Here’s a Site Estimating Republicans Will Gain 57 Seats in the House

October 18th, 2010

According to Freedom’s Lighthouse. I don’t know much about them, so caveat lector.

Among the races BattleSwarm has previously covered, they show the following incumbent Democrats losing:

  • Suzanne Kosmas (FL 24)
  • Trent Van Haaften (IN 8 ) (not an incumbent, running for Brad Ellsworth’s open seat)
  • Gary McDowell (MI 1) (not an incumbent, running for Bart Stupak‘s open seat)
  • Steve Driehaus (OH 1)
  • Kathy Dahlkemper (PA 3)
  • Paul Kanjorski (PA 11)
  • Chet Edwards (TX 17)
  • Ciro Rodriguez (TX 23)

So, all eight of the vulnerable democrats I profiled here are currently down as GOP flips.

Further, Charles Wilson (OH 6) is rated as a tossup.

Again, I’m not that familiar with the source, so take this with a grain of salt, and just another data point on how high the tidal wave might reach.

Why did Maryland Trail Lawyer Mel Sykes give Ciro Rodriguez $2,350?

October 18th, 2010

No, really, I want to know. And though I have donated to Rodriguez’s opponent Francisco Canseco (more coverage of the race here), I don’t mean that in an ominous, scary voice-over attack ad sort of way. I’m genuinely curious.

I believe that this is the Mel Sykes in question. He seems to be involved in Asbestos and mesothelioma litigation, among other things.

Looking through that list of Rodriguez contributors, a lot of the donations are pretty typical for an incumbent Democratic congressman. Lots of donations from local business leaders, plus lots of money from DC lobbyists, such as:

And, of course, lots of money from unions.

Those I all understand. Those are fairly typical Democratic incumbent donations. But Sykes seems to be an actual litigator rather than a lobbyist. And according to Rodriguez’s official congressional website:

Today Congressman Rodriguez serves on the House Committee on Appropriations where he sits on the Homeland Security; Transportation, Housing & Urban Development & Related Agencies; and Legislative Branch Subcommittees. He also sits on the House Committee on Veterans Affairs where he is a member of the Subcommittee on Health and the Subcommittee on Assistance & Memorial Affairs. Congressman Rodriguez remains a member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) where he serves as the Chair of the Taskforce on Agriculture and Rural Communities.

Maybe I’m just ignorant of the inner workings of some of those committees, but none seem directly related to mesothelioma or general litigation, which would (I believe) fall under the purview of the Committee on Education and Labor’s Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions Subcommittee and the House Judiciary Committee, neither of which Rodriguez appears to be on.

Granted, trail lawyers (like Big Labor) love Democratic incumbents. But why the donations from this particular Maryland lawyer to Ciro Rodriguez? If you have any idea, post below or email me.

(One of the most disappointing things about pursuing Rodrigeuz’s donor list is the fact that former Republican congressman and current lobbyist Jack Fields gave him $2,000, a sad example of William F. Buckley’s aphorism that “By the time one of our people get into a position of power, they’re no longer one of our people.”)

It’s Good to Be the King

October 18th, 2010

The king of creating jobs, that is. “More than half of the net new jobs in the U.S. during the past 12 months were created in the Lone Star State.”

Funny what happens when you have:

  • No state income tax
  • Right to work laws
  • No out-of-control public employee unions
  • Conservative Republicans in charges of the Governor’s mansion, the House, and the Senate
  • Which have actually constrained the growth of government during boom times
  • A requirement by law to balance the budget
  • Regulations that encourage private enterprise rather than punish it
  • A healthy disdain for Political Correctness
  • A thriving high tech sector
  • Warm weather
  • Natural ports

Some might think the last three are the most important factors, but California has all those as well, and their economy is biting the moose hard.

For a more detailed breakdown of of why Texas is kicking California’s ass (and not just at football), read this Arduin, Laffer & Moore report put out by the Texas Public Policy Foundation. Notice, for example, that Texas has lower taxes in every single category except sale tax (where the two are close to even)…and California is still broke! You can’t tax your way to prosperity.

Liberal policies don’t fail because of bad luck, or because of some sinister conservative conspiracy to make them fail. Liberal policies fail because the liberal ideas behind them are wrong.

Reality, it seems, has a free market bias.

Select Long-Shot House Campaigns

October 14th, 2010

A few days ago I covered a handful of the most competitive House races. With tides moving so strongly against the Democrats, now would be a good time to look at some House races that Republicans might view as hopeless in any other year.

But this year, all bets are off.

So here are some long-shot campaigns for the seats of particularly egregious incumbent House Democrats that just might fall the GOP’s way in this election:

  • Jerry Costello of Illinois vs. Teri Newman for Illinois 12th Congressional District. (Teri, here’s a free hint: Auto-running movies with sound on your website isn’t going to win you any votes.) Costello is a Stupak bloc flip-flopper who voted for the Stimulus, but against TARP and Cap-and-Trade.
  • Joseph Donnelly vs. Jackie Walorski for Indiana’s second congressional district. Donnelly is another Stupak bloc flip-flopper, and also voted for TARP and the Stimulus, but against ObamaCare. Walorski has been endorsed by Sarah Palin, so she might well have more money and attention than others on this list.
  • Lloyd Doggett vs. Dr. Donna Campbell for the Texas 25th congressional district. Having endured having old liberal warhorse Lloyd Doggett as my Representative back when I still lived within the confines of The People’s Republic of Austin, I would be delighted to see a Republican take Doggett out. Doggett voted against TARP, but for the Stimulus, Cap-and-Trade, and ObamaCare. One issue in the campaign is Doggett’s writing language into federal law to deprive Texas of almost a billion dollars in federal education funds. In this Human Events piece on the race, Campbell notes that Doggett “voted 98% of the time with Nancy Pelosi. And him getting in again, is one more vote that keeps Pelosi in.”
  • Barney Frank vs. ex-Marine Sean Bielat for Massachusetts’ Fourth Congressional District. Frank is as much responsible as anyone in the House for helping create the current recession by his steadfast opposition to tightening regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac at the same time he was having an affair with Fannie Mae executive Herb Moses. Frank, as you would expect, has a perfect liberal record in voting for TARP, the Stimulus, Cap-and-Trade, and ObamaCare. Here’s a Wall Street Journal piece on the race.
  • Charlie Rangel vs. Michael Faulkner for New York’s 15th congressional district. Rangel is, of course, a corrupt scumbag. (The question of whether he’s the most corrupt scumbag in the House I’ll leave as an exercise for the reader.) Like Al Sharpton, he has a certain amount of venomous charm. Unlike Sharpton, he’s actually been elected. Like Frank, Rangel has a perfect liberal record in voting for TARP, the Stimulus, Cap-and-Trade, and ObamaCare. Faulkner has a good bit of name recognition from being a former New York Jets football player. The differences between Faulkner and Rangel are legion (not least of which is my working assumption that Faulkner isn’t a corrupt scumbag), but one of particular local interest may play a role if this race becomes the upset of all upsets: Rangel supports the Ground Zero Mosque while Faulkner opposes it. Polling for the race is non-existent (Democrats outnumber Republicans 15-1), but at least some observers think it might be more competitive than expected.

Remember, in 1994 no one expected Speaker of the House Tom Foley’s race to be even remotely competitive, but George Nethercutt still beat him, and there are some observers who say it could very well be much worse for Democrats this year than 1994. If that’s the case, then it’s a good bet one or more of the Republican candidates listed above will pull off an upset.

“Americans Still Trust Own Judgment More Than Politicians'”

October 14th, 2010

Imagine that. Ordinary Americans thinking they know what’s better for themselves than their political betters. Has someone informed The New York Times of this heresy?

And yes, that’s the actual Gallup Poll headline, not an Iowahawk parody of a Gallup Poll headline.

614,935 to 1

October 13th, 2010

Number of people in Rep. Jim Oberstar’s Minnesota Eighth Congressional District: 614,935

Number of individuals in his District who donated to Oberstar’s election campaign this year: 1

I’ve long thought that limiting campaign contributions to in-district or in-state might radically cut down on special interest abuse, and Rep. Oberstar is now the poster-child for that notion.

(BTW, Oberstar racked up a perfect liberal 4×4 record by voting for for TARP, the Stimulus, Cap-and Trade and ObamaCare.)

(Hat tip: Powerline.)

This Week in Jihad

October 13th, 2010

Though I’m going to be concentrating heavily on election coverage the next three weeks, the rest of the world doesn’t stop just because the U.S. is having an election. Here’s a roundup of this week’s problems with Jihad, Islamists, Sharia, Islam, and the Middle East in general. (You might also have noticed that I’ve added a Foreign Policy/Jihad links section.)

So here’s a week’s worth of (mostly depressing) developments:

NRO’s New Battle ’10 Blog

October 12th, 2010

I’m not sure if you noticed, but National Review Online has put up a new blog, Battle ’10, for this year’s elections. It’s well worth checking out if you want to follow various races. (And I’m not saying that just because they linked to me.)

After Getting Them to Flip for ObamaCare, National Democrats Says “See Ya!” to Kosmas, Driehaus, and Dahlkemper

October 12th, 2010

So right after I put this piece on vulnerable Democratic House seats, this New York Times story appears stating that three of the Dem Reps we profiled, Steve Driehaus (OH 1), Suzanne Kosmas (FL 24) and Kathy Dahlkemper (PA 3) have been “triaged” and will no longer receive national Democratic TV advertising buys. As I noted yesterday, all three flipped their ObamaCare votes from No to Yes, two of them (Driehaus and Dahlkemper) as theoretically Pro-Life members of Bart Stupak’s bloc.

So the same party that pressured them to abandon their “deeply held beliefs” to pass ObamaCare is now tossing each of them aside like a used condom. I hope they enjoy the sour lemony tang of those just deserts.

The Times piece goes on to state that the Democrats are now targeting ad buys for Rep. Charles Wilson (OH 6) (not to be confused with late Texas Rep. “Goodtime” Charlie Wilson, of anti-Communist fame), another Stupak-bloc flipper who was not on that list of 72 endangered Democrats, which would indicate there are fewer and fewer “safe” Democratic seats in this election. In addition to ObamaCare, Wilson voted for TARP and the Stimulus, but against Cap-and-Trade. Wilson’s opponent is Bill Johnson, who’s drawn endorsements from Sarah Palin and other GOP heavy hitters.

Although it’s always wise to heed Instapundit’s “don’t get cocky” advice, I like the way Power and Control’s M. Simon Rockford put it: “Republicans at 100+ House seats is looking better every day.”

Washington Post Editors Are So Afraid of Islamists…

October 11th, 2010

That they’re refusing to run a cartoon that doesn’t show Mohammed.

Evidently the right for Muslims not to be offended now trumps all other considerations in the minds of the MSM.

See also: