Posts Tagged ‘St. Petersburg (Russia)’

Denmark Strangles Russia Oil Lifeline

Sunday, October 19th, 2025

First a caveat that this video channel has a lot of “Russia is done for” content, so this video, being more in that line, deserves several grains of salt. But it makes a compelling case that Russia’s repeated Baltic provocations have now handed Denmark the legal means, reason and will to completely shut down Russia’s shadow fleet, and thus their last real economic lifeline.

  • “The blow that will finish off Russia is being dealt in an office in Copenhagen, hidden in the cold lines of an environmental law. Denmark has proven that the ghost shadow fleet Russia established to launder billions of dollars in oil revenues is not only an environmental killer, but also a secret base for drone attacks targeting NATO capitals.”
  • “With intelligence provided by Denmark, the 18-year-old tanker Boracay linked to Russia was seized by French commandos off the coast of Breast last week. It was reported that the ship was believed to have been involved in a recent drone attack on Copenhagen airport.” “Attack” is probably slightly overstating the case, but “illegal incursion of sovereign airspace” isn’t.
  • “From this moment on, Denmark moved to lock the Baltic Sea to Russian tankers.”
  • “On October 6th, the Danish government announced that it was tightening environmental and security inspections of oil tankers, especially old and high-risk vessels passing through its waters or anchored at Skagan Red, an important port between the Baltic and North Seas. However, this goes far beyond a simple security inspection. Danish Industry Minister Morten Bodskov was even more outspoken, saying, ‘We must put an end to Putin’s war machine.'”
  • “This also applies to the Russian shadow fleet. Authorities will now board and inspect ships that cannot be considered to be on a peaceful voyage, including those that are anchored. In other words, this decision allows Danish forces to raid any ship they suspect.”
  • Discussion of St. Petersburg, Kalinigrad, and how oil from Russia’s Siberian fields flows there for export snipped, as I’m pretty sure all my readers are familiar with this by now.
  • The Danish straits, “consisting of the Skagarak and Katagat, is Russia’s economic lifeline and at the same time its weakest link. This is precisely the weak link that Denmark is targeting.”
  • “In 1974, [the] Helsinki Convention [was] signed as a measure against the Baltic Sea’s increasing industrial pollution. A rare example of cooperation between the Eastern and Western blocks at the time, this agreement aimed to protect the Baltic Sea’s ecological balance. The agreement gave the signatory countries, including Denmark, the authority to [intervene] against ships passing through their waters that posed a serious threat to the environment.”
  • “According to real-time oil market data from financial agencies like Bloomberg, daily oil exports via the Baltic route were generating an average of $250 to $350 million in revenue for Russia. This revenue stream is now being systematically dismantled. This translates to a massive $10 billion monthly black hole or delay in the Russian federal budget.” Remember that the entire Russian yearly budget for 2024 was estimated to be $357 billion, so that would equal about 1/3rd of Russia’s entire budget.
  • “This was an inevitable consequence of NATO placing the region under an iron dome, forcing Russia into a corner and prompting reckless counter moves.”
  • “The Western Alliance, which turned the Baltic Sea into a strategic NATO lake with the participation of Finland and Sweden, did not leave this doctrine on paper. It backed it up with concrete and formidable military power that would prevent Russia from even breathing.”
  • “The most frightening symbol of this power was the world’s largest warship, the nuclear aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, and its accompanying strike group, which docked on the British coast in August 2025 and anchored in the North Sea. This 100,000 ton floating fortress, carrying more than 90 F-35 and F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets stood just west of the Danish Straits like a nuclear shield, preventing Russia from embarking on any military adventure.”
  • “But it was not alone. It was accompanied by the HMS Diamond, a type 45 destroyer belonging to the British Royal Navy and one of Europe’s most advanced air defense ships, and the FGS Hessen, the German Navy’s most modern frigate. This deadly trio supported by NATO standing Maritime Group 1 effectively trapped the Russian Baltic fleet in its bases in Kalinigrad.”
  • Snipping a description of various NATO flying assets, most of which (save the B-2) are probably flying overlapping NATO air patrol missions most of the time.
  • “In September 2025, NATO air radars sounded the alarm repeatedly. On September 22nd, German Eurofighter jets and on September 25th, Hungarian Gripen jets were forced to intercept Russian Su-30 and MiG-31 fighter jets flying over the Baltic and dangerously approaching civilian flight routes.”
  • “These were the desperate struggles of a cornered bear. As military provocations increased, the concrete dangers posed by the shadow fleet reached a level that could no longer be ignored.”
  • “According to a shocking report published just this week on October 5th, 2025, by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service, FE, Danish helicopters and ships patrolling the Danish Straits were repeatedly targeted by Russian warships using radar lock. This constitutes an extremely dangerous military provocation, implying that the next step could be firing. The report clearly stated that these actions were a hybrid warfare tactic aimed at applying pressure without crossing the line into armed conflict.”
  • Section on Russia and China’s undersea cable and pipeline sabotage snipped.
  • The final straw: “Russia was using civilian tankers belonging to its shadow fleet as launch platforms for kamikaze drone attacks on targets in Europe.” Again, see caveat above.
  • “Acting on this intelligence bombshell, the French Navy launched a breathtaking helicopter operation on the tanker Borachai sailing in the Bay of Bisque on the morning of September 30th.”
  • “A search of the ship’s cargo hold revealed at least six explosive-laden kamikaze UAV launchers hidden inside special containers tucked between oil tanks.”
  • “This was irrefutable concrete evidence that Russia had used a civilian ship for a military attack against a NATO country.”
  • “This chain of evidence, these accumulated provocations, and this final brazen move were the ultimate trigger that spurred Denmark into action, transforming that 50-year-old environmental law into a national security weapon.”
  • “Here, Denmark is putting the 1974 Helsinki Convention, Helcom, and International Maritime Law on the table rather than imposing a military blockade, which would be a cause for war.”
  • “The new legal framework grants Danish authorities the power to stop, inspect, and block the passage of uninsured, old, and poorly maintained tankers identified as belonging to the Shadow Fleet.”
  • “The operation will proceed as follows. A vessel belonging to the Danish Navy or Coast Guard will approach a suspicious tanker and request an inspection. Inspectors boarding the vessel will check its compliance with international maritime standards, namely the SAS, Safety of Life at Sea, and MARPOL [International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973 as modified by the Protocol of 1978] conventions. It is known that almost all shadow fleet vessels do not meet these standards.”
  • “If it is determined that insurance policies are fake or insufficient, emergency equipment is not working, personnel are inadequate, or the structural integrity of the vessel is at risk, the vessel will be labeled unfit for passage and will not be allowed to proceed.”
  • “Following the Boracay case, these inspections will now also include checking for suspicious military modifications or illegal cargo on board.”
  • “This is not an actual seizure or military intervention. It is a completely legitimate, internationally legal and unavoidable bureaucratic strangulation operation. Russia’s objection to this inspection amounts to an admission that its own ships are rotten and dangerous.”
  • “This is a flawless legal checkmate that strikes Putin with his own lies.”
  • The video goes on to suggest that this will be the final straw of cascading failure that breaks the Russian economy. Maybe, but we’ve heard these arguments before.
  • Also skipping over the argument that if Russia can’t export oil, they have to shut the pipelines off and their Siberian oil infrastructure will freeze in the ground. Peter Zeihan has been making this argument for years as well, but knowing the Russians, they could just dig a big hole in the ground to temporarily dump their crude into to avoid that happening.
  • “This legitimate step taken by Denmark following the Boracay plot could be the spark that ignites the beginning of the end of the war, illuminating the path to the Kremlin’s collapse. Vladimir Putin lost this war, which he could not win with missiles and armies, to an anonymous bureaucrat holding a folder in Copenhagen.”
  • Maybe. It’s certainly going to cut one of Russia’s final hard cash pipelines. But Russia has defied expectations of imminent economic collapse for over three years now. At some point, Russia’s failed illegal war of territorial aggression will finally break the country, but no one on the outside has had a good track record of predicting when…

    Ukraine Switching To A War Of Attrition Against Russia?

    Sunday, February 4th, 2024

    Two videos on increasing Russian logistics difficulties in the Russo-Ukrainian War. First up: A video that suggests Ukraine has switched from a territory recapture strategy to an attrition strategy.

  • “Russia is burning whether it’s oil terminals on the Baltic and the Black Sea, factories in far-flung Siberia, or military bases in Crimea, it seems almost every day something bursts into flames in Putin’s backyard. And Ukraine is thought to be the one behind it.” It’s an open question whether structure hits in places like Siberia are Ukrainian “werewolf” teams operating behind enemy lines, or native anti-Putin/anti-war (or even anti-Russian) partisans, but the effect seems the same: Russia now has to worry about attacks to its military, transport, energy, and manufacturing infrastructure far from the frontlines in Ukraine.
  • Zelensky warned Putin that if Russia attacked Ukrainian cities with indiscriminate missile attacks again, Ukraine would hit back. When it did, “Ukraine struck back a fire at the electrical substation outside Moscow, plunged three districts of the capital into darkness. Water pipes also burst, leaving people freezing in their homes. The plague of accidents soon spread to the cities of Omsk and Novosibirsk, deep in Siberia, which were left without heating as temperatures fell below -2.” Actually, Omsk and Novosibirsk aren’t “deep” in Siberia, because the place is so vast there another five time zones east of there.
  • “Soon after attacks began on critical infrastructure, including oil refineries upon which Putin’s economy relies. To date, three refineries have been blown up or set on fire, including two which were hit by long-range Ukrainian drones. One of those the Ust-Luga oil refinery near St. Petersburg, is almost 600 miles from Ukraine.”
  • “Railways and factories have also been blown up or burned down at the same time the Ukrainians have stepped up their campaign against Crimea.” Naval successes we’ve covered here already skipped.
  • At this point the video argues that Ukraine’s strategy was to liberate Ukrainian territory, no matter the strategic value. I don’t think that was the case.
  • Following the “failure” of the summer offensive (I would say “limited gains”), “Ukraine is digging in and refocusing liberation of territory is no longer the main goal hitting Russia where it hurts most.”
  • “Ukraine knows that victory in a long war depends on two things above all else: The will of people to keep fighting, and the ability of the country to provide weapons for them to fight with, and that’s where these drone missile and sabotage attacks come in.”
  • It then argues (as many others have) that Crimea is Putin’s main weakness, and that losing it will cripple his prestige and ability to stay in power and continue the war.
  • I think there has been a shift in Ukrainian strategy, but that shift has mainly been driven by the development and availability of longer-ranged weapons Ukraine lacked earlier in the war, combined with the effects of a long-term campaign to degrade Russia air power, naval assets and SAM systems, opening up avenues for longer range strikes. Ukraine focused on attacking Russia’s logistics systems right after the Battle of Kiev was won, but now they have the capability to hit much deeper into Russia’s logistics infrastructure.

    Actually, I’m surprised there haven’t been any reported attacks on the Trans-Siberian Railway, given what a long, slender link that is. A few medium-to-long range drone teams inserted into northern Kazakhstan or Mongolia could wreck real havoc on trains, lines, bridges, etc.

    Next, a video from Kanal 13 (very much a pro-Ukrainian source) suggests that the war and sanctions are cratering Russia’s military industrial complex.

  • “The Russian military industrial complex is being destroyed because of the war against Ukraine.”
  • Dimitri Fidive, CEO of the Muram Machine Building Plant, wrote in an email intercepted by the activists, that inflation and the shortcomings of Russia’s bureaucratic approach prevents plants that form the country’s military industrial complex from fulfilling government orders.”
  • “Plants are forced to sell their goods at prices set in 2019, but are at the same time expected to purchase details at market prices and in advance.”
  • “The money received from the government was not enough to cover the interest on the credit that his firm would need to take out to pay its suppliers.”
  • “Money is tied up until the completion of the government contracts, which normally last 3 to 5 years, meaning during this time the money is effectively frozen.”
  • “There is a shortage of staff at the plants due to both mass mobilization and a lack of accommodation [housing] in the area.”
  • Hell of a way to run a railroad. One wonders how extensive these problems are with other companies in Russia’s military industrial complex

    Ukraine’s strategy has shifted more in relation to the way the war developed, and the changing availability of western weapons, than any fundamental shift in strategy. It became apparent that this was going to be a war of attrition in the first year, and the question of which would break first: The west’s willingness to send Ukraine weapons, or Russia’s economy and ability to wage it’s illegal war of territorial aggression?

    Nothing about that strategy has changed, only Ukraine’s greater reach to affect the latter.

    Russia Now Getting U.S. Forces Directly On Its Border

    Saturday, December 16th, 2023

    Imagine a timeline in which Russia became a normal country.

    Imagine, instead of Putin and a corrupt oligarchy, that Russia had a functioning democracy and a viable economy. It wouldn’t need to be perfect, just something as functional as that seen in, say, Poland or Hungary. There would still be controversies and scandals, but Russia wouldn’t be an international pariah, and would still be fully plugged into the global trade system.

    And a normal country wouldn’t have launched an illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine.

    In such a timeline, old Russian foes Finland and Sweden would never see the need to join NATO. And Russia wouldn’t be getting U.S. bases right on its border.

    The US will gain access to 15 military bases along the border with Russia under a defence deal to be signed with Finland next week.

    Russia would regard the presence of Nato infrastructure near its borders as a threat, said Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman.

    “This will certainly lead to tension. We can only regret this,” Mr Peskov said.

    The treaty must be approved by Finland’s parliament.

    Elina Valtonen, the country’s foreign minister, will be present in Washington during the signing to meet Antony Blinken, the United States secretary of state.

    Washington signed a similar pact with Sweden on Dec 6 that gives the US access to 17 military bases.

    Concerns raised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led both Finland and Sweden to abandon their military non-alignment and apply for membership in the Nato.

    Finland joined in April, while Sweden is still waiting for its bid to be ratified by Nato members Hungary and Turkey.

    To be sure, the U.S. already has some access to the military bases of NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. But Finland is much larger than all three combined, and has a vast border with Russia. And the Finns, as I’ve noted before, are no pushovers, having fought the Soviet Union to stalemate during The Winter War.

    And now you add American force projection to Finland, and there chances of Russia securing its vast northern flank in any potential war against NATO is essentially nil. Plus it puts St. Petersburg at risk of being captured in a swift pincer movement.

    And with real U.S. Air Force support, Russia will be completely incapable of establishing or maintaining air superiority. Ukraine has already made it prohibitively dangerous for Russian aircraft to overfly their territory. How well do you think Ivan will fare when he has to go up against F-22s and F-35s? (And yes, there are already F-22s in Estonia. And Finland and Poland already have F-35s on order.)

    Of course, Russia could have avoided all this by not launching an illegal war of territorial aggression in Ukraine. But that would require it being a normal country, which is evidently too much to ask…

    (Hat tip: Prairie Pundit.)

    Russo-Ukrainian War Update for March 20, 2022

    Sunday, March 20th, 2022

    Some significant changes since the last update, mainly that Russian forces have finally taken Mariupol, allowing Russian forces in the east to linkup through Donetsk. But elsewhere a slow, grinding stalemate seems to prevail.

    Here’s the Livemap snapshot:

  • Here’s The Institute for the Study of War assessment:

    Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.

