February 2nd, 2011
Good question. Wish I knew. Or, more accurately, wish I knew more than what I can glean from various reports, which is that anti-Mubarak forces are getting a smackdown from pro-Mubarak forces, including (reportedly) police (secret and otherwise) in disguise. Beyond those clashes, its hard to tell what is going on. Maybe Mubarak waited until popular rage had run its course, and delayed the crackdown until fears of disorder and looting drove the majority of non-hardcore protesters off the street before beginning the crackdown.
The more I’ve read the past few days, the more I think that Mubarak survives until his promised stepping down in the September elections. What I’ve seen is lots of anti-Mubarak forces saying he has to step down now, he can’t survive, etc., as well as similar noises from various international governments, but no reports of Egyptian generals or colonels saying the same thing.
A few other interesting articles on the situation:
First-hand report of The Battle of Tahir Square
A summary of events as they have unfolded so far. It talks about Gamal Mubarak’s technocrat friends working economic miracles but their takeover of the ruling ruling NDP party alienated the army, which saw the NDP as a rival power.
Michael Totten interviews Abbas Milani on parallels between Egypt today and the fall of the Shah in Iran.
The ever readable Christopher Hitchens on Mubarak’s shaming Egyptians. “It’s possible that people will overlook outright brutality sooner than they will forgive undisguised contempt.” (David Pryce-Jones also made much of the Arab shame/honor response in The Closed Circle.)
Tags: Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Jihad
Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad | No Comments »
January 31st, 2011
No, you can’t have a health care mandate. Not yours.
“Because the individual mandate is unconstitutional, and not severable, the entire Act must be declared void,” Vinson said.
Unpopular, untenable, and unconstitutional. No wonder Obama wants to declare the health care debate over. He’s losing it. Badly.
Tags: ObamaCare
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January 31st, 2011
Hosni Mubarak seems to have adopted an interesting strategy to deal with the unrest gripping his country: Let the worst of it rage with a minimum of reprisals and crackdowns, and then slowly but surely reassert his control using the police and the military. Such a strategy walks the fine line between appearing weak enough to let the revolution push him out of power, and a Tienanmen-type crackdown that leaves thousands dead. So far it seems to be working: Despite some blips and waivers, the army still appears to be following Mubarak’s orders. If they continue to do so, it’s hard to see how the called-for general strike can be total enough to paralyze the nation. And if gas and food continue to make it through, it’s hard to see the general masses being radicalized enough to join the call to oust Mubarak.
Also, National Review reminds us that the Muslim Brotherhood is bad news.
Tags: Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Jihad, Muslim Brotherhood, strike, unrest
Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad | No Comments »
January 31st, 2011
The situation this morning looks much the same as it did last night: neither side backing down, the army following Mubarak’s orders (for now).
Once again the live update pages have changed:
BBC
Al Jazeera
And here’s an interesting article placing the Egyptian situation in the context of higher global food prices, which is driving global unrest. So ethanol subsidies, which were supposed to ween us from dependence on unstable Middle Eastern sources of oil, are helping destabilize the Middle East. Good work, guys!
Tags: agribusiness subsidies, Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Jihad, unrest
Posted in Economics, Foreign Policy, Jihad | No Comments »
January 30th, 2011
Or so say their sources:
The Egyptian military and internal security forces have coordinated a crackdown for the hours ahead in an effort to clear the streets of the demonstrators. The interior minister has meanwhile negotiated his stay for the time being, in spite of widespread expectations that he, seen by many Egyptians as the source of police brutality in the country, would be one of the first ministers that would have to be sacked in order to quell the demonstrations. Instead, both Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and al-Adly, the two main targets of ire for the demonstrators, seem to be betting that they can ride this crisis out and remain in power. So far, the military seems to be acquiescing to these decisions.
Tags: Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Jihad, Middle East, Muslim Brotherhood, Stratfor
Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad | No Comments »
January 30th, 2011
Haaretz reports that military men are taking off their helmets and being hoisted by the crowd in Cairo, chanting “the people and the military are one.” (Hat tip: Belmonst Club.)
All the protest factions (including the Muslim brotherhood, who seem quite content to stay in the background for now) have settled on Mohamed ElBaradei as the leader and presumptive transition President should Mubarak fall. ElBaradei is reported to be at Tahrir Square.
Stratfor analyzes the Egyptian military, and the possibility that Islamist sympathizers exist within its ranks.
Here’s a Wall Street Journal report from two years ago on the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt’s (generally successful) attempts to suppress it.
Once again, the live update sources have changed:
NRO
BBC
The Atlantic
Al Jazerra
Tags: Egypt, Jihad, Mohamed ElBaradei, Muslim Brotherhood, unrest
Posted in Foreign Policy, Jihad | No Comments »
January 29th, 2011
Not a lot of news coming out. The longer it takes things to happen, the more likely Mubarak is to hold onto power. Yesterday brought scattered reports that the army may be wavering in support of Mubarak. Today? Not so much. There are sporadic reports of gunfire, and lots of reports that citizens groups are banding together to prevent looting.
The old links down the page stopped updating at the end of the day. The new links are:
The BBC.
The Atlantic.
Egyptian blogger Sandmonkey’s Twitter feed
As for what an actual popular Egyptian government might look like, Michael Totten reminds us that the answer might be pretty ugly:
In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
Asked if they supported “modernizers” or “Islamists” only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, there are reports of unrest in Yemen. Conversely, yesterday’s reports that Syria had also taken down nationwide Internet access appear to have been false.
Tags: Egypt, Islamist, Jihad, Michael Totten, Middle East, Muslim Brotherhood, Syria, unrest, Yemen
Posted in Global Warming, Jihad, Media Watch | 1 Comment »
January 29th, 2011
This is not good news.
It would be great if the current unrest lead to a free, democratic government in Egypt. However, it is just as likely that events will lead to widespread Islamization of regional governments and another Arab-Israeli war.
Tags: Egypt, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Jihad, Muslim Brotherhood
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January 28th, 2011
More Egypt (and related) tidbits:
Stratfor is reporting that Egyptian security forces have fallen back from from Tahrir Square.
There are reports that the Internet in Syria has also been taken down, though other reports contradict this.
Elliot Abrams thinks the military might very well turn on Mubarak.
Dwight over at Whipped Cream Difficulties takes a look at Egypt’s situation and how it meets (or almost meets) the five modern criteria for a successful revolution.
If you like more updates than you can possibly look at (or like looking at the Fail Whale), here’s the Twitter view of events. (“2,077 more tweets since you started searching.”)
Tags: Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, Syria
Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »