Haaretz reports that military men are taking off their helmets and being hoisted by the crowd in Cairo, chanting “the people and the military are one.” (Hat tip: Belmonst Club.)
All the protest factions (including the Muslim brotherhood, who seem quite content to stay in the background for now) have settled on Mohamed ElBaradei as the leader and presumptive transition President should Mubarak fall. ElBaradei is reported to be at Tahrir Square.
Stratfor analyzes the Egyptian military, and the possibility that Islamist sympathizers exist within its ranks.
Not a lot of news coming out. The longer it takes things to happen, the more likely Mubarak is to hold onto power. Yesterday brought scattered reports that the army may be wavering in support of Mubarak. Today? Not so much. There are sporadic reports of gunfire, and lots of reports that citizens groups are banding together to prevent looting.
The old links down the page stopped updating at the end of the day. The new links are:
As for what an actual popular Egyptian government might look like, Michael Totten reminds us that the answer might be pretty ugly:
In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
Asked if they supported “modernizers” or “Islamists” only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, there are reports of unrest in Yemen. Conversely, yesterday’s reports that Syria had also taken down nationwide Internet access appear to have been false.
It would be great if the current unrest lead to a free, democratic government in Egypt. However, it is just as likely that events will lead to widespread Islamization of regional governments and another Arab-Israeli war.
If you like more updates than you can possibly look at (or like looking at the Fail Whale), here’s the Twitter view of events. (“2,077 more tweets since you started searching.”)
1724: BBC Arabic correspondent Khaled Ezzelarab in Cairo reports: “Despite the curfew, demonstrators are surrounding the building of Egyptian radio and TV and trying to break into it. The building is guarded by armed forces, and the demonstrators are cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people.””
The vast majority of modern revolutions are not won by beating the government’s armies in the field, they’re won when the army no longer has the heart to fire on the people. If Mubarak still has the army on his side, he’ll survive the unrest. However, if he doesn’t, as the report above indicates, then it’s all over. The instant a dictator loses the army, he loses power. That’s why the Communist Chinese are still in power and Nicolae Ceausescu died of acute lead poisoning.
Some people have been linking to Al Jazeera for live footage, but that requires installing RealPlayer, and there are some things I just won’t do…
Is this revolution a good or bad thing for Egypt? Depends on who comes out on top. Hosni Mubarak probably isn’t on the list of the ten most brutal and corrupt world leaders, but he probably does make the top twenty. Replacing him with a real Democratic government would be great. Replacing him with the Muslim Brotherhood would be like replace the Shah with Ayatollah Khomeini, only possibly a lot worse.
The big Jihad news this week, of course, was the Moscow bombing. But that was hardly the only thing of note:
The Moscow bombers were evidently trained in Pakistan. “An al-Qaeda linked website said that the group Islamic Caucasus Emirate, led by the rebe Doku Umarov, was poised to claim it had staged the attack. It said that Russia’s harsh military measures against independence activists in the Caucasus had provoked the attack. It said: ‘You disbelievers are the firewood of Hell. You will enter it.'” (I’m guessing “rebe” is short for “rebel,” though I have not heretofore heard it used.)
Dokka Umerov has repeatedly made it very clear that he wants nothing to do with al Qaeda, or bin Laden.
The latter point reveals the following about the global War on Terror. First, the US and British efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq have succeeded in destroying al Qaeda’s reputation amongst Islamist organizations. If an Islamist cause as major as the Caucasus Emirate wants to stay clean of al Qaeda, it means that al Qaeda equals trouble. Al Qaeda involvement means interference from the world’s great powers.
Second, Russia’s situation reveals that the US and British efforts have failed to do significant damage to the ideology of Islamism. If a nationalist movement turns itself into a movement with Islamist objectives in order to make itself stronger, then it proves that the ideals to which al Qaeda subscribes have not been significantly damaged.
Australian artist receives death threats from left-wingers and islamists for anti-burqua mural. Once again we see the alliance of the left and radical Islam.
New Imam of Ground Zero Mosque says that all apostates from Islam should be jailed. This is a great improvement from the standard clerical opinion that they should be killed…
All you Islamophobes who say Mohammed was a pedophile are way off base. Sure, Mohammed married a 6 year old, but all Islamic experts agree that he refrained from having sex with her until she reached the ripe old age of 9.
Islamic man in Buffalo texts his wife that he can’t live without her. Twenty minutes later he beheaded her.