    The ultimate fall of Mariupol is increasingly unlikely to free up enough Russian combat power to change the outcome of the initial campaign dramatically. Russian forces concentrated considerable combat power around Mariupol drawn from the 8th Combined Arms Army to the east and from the group of Russian forces in Crimea to the west. Had the Russians taken Mariupol quickly or with relatively few losses they would likely have been able to move enough combat power west toward Zaporizhiya and Dnipro to threaten those cities. The protracted siege of Mariupol is seriously weakening Russian forces on that axis, however. The confirmed death of the commander of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division likely indicates the scale of the damage Ukrainian defenders are inflicting on those formations. The block-by-block fighting in Mariupol itself is costing the Russian military time, initiative, and combat power. If and when Mariupol ultimately falls the Russian forces now besieging it may not be strong enough to change the course of the campaign dramatically by attacking to the west.

    Russian forces in the south appear to be focusing on a drive toward Kryvyi Rih, presumably to isolate and then take Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west but are unlikely to secure any of those cities in the coming weeks if at all. Kryvyi Rih is a city of more than 600,000 and heavily fortified according to the head of its military administration. Zaporizhiya and Dnipro are also large. The Russian military has been struggling to take Mariupol, smaller than any of them, since the start of the war with more combat power than it is currently pushing toward Kryvyi Rih. The Russian advance on that axis is thus likely to bog down as all other Russian advances on major cities have done.

    The Russian military continues to commit small groups of reinforcements to localized fighting rather than concentrating them to launch new large-scale operations. Russia continues to commit units drawn from its naval infantry from all fleets, likely because those units are relatively more combat-ready than rank-and-file Russian regiments and brigades. The naval infantry belonging to the Black Sea Fleet is likely the largest single pool of ready reserve forces the Russian military has not yet committed. Much of that naval infantry has likely been embarked on amphibious landing ships off the Odesa coast since early in the war, presumably ready to land near Odesa as soon as Russian forces from Crimea secured a reliable ground line of communication (GLOC) from Crimea to Odesa. The likelihood that Russian forces from Crimea will establish such a GLOC in the near future is becoming remote, however, and the Russian military has apparently begun using elements of the Black Sea Fleet naval infantry to reinforce efforts to take Mariupol.

    The culmination of the initial Russian campaign is creating conditions of stalemate throughout most of Ukraine. Russian forces are digging in around the periphery of Kyiv and elsewhere, attempting to consolidate political control over areas they currently occupy, resupplying and attempting to reinforce units in static positions, and generally beginning to set conditions to hold in approximately their current forward positions for an indefinite time. Maxar imagery of Russian forces digging trenches and revetments in Kyiv Oblast over the past several days supports this assessment.[1] Comments by Duma members about forcing Ukraine to surrender by exhaustion in May could reflect a revised Russian approach to ending this conflict on terms favorable to Moscow.

    Stalemate will likely be very violent and bloody, especially if it protracts.

    (Hat tip: Chuck Devore.)

  • What the invasion revealed about the Russian military:

    Lots of problems, including a reiteration of the inability of the Russian air force to conduct combined arms operations, especially given their limited flight training (8 hours a month).

  • Speaking of limitations:

    Lots of tweets wonder aloud why there have been no confirmed T-14 Armata sightings in theater in Ukraine. We’ll know Russia is really desperate if they start hauling T-64s out of mothballs and into service. (Ukraine actually has a lot of modernized T-64 Bulats, as the original T-64 factory is there.)

  • “We Have Questions About Russia’s Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use In Ukraine.” “In the end, not everything adds up here. That’s just the reality. It is just as possible we are seeing a standard Iskander-M attack in the video as one by Kinzhal.” Russia had produced an awful lot of vaporware when it comes to wonderwaffen, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see their hypersonic missile fall into this category.

    And since we’re talking hypersonic and eastern Europe:

  • Poland is blocking trucks into Belarus.
  • Britain has sent more than 4,200 NLAW anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian civilian drone enthusiasts are carrying out realtime coordinated reconnaissance on Russian troops:

  • News from St. Petersburg: