had struck Belaya airbase in Irkutsk, deep inside Siberia, and Olenya airbase near Murmansk in the north-west. Footage released by the SBU appeared to show plumes of smoke and explosions around parked aircraft.
Suchomimus has a video up on the strike:
“40 Russian aircraft, mainly bombers, have been destroyed in one fell swoop.”
“I’m going to say this is the biggest and best strike of the war, maybe one of the biggest and best, Maybe one of the biggest and best military operations of all time.”
40 is a preliminary number and may go up.
“It’s mainly bombers, but also some transporters hit.”
It targeted “Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, which Russia uses to carry out long range missile attacks hitting Ukrainian cities constantly.”
“Ukrainian FPV drones were hidden in false cargo containers launched near the Russian airfields, and pretty much swarm them, and caught Russia with its keks down.” Keks are northern UK slang for pants.
“So Ukraine somehow managed to get UAVs into cargo containers on lorries, transported them near the Russian air bases, and launched them, on mass, to swarm the bases before the bombers could take off.”
They hit Olenya base in “Russia’s north near Finland, over 1,700km to the border with Ukraine.”
They also hit a Russian submarine base in Severomorsk, Murmansk Oblast, in the same general area.
“The 222M [is] a big one. Russia has just 56 in service, and the type is not under production anymore. It’s also possible that not all of these 56 are airworthy. We don’t have total numbers yet, but we have to assume, since bases operating these are hit, the significant number of the 222 M fleet is now gone.”
Tu-95: “47 of these were in service, and again, it isn’t under production anymore, so they can’t be replaced, and we saw some burning, so a big chunk of these are, again, gone.”
Tu-160 (AKA Russia’s B1): “10 of these are in service, but 40 on order so these are still under production, and possibly can be replaced. But still, the loss of these has to sting.” Wikipedia has a higher number of 32 production planes, though that number is outsourced. Supposedly four were manufactured in 2023, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the actual number was zero due lack of advanced avionics parts.
“Russia’s going to struggle to recover from this, losing 40 plus aircraft in one day, including many that can’t be replaced.”
The cost-benefit ratio of Vald’s Big Adventure continues to shift heavily against Russia. In addition to having Finland and Sweden join NATO and having up to one million dead, Russia has now lost almost half it’s operational strategic bomber fleet.
Two videos on increasing Russian logistics difficulties in the Russo-Ukrainian War. First up: A video that suggests Ukraine has switched from a territory recapture strategy to an attrition strategy.
“Russia is burning whether it’s oil terminals on the Baltic and the Black Sea, factories in far-flung Siberia, or military bases in Crimea, it seems almost every day something bursts into flames in Putin’s backyard. And Ukraine is thought to be the one behind it.” It’s an open question whether structure hits in places like Siberia are Ukrainian “werewolf” teams operating behind enemy lines, or native anti-Putin/anti-war (or even anti-Russian) partisans, but the effect seems the same: Russia now has to worry about attacks to its military, transport, energy, and manufacturing infrastructure far from the frontlines in Ukraine.
Zelensky warned Putin that if Russia attacked Ukrainian cities with indiscriminate missile attacks again, Ukraine would hit back. When it did, “Ukraine struck back a fire at the electrical substation outside Moscow, plunged three districts of the capital into darkness. Water pipes also burst, leaving people freezing in their homes. The plague of accidents soon spread to the cities of Omsk and Novosibirsk, deep in Siberia, which were left without heating as temperatures fell below -2.” Actually, Omsk and Novosibirsk aren’t “deep” in Siberia, because the place is so vast there another five time zones east of there.
“Soon after attacks began on critical infrastructure, including oil refineries upon which Putin’s economy relies. To date, three refineries have been blown up or set on fire, including two which were hit by long-range Ukrainian drones. One of those the Ust-Luga oil refinery near St. Petersburg, is almost 600 miles from Ukraine.”
“Railways and factories have also been blown up or burned down at the same time the Ukrainians have stepped up their campaign against Crimea.” Naval successes we’ve covered here already skipped.
At this point the video argues that Ukraine’s strategy was to liberate Ukrainian territory, no matter the strategic value. I don’t think that was the case.
Following the “failure” of the summer offensive (I would say “limited gains”), “Ukraine is digging in and refocusing liberation of territory is no longer the main goal hitting Russia where it hurts most.”
“Ukraine knows that victory in a long war depends on two things above all else: The will of people to keep fighting, and the ability of the country to provide weapons for them to fight with, and that’s where these drone missile and sabotage attacks come in.”
It then argues (as many others have) that Crimea is Putin’s main weakness, and that losing it will cripple his prestige and ability to stay in power and continue the war.
I think there has been a shift in Ukrainian strategy, but that shift has mainly been driven by the development and availability of longer-ranged weapons Ukraine lacked earlier in the war, combined with the effects of a long-term campaign to degrade Russia air power, naval assets and SAM systems, opening up avenues for longer range strikes. Ukraine focused on attacking Russia’s logistics systems right after the Battle of Kiev was won, but now they have the capability to hit much deeper into Russia’s logistics infrastructure.
Actually, I’m surprised there haven’t been any reported attacks on the Trans-Siberian Railway, given what a long, slender link that is. A few medium-to-long range drone teams inserted into northern Kazakhstan or Mongolia could wreck real havoc on trains, lines, bridges, etc.
Next, a video from Kanal 13 (very much a pro-Ukrainian source) suggests that the war and sanctions are cratering Russia’s military industrial complex.
“The Russian military industrial complex is being destroyed because of the war against Ukraine.”
Dimitri Fidive, CEO of the Muram Machine Building Plant, wrote in an email intercepted by the activists, that inflation and the shortcomings of Russia’s bureaucratic approach prevents plants that form the country’s military industrial complex from fulfilling government orders.”
“Plants are forced to sell their goods at prices set in 2019, but are at the same time expected to purchase details at market prices and in advance.”
“The money received from the government was not enough to cover the interest on the credit that his firm would need to take out to pay its suppliers.”
“Money is tied up until the completion of the government contracts, which normally last 3 to 5 years, meaning during this time the money is effectively frozen.”
“There is a shortage of staff at the plants due to both mass mobilization and a lack of accommodation [housing] in the area.”
Hell of a way to run a railroad. One wonders how extensive these problems are with other companies in Russia’s military industrial complex
Ukraine’s strategy has shifted more in relation to the way the war developed, and the changing availability of western weapons, than any fundamental shift in strategy. It became apparent that this was going to be a war of attrition in the first year, and the question of which would break first: The west’s willingness to send Ukraine weapons, or Russia’s economy and ability to wage it’s illegal war of territorial aggression?
Nothing about that strategy has changed, only Ukraine’s greater reach to affect the latter.
