And here’s an interesting article placing the Egyptian situation in the context of higher global food prices, which is driving global unrest. So ethanol subsidies, which were supposed to ween us from dependence on unstable Middle Eastern sources of oil, are helping destabilize the Middle East. Good work, guys!
The Egyptian military and internal security forces have coordinated a crackdown for the hours ahead in an effort to clear the streets of the demonstrators. The interior minister has meanwhile negotiated his stay for the time being, in spite of widespread expectations that he, seen by many Egyptians as the source of police brutality in the country, would be one of the first ministers that would have to be sacked in order to quell the demonstrations. Instead, both Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and al-Adly, the two main targets of ire for the demonstrators, seem to be betting that they can ride this crisis out and remain in power. So far, the military seems to be acquiescing to these decisions.
Haaretz reports that military men are taking off their helmets and being hoisted by the crowd in Cairo, chanting “the people and the military are one.” (Hat tip: Belmonst Club.)
All the protest factions (including the Muslim brotherhood, who seem quite content to stay in the background for now) have settled on Mohamed ElBaradei as the leader and presumptive transition President should Mubarak fall. ElBaradei is reported to be at Tahrir Square.
Stratfor analyzes the Egyptian military, and the possibility that Islamist sympathizers exist within its ranks.
Not a lot of news coming out. The longer it takes things to happen, the more likely Mubarak is to hold onto power. Yesterday brought scattered reports that the army may be wavering in support of Mubarak. Today? Not so much. There are sporadic reports of gunfire, and lots of reports that citizens groups are banding together to prevent looting.
The old links down the page stopped updating at the end of the day. The new links are:
As for what an actual popular Egyptian government might look like, Michael Totten reminds us that the answer might be pretty ugly:
In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
Asked if they supported “modernizers” or “Islamists” only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, there are reports of unrest in Yemen. Conversely, yesterday’s reports that Syria had also taken down nationwide Internet access appear to have been false.
It would be great if the current unrest lead to a free, democratic government in Egypt. However, it is just as likely that events will lead to widespread Islamization of regional governments and another Arab-Israeli war.
If you like more updates than you can possibly look at (or like looking at the Fail Whale), here’s the Twitter view of events. (“2,077 more tweets since you started searching.”)
1724: BBC Arabic correspondent Khaled Ezzelarab in Cairo reports: “Despite the curfew, demonstrators are surrounding the building of Egyptian radio and TV and trying to break into it. The building is guarded by armed forces, and the demonstrators are cheering for the army, while the latter is not getting into confrontations with the people.””
The vast majority of modern revolutions are not won by beating the government’s armies in the field, they’re won when the army no longer has the heart to fire on the people. If Mubarak still has the army on his side, he’ll survive the unrest. However, if he doesn’t, as the report above indicates, then it’s all over. The instant a dictator loses the army, he loses power. That’s why the Communist Chinese are still in power and Nicolae Ceausescu died of acute lead poisoning.
Some people have been linking to Al Jazeera for live footage, but that requires installing RealPlayer, and there are some things I just won’t do…
Is this revolution a good or bad thing for Egypt? Depends on who comes out on top. Hosni Mubarak probably isn’t on the list of the ten most brutal and corrupt world leaders, but he probably does make the top twenty. Replacing him with a real Democratic government would be great. Replacing him with the Muslim Brotherhood would be like replace the Shah with Ayatollah Khomeini, only possibly a lot worse.