Happy New Year, everyone! The Biden Recession bites deeper, Israel dirtnaps a top terrorist, Harvard’s chief plagiarist finally steps down, and the crypto CEO who wasn’t there. It’s the Friday LinkSwarm!
The monthly nonfarm payrolls (from the Establishment Survey) may have been weak at 216K but the far more accurate Household Survey showed that the number of Employed workers actually collapsed by an unprecedented 683K, the biggest drop since the US economy was shutdown by covid!
Even scarier, while the monthly grind higher in the payrolls number (pulled from the far less accurate Establishment Survey) means that US jobs hit a record high every month with bizarre consistency and in December this was certainly the case, the total nonfarm employment number rose to an all time high 157.232 million, the abovementioned collapse in US Employment (per Household survey) meant that there were only 161.183 million employed people in the US, the lowest since June, with the now traditional divergence between these two surveys glaringly obvious.
A senior Hamas leader was killed Tuesday in a drone strike in Beirut, Lebanon, during a meeting between Palestinian factions at a Hamas office.
Saleh al-Arouri, deputy chairman of Hamas’s political bureau and commander of the terror group’s military wing in the West Bank, and at least five others died from the explosion, which occurred near Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut, Lebanese state media reported. Several more were injured. Following the blast, Hamas blamed Israel for the “Zionist raid” amid its ongoing war with the Jewish state. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike.
Many Israeli officials declined to comment. However, Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich posted a statement on X shortly after the attack: “Surely your enemies will perish, O Israel.”
In November, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated he ordered the nation’s Mossad spy agency to eliminate Hamas leaders around the world after the militant group’s coordinated October 7 attack. Netanyahu’s office also declined to comment about the explosion.
Al-Arouri, whom Hamas described as “one of the architects” of the terror attack on Israel, had close ties with Yahwa Sinwar, the group’s leader in Gaza. Al-Arouri is the most senior Hamas leader to have been killed since the war began in early October.
A good chunk of the Epstein files have finally been released. Some revelations: Bill Clinton “likes them young” and Donald Trump didn’t have sex with at least one girl who was asked under oath about it.
Harvard President Claudine Gay finally does the right thing and resigns in wake of burgeoning plagiarism scandal.
A three act farce: Act 1: “Ohio governor Mike DeWine (R.) on Friday vetoed a bill that would have banned both transgender procedures for minors and trans student-athlete participation in school sports in the state.” Act 2: Turns out DeWine has taken taken over $40,000 in donations from pro-child-genital-mutilation hospitals. Act 3: “Republican Ohio governor Mike DeWine issued an “emergency” executive order Friday banning child gender-transition surgeries after receiving intense backlash last week for vetoing a bill with a broader but similar mandate.” Ohio’s Republican legislature can and should override DeWine’s foolish veto.
Robert F. Kennedy, jr. qualifies for the presidential ballot in Utah.
Last month, American Values 2024, a super PAC supporting the third-party candidate, announced a plan to spend nearly $15 million to get Kennedy on the ballot in ten states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Texas. All are important to winning the 2024 race.
I don’t see RFK Jr. doing even as well in Utah as Egg McMuffin did in 2016, and of the other states, only Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and Nevada might have any effect on the election, all four of which went (however fraudulently) for Biden in 2020.
Ricky Gervais has a great idea: He and Dave Chappelle should co-host the Oscars. That would indeed be a smash ratings success, and I would watch the Oscars for the first time this century.
This is the only way for us to live in peace,” said Texas Governor Greg Abbot. “The citizens of Austin have been at war with the people of Texas for many years now, and to end the bloodshed for future generations, we are willing to recognize Austin as its own separate and sovereign land.”
The resolution brought much-needed relief to the war-torn area, where battle lines had been drawn along the border of Austin. “The weirdo hipsters of Austin can stand down now,” said Texas Senator Ted Cruz in a statement acknowledging the resolution. “The people of Austin can now stop patrolling the perimeter of the city in armored tanks and go back to driving electric vehicles, painting strange murals nobody understands, and hating everything the United States stands for.”
One reason to be cautiously optimistic of anarcho-capitalist outsider Javier Milei’s victory in their presidential election is just how freaked out the international left is over it.
In a world with two (or more) major wars going on, China imploding, and a major U.S. recession, a libertarian winning election in Argentina is suddenly the new Worst Thing Ever.
“This came after years of far left fascist rule which has plunged the country into crisis, with the inflation rate hitting 143% earlier this month. Argentina has gone from a wealthy nation with an enviable standard of living to one destroyed by socialist lunacy.”
“That’s why firebrand Javier Milei, a conservative, a libertarian, a vehemently anti-socialist, anti-woke outsider won the presidential election in a landslide.”
“The world’s media went into a predictable meltdown, similar to when Italy’s center-right Giorgia Meloni was elected prime minister last year.”
“But the election results show Argentinians, including young Argentinians, importantly, have finally woken up to the lunacy of watching close to half the population live in poverty despite being blessed with abundant natural resources.”
Milei “has been clear in his desire to tackle the bloated bureaucracy that has so poorly served the country.”
And yes, he still intends to shut down Argentina’s central bank. “This weekend he confirmed that it was an absolute, non-negotiable.”
He wants to eliminate the Ministry of Sports and Tourism, the Ministry of Culture, the Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development, the Ministry of Women, Genders and Diversity, and Ministry of Public Works.
Says Milei: “We are crushing them in the cultural battle! We are not only economically superior, we’re culturally superior, we are aesthetically superior, we are better than them at everything, and that triggers them!”
And since they can’t beat him in the field of ideas, “they use the repressive power of the state to destroy their enemies.”
You know who else likes the cut of Milei’s jib? Donald Trump.
“Congratulations to Javier Milei on a great race for President of Argentina! The whole world was watching, and I’m very proud of you! You will turn your country around and truly make Argentina great again!”
There are a lot of reasons to celebrate Javier Milei’s election as president of Argentina, the biggest of which is that he’s going to apply free market, limited government principles to reviving Argentina’s moribund economy.
“People are not free in China, they can’t do what they want and when they do it, they get killed,” he told Bloomberg News on Wednesday, referring to Beijing’s government. “Would you trade with an assassin?”
Milei shook Argentina’s political establishment last weekend after receiving more votes than a probusiness opposition bloc and the ruling Peronist coalition, putting him in the lead to be the country’s next president. His election in October would generate shock waves across a region largely ruled by leftist leaders.
In his blanket refusal to do any kind of business with “socialists,” he lumped Communist China in the same category as Argentina’s biggest trade partner, Brazil, led by leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. China is the second-largest buyer of Argentine exports and provides a crucial $18 billion swap line with the central bank that’s being used to pay the International Monetary Fund.
He described his foreign policy proposals as a global “fight against socialists and statists.”
Libertarians critical of communists? What are the odds?
It probably means that Argentina won’t be buying any of China’s crappy jet fighters, either.
An important but less dramatic aspect of the Russo-Ukrainian War is just what effects the war and resulting sanctions are having on the Russian economy. It’s hard for outsiders to get a handle on just how badly the Russian economy is doing. Since Russia was a net grain and oil exporter before invading Ukraine, it’s not likely to have obvious shortages in food and fuel.
One economic proxy is exchange rates on the Russian ruble, which is now stuck right around 100 to the dollar. But as Joe Blogs explains, Russia has recently undertaken several actions that indicate the situation is worse than just the exchange rates would have you believe.
“The Russian authorities have now imposed additional currency controls, which restrict Western companies that sell their Russian assets from taking the proceeds in dollars and Euros. International companies that want to exit Russia now have to sell their assets in rubles, and if they insist on receiving foreign currency for their assets, they face delays or even losses on the sums that can be transferred abroad.” Obviously I have zero sympathy for any western company still doing business in Russia, as they should have extracted themselves shortly after Russia launched their illegal war of territorial aggression in 2022, but it’s hardly going to encourage the ones that remain to put more resources into their businesses there.
Russia first started slapping currency controls down when the ruble weakened in July, with various repatriation restrictions and limiting schemes. Also, businesses wanting to get their money out were forced to pay “a contribution to the Russian budget, which is deemed to be ‘voluntary’ but in reality is mandatory, which was recently raised from 10% to 15% of the total transaction value.” The line item on that should probably read “Vlad’s Protection Money.”
Plus: “The sale of any Russian assets must take place at a discount of at least 50%.” You lie down with jackals and you wake up with fleas.
Various other indignities visited upon foreign businesses doing Russia snipped because, really, screw those guys.
Then there are the foreign income controls:
On October 11 “President Putin signed a decree mandating the reintroduction of capital controls for an undisclosed list of 43 exporting firms. The controls will last for six months, and Russia has not published the list of which companies these measures will apply to. However, they are companies in the fuel, energy, metal, chemical, timber and grain industries. Starting from October the 16th, certain Russian exporters within 60 days from the moment of receiving funds are obliged to credit their accounts in Russian banks with no less than 80% of all foreign currency received in accordance with the conditions of their export contracts. They also required within two weeks to sell on the country’s domestic market no less than 90% of foreign currency revenues credited to their accounts at Russian banks.
“President Putin believes that this will solve the problems with the ruble, and stated there are reasons to believe that the ruble rate is fluctuating because foreign currency earnings are not being returned in sufficient volume to mobilize the money supply on the domestic market.” Or, and here’s an alternate theory, rubles are worthless because no one inside or outside the country wants to keep them.
“Twelve months ago, one US dollar was trading for 61 Russian rubles, to today it’s trading for 93, which represents a fall in value of more than 50% in the last year, which is an absolute disaster from a currency perspective. The long-term value of the ruble has declined significantly.”
“There is absolutely no way that the Kremlin is happy with an exchange rate of 93 to 1.”
“Let’s not forget that the current exchange rate has only been achieved after four interest rate rises over the last three months, which means that it’s doubled in a three month period.” Russia’s interest rate is currently at 15%, which is one of the highest in the world.
Had Russia not intervened, “the ruble [to dollar exchange rate] could have hit 120 or 130. So Russia is currently doing everything within its powers to maintain the value of the ruble. But even after all of that effort the ruble is trading at its worst level at any time in history” save that right after the Ukraine invasion.
With all those rules and declining ruble values, Russian companies have less and less money to spend in international markets, which demand hard currency.
Even though sanctions are leaky, Russia’s crashing economy means the ruble is worth less, and Russian companies will find it harder and harder to buy things (like computer chips) on the international market that requires hard currency. And remember that that BRICS currency idea is going nowhere.
Expect Russia’s economy to continue declining as long as Russia is still trying to occupy Ukraine.
The now-torn down Kowloon Walled City was a megastructure/hyperslum/gangster paradise situated just outside Hong Kong proper.
Kowloon City was an acknowledged influence on William Gibson’s urban dystopian cyberpunk: A hyper-dense, interconnected, lawless locale whose buildings and infrastructure grew organically without rhyme, reason, planning or building codes. It was one inspiration for the phrase “Temporary Autonomous Zone” briefly popular among anarchists and Libertarians in the 1980s and 90s.
In this video, YouTuber Dami Lee argues that Kowloon City is best understood as a rhizome, a kind of horizontal-growing root that intertwines with everything.
“When we first started looking into the Kowloon Walled City, also known as the densest city in the world, we thought for a place that’s essentially a slum full of crime and drugs, with subhuman living conditions, there sure is a lot of romanticization about this place.”
“The city looks like it came straight out of a dystopian sci-fi novel.”
“It’s a giant megastructure part architecture, part living organism, and it’s actually something architects have been dreaming about for years. One continuous structure where you could access all the necessities of daily life but evolves and grows with time.”
New York City has a population density of 11,000 per square kilometer. Kowloon City had a population density of 1,255,000 per square kilometer.
“Kowloon Walled City was a city within Hong Kong that was technically a part of China.” It started as a fort, but after being abandoned Chinese refugees flooded there after World War II.
“It was known as the only Chinese enclave that the Hong Kong government couldn’t touch. But after that, it included anyone and everyone from gangs, criminals to doctors to entrepreneurs, people trying to escape poverty or people trying to capitalize on this unregulated haven.”
“Crime naturally flourished there with gangs, drugs, brothels. If you had an industrial business, you could ignore the fire codes, the labor codes or safety codes So you could produce goods at a fraction of the cost. You could also sell things that were banned anywhere else, like dog meat.”
“With unbeatable prices, industry kind of thrived here and lots of things made in Kowloon Walled City made their way back to China, Hong Kong, and sometimes even overseas. They were known especially for their fish balls and dumplings.”
“in Kowloon, buildings will get built, leaving these small gaps for air and light. But very quickly they get filled in with stairways, which sometimes connect it to three or four buildings. The city of Kowloon had around 350 buildings, but eventually the all merge into this one giant megastructure. The rooftops would connect, forming one giant rooftop, and even the residential units were connected to each other. And since not all the units had electricity or other resources, it allowed them to share things like power out of a single source.”
“It especially allowed businesses to expand strategically and organically.” Such as a strip club that lured people in to make real money in the gambling den a floor down.
“New buildings could attach and be integrated to existing structures. And with every new building, new circulation paths and collection points are formed which evolve and expand with the growth of the city. And at the intersection of these connections or stairs or alleys, nodes would organically merge.”
“Chinese doctors and dentists who couldn’t afford to get relicensed in Hong Kong, set up shop here and offer services for bargain prices, which attracted customers from outside the city.”
Factories gravitated to ground floors with vehicle and water access, while residential went to higher floors. “But most of the residents actually moved through the hundreds of alleys and secret paths, which all twisted and turned and stepped up and down and cut through multiple buildings. So unlike a typical city where you have one point of connection, you had multiple points of connection vertically and horizontally between multiple spaces.”
The hard limits of the city forced it to expand upward and inward.
“Even though they didn’t have a government, the residents self-organized to fix problems as they came up to deal with crime. They formed groups of volunteers to escort single women. And when the Hong Kong government released plans to demolish the city, they organized the Kowloon City Anti Demolition Committee that fought against the plan for years. Even the five Triad gangs organized garbage cleaning teams and helped settle disputes between businesses.”
Kowloon City was demolished in 1994.
At it’s height, Kowloon City was an an example of “spontaneous order” that can arise from the intersection of capitalism and low- or no-regulation environments. But much of its success was based on a rare combination of things, namely its proximity to a huge, thriving, international city, private ownership of land, ethnic homogeneity, and a ready populace of low-wage workers, many of whom had fled communism.
By contrast, Seattle’s antifa “Autonomous Zone” thugocracy had none of these things going for it, and the only industry they brought to the area was shaking down existing businesses for protection money ‘donations.”
I can imagine it both as a place of tremendous economic dynamism as well as someplace I personally would never want to live. Just imagine if you had a factory using deadly chemicals right below you. And I imagine the illegal activity providing a significant portion of Kowloon City’s income.
It was an interesting, unintentional experiment, and I’m sure the vast majority of residents there fared better than they would have under the Great Leap Forward…
When Russia launched its illegal war of territorial aggression against Ukraine in February of 2022, many observers thought western financial sanctions would quickly crash the Russian economy. When Russia was cut out of SWIFT, the Ruble plunged to below a penny against the dollar, but quickly recovered, at least a bit.
Due to various reasons (gas and oil sales, gold transfers, and the many loopholes EU countries have made for their sanctions), Russia’s economy hasn’t collapsed as quickly as many expected, or hoped.
Russia’s central bank called an extraordinary meeting Tuesday after the ruble crashed through the level of 100 to the dollar for the first time since March of last year as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on and international sanctions hit trade.
Policy makers will publish a statement on the key rate at 10:30 a.m. after the meeting, the Bank of Russia said in a statement, without giving any further details. The central bank hiked its key rate by a percentage point to 8.5% last month, the first increase since emergency measures imposed immediately after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The exchange rate has emerged as the barometer of health for an economy battered by shrinking export revenues and its isolation from international financial markets, bringing infighting between the government and central bank into the open.
The ruble reversed losses after the announcement, traded up 1.8% at 97.6625 at 7 p.m. in Moscow. The currency, which had broken through 101 earlier on Monday, has weakened about 27% this year for the third-worst performance in emerging markets. The central bank had sought to arrest the slump by saying it won’t purchase foreign currency on the domestic market for the rest of 2023.
Yeah, no one trusts Russia to hold adequate foreign currency reserves a year and a half into sanctions. So that move doesn’t help.
Lots of meaningless Russian “economy is great” blather snipped.
Revenues of Russian oil and gas exporters declined to $6.9 billion in July from $16.8 billion in the same period last year, according to the latest central bank data. An easing of restrictions on moving money abroad has also led to accelerated capital flight as Russians race to shift funds into foreign accounts.
“The weakening of the ruble is the result of the international screws tightening around the Russian economy, but also the cost of keeping the economy going,” said Erik Meyersson, chief emerging-market strategist at SEB AB in Stockholm. “Nobody wants to hold rubles, and the limited supply of foreign exchange from exporters weighs on the currency.”
Of course, Russia could get out of it’s self-imposed monkey trap by withdrawing its forces from all occupied Ukrainian territory. But I don’t think anyone is hold their breath for that to happen…
I didn’t intend to do an all “China is Screwed” video roundup weekend, but the videos keep stacking up and I need to post some rather than producing a giant unwieldy post with hours of footage.
First up: Young people’s whose job prospects and futures are so dim that they’re actually living in concrete pipes.
Takeaways:
Certainly America has no shortage of transients living rough, but in contrast to ragged drug addicts, alcoholics and dangerous lunatics, the people living in these pipes look to be normal, healthy 20-something Chinese.
Just because you’re living in a concrete pipe doesn’t mean you can’t be a live-streamer. Like the under-the-bridge streamers seen in previous videos, you wonder how widespread this behavior is, or whether we’re just seeing the edge of the freak show.
“Despite the female hosts not being beautiful and the male hosts not handsome, it doesn’t affect viewership.” I do rather want to check their numbers, here.
“This is because it’s happening in the industrial city known as the world’s factory – Dongguan in Guangzhou.” It’s on the Pearl River Delta near Guangzhou and Hong Kong. “After more than thirty years of China’s reform and opening up, Dongguan, which has always been at the forefront of economic development, has recently seen a wave of business closures and foreign capital relocation.” See also: all those previousChina is screwed videos.
“When foreign capital withdraws, thousands of Chinese workers lose their jobs. Among these people, some have worked in factories for decades and are now middle-aged. It’s overwhelming to be suddenly faced with unemployment and consequential cost-of-living pressures, coupled with labor competition against millions of university graduates.” I’m sure that sucks, just like getting laid off here sucks. But in a capitalist economy, even a flawed one like we have, is always going to be more flexible about creating jobs that one ruled by a communist party’s aristocracy of pull.
“Those who are single simply adapt to homelessness, creating their own personal space amongst the concrete pipes.” Or, you could have, you know, lived modestly, saved money, and shared housing with other people. The fact they haven’t gone this route and are instead living in pipes suggests something in the Chinese economy is even more broken than we think.
Foreign companies like Microsoft and Nokia are now moving to Vietnam and India. “Japanese companies like Panasonic, Daikin, Sharp, and TDK are planning to move their manufacturing bases back to Japan. Well-known companies like Uniqlo, Nike, Funai Electric, Samsung, and others are also accelerating their withdrawal from China.”
Like industry is also fleeing from elsewhere in China.
“The once bustling Bund in Shanghai is now overgrown with weeds due to lack of maintenance and tourism, presenting a scene of desolation. Everywhere in Shanghai’s luxury residential communities, there are messages about subleasing and selling at a loss. The elites, celebrities, and tycoons left Shanghai at the first chance they got after the lifting of the lockdown. The political uncertainty in China and the frequent changes in regulatory clauses by the authorities have made entrepreneurs miserable.” Communists making entrepreneurs miserable? This is my shocked face.
“Domestic entrepreneurs are reluctant to invest further, and foreign investors are hastening their departure.”
Various Chinese company specific layoffs and financial difficulties snipped.
“Wall Street leading figures, after enjoying three years of benefits from the broad opening of China’s financial market, are planning large-scale cuts to projects and staff in China…Goldman Sachs has lowered its five-year plan expectations, and Morgan Stanley has decided not to set up a securities dealer in China, reducing its derivative and futures business investment to $150 million. JPMorgan Chase & Co. began cutting its dedicated staff in China earlier this year.” There’s not a violin small enough.
In a capitalist economy, there would be some sort of middle ground between the empty ghost cities and people living in pipes near megalopolises. If you don’t regulate the economy so heavily as to make building housing impossible (I’m looking at you, California and NYC), then profit will drive developers to create housing to fill a market need. With China’s crazy misallocation of loans to unprofitable housing to satisfy regional government growth targets, supply has been so severed from demand that such market-making is impossible.
China is going to come out of it’s decades-long growth spurt with crumbling cities and people that mostly are still poor.
I have a whole host of “China is Screwed” videos I’ve gathered to post, but haven’t had the time to properly queue them up. So here’s a big picture piece from Peter Zeihan on China’s immediate economic foe: deflation.
“They never really recovered from Covid.” Aw. My heart bleeds.
“Growth is actually lower now than it was over the course of the last two years when they were supposedly under complete lockdown.”
“Consumption is down. Imports and exports both dropped in July compared to a year earlier by double digits of percentages. Normally the sort of stuff you only see out of a country like, say, Ukraine or Russia when a war starts.”
“We saw a demographic bomb go off in China before Covid. going back to as early as 2017, the demographics really turned negative from 2017 to 2021. The birth rate dropped by about 40%.”
“We’ve had all of these trends with four, five, six, years behind them, and as they’re manifesting in a more normal environment, the numbers are really, really, really bad.”
A whole lot of that is due to the One Child Policy.
Problem two: Deflation. The rest of the world suffered inflation when the lockdowns ended.
“The consumption boom never happened, so supply chains never had to adjust. What has happened is people are less confident in their future, so they’re consuming less.”
“We’re seeing mounting trade wars out of Europe, Japan, the United States, and increasingly secondary states like the Koreans are joining in. And that means the Chinese have fewer places to send stuff.”
“Product that was normally produced for export from China is now being locked up within the Chinese system at the same time that the population is purchasing less. You have an oversupply of goods and an under demand, both at home and abroad. With all those extra goods prices go down, and you get deflation.”
“This is what you would expect when you’re at the beginning of a deflationary spiral that’s caused by a fundamental mismatch between supply and demand, which is where we are going with deglobalization and the Chinese demographic. Trends which are now well past the point of no return.”
Japan’s deflationary spiral lasted 20-25 years.
Deflationary spirals are very hard to pull out of.
“The Chinese economic system isn’t really based on exports or consumption, it’s based on investment, the idea that the state fosters mass borrowing in order to build industrial plant infrastructure. Based on whose numbers you’re using, those are somewhere between 40-70% of the entirety of the Chinese economy, and has generated the vast majority of economic growth.”
“You can only do that for so long. Eventually you don’t need any more bridges, or any more factories, and I would argue the Chinese reached that point before Covid. Again, there’s been this three, four year lag between reality and the data finally manifesting.”
More spending won’t help.
“The amount of growth they get for every Yuan spent has been dropping steadily for 40 years, and now it’s in far less than one to one. So it really doesn’t matter how much more fuel and how much cheap capital the Chinese pump into the system, it’s never going to generate more economic activity than what it costs to put it in the first place.”
There’s a difference between “young and naive” and “young and stupidly naive.”
Today’s college jkids thinking they’re automatically going to make six-figure salaries thanks to their college degrees is the latter. Let’s look at this clip from Dave Ramsey’s show:
“Current college students expect to…a hundred and three thousand eight hundred and eighty dollars in their first job.”
“Yeah, that’s a problem.”
“I interviewed a bunch of high schoolers, and when I talked to them, they all were, like, ‘Well, yeah, I’m gonna make six figures when I graduate,’ and I was like ‘What makes you think that,’ right? There’s no reality.”
“They are way overestimating their starting salaries.”
I’ll never forget a college prep after school program I was in during high school. They were supposed to be telling us how to fill out applications and talking about student loans. The instructors actually said that you won’t need to pay off your student loans; they don’t expect you to. When I told my dad that, he pulled me out of there immediately.
Can you earn six figures right out college? Potentially…if you’re getting a highly technical degree (Chemical Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Computer Science, etc.) and you already have demonstrable mastery of some highly technical skills. Say, you’re getting a CS degree and you already know C and JavaScript, and you have multiple projects on GitHub that demonstrate coding ability, and maybe a desirable technical cert or two, then yes, a six figure salary right out of school is certainly possible.
But if you have a Liberal Arts degree? No. Not unless your last name is “Clinton” or “Biden.”
People who have told kids “Hey, you can party for four years, get a degree, waltz into a six figure salary and have the government forgive your student debt” have done them a grave disservice. Life is hard, and earning a living is work. I worked a lot of crappy jobs immediately after college (retail sales, phone sales) before bootstrapping my way into a technical writing career. (It didn’t help that I’m a smart ass.) There were a lot of post-college roommates, cheap used cars, and pasta, rice and ramen meals along the way.
Earning a college degree does not hand you a “Get Out Of Poverty Free” card, it only gives you a chance to get out of poverty, and not a very good one if you’re dragging a ton of student debt behind. The best way to avoid the boat anchor of student debt is to avoid taking out student debt. And there are a whole lot of decent paying trade jobs out there (welder, plumber, electrician, HVAC, etc.) that don’t require college degrees to get your foot in the door.
College graduates need to avoid the debt trap of a lavish lifestyle. Live modestly, pay off your debts, and build wealth. And realize that it may be many years (if ever) before you’re pulling down a six-figure income.
I’ve covered Peter Zeihan videos on China’s crashing demographics before. We already knew China was “the fastest aging society in human history, with the largest sex imbalance in human history.” Now he’s dug into new some new data.
It’s much worse than he thought.
“We’ve gotten some new data out of the Chinese that has made it way to the U.N, and so the updates have allowed us to update our assessment, and oh my God, it’s bad.”
“Here is the new data, and as you can see, the number of children who are under age 5 has just collapsed, and they’re now roughly twice as many that are age 15 as age 5.”
“What happened back in 2017, well before Covid, is that we had a sudden collapse in the birth rate, roughly 40% over the next five years among the Chinese, the ethnic Han population, and more than 50 percent among a lot of the minorities. And that is before Covid, which saw anecdotally the birth rate drops considerably more.”
“We’re never going to get good data on death rate, or at least not anytime soon, because the Chinese, when they did the reopening, just stopped collecting the data on deaths and Covid and everything because they didn’t want the world to know how many Chinese died, so they don’t know.”
And if you look at the data from the Shanghai Academy of Science, it’s even worse than the official state numbers.
“China aged past the point of demographic no return over 20 years, ago and it wasn’t just this year that India became the world’s most populous country, that probably happened roughly a decade ago. And it wasn’t in 2018 that the average Chinese aged past the average American, that was probably roughly in 2007 or 2008.”
“This is not a country that is in demographic decay, this is a country that is in the advanced stages of demographic collapse. And this is going to be the final decade that China can exist as a modern industrialized nation state, because it simply isn’t going to have the people to even try.”
“Labor costs you’re having now or as low as they’re ever going to be. Consumption is as high as it’s ever going to be.”
“So even before you consider the political complications or issues with operating environment or energy access or geopolitical risk or regulational risk, the numbers just aren’t there anymore so you have to ask yourself why you’re still there.”
Add to that the fact that China economy is probably overstated by 60%, and it looks like China’s brief days in the sun are already over.